以投资基金的重组优势力促江苏经济结构调整──山东省投资基金运作的基本经验及其对江苏的借鉴

一、山东省投资基金运作情况与态势“八五’湖间，山东省国有单位投资中，能源、交通、通信占42％，比全国平均水平高3个百分点，这种倾斜式的资金投入，缓解了“瓶颈”制约，有效地支撑了经济快速发展。以公路建设为例，到1995年，山东全省公路通车里程达54243公里，比198o年净增正893z公里，其中高速公路从无到有，发展到318公里，长度居全国第3位，一级公路从4．6公里增加到1449公里，二级公路从1660公里增加到11768公里，长度均居全国第一。公路密度达34．8公里，基本形成了以省会济南为中心，以国道、省道为骨架，连接省、地、县、乡村…     

云南旅游交通网络空间布局与优化对策

区域旅游产业的快速发展必然以交通作为支撑,合理的旅游交通网络布局能够快速集散客流并提高游客满意度。在分析旅游交通网络内涵的基础上,以云南省为例,对其旅游交通网络现状进行分析,揭示了现有航空、公路及铁路三种旅游交通网络的空间布局特征。从行程距离、时间和费用三个方面分别对云南省旅游交通网络可达性进行量化分析,并提出了具体的旅游交通网络空间布局优化方法。     

映秀黑色旅游客流动力:推拉演变与动态发展

旅游客流动力并不是静止不变的.当以热点事件为特征的黑色旅游开始走向常态时,旅游客流动力也随之演变与发展.文章以四川映秀为案例地,分别于2010年和2016年对映秀黑色旅游者进行问卷调查,通过对调查结果的因子聚类和对比分析,发现经过几年的发展,映秀黑色旅游客流动力已经形成从感性到理性,从推力到拉力的演变.与此同时,新映秀代替大地震成为映秀黑色旅游客流动力的主题,希望通过新映秀获得对地震更全面的认知,正成为映秀黑色旅游客流发展的主要动力.因此,映秀黑色旅游的开发需要根据客流动力的动态变化进行调整与完善.     

城市轨道交通客流预测的评估和抗风险设计

客流预测是城市轨道交通建设的基础性工作,没有客流预测城市的轨道交通建设将无从展开。本文对客流预测的内容、目的和作用;客流预测值的评价要求和应用;客流预测风险的分析和抗风险设计等几个方面进行了探讨。运用客流预测方法和抗风险设计理论,提出了抗风险设计的要求范围。     

皖江城市带区际公路交通空间组织研究

选取与皖江城市带联系密切的长三角16个核心城市和武汉市作为研究对象,通过调研获取皖江城市带各市与这些城市公路客运联系数据,从社会网络视角分析了皖江城市带区际交通联系的网络特征,结合相互作用强度的现状及历年变化,预测皖江城市带区际交通空间组织的发展趋势,为区际交通组织的联系方向提供参考,提出皖江城市带区际交通空间组织的优化建议.结果显示:①皖江城市带与南京市的空间相互作用最强,其次为上海市;从公路客运比例来看,皖江城市带公路客运交通的主导联系方向为长三角方向,其中东向联系更强,东南向(杭州市方向)的联系稍弱.②从皖江城市带区际交通空间组织网络结构特征来看,区际公路客运交通空间组织的网络密度较高,网络结构较松散,联系的主要城市集中于长三角的核心城市.③从东向联系与西向拓展两方面提出了皖江城市带区际交通空间组织的优化方向.     

城镇化推进过程中产业转型升级初探——以萧山瓜沥商贸城规划设计为例

文章以实例探究了城镇化推进过程中产业转型升级, 通过产业业态、客流支持、功能组合 及动静交通、绿化景观多层面分析展开探讨。     

城市轨道交通客流预测浅析

本文针对当前城市轨道交通规划客流预测中存在的问题,分析了目前主流预测模型理论及影响预测精度的原因,对城市的客流预测进行了深层次的思考。     

简析山区公路设计中的注意事项

毋庸置疑，山区公路从设计到施工的过程都很困难。现如今，随着对山区建设的步伐加快，山区公路在设计和施工中遇到的问题也逐渐的显现出来，为了使交通便利，提高山区人民的生活水平，山区公路设计的问题就亟须解决。     

桥梁的检测与加固

随着经济的发展,桥梁作为公路之问的连接,对交通的发展至关重要.但是,在桥梁的使用过程中,由于使用不当、自然环境等原因对桥梁造成了损害,威胁到了通行车辆人员的安全,对当代经济的发展造成了阻碍,因此,对桥梁的检测与加固成为了桥粱建设亟待解决的问题.     

驻马店市机械厂向中外客商敞开大门

河南省驻马店市机械厂系全民中二型企业,国家二级计量合格单位,隶属省机械电子厅,是河南省重点企业之一,黄滩海平原农业综合开发物资生产厂和省烟机公司大修烟机定点企业。 厂址地理位置优越。北距郑州200公里,南距武汉300公里,京广铁路、京深公路贯穿市区,公路网四通八达。交通极为便利。     

中国大陆物流经济联系空间结构实证分析

区域经济联系的强度和方式主要由物流流量大小及其空间结构综合反映。物流经济联系是指区域间通过交通运输设施、通讯设备等物流基础设施，进行物质交流产生的相互联系与作用关系。以全国31个省区(不包括港、澳、台)作为地域研究单元，从实证的角度，通过各省区物流经济联系的基础设施、发展水平的等级差异测度，分析物流经济联系强度大小的省区差异；通过各省区物流经济联系主导类型的定量分析，反映物流经济联系方式的省区差异；通过省区物流中心城市、主要物流联系通道、区际货流联系范围的空间结构特征定量分析，综合反映区域物流经济联系的点、线、面空间特征。     

Trade and transport connectivity: a spatial approach

This article aims to analyse whether transport connectivity affects trade flows using a spatial approach. We consider first-order contiguity and incorporate logistics network structure dependence in a spatial autoregressive model. The results provide evidence regarding the role of the location of logistics platforms for satisfying existing demand for transport structure in Spain.     

Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on global trade flows in gauging international trade developments. We employ a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) trade model, augmented with value-added bilateral trade linkages, that allows for quantifying the effects of economy-specific uncertainty shocks on exports and imports of individual economies. We find substantial spatial propagation in the temporal dynamics of international transmission of shocks amidst the manifestations of cross-border global value chains (GVCs) with China’s accession into the WTO. We provide evidence for the significance of EPU of China and the United States, particularly the latter, in influencing global trade flows. Our results show that while the US impacts can largely be attributed to its indirect trade linkages with other economies, the impacts of China can be relegated more to its direct GVC linkages. The findings have implications on trade protectionist inclinations of the current-term US government and the ongoing efforts of China’s policymakers in steering macroeconomic rebalancing for sustainable growth.     

The propagation of financial turbulence: interdependence,spillovers, and direct and indirect effects

We investigate the propagation of financial turbulence via trade, capital flows, and distance channels in the pre-crisis and Global Financial Crisis periods by modeling spillover and interdependence effects, using spatial econometric techniques. Financial turbulence is proxied by the ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans in a country. Spillover effects are defined as significant changes in the linkages between countries due to a shock, and interdependence effects as strong linkages among pairs of countries independent of shocks. Using annual data of 40 countries from 2003 to 2010, we find that interdependence and spillover effects should be jointly analyzed. Furthermore, our results suggest that the capital flows channel is more important than the other two channels in capturing propagation of financial turbulence. By deriving what is known in the spatial econometrics literature as direct and indirect effect estimates, we show that the marginal effects of macroeconomic variables (like GDP growth, inflation, and credit growth) on financial turbulence take different forms during a crisis than in tranquil periods.     

A scenario analysis of China's land use and land cover change: incorporating biophysical information into input–output modeling

This paper assesses how the widely perceived changes in the economy and society of China will affect future land use at the regional level. It also shows the consequences of these changes on future inter-regional and international trade flows of land-based products. In order to conduct an integrated and consistent assessment, we develop a mixed input–output model characterized by strong biophysical linkages and the incorporation of supply-constraints to the major land-consuming sectors. The spatial aspect of the assessment is provided by a number of fairly large and detailed geographical databases implemented in a geographical information system, including biophysical attributes of land and demographic distribution.     

On the Linkages of the Stock Markets of the NAFTA Countries: Fundamentals or Speculative Bubbles?

We analyze whether the linkages between the stock markets of the NAFTA member countries (Canada, Mexico, and the United States) reflect movements in fundamentals or speculative bubbles. To this end, we estimate a state-space model to decompose the stock market indexes of the three NAFTA member countries into fundamentals and speculative bubbles. We analyze the linkages of the three stock markets by means of cointegration techniques. Evidence of cointegration linkages between fundamentals is stronger than evidence of cointegration linkages between speculative bubbles.     

Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area

Financial conditions indexes are developed for the United States and euro area using a wide range of financial indicators and a dynamic factor model. The financial conditions indexes are shown to be useful for forecasting economic activity and have good revision properties. Variants of the indexes that allow for cross-economy effects reveal very strong financial linkages across the United States and euro area.     

Second-Best Linkages and the Gains from Global Reform of Manufactures Trade

The Uruguay Round's built-in agenda for future WTO negotiations omitted further liberalization in manufactures, yet this paper shows that there are large potential gains to be had from such tariff cuts, especially in the developing countries. In order to fully estimate the benefits of adding industrial products to a future multilateral trade round, we need to take into account the levels of protection in other sectors—most notably agriculture and services—in which many trade flows are highly distorted. This paper examines the nature of the second-best linkages among sectors using a balance-of-trade function approach. The importance of these linkages is evaluated using a numerical general equilibrium model. It is found that, in most cases, the second-best spillovers do not greatly affect the results, implying that the estimated gains from manufacturing reforms will be largely independent of their sequencing. However, in a few regions, most notably the EU, the second-best effects play a significant role.     

农业产业集群优化升级的空间配置模型:供应链管理视角

文章从供应链管理视角,建立了同时考虑生产和运输成本的农业产业集群优化升级空间配置问题的混合整数规划数学模型。该模型通过对农业产业集群供应链网络的各个生产节点的区位、生产规模进行选择,以最小化农产品的初级生产、初级加工、完成品加工和配送的总成本。文章并以陕西渭北平原苹果产业集群为例,得出了集群的最优空间配置方案,验证了模型的有效性,也表明该模型对农业产业集群空间配置的优化和升级能提供有益参考。     

省际边缘区县域经济差异及其空间特征分析——以赣州市为例

以赣州市为例,选取14个指标,采用因子分析和聚类分析方法对赣州市县域经济差异进行了综合评价,并在此基础上深入分析了其空间特征。结果表明:赣州市县域经济差异显著,经济发展水平总体上呈现出以章贡区为中心向四周县域降低的环带状地域联系与分异规律,可划分为发达型、次发达型、中等型和滞后型4个层次区。同时,基于对其县域经济差异形成机制的分析,进一步提出充分发挥比较优势、健全城市规模体系、形成特色产业集群等促进其协调发展的途径。