Tacit Collusion in a Spatial Model with Delivered Pricing

Received August 5, 1999; revised version received July 20, 2001     

能够为母公司创利的IBM实验室

多年来IBM不但是世界获得专利最多的高技术企业，而且它的实验室能为母公司盈得巨额利润，本文总结了该公司的成功经验，主要是：（一）研发资金雄厚；（二）有一大批高水平的科学家；（三）研发以市场为导向；（四）从管理体制上确保研发的经济效益；（五）强调基础研究的重要作用。（六）突出计算机服务业；（七）利用公关造势。     

Taking Marshallian Long-Period Equilibrium Seriously

Received May 5, 2000; revised version received November 11, 2000     

The (Price) Core of a Bertrand–Edgeworth Economy

In this paper, a solution concept from cooperative game theory is applied to a special kind of oligopolistic markets. Traditionally, oligopoly theory uses non-cooperative game theory. The cooperative solution concept, the Price Core, has been specially developed for this paper. In contrast to the Core, in the Price Core, different consumers may pay different prices for the same commodity. An example shows that the set of competitive allocations may be a proper subset of the Core and that the Core may be a proper subset of the Price Core. Received July 24, 2001; revised version received February 25, 2002 Published online: December 5, 2002     

Taxation and Labor Markets

We exploit the common features of models such as union, search and efficiency wage models to develop a framework that can be used to analyze the effects of any revenue-neutral tax reform on employment. In particular, we show that taxes paid by workers are not equivalent to taxes paid by firms when taxes are non linear. Moreover, we show that the positive impact of tax progressivity on employment is attributable only to a limited set of hypotheses. Received May 2, 2001; revised version received November 27, 2001 Published online: December 5, 2002     

PPP如何影响地方财政风险*——来自债券市场反应的证据

政府与社会资本合作（PPP）的倡导者认为PPP能够为地方政府分担财政压力，分散投资风险，提高资源配置效率；其反对者则认为PPP背后隐藏着政府的隐性担保和补贴、腐败和寻租，预算内的财政压力减小只是一种财政幻觉，反倒无形中累积了系统性风险。本文利用中国2015—2020年间的债券发行数据以及PPP在各地的落地信息，以地方政府债券为实验组，以国债和金融债为控制组，构建双重差分模型，检验PPP集中落地是否增加了地方财政风险，进而抬升了地方政府债券的发行成本。实证结果表明，2016—2017年左右的PPP集中落地使得地方政府债券发行受到来自市场的利率惩罚，5年期地方债发行利率的风险溢价为67个基点~297个基点，10年期地方债发行利率的风险溢价为21个基点~41个基点，且这种效应在PPP项目较多和较少的地区之间存在异质性。更换控制组、推后PPP项目对地方财政的实际冲击时间、假设虚假的实验组等一系列稳健性检验证明这一发现具有可信性。此外，本文还讨论了这一实证结果背后的可能原因，并提出促进PPP良性发展的措施。     

The “Adjustable-curtain” Strategy: Overbooking of Multiclass Service

The “adjustable-curtain” strategy, now commonly practiced by many airline companies, refers to a strategy where the airline adjusts the size of the business-class section of the aircraft shortly before boarding takes place. This strategy enables the carrier to deny boarding of economy-class passengers in an event of a high show-up of business-class (high-paying) passengers by simply enlarging the business-class section at the expense of the economy-class section (and of course, the other way around, in a case of a low show-up of business passengers). This paper develops a simple method of computing a profit-maximizing reservation policy which determines the number of business- and economy-class bookings taking into account that the adjustable-curtain strategy will be utilized prior to boarding. Received July 27, 2001; revised version received October 5, 2001     

PPP如何影响地方财政风险*——来自债券市场反应的证据

政府与社会资本合作（PPP）的倡导者认为PPP能够为地方政府分担财政压力，分散投资风险，提高资源配置效率；其反对者则认为PPP背后隐藏着政府的隐性担保和补贴、腐败和寻租，预算内的财政压力减小只是一种财政幻觉，反倒无形中累积了系统性风险。本文利用中国2015—2020年间的债券发行数据以及PPP在各地的落地信息，以地方政府债券为实验组，以国债和金融债为控制组，构建双重差分模型，检验PPP集中落地是否增加了地方财政风险，进而抬升了地方政府债券的发行成本。实证结果表明，2016—2017年左右的PPP集中落地使得地方政府债券发行受到来自市场的利率惩罚，5年期地方债发行利率的风险溢价为67个基点~297个基点，10年期地方债发行利率的风险溢价为21个基点~41个基点，且这种效应在PPP项目较多和较少的地区之间存在异质性。更换控制组、推后PPP项目对地方财政的实际冲击时间、假设虚假的实验组等一系列稳健性检验证明这一发现具有可信性。此外，本文还讨论了这一实证结果背后的可能原因，并提出促进PPP良性发展的措施。     

Capital Maintenance and Investment: Complements or Substitutes?

