供给侧改革背景下产业集聚与金融扶持研究——以安徽省铜陵市为例

在供给侧改革和“三去一降一补”政策背景下,产业结构调整和转型升级依然是当前面临的重要任务.金融资源配置会对经济运行和微观企业的运行产生重大影响,产业结构的优化升级也离不开金融的支持与协同发展.以安徽省铜陵市为例,分析铜产业的产业集聚、金融集聚的形成以及金融支持铜产业转型升级面临的主要瓶颈,最后提出金融集聚与铜产业升级的路径和对策建议.     

供给侧改革背景下政府引导基金的机制研究

随着经济发展进入"新常态",我国迫切需要改善供给侧环境,优化供给侧机制,增强我国经济长期稳定发展的新动力.政府引导基金带动社会资本支持战略性新兴企业发展,促进我国产业结构优化升级.本文首先简要介绍了政府引导基金的情况,分析了引导基金对供给侧改革的促进作用,其次简略描述了引导基金运作机制模式,指出了其发展的现存问题,最后对改善引导基金运作机制提出了相关的对策建议.     

金融支持滨海新区产业结构优化研究

转变经济发展方式,实现产业结构优化升级,是当前滨海新区乃至我国经济社会持续发展的支撑与动力。金融支持产业结构优化的作用机制主要在于金融体系通过资本供给和资本配置体制,发挥金融功能,促进产业结构合理化和高级化,进而推动产业结构优化。本文在阐述金融支持产业结构优化的依据及作用机制基础上,分析了滨海新区金融支持产业结构优化的状况,最后提出提升金融支持产业结构优化力度的几点建议。     

浅议河北产业结构优化升级中的金融支持

“十二五”期间是河北省产业结构优化升级的重要战略机遇期,金融发展成为加快河北产业结构优化升级的重要途径.文章从河北省产业结构的现状和优化升级思路出发,分析了金融支持河北产业结构优化升级面临的问题,提出了金融支持河北产业结构优化升级的对策建议.     

广西产业结构与金融结构互动关系研究

本文对广西产业结构和金融结构发展情况进行比较,对金融在广西产业结构调整中的积极作用进行定性分析,并通过构建VAR模型对广西金融发展与产业结构升级优化进行实证研究,结果显示广西金融发展对产业化水平的提高及产业结构升级支持效果较为显著,但产业结构优化升级过程中对金融业发展的推动作用还不显著,经济金融之间的良性互动效应有待加强.文章对金融支持广西产业结构升级提出有针对性的建议.     

创新驱动阶段金融发展与产业结构升级的互动与协调关系研究——以天津市为例

本文从理论上分析了金融发展与产业结构升级的耦合协调机理,通过构建两者相应的指标体系,测算了天津2000-2015年间金融发展与产业结构升级的耦合协调度.结果显示:天津金融发展与产业结构升级的耦合协调度整体呈先降后升的趋势,在2005年出现拐点,目前已处于中度协调阶段,且两者的协调演化过程经历了波动下降和波动上升两个阶段.在此基础上,本文分析了协调度波动变化的原因,主要在于金融发展系统和产业结构系统的综合贡献值呈波动调整的动态变化趋势.因此,推动金融发展和产业结构升级的互动,不能单纯地依靠金融扩张和产业结构的升级,更重要的是提高资本配置效率,找到一条适合金融发展与产业结构升级互动的路径和方式,促进两者的协同发展.     

供给侧结构性改革下的商业银行信贷策略研究 ——以河北省商业银行为例

当前河北省需求拉动经济增长不足,产业结构偏重,环境污染问题突出,加快供给侧改革是一个长期的艰巨任务.商业银行面临着信贷资产质量管控的严峻挑战,同时也面临优化信贷结构、拓展新产业与新市场等机遇.供给侧改革背景下商业银行应严格防范产能过剩行业、房地产业与小微企业贷款风险,创新盘活存量贷款,加大对高端装备制造业、"双创"等领域的金融支持,发展绿色金融与普惠金融,重塑新常态下健康审慎而富有竞争力的信贷文化.     

供给侧改革背景下金融统计体系改革初探

供给侧改革是当前乃至今后较长一段时间我国社会经济发展的主旋律。金融支持供给侧改革,即充分发挥各类金融机构在社会经济发展中资金供给的主体作用,优化金融资源配置,推动各项改革并培育新的经济增长动力和构建新的经济增长平台,为供给侧改革提供强有力的金融支持,实现中国经济平滑增速换挡。在此背景下,为精准统计和分析金融资源流向及价格水平,客观评估各项改革成效,为宏观金融调控政策的决策提供信息支撑,必须适应改革发展的新要求对金融统计体系进行相应的改革创新。     

河北省经济金融形势分析及展望

2018年河北省经济运行稳中有进,产业结构趋优,转型升级成效明显,质量效益稳步提高,供给侧结构性改革扎实推进,重大战略全面拓展,较好地完成了经济社会发展的预期目标。金融运行稳健,贷款结构优化,金融支持实体经济特别是薄弱环节力度加大。但经济金融发展中仍存在内生动力不强的问题,风险防控形势严峻,贸易摩擦、房地产市场降温等倾向性问题需高度关注。预计2019年河北省经济增长稳定在合理区间,金融运行保持稳健。     

金融结构变化对产业结构升级影响的实证研究——以广东省为例

产业结构升级是经济结构调整和产业发展的重要内容,而金融是现代经济的核心。大部分研究理论上均认同金融结构转变对产业结构升级有支持作用。利用ECM模型对广东金融结构和产业结构升级相关关系进行了实证分析,分析表明,金融结构转变并不完全支持产业结构的优化升级,文章分析了原因,并提出了金融协调产业发展的政策建议。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.