股权结构、投资行为与公司业绩

在对十一大行业进行实证研究中,发现国家股与境内发起法人股比例在公司业绩中所扮演的作用具有行业特点。国有股代理成本高的假说在机械、纺织与化工行业得到了实证支持,但在其它八大行业都没有。公用事业与医药行业第一大股东持股与业绩显著正相关,机械行业截然相反;一股独大与两股同大孰优孰劣因行业而异。十一大行业中有三大行业的业绩与前十大行业持股没有相关性,但与股权的法人性质相关。IT行业业绩与生产性股东数量显著正相关,机械行业的信托投资股东牵制了上市公司的发展。上市公司业绩在很大程度上依靠粗放型的投资拉动,八大行业公司的业绩同资本支出显著正相关,五大行业公司的业绩同权益资本投资显著正相关。     

资本市场错误定价、融资约束与公司投资

资本市场错误定价如何影响实体经济是一个具有深远意义的问题,如何准确度量错误定价是研究这一问题的关键,但人们更关注在此基础上,错误定价会对实体经济产生什么影响以及通过何种途径产生影响.本文采用可操控应计利润作为错误定价的代理变量,运用2000-2012年A股上市公司年度数据,研究了股票市场错误定价对公司投资的影响及影响途径.研究发现,股价高估会促进公司投资,但主要作用于高融资约束公司,对低融资约束公司没有显著影响.进一步研究发现,股价高估不仅会促进高融资约束公司的股权融资,还会促进其债务融资,进而放松融资约束,促进公司投资.进一步对不同所有权性质公司的研究发现,对于外部融资环境较差的民营公司,股价高估可以通过放松融资约束的途径促进公司投资;而对国有公司则不存在这种影响.本文的研究表明,在资本市场存在摩擦、公司面临较高融资约束的情况下,股价高估可以通过放松融资约束的途径促进公司投资,改善资源配置.     

The NAIRU,Aggregate Demand and Investment

The nature of the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is analysed. The focus of our analysis is the role of aggregate demand and capacity in the context of the NAIRU. Two aspects of the relationship between the level of aggregate demand and the NAIRU are of particular significance. First, it is argued that the real wage–employment relationship based on enterprise decisions cannot be fully articulated without reference to the level of aggregate demand. Second, a model which allows for variable returns to labour and the notion of full capacity is used to explore the effects of shifts in the capital stock on the real wage–employment relationship. The model is specifically used to explore whether a sufficiently expansionary environment can generate sufficient investment to shift that relationship until the NAIRU is compatible with full employment. A number of limitations on the conclusions reached are considered, and the policy implications are briefly considered.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Regulations and Growth

The paper explores the linkage between income growth rates and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. So far the evidence is rather mixed, as no robust relationship between FDI and income growth has been established. We argue that countries need a sound business environment in the form of good government regulations to be able to benefit from FDI. Using a comprehensive data set for regulations, we test this hypothesis and find evidence that excessive regulations restrict growth through FDI only in the most regulated economies. This result is robust to different specifications of the econometric model.     

Investment Decisions,Debt Renegotiation Friction,and Agency Conflicts

This paper investigates how investment decisions are influenced by the possibility of debt renegotiation failure and shareholder–debtholder conflicts by extending the Sundaresan and Wang (2007) model. We find that the difference in investment thresholds due to agency conflicts decreases as shareholders’ bargaining power increases. We also show that as the probability of renegotiation friction is lower, the investment threshold is lower, which is consistent with the empirical result of Favara et al. (2017).     

The Dynamics of Currency,Savings, and Investment Rates

This paper examines the dynamic relations among foreign exchange rates, savings, and investment ratio for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We find that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated of order (1, −1). This result is consistent with the literature on the savings–investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Using country‐specific and longitudinal panel vector autoregressive models, we show that historical savings–investment differentials do not help explain foreign exchange rates. We demonstrate, however, that foreign exchange rates and trade balance ratio impact the difference between savings and investments. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the savings–investment difference to widen.     

