对当前和今后一个时期我国注册会计师事业发展的若干思考——国办56号文件发布一周年有感

本文认为,在当前和今后一个时期,全面贯彻国办56号文件精神要牢牢把握重点扶持大型会计师事务所加快发展、积极促进中型会计师事务所健康发展、科学引导小型会计师事务所规范发展这三条主线,认真抓好法规完善、做大做强、推进转制、行政审批、分类监管、业务拓展、系统建设、国际合作、战略研究、经验交流等十方面的重点工作,同时进一步夯实五大支柱,即人才为本、法制为基、准则为要、理论为先、信息化为支撑。     

《庄子内篇》句末语气词分析

在先秦的诸子散文中,句末语气词使用的频率很高,本文针对《庄子》的内篇(共七篇)的句末语气词进行分析,总结其中的规律和特点。语气词放在句子末尾,通常表示语音停顿,同时根据所处的位置不同,配合上下文,表示判断、陈述、感叹、疑问等各种语气。     

未来五年的十大经济趋势

对于宏观分析来说,一方面需要对短周期密切跟踪,捕捉宏观变量变化对于资产价格的边际影响;另一方面也需要对中长期趋势进行判断,因为它往往更深刻地影响资产定价环境。文章从中国经济增速、第三产业、基建、城市化主线、消费结构、行业集中度、就业与劳动力成本、市场新红利、利率趋势、居民资产配置等方面,勾勒了未来5年的十大经济趋势。     

内部控制自我评价在宝钢的运用

内部控制自我评价是新兴的审计技术和方法, 在西方发达国家公司内部控制管理领域被广泛运用。本文以中国航油 (新加坡) 的暴仓事件为反面案例, 对内部控制自我评价的理论背景和基本特征进行介绍, 并着重介绍了这一方法在上海宝钢国际经济贸易有限公司的实施, 以及笔者在具体实施后的一些思考。     

审计人员思想方法影响因素研究

思想方法是人们认识事物和研究问题最为根本的思维方式,对于人们的实践过程具有深远的影响。本研究基于已有研究文献,应用心理学、社会学、哲学等学科相关理论分析分别找出影响审计人员思想方法的主观因素和客观因素,其中主观因素包括认知维度、情感维度、价值维度和意志维度,客观因素包括个体先天因素、生理心理特征、认知水平和知识结构、个体经历经验、文化环境、经济环境和制度环境、个体岗位和职级。实证研究结果发现,主观因素中的认知维度、情感维度、价值维度、意志维度对审计人员的思想方法具有显著性影响,而客观因素中仅有认知水平和知识结构、个体经历经验、个体岗位和职级对审计人员的思想方法具有显著性影响。     

道德风险:国有商业银行转型的困扰与挑战

在金融业中,与其他风险相比,道德风险最难控制。从披露的典型案例看,当前国有商业银行道德风险呈“长期交易、权力寻租、上下皆为、内外勾结、损失惊人”五大特征,其成因除了产权制度缺陷、治理结构失衡、激励机制扭曲、约束体系软弱、考核制度异化之外,由银行改制转型引起的文化缺失、心理恐慌、财务重组等则进一步加剧了道德风险。为此,必须遵循“由易到难、由表及里、由下而上、由形入神、由内向外、由近至远”六大原则,从完善治理机制、创新激励手段、培育治理文化、注重外部治理和重构股权结构等方面入手,积极探索抑制国有商业银行道德风险的有效方法与路径。     

Financial & economic review

Statement by HM Treasury on the 1982 Pay Claim by the Council of Civil Service Unions HM Treasury, London, 1982, free

Budgetary Reform Sixth Report from the Treasury and Civil Service Committee, Session 1981/82, House of Commons Paper 137, HMSO, London, 1982, £10.90

The Roads Programme and the Transport Aspects of the 1982 Public Expenditure White Paper Fourth Report from the Transport Committee, Session 1981/82, House of Commons Paper 334, HMSO, London, 1982, £4.80

Public Expenditure on the Social Services Second Report from the Social Services Committee, Session 1981/82, House of Commons Paper 306–1, Volume I, HMSO, London, 1982, £4.35

Public Expenditure on the Social Services Second Report from the Social Services Committee, Session 1981/82, House of Commons Paper 306–11, Volume II, HMSO, London, 1982, £10.60

Financing of the Nationalised Industries Eighth Report from the Treasury and Civil Service Committee, Session 1980/81, House of Commons Paper 348‐II, HMSO, London, 1981, £9.15

Budgetary Reform Sixth Report from the Treasury and Civil Service Committee, Session 1981/82, House of Commons Paper 137, HMSO, London, 1982, £10.90     

Value relevance of banks: global evidence

Using 28,785 observations of 813 banking institutions in 38 countries during the 1993–2004 period, this study investigates among others, the role of transparency, accounting standards, legal, financing, corporate, and banking environments at the country level and size, risk, and organization form at the bank-specific level affecting the extent of value relevance. The evidence indicates that at the macro-level, the extent of mandated accounting disclosure, differences in accounting measurement practices, and type of legal environment, were the most influencing factors affecting the extent of value relevance of earnings and book values. At the bank-level, the organizational form and risk had the most impact.     

