中国银行业生产率变动及对实体经济的影响

将中国银行业置于25个国家(地区)120家银行之中,利用DEA-Malmquist模型考察了2007—2013年中国银行业和世界银行业的生产效率。结果显示:虽然2007年全球金融危机后中国银行业的生产效率有了较大程度的提升,但仍低于世界平均水平。基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析结果表明:中国银行业生产效率的提高能够刺激固定资产投资增加和GDP增长;与产出法相比,收支法下银行业效率的增长对实体经济的影响更大。指出:目前中国银行业的生产效率仍有提升空间;鉴于基于盈利能力的效率提升更能促进中国实体经济的发展,未来需要进一步谋求中国银行业质量的提升而非规模的简单扩张。     

国外银行业X-效率研究现状及其启示

20世纪90年代以来,由莱本斯泰因提出的X-效率在银行业效率研究中得到了广泛关注;其研究方法与技术不断创新,研究成果也层出不穷,这对我国银行业效率的理论研究和实践应用都有很好的借鉴作用。我国银行业效率的提高,不仅取决于其市场结构的优化、规模经济和范围经济,还取决于银行业内部各要素的合理配置及其激励。     

Sources of Australian Labour Productivity Change 1950–1994

This study examines sources of Australian labour productivity change from 1950 to 1994. Time-series data are used to estimate a model capturing the interaction between labour productivity, fixed capital, human capital, telecommunications, trade openness and international competitiveness. Attention is given to the time-series properties of these data. ADF tests for unit roots are employed, and the sensitivity of the tests to non-linear transformations and structural breaks are considered. Estimates suggest that policies that promote investment, economic integration and international competitiveness will improve short-run labour productivity. In the long run, fixed capital accumulation is the dominant source of productivity improvement.     

Information Technology and Productivity Changes in the Banking Industry

This paper analyses the effects of investment in information technologies (IT) in the financial sector using micro-data from a panel of 600 Italian banks over the period 1989–2000. Stochastic cost and profit functions are estimated allowing for individual banks' displacements from the best practice frontier and for non-neutral technological change. The results show that both cost and profit frontier shifts are strongly correlated with IT capital accumulation. Banks adopting IT capital-intensive techniques are also more efficient. On the whole, over the past decade IT capital-deepening contribution to total factor productivity growth of the Italian banking industry can be estimated in a range between 1.3 and 1.8 per cent per year.     

Productivity Trends in Australian and New Zealand Manufacturing

The purpose of this article is to study relative trends in total factor productivity (TFP) between the Australian and New Zealand manufacturing sectors from 1986 to 1996. Since 1984 both economies have undergone major structural changes with varying degrees of speed and intensity. We use the Malmquist index to measure TFP growth and decompose it into an efficiency change and a technical change component. This decomposition provides extra insight on assessing relative productivity trends during a period of economic reform. The results indicate the Australian manufacturing sector exhibits better rates of individual factor productivity performance while multifactor productivity is estimated to be higher in New Zealand manufacturing. TFP growth in New Zealand is driven by technical rather than efficiency change. In fact, the New Zealand manufacturing average rate of efficiency change is estimated to be negative over the sample period.     

Australian Banking Efficiency and Its Relation to Stock Returns

We used Data Envelopment Analysis to evaluate cost efficiency of Australian banks in producing banking services and profit between 1995 and 2002. Empirical results indicate the major banks have improved their efficiency in producing banking services and profit, while the regional banks have experienced little change in the efficiency of producing banking services, and a decline in the efficiency of producing profit. An attempt is made to relate the changes in efficiency to stock returns. Results indicate that for our sample, changes in firm efficiency are reflected in stock returns.     

Total Factor Productivity and Efficiency of Australian Airports

By using a Malmquist total factor productivity index and data envelopment analysis it is possible to investigate the efficiency and productivity of Australian airports during the 1990s. The results from this analysis indicate that these airports recorded strong growth in technological change and total factor productivity, but did not fare all that well in terms of growth in technical and scale efficiency during the 1990s. At the international level it appears that Australia's largest airports fare reasonably well in comparison to airports overseas, although they still possess the potential to realise further gains.     

Technological Change in Australian Manufacturing

In the modern era, the extent and character of technical change features prominently in discussions of productivity growth and movements in the competitiveness of manufacturing. While technical change is pervasive in modern manufacturing, it occurs unevenly. In this study, technical change is estimated by fitting dual cost functions for each of 38 sectors of Australian manufacturing over the 32 year period, 1968–69 to 1999–2000. The estimates show that technical change is heavily labour-saving in all industries, but that the overall rate of change, as measured by a rate of cost diminution, and the degree of bias towards saving labour, rather than capital or material, varies substantially across industries.     