外商直接投资、对外直接投资与国际收支——基于国际收支平衡的我国对外直接投资

在我国,引进外商直接投资和对外直接投资之间存在着严重的不对称性。我国国际收支中投资收益逆差抵消了大量的贸易顺差,在未来贸易顺差和外资流入减少的情况下,这将会导致中国国际收支的恶化。因此,需要大力推进我国的对外直接投资以谋求国际收支平衡。     

EU Challenges,Investment in the EU and the Role of the European Investment Group

While monetary policy is close to the limits of what it can achieve, consensus on a more active fiscal policy is still lacking. Indeed, on the political front, Europe stands at something of a political crossroads, facing growing social, economic and political challenges. Efforts are now focused on pragmatically advancing on key common priorities. The urgency and ambition with which this co-operation proceeds will be critical to success.     

中国：高储蓄、高投资和高增长研究

本文探讨了中国经济发展过程中长期存在的高储蓄、高投资和高增长并存的现象。文章认为：人口红利、工业化、城市化和市场化改革，是造成中国经济“三高”的实体经济因素和体制因素，这些因素并不能由宏观经济政策予以调整。文章最后提出了大力发展直接融资的改革对策。     

人民币的投放、回笼和流通

随着经济的快速发展，人民币的发行管理工作益显重要，在一定程度上，它对经济的发展起积极作用，相反，如果发行工作管理得不好，会延缓经济的增长。在新形势下如何加强人民币的发行管理，使人民币的发行适合经济发展的需要，这必须了解我国的货币分布和货币流通规律，而它主要取决于投放函数、回笼函数和流通函数。     

异质股东、研发投资与企业绩效

在交易成本经济学的理论框架下纳入股东异质性因素,籍此探讨关系型股东与企业研发投资的匹配问题,并利用2004—2009年923家中国上市公司的数据进行实证研究。结果发现:国有关系型持股仅在民营企业中随研发投资增加而显著增加,具有显著的积极治理效应;民营关系型持股仅在国有企业中随研发投资增加而显著增加,具有显著的积极治理效应;机构持股随企业研发投资增加而显著增加,具有显著的积极治理效应,且这种现象在国有企业中表现得更为明显。在此基础上,就如何提高不同类型企业的研发效率提出相应的政策建议。     

卖空机制、盈余管理与公司投资效率

本文针对我国证券市场引入融资融券交易制度这一特殊的自然实验,以2006~2015年我国A股上市公司为样本,通过建立双重差分模型研究放松卖空管制对上市公司非效率投资的治理效应及其影响机制.结果发现:卖空机制通过抑制公司的盈余管理提高了公司的投资效率;相对于治理质量较高的公司,卖空机制对治理质量较低公司投资效率的影响更为显著.本文研究对进一步深化我国证券交易市场改革,提高公司投资效率,实现金融资源的优化配置具有借鉴意义.     

集聚经济、税收竞争与资本投资

中国地方政府之间以税收优惠为手段竞相吸引资本的行为客观上导致税源流失的同时使资源配置失衡,新经济地理学与税收竞争理论的结合为缓解税收竞争提供新的视角和思路.本研究以省级政府为研究样本构建空间杜宾模型,针对集聚经济对税收竞争的缓解作用是否适用于中国进行实证研究.研究结果表明,中国地区资本流动形成的集聚经济能够有效协调区域之间的不对称税收竞争.上述研究为"十三五"规划关于发展中心城市的政策从税收竞争的角度提供理论回应和经验证据,肯定了发展中心城市吸引要素集聚的积极作用.     