网上银行客户体验评价研究

以网上银行用户调查问卷为实证样本,估计了感官、情感、思考、行动、关联各方面影响因素对网上银行全面体验的影响程度。结果表明：感官体验中网上银行的画面舒适感和易浏览性、思考体验中网站使客户产生联想和产品激发客户好奇心的能力、行动体验中网站的促行动力对网上银行全面体验解释程度较低;情感体验中的积极情绪、行动体验中网站使用的顺利操作性、关联体验中的互动性对网上银行全面体验解释程度较高。     

政府信用内涵与我国政务诚信建设的路径选择

在全面实施依法治国、政府职能转变和建设服务型政府的背景下,从政务诚信建设角度出发,比较分析信息社会中的广义信用、政府信用、政务诚信,提出"政府信用"是由一国的社会制度、治理方式所决定的,国家发展方向和道路是"政府信用"是否牢靠的根本因素;"政务诚信"是由各级政务主体的行为所构成,是社会主体评判政务可信度的凭证和依据。通过对政务诚信建设的重点进行梳理,对信息社会中政府定位和职能转变、政务诚信管理系统建设和政务诚信评价等问题进行了阐述;在此基础上提出当前我国政务诚信建设应以分步实施、注重创新和实事求是为原则,重点加强政务公开、行政履职、勤政廉政、依法行政、政务创新和失信管理等工作。     

中国农村普惠金融发展的差异分析——以中部六省为例

在对普惠金融发展指数测量方法改良的基础上,对中部六省2005~2013年的普惠金融发展水平进行测度。研究发现,2005~2013年的近十年间,中部六省的农村普惠金融发展水平都有所提高,且各省普惠金融发展指数都没有出现0值的情况。从总体上来看,2005~2013年,湖南的农村普惠金融发展水平处于中部六省当中的最高水平,其次是山西、湖北、安徽、江西、河南,但河南在中部六省的普惠金融发展水平增长速度最快。从分析中部六省农村普惠金融发展水平差异的原因看：农村人均收入、农村金融机构服务数量、农村金融基础设施、普惠金融政策、当地信用环境等是造成六省普惠金融发展水平差异的重要原因。     

Interpreting long-horizon estimates in predictive regressions

This paper analyzes the asymptotic properties of long-horizon estimators under both the null hypothesis and an alternative of predictability. Asymptotically, under the null of no predictability, the long-run estimator is an increasing deterministic function of the short-run estimate and the forecasting horizon. Under the alternative of predictability, the conditional distribution of the long-run estimator, given the short-run estimate, is no longer degenerate and the expected pattern of coefficient estimates across horizons differs from that under the null. Importantly, however, under the alternative, highly endogenous regressors, such as the dividend–price ratio, tend to deviate much less than exogenous regressors, such as the short interest rate, from the pattern expected under the null, making it more difficult to distinguish between the null and the alternative.     

资管新规延期的原因及对策研究

资管新规的延期有利于处置存量资产,有助于减轻银行表内压力,有利于降低信用风险爆发概率,有利于平滑理财产品收益,也有助于实体经济应对疫情冲击。但是资管新规延期后,仍然面临着存量资产处置难、新产品发行接受度不高、机构转型动力不足等问题。为了避免资管新规一延再延,维护政策的严肃性、权威性,监管部门应提出退出路径、加强预期管理、明确奖惩措施、统一监管规则,并实行宽严相济、灵活有度的政策,保证资产管理行业转型真正落地生效。     

金融危机冲击、企业风险缓冲与政府政策选择

为什么金融危机冲击会给不同企业带来不同的经济后果,甚至是不同的命运?本文基于"外部冲击→企业缓冲能力→经济后果"的视角构建了企业风险缓冲机制的一般分析框架。在此基础上,我们认为,金融危机给企业带来的冲击可以概括为业绩下降(对应于产品市场恶化)和现金流短缺(对应于融资市场恶化)两个方面;微观层面上,金融危机下,影响企业风险缓冲能力的因素包括企业资本结构、资产结构、成本结构、高管背景与政治关联、政府干预程度等因素,企业应通过调整和优化上述因素应对外部冲击;宏观层面上,我们认为,可以考虑通过合理选择政府投资领域、企业打包贷款、设立中小企业基金、改变税收减免方式、促进企业资金周转等方式缓解企业的外部冲击。     

老龄危机背景下我国长期护理保险制度试点方案的比较与思考

通过梳理15个试点地区长期护理保险制度的实施方案,对参保对象、基金来源、给付对象、评定依据、服务项目、服务形式以及待遇支付等进行比较分析。以老龄危机为背景,深入思考与探讨长期护理保险制度参保对象的覆盖、给付对象的界定、筹资主体的确定、保障内容的提供等问题,同时提出了针对性建议:参保对象应延伸至农村;给付对象暂定为重度失能失智老年参保者;筹资主体做到真正多元化;服务项目以生活照料为主;待遇水平体现出对居家护理的支持;给付形式引入现金给付。     

