危机下的我国短期国际资本流动：趋势、原因、影响及建议

随着金融危机的持续蔓延和国际金融机构去杠杆化的逐渐深入．一些新兴市场国家的国际资本净流入状态受危机影响已逆转为净流出状态。我国短期国际资本的流动趋势在2008年7月也发生了逆转。在本文中作者重点讨论了我国短期国际资本发生逆转的原因、影响．并针对短期国际资本流动逆转的风险给出了相应的政策建议。     

危机背景下我国短期国际资本流入逆转：原因、影响及建议

随着金融危机的持续蔓延和国际金融机构去杠杆化的逐渐深入,一些新兴市场国家的国际资本净流入状态受危机影响已逆转为净流出状态。我国短期国际资本的流动趋势在2008年7月也发生了逆转,本文重点讨论我国短期国际资本发生逆转的原因、影响,并针对短期国际资本流入逆转的风险给出了相应的政策建议。     

基于资本流动逆转的货币危机理论——兼论我国应对危机冲击的策略选择

货币危机理论是当前国际经济学研究热点之一,在已有的三大危机理论中均有关于货币危机与资本流动的论述,但均是通过已构建的模型寻找货币危机和资本流动逆转的原因,而非阐述资本流动逆转与货币危机的内在关系,对当前因资本流动逆转所引发的货币危机缺乏解释力。本文拟从资本流动的宏观视角出发,运用数理模型推导汇率与资本流动内在关系表达式,利用资本流动模型构建资本流动逆转货币危机理论分析框架,探讨资本流动逆转货币危机对我国的影响和冲击,并提出应对之策。     

构建跨境资本流动风险的应急机制

跨境资本的异常流动可能会对一国的经济、金融产生巨大的冲击,甚至导致金融危机.构建相应的应急机制有利于降低资本流动带来的风险和冲击.我国自加入WTO以来,特别是在人民币升值预期依然强烈的背景下,资本流入规模猛增,异常资本流动显著加快,构建跨境资本流动风险的应急机制,已成为当务之急.本文在分析我国资本流动的特征和跨境资本异常流动引发的系统风险的基础上,构建出包括预警机制、防范机制和处置机制在内的应对跨境资本流动风险的应急机制.     

货币危机理论及其最新发展——基于国际资本流动逆转的理论分析框架

货币危机理论是当前国际经济学研究热点之一,学者围绕货币危机发生的内在机制逐渐形成和发展了三代货币危机模型.但是这些模型大多从微观经济主体出发,探讨货币危机发生机制,对当前因国际资本流动逆转所引起的货币危机缺乏解释力.本文拟从国际资本流动的宏观视角出发,运用数理模型推导汇率与资本流动内在关系表达式,利用国际资本流动模型构建资本流动逆转下的货币危机理论分析框架,深入探讨了杠杆投资和去杠杆化在货币危机发生机制中的作用.     

开放环境下中国跨境资本流动风险研究

中国资本开放是大势所趋,随着我国资本项目开放迈入快车道,关于资本开放的利弊之争再度兴起。本文从资本项目开放利弊出发,梳理我国资本项目开放进程,数据分析我国当前短期资本流动现状,理论分析资本开放对跨境资本流动风险影响,合成跨境资金流动综合稳定指标,实证分析我国资本项目开放与跨境资金流动风险关系,基于历史数据的研究结果表明当前我国资本开放会加剧跨境资金流动风险。因此,目前我国尚未完全具备资本开放条件,应稳步审慎开放,以防风险。     

论托宾税及对我国资本流动管理的改进

随着金融全球化的加速和金融深化的发展,国际资本流动越来越频繁,我国愈发受到国际资本流动的影响,尤其是国际短期资本的影响。因此,有效地监管国际资本流动,特别是国际短期资本流动是当前我国外汇管理面临的一项紧迫任务。本文从托宾税的提出、发展及实践出发,通过分析我国外汇管理在应对国际资本异常流动中存在缺陷,探讨了托宾税在我国应对资本异常流动时的效用,认为托宾税能有效地改进我国的资本流动管理。     

新兴经济体跨境资本流动的脆弱性与政策应对

新兴经济体金融危机的触发点是跨境资本流动的突然趋势性逆转.本文分析了新兴经济体跨境资本流动脆弱性的原因和表现,对多个新兴经济体国家跨境资本管理的经验进行了归纳总结,对我国管理跨境资本流动提出了相应的政策建议.     

资本项目宏观审慎管理框架设计探析

近年来,我国大力推进资本项目外汇管理改革,加速资本项目可兑换进程、构建资本项目宏观审慎管理框架成为其中的重要环节。本文借鉴新兴市场国家资本项目宏观审慎管理经验,明确我国资本项目宏观审慎管理实践探索课题,提出建立完善宏观审慎管理预警指标体系,综合运用宏观审慎调控工具应对跨境资本流动风险,构建应对资本流出风险的审慎管理框架的建议。     

资本洪流汹涌 新兴市场筑坝

为防止经济过热，防范资本流入逆转风险，保持经济稳定增长，一些发展中国家及新兴经济体纷纷采取措施，应对资本大量流入……     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.     

Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures

We investigate the diversification benefits of energy assets in the setting of commodity financialization using data on crude oil futures and Sector ETFs (SPDRs). Correlations between commodities and financial assets increased during the post-Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA)/commodity bull cycle period, resulting in lower benefits of diversification. However, we find that conditional correlations between crude oil futures and sector ETFs meaningfully increased only since the 2008–09 financial crisis. The results therefore suggest that the financial crisis, rather than CFMA regulation, explains changes in the diversification benefits of commodities. Moreover, we find that oil futures returns are less correlated with SPDRs than with the S&P index. Thus, energy futures, and crude oil in particular, offer the potential for diversification benefits in sector-style investing.     

Dutch accounting in Japan 1609-1850: isolation or observation?

The trading station or factory maintained by the Dutch East India Company (VOC) was Japan's sole window on the Western world during most of the Tokugawa period (1600-1868). While many aspects of the factory's role in Dutch/Japanese cultural exchange have been researched little is known in the West of the accounting at the factory. This paper considers the possibility that double-entry bookkeeping employed by the Dutch may have been diffused to the Japanese. The available evidence is synthesized after considering the accounting system in the Dutch factory.