环境不确定性、客户集中度与投资效率

基于大客户与企业间隐喻契约关系对企业专用性投资的传导性影响机理,从客户集中度研究视角切入,考察了环境不确定性约束条件下大客户对企业投资效率的影响机制与后果。研究发现,客户集中度对企业非效率投资存在“选择性”不对称影响,显著加剧了企业投资过度,却未导致企业投资不足;进一步分析表明,环境不确定程度是两者关系的调节性因素,不确定性较低时两者关系显著且稳健,不确定性较高时两者间不再具有显著关系。     

Foreign Direct Investment,Competition and Industry Performance

This paper investigates the productivity effects of inward and outward foreign direct investment using industry‐ and country‐level data for 17 OECD countries over the period 1973 to 2001. Controlling for national and international knowledge spillovers we argue that the effects of FDI work through direct compositional effects as well as changing competition in the host country. Our results show that there are, on average, productivity benefits from inward FDI, although we can identify a number of countries which, on aggregate, do not appear to benefit in terms of productivity. On the other hand, a country's stock of outward FDI is, on average, negatively related to productivity. However, again there is substantial heterogeneity in the effect across OECD countries.     

The Division of Labor,Investment and Capital

A dynamic general equilibrium model based on corner solutions is used to formalize the classical theory of investment and capital which considers investment to be a vehicle for developing a high level of division of labor in roundabout productive activities. If it takes time for a specialist producer of tractors to learn the right method to produce commercially viable tractors, specialization in producing tractors is infeasible in the absence of investment in terms of consumption goods which are consumed by the specialist producer of tractors before he can sell tractors. If specialized learning by doing can speed up accumulation of professional knowledge so that roundabout productive machines become cheap, such investment for increasing the level of division of labor in roundabout productive activities will speed up economic growth. Because of the trade-off between economies of specialized learning by doing and transaction costs, the model can be used to investigate the effects of a change in the transaction cost coefficient, which can be affected by policy, the legal system and urbanization, on the evolution of the division of labor, on real interest rates and on the saving rate.     

管理者过度自信,融资偏好与公司投资

通过公司投资与现金流之间的敏感度具体考察管理者的过度自信行为对我国上市公司内部或者外部融资偏好行为的影响,结果表明:总经理的年龄越大,任职时间越长,学历越高,以及当总经理拥有理工类教育背景时,总经理的过度自信行为越弱,因此,总经理更多地利用外部融资而不是内部融资,从而公司投资与现金流之间的敏感度越弱;而当总经理拥有经管类教育背景时,总经理的过度自信行为越强,因此,总经理更少地利用外部融资,从而公司投资与现金流之间的敏感度越强。     

股权激励、代理成本与企业投资效率

将股权激励、所有权结构、代理成本与投资效率纳入一个统一的分析框架,使用产权属性作为调节变量,代理成本作为中介变量,实证检验股权激励是否影响投资效率,以及股权激励、所有权结构、代理成本与投资效率之间的关系。结果表明:股权激励能够抑制上市公司的非效率投资,代理成本的中介效应显著,但所占比重很小,非国有企业的抑制作用大于国有企业,非国有企业的中介传导机制畅通;国有企业"期权激励"方式能够显著抑制非效率投资,非国有企业的非效率投资通过实施"股票激励"方式能够得到显著抑制;实施股权激励计划能够显著抑制上市公司的投资不足,非国有企业的抑制作用大于国有企业,非国有企业的代理成本中介效应机制畅通,国有上市公司的代理成本中介效应不显著。     

China,A Long Term Investment

Terry Spall, President of MiRA Shanghai, is a frequent guest to China. UK-based MIRA is recognized as a global leading independent product engineering, testingi consultancy and certification organization, and due to his work, Terry spends around 3 months per year made up of 2 or 3 week trips to China and has been doing so for many years. In total he has made more than 60 trips to China. For what China is like in his eyes, Terry shares his thoughts with China＇s Foreign Trade.     

Overseas Investment, Encouraging Long Journey

In the context of the financial crisis, international capital flows, cross-border investment, as well as the mergers and acquisitions generally continues shrinking at a large range in 2009, while China's foreign investment and overseas cooperation still maintains a good momentum of devclopment.