论美国证券法中“其他证券”的界定——规则演变及相互关系

在美国证券法中,Howey规则、Reves规则分别是判断投资合同和金融票证的判例法规则。Howey规则的适用,需要同时满足“包含金钱投资的计划”“共同利益体”“获利期望”和“利润完全来自他人的努力”这四个构成要件。Reves规则的核心内容是家族相似性规则,该规则需要考量的因素有“买卖双方的动机”“分配计划”“投资者的合理预期”和“是否存在其他风险防范或救济措施”。家族相似性规则虽然与Howey规则的内容有重合,但是二者的判定逻辑截然不同,由此决定了Howey规则和Reves规则之间不具有替代性。     

民间借贷与非法集资交叉案件裁判研究

民间借贷发轫于民间,其建立在个体信用基础之上,这种基于血缘、亲缘、地缘、业缘关系的个体信用容易监督,具有稳定性但不具有成长性。非法集资是以非法占有为目的,以虚构事实、隐瞒真相、虚假宣传的欺骗方法向不特定社会公众集资的犯罪行为。在我国,非法吸收公众存款、集资诈骗、高利转贷等相关联罪名均被列入非法集资。民间借贷与非法吸收公众存款、集资诈骗等刑事纠纷交织在一起,使当事人之间法律关系的性质难以准确判断,因此,民间借贷和非法集资刑民交叉案件成为司法实践中的＂疑难杂症＂,回答这个现实问题,会受到如金融机构、市场、监管机构、公安机关、司法裁判机构等一系列因素的影响。本文从交叉案件现象、交叉案件实体法律关系研究、交叉案件程序处理方式研究、交叉案件裁判研究四方面展开,归纳民间借贷和非法集资刑民交叉案件的法律要点和裁判要旨,形成判断罪与非罪、罪轻与罪重的司法指引。     

Macroeconomic impact of the Sino–U.S. trade frictions: Based on a two-country,two-sector DSGE model

To examine the impact of the recent Sino–U.S. trade frictions on the macroeconomics of China and the United States, we constructed a two-country, two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. This model was used to explore the tariff transmission mechanism in such trade frictions and provide a basic analytical framework for future research on bilateral trade frictions. Based on our benchmark analysis, the tariff shocks affect non-tradable sectors through the tradable sectors, which, in turn, have impacted consumption, investments, prices, and production. Specifically, the tariffs on intermediate and final goods affect the economy from the supply and demand sides, respectively, and as the trade dependence decreases, the economic volatility caused by the tariff shocks also decreases. Moreover, our simulation showed that the impact of the trade frictions on the macroeconomics of the two countries has been asymmetrical, which is consistent with the objective economic realities.     

Structure and evolution of the greenfield FDI network along the belt and road

Using bilateral greenfield investment projects data from 2003 to 2019 collected from fDi Markets, this study constructed the greenfield foreign direct investment networks along the Belt and Road (BR-GFNs). Based on a social network analysis, we investigated the structure of BR-GFNs at three levels. At the overall level, the BR-GFNs are characterized by small-world, reciprocity, and robustness. At the community level, the BR-GFNs form three communities: the east, south, and west. Lastly, at the national level, China, Russia, India, and Turkey occupy important positions in BR-GFNs, with relatively high resource control abilities. Moreover, we applied the quadratic assignment procedure to investigate the factors affecting the structural formation of the BR-GFNs. The results show that countries with less geographical, institutional, economic, and cultural distance, higher political affinity, and possibility of signing bilateral investment treaties are more likely to establish cross-border greenfield investments.     

Competition in Lending: Theory and Experiments*

A variation of the Rothschild-Stiglitz’ equilibrium is examined in the context of competitive lending under adverse selection. The predictions of the model are tested in an experimental market setting. If equilibrium exists, the loan contracts offered and taken should separate projects by quality. When equilibrium exists, the experiments confirm the theory. The entrepreneurs with high-risk projects take bigger loans and pay higher credit spreads than those with low-risk projects. When equilibrium does not exist, which happens exactly when the candidate equilibrium does not provide a Pareto-optimal allocation, in half of the sessions loan trading stabilizes around the candidate equilibrium pair. In the other half, however, markets never settle down. This finding has important implications. When lenders can offer menus of contracts, as is usually the case in reality, the outcome may not be the zero-profit separating contracts of the standard model. Worse, fitting the standard model to field data may lead to serious biases in estimated parameters while falsely accepting the model’s main restriction (separation). *The financial support of the Division of Humanities and Social Sciences at Caltech is gratefully acknowledged. I would like to thank Charles Plott, Thomas Palfrey, Bill Zame, Mike Lemmon, as well as the seminar participants at Caltech, UCSD, Duke, Berkeley, Stanford, University of Utah, Columbia, Georgia State University, Tulane, University of Houston, and Arizona State University for helpful comments, and the staff of EEPS, SSEL, and CASSEL for their help in running the experiments. I am especially grateful to my advisor and mentor Peter Bossaerts for his guidance and encouragement. All errors are my own.