直接投资负面清单管理研究

负面清单是国际投资协定中采用的重要的准入制度.2009年国家外汇管理局提出外汇管理理念和方式的"五个转变",其中之一是从"正面清单"转向"负面清单",使得外汇管理进一步与现代法治精神相吻合,负面清单式的外汇管理模式是未来发展方向之一.本文介绍了负面清单的相关理论、在我国的应用实践,分析了适合我国直接投资外汇管理的负面清单模式,提出应用建议.     

对标CPTPP完善海南自贸港金融开放负面清单

负面清单是当前国际高水平经贸规则下普遍采取的开放模式,随着《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(以下简称RCEP)生效以及我国正式申请加入《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(以下简称CPTPP),我国金融业开放逐渐呈现从正面清单向负面清单转变的趋势。海南自贸港承担着我国高水平开放压力测试的重要职责,本文通过对比分析海南自贸港金融开放负面清单与CPTPP金融负面清单情况,指出问题与不足,提出相应政策建议。     

负面清单视角下自贸试验区金融市场开放度研究——基于频数法的分析

金融业作为自贸试验区的子市场,扩大金融开放是自贸试验区"先行先试"的重要内容之一.本文以自贸试验区各版本负面清单为研究样本,利用频数法全面分析金融市场开放度,限制措施是自贸试验区负面清单的主要内容,自贸试验区金融市场准入度大幅提升、自贸试验区金融业年均开放度提升较为均衡、自贸试验区金融业采取梯度开放模式的研究结论,并提出加强国内监管机构金融治理能力,完善金融服务贸易统计数据,推进资本项目开放,强化负面清单系统性研究,提升金融业国际经贸谈判能力的建议.     

引入负面清单管理创新供应商市场准入

《中华人民共和国政府采购法》颁布至今,经过十多年的发展,实现了从制度探索、全面推行试点到法制化管理三个阶段的历史性跨越,但问题也随之凸显。供应商作为政府采购当事人之一,其重要性不言而喻,所以如何选择符合条件的供应商也是整个政府采购活动重要的一环。但是目前,我国对于供应商的市场准入制度尚未建立,本文作者从上海自由贸易区试行的负面清单管理模式中得到启示,认为关于供应商的市场准入制度,可以引进负面清单管理制度,一方面使政府采购各方当事人的利益最大化,另一方面使得我国政府采购制度取得实质性进展。本文首先阐述负面清单管理制度的内涵,接着详细论述了将负面清单管理制度引进我国政府采购领域的意义,最后论述了将此制度引入我国政府采购领域的可能性以及具体方法。     

负面清单是政府“责任单”

<正>被简称为"负面清单"的外商投资准入特别管理措施或许是让关注上海自贸区的人最为纠结的一部分。根据总体方案,自贸区内实施"准入前国民待遇+负面清单"管理试点。其中,负面清单的内容被认为是此次自贸区管理体制改革的关键点。负面清单的内容包括中国在自贸区内暂时无法开放的领域。负面清单内投资按原有办法     

自贸区2014版负面清单的瘦身逻辑

2014版负面清单仍是一种过渡性清单，“有些领域的开放需要与国家的大的谈判战略步调一致起来，作为谈判筹码。而相当一部分的内容主要集中在制造业，仍然有进一步开放的空间。”     

负面清单对我国经济的影响探析——以上海自贸区为例

2013年9月29日,上海自由贸易实验区正式挂牌成立。上海自贸区的创建引发了我国经济界对负面清单管理模式的极大关注与思考,而对于负面清单科学运用与把握将对我国整个经济的发展产生重大而深远的影响。本文以上海自贸区为例,立足于负面清单管理模式的产生与使用状况,简要分析负面清单管理模式的推广可能给我国经济发展带来的影响。     

负面清单模式的法律问题研究

探索负面清单模式是我国外商投资领域深化体制改革的一个重大方面,同时也是上海自贸试验区的一大亮点。负面清单模式的全面实行,无疑会对我国的对外开放提出新的挑战和要求,上海自贸试验区的试行和发展也会对我国下一步改革提供样本和蓝图,因此,在探索该模式的进程中应注意的法律问题需要认真思考和总结。     

中国外资安全审查的路径选择——基于国际外资安全审查的比较

<正>随着准入前国民待遇和负面清单准入模式的推进实施,"非禁即入"将成为我国外商投资管理模式的新常态,外资对国家安全(经济安全)的直接威胁(潜在威胁)也随之增加,并引起了人们的极大关注。随着准入前国民待遇和负面清单准入模式的推进实施,"非禁即入"将成为我国外商投资管理模式的新常态,外资对国家安全(经济安全)的直接威胁(潜在威胁)也     

上海自贸区看些什么？

“自贸区的改革绝不仅仅是一个自由金融试验区的改革,它是包含贸易、投资、金融、行政管理各个领域,其核心在于重新定义政府与市场的关系。正如李克强总理在夏季达沃斯会议上所总结的,‘（在上海自贸区）探索负面清单管理模式,重点在投资准入、服务贸易领域扩大开放方面探索经验’”——摩根大通中国首席经济学家朱海斌     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.