我国台湾地区银行Malmquist生产率指数研究

本文以Malmquist生产率指数评估我国台湾地区34家银行1995~2005年期间生产率变动,研究发现,我国台湾地区银行业生产率在1995~2005年期间有微幅上升趋势,技术进步对于生产率的贡献大于技术效率,技术效率受规模效率提高及纯技术效率下降的影响,只有微弱提高。本文分析其可能存在的原因,并提出我国大陆地区银行可借鉴的一些经验启示。     

Continuity and Change in Australian Wages Policy

Australia shares with several small European economies the characteristic of having a relatively coordinated union movement with the ability to influence real wage levels. This article explores the course of wages policy over the last decade by applying to Australia a model of wage determination originating in Europe, a model which assumes that the union movement can determine the real wage level. The wage level the union movement chooses is influenced by choices it faces between real wage increases and employment growth. The unions are also influenced by the public sector employment generating activity of government. Stagflation in the late 1970s is analysed by hypothesising a misperception by the union movement of the policy options available to government, and a mistrust by government of the unions' willingness to moderate wage increases if employment levels rise rapidly. The model suggests that an accord between unions and government (such as that which has been in place in Australia since 1983) is a way to escape some of these policy dilemmas.     

Ranking Australian Economics Departments by Research Productivity

This study ranks Australian economics departments according to their average research productivity during 1998–2002. The highest ranked departments are those at ANU, JCU, Melbourne, Tasmania and UWA. We also rank departments according to the variability of research productivity among their members, the assumption being that, other things being equal, the less variable is productivity within a department, the better. Research productivity is found to be highly skewed within all departments. However, in general, research productivity is more (less) evenly distributed within those departments that have relatively high (low) average research productivity.     

An Empirical Analysis of Australian Labour Productivity

This study presents a model capturing sources of Australian aggregate labour productivity using annual time series data from 1970 to 2001. Labour productivity, or real output per hour worked, in this model is determined by real net capital stock in information technology and telecommunications (ITT), real net capital stock in the non-ITT sector, trade openness, human capital, the wage rate, international competitiveness, and the union membership rate. Given the lack of long and consistent time series data, multivariate cointegration techniques are inappropriate as the cointegration results will be sensitive to the lag length, the inclusion or exclusion of the intercept term or a trend in the cointegration equation and/or the vector autoregression (VAR) specification. Therefore, the Engle-Granger representation theorem and the Hausman weak exogeneity test have been employed to determine the short and long-term drivers of Australian productivity. Empirical estimates indicate that, in the long-term, policies aimed at promoting various types of investment, trade openness, international competitiveness, and the use of wage as a stimulant in a decentralised wage negotiation system, will improve labour productivity. In the short term, all the above variables except for human capital and labour reforms, which both need more time to evolve, determine productivity performance.     

Models of Labour Services and Estimates of Australian Productivity

This paper examines the manner in which labour services are modelled in the aggregate production function, concentrating on the specification of the relationship between the number of persons employed and average hours worked. We argue that, given the presence of quasi-fixed costs of employment, hours of work and the number of employees cannot be perfect substitutes. We then show that estimates using total hours worked as the measure of labour input implicitly assumes that they are perfect substitutes and this false assumption results, inter alia, in biased estimates of the rate of labour and multifactor productivity growth in Australia.     

Biased Technical Change and the Malmquist Productivity Index

The Malmquist productivity index has many attractive features. One is that it can be epxressed as the product of a technical efficiency change index and a technical change index. In this paper we express the technical change index as the product of a magnitude index and a bias index. We then express the bias index as the product of an output bias index and an input bias index, and we state conditions under which each bias index makes no contribution to productivity change.     

Productivity,Structural Change and Latin American Development

We calibrate a simple neoclassical growth model adapted to illustrate a process of structural transformation or industrialization to a group of nine South American countries. The paper shows that low levels of agricultural productivity can substantially delay the process of industrialization, which, together with low levels of non‐agricultural productivity observed in recent decades, satisfactorily explains the significant differences in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita levels among the countries in our sample. The results suggest that Argentina underwent the process of industrialization first followed by Uruguay, Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay and Bolivia. The model predicts that the ranking of these countries in terms of GDP per capita would follow this order until convergence occurs. The empirical evidence confirms the prediction of the model with the exceptions of Uruguay and Chile which caught up with Argentina in terms of GDP per capita levels in the late 1980s.