基于ARIMA模型的我国社会消费品零售总额实证分析

通过研究我国2005年1月至2015年11月社会消费品零售总额变动情况,建立合理的ARIMA模型进行时间序列分析研究,结果表明,我国社会消费品零售总额呈现一种整体周期性波动上升的趋势;同时,所建模型为预测2016年我国社会消费品零售总额提供了有效的技术支持。该模型的应用帮助我们得出的结论是:为促进社会消费健康发展,必须健全社会保障机制,提高人民消费水平;加强市场监管力度,规范市场经济秩序;扩大社会投资规模,提升社会消费需求。     

我国社会消费品零售总额的预测分析——基于最小二乘法的改进GM(1,1)模型

我国社会消费品零售总额受到诸多因素的影响,导致数据波动性较大,单纯地采用灰色预测模型无法更加准确地进行预测,因此本文提出了基于最小二乘法的改进GM(1,1)模型,首先介绍了普通GM(1,1)模型的建立方法与步骤;接着通过采用最小二乘法的原理弱化波动较大的数据,加强其规律性从而建立新的GM(1,1)模型;最后结合2007²011年我国社会消费品零售总额数据建立新的预测模型,并用2012年数据对模型进行验证合格,可以用来预测未来几年我国社会消费品零售总额,便于我国对未来社会消费品宏观调控。结果表明该预测方法是合理可行的,为其他相关预测提供了理论依据。     

我国人口可持续发展问题实证研究——基于GM(1,1)模型的建立与预测

本文阐明GM(1,1)模型的基本理论,收集2001年～2007年我国人口时间序列资料,建立人口数量GM(1,1)模型,分析原因,并对未来若干年人口发展趋势进行预测,提出适宜的政策建议。     

中国零售市场趋势的实证分析

运用指标法和数学模型，从需求的角度，分析了1991年以来中国农村零售市场和城镇零售市场的变化趋势，得到了农村、城镇零售市场发展潜力和市场波动特点，以及影响农村、城镇零售市场的主要因素。     

石家庄市社会消费品零售总额与经济增长关系实证研究

社会消费品零售总额是衡量消费领域的重要指标之一,消费做为拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,在我国经济领域起着越来越重要的作用,尤其在新冠疫情之后的中国,消费将成为带动经济恢复、促进经济高质量发展的最重要引擎,所以关注社会消费品零售总额与经济增长的长短期关系对当下和未来一段时期预测经济发展走向就至关重要.本文选取石家庄...     

基于改进GM(1,1)的CPI灰色预测模型

根据我国2008年1至12月份的CPI数据,建立基于改进GM(1,1)的CPI灰色预测模型,并对2009年1月份CPI进行预测。     

我国社会融资规模的预测及对策研究——基于新陈代谢灰色GM(1,1)视角

本文从社会融资规模的具体内涵出发,构建新陈代谢灰色GM(1,1)社会融资规模预测模型,以2006—2010年我国社会融资规模数据为原始数据测试集,对其进行数据拟合,并对2011—2012年社会融资规模进行预测及检验,确定未来五年内我国社会融资规模的预测值,为其发展趋势的合理性判断提供支持,具有现实的指导意义。     

基于灰色残差GM(1,1)模型的中国铁路货运量预测

铁路货运量预测作为铁路运输生产的基础工作之一,是铁路运输企业制定正确市场营销战略的前提条件。为提高我国铁路货运量的预测精度,适应铁路持续、迅速、健康发展的需要,在传统灰色预测技术的基础上,本文建立了残差灰色预测模型,并通过实例分析验证了该模型的实用性和精确性。     

社会消费品零售总额预测分析及运用研究

社会消费品零售总额反映一定时期内人民物质文化生活水平的提高情况,反映社会商品购买力的实现程度,以及零售市场的规模状况。本文运用指数平滑法对我国五个省市的社会消费品零售总额进行预测,发现各省市在社会消费品零售总额方面存在的差距,得到的2015-2020的预测值为政府制定相关政策提供参考。     

Retail sales of consumer goods:＞RMB 10 trln

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS)forecasted the retail sales of consumer goods in 2008 at RMB 10.67 trillion(about US＄1.57 trillion),up 12.8 percent as consumption grows. The figure would reach RMB 12.48 trillion in 2009,up 12.5 percent,said a report released by the CASS.     

Beyond the world of packaged goods: assessing the relevance of integrated marketing communications for retail and consumer service marketing

Product and packaged goods marketers have responded to changing consumer and media environments by adopting integrated approaches to marketing communication. The value and utility of such approaches likely extend to a wide range of marketers, but there have been few published attempts to examine the viability of the integrated marketing communication concept in retail and service marketing. This study addresses this void by using a seven-stage model of integrated marketing communications to examine the media and message delivery practices of national and regional retailers and consumer service marketers. The results of a national mail survey found many of these marketers using such key integrated marketing communication elements as multiple media, databases, individual-level consumer information and behavioural response measures in their media and message delivery practices. Few, however, were using these elements in a strategic or coordinated fashion. Integrated approaches thus appear to have much value in retail and service marketing, particularly as a means for coordinating media and message delivery elements in a fashion that provides a way to link behavioural responses to media vehicles and advertising messages.     

中外资零售企业盈利模式比较

我国的零售企业与国外的零售企业相比存在着差距与不足,本文通过对中外资零售企业盈利模式的比较分析,找出两者之间存在的差异,并提出了改进我国零售业盈利模式的建议.     

卷烟物流企业服务社会消费品市场可行性探索——以贵州省毕节市卷烟物流配送中心为例

研究经济社会相对落后的山区卷烟物流企业为社会提供服务消费品市场的问题,是必要的,也是可能的,对于其存在的困难和面临的大环境,提出应树立危机意识,财务核算相对独立及运营模式相对独立等对策。     

The relationship between anomie and unethical retail disposition

Despite potential competitive and customer service advantages of liberal return policies, retailers have tightened policies in response to fraudulent consumer behavior. This article suggests that changes in consumer behavior/retail return policies may be the result of a larger social phenomenon: consumer anomie. This research explores consumer anomie within the context of retailing. Two studies assess the relationships between anomie, materialism, rationalization techniques, and fraudulent marketplace behaviors. Factor analysis corroborates previous research indicating that modern‐day anomie is essentially cynicism. Consumers high in cynicism are more materialistic and more likely than other consumers to employ rationalization techniques in order to justify engaging in unethical retail disposition. Consumers high in cynicism are also found to hold more favorable views toward engaging in fraudulent marketplace behaviors that permit them to benefit at the seller's expense. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Packaging and design of consumer goods: a comparative study between Turkey and Jordan

The purpose of this study of packaging design is to examine the preferences of Turkish and Jordanian consumers living in the capital cities of both countries. A field survey was carried out to measure consumers' preferences, mostly for consumer goods, for colour or colour combinations of packages, and package sizes. The colour and size preferences show differences based on different cultures and economic conditions both in Turkey and Jordan. The study also investigates the influence of purchase frequency on package sizes. The conclusions will be beneficial to those who are planning and developing suitable marketing strategies for multinational companies.     

抽象使用价值与生活资料消费规则

抽象劳动形成价值作为商品交换的民就度；有用劳动生产使用 众进为了满足人类社会的生活需要和生产需要。人类通过生产或交换获得物品，是为了得到特品的形体，还是为了取得它的属性：使用价值？依据使用价值就是商品体的传统观念，人类生产和交换的目的似科是得到商品体，只要得到商品体，使用民就得到了，如果这样理解，使用价值就没有随生产和交换的物品量的增加而边际递减的概念，人们消费的生产资料越多，似乎对他们所起的作用就越大；人们在生产过程中使用的生产资料越多，获得的生产效果也就越大。可是，介人们的消费实践活动，还是生产实践活动，都能够用客观事实说明，并不都是如此。事实表明，如果作为满足人们生活需要和生产需要的使用价值没有边际递减的性质，就会同人类实践活动的客观事实相矛盾。使用价值就是有用性，它喝砂能离开体而独立存在，但二者决不能被认为是一个概念。体现在生活资料物品上的有用性，是一种通过人的生理或者心理感受出来的东西；体现在生产资料物品上的有用性，是一种在生产过程中表现出来的实际效果。生活资料和生产资料的使用价值是有区别的，不能够用一个共同的东西来衡量，也不应该用同一个概念来表达。可以称生产资料的使用价值 为抽象使用价值，称生产资料的使用价值为具体使用价值。这就提出了问题，抽象使用价值和具体使用价值具有什么样的特性；抽象使用价值与生活资料的消费之间有什么样的关系，以什么样的消费制度安排能够实现生活资料的合理使用；具体使用价值与生产资料的使用之间有什么样的关系，以什么样的生产制度安排能够实现生产资料的合理配置。本文仅研究抽象使用价值与生产资料消费规则。     

Fashion consumption using minimalism: Exploring the relationship of consumer well-being and social connectedness

The dominance of minimalism as a lifestyle among individuals and its influence on sustainable consumption has increased significantly; still, the concept within academic literature is conjecture in nature and exploratory to date. Also, a concrete definition of the concept and empirical evidence is lacking in academic literature and hence needs to be systemically established. In this context, minimalism has been proposed as a deliberate paradigm shift in consumer behavior grounded on the sustainable lifestyle principle. The data were collected using a highly structured questionnaire from 436 consumers and analyzed using process macros analysis techniques. The study indicates that minimalism is a sustainable lifestyle choice and helps people in achieving consumer well-being and life satisfaction focus on what matters the most in life and where to devote their energies. As a result, people with greater life satisfaction and consumer well-being are likely to experience more positive emotions and fewer negative emotions, eventually leading to an overall state of positive emotional well-being. Moreover, minimalists with high control over their consumption desire further strengthen this relationship. This research deepens the understanding of minimalism in an Asian context by opening a future research avenue and exploring the additional contributions minimalism can make. Moreover this study offers a clear rationale to understand why it is valuable for customers to incorporate minimalism into their lifestyles, which has the potential to motivate the manufacturer to seek more significant production modes which accord with the minimalistic lifestyle.     

Antecedents and consequences of role stress of retail sales persons

Given the central proposition in services marketing that service excellence is largely determined by the interaction between customer contact personnel and customers, we examine the antecedents and consequences of role stress in a retail context both from the employee and the customer perspective. We investigate the impact of the service control versus the empowerment model on role ambiguity and role conflict and we look at the effect of these role stressor on commitment towards the organization and to delivering service quality by retail sales persons. Finally, we explore the impact on customer perceived service quality. Empirical findings reveal, among other things, that both formalization and empowerment reduce role ambiguity. Role ambiguity in turn is negatively associated with both organizational commitment and commitment to quality. The latter type of commitment has a positive impact on customer perceived quality.