This paper studies the properties of demand for capital maintenance services and its interaction with investment under variable capital utilization rate and adjustment costs. The depreciation rate varies with the maintenance effort and the utilization rate of capital. We show that the properties of the demand functions for maintenance services and capital goods depend closely on the sign of the cross derivative of the depreciation function, i.e., on whether the marginal efficiency of maintenance decreases or increases when the rate of capital utilization rises. In our model, it is impossible to reconcile some unquestionable empirical facts and some minimal regularity conditions on the demand function for maintenance services if this cross derivative is positive. In all cases, investment and maintenance are gross complements. Received September 9, 2001; revised version received April 22, 2002 Published online: December 5, 2002 ? Springer-Verlag 2002     

THE RISK PREFERENCES OF ENTREPRENEURS IN INDONESIA

Entrepreneurship is known to be important for innovation and economic growth, but relatively little attention has been paid to entrepreneurs in developing countries. We examined an important aspect of entrepreneurship: risk‐taking. We analysed the Indonesian Family Life Survey and compared risk preferences between entrepreneurs and non‐entrepreneurs. We found that risk tolerant workers were more likely to be entrepreneurs than risk averse workers by about 5 percentage points, or about 20 percent of the proportion of entrepreneurs in the labour force. The results imply that not all entrepreneurs in Indonesia are pushed into the sector; some actively take risks and seek innovations.     

Japan's oligopolies: Potential economy wide gains from structural reforms

Japan's slowdown preceded those in the other advanced economies and is therefore of global significance. While its initial causes were financial, a resurgence will depend on productivity growth, key determinants of which are investment and industrial structure. This paper focuses on the costs of a structure dominated by oligopolies and the potential gains from combined competition and tax reform. We first identify industry concentration levels and economic rents using firm specific data and then incorporate these in a calibrated economy-wide model. Simulations suggest that competition policy and more openness to investment in services could deliver 5–17% of additional GDP. These stimulate investment via returning external wealth. Gains are spread most evenly if competition policy is combined with company tax reform. This retains fiscal balance and improves the domestic purchasing power of all Japanese incomes.     

Financial Premium and Real Exchange Rate Misalignment

The literature overwhelmingly believes that the size of a financial premium could be an indicator of the extent of the real exchange rate misalignment under dual exchange rates. We wish to oppose this view. The strategy in this paper is to investigate the effects that monetary and real shocks from domestic or foreign origin have on these variables. We also extend the analysis of the theoretical model by discussing numerical simulations. Both theoretical and numerical examinations together show that such a relationship does not exist. Moreover, we find that the more volatile the financial premium, the more stable the real exchange rate. Received December 17, 2001; revised version received May 15, 2002 Published online: December 5, 2002     

高等教育回报的质量差异*——对部属、省属与地方高校的比较研究

文章将高校按质量差异分成部属高校、省属高校及其他高校,利用倾向得分配对的方法估计教育质量回报的相关处理效应。研究发现,高校质量与个体获得的教育回报正相关,部属高校的回报最高,年均回报（ATE）约为185%,从大学总体回报来看,部属高校与其他高校之间的回报差异为163%,而与省属高校不存在显著差异。对于实际上大学的个体,不同类型高校之间的参与者处理效应(TT)均存在显著差异。通过对教育回报的性别差异比较,发现女性进入一流高校比男性的价值更大。     

Economic Development,International Trade,and Income Distribution

This paper applies the inframarginal analysis, which is a combination of marginal and total cost-benefit analysis, to investigate the relationship between division of labor, the extent of the market, productivity and inequality of income distribution. The model with transaction costs and exogenous and endogenous comparative advantages shows that as trading efficiency is improved the general equilibrium discontinuously jumps from autarky to partial division of labor with a dual structure, then to the complete division of labor where dual structure disappears. In this process different groups of individuals with different trading efficiency become involved in a certain level of division of labor at different stages of development. As the leading group becomes involved in a higher level of division of labor leaving others behind, a dual structure emerges and inequality increases. As latecomers catch up dual structure disappears and inequality declines. When the leader goes to an even higher level of specialization, dual structure occurs and inequality increases again. Inequality decreases again as the latecomers catch up. Hence, the equilibrium degree of inequality fluctuates in this development process. The relationship between inequality and productivity is neither monotonically positive nor monotonically negative. It might not be an inverted U-curve. The key driving force of economic development and trade is improvement in trading efficiency. Received January 8, 2002; revised version May 2, 2002 Published online: December 5, 2002     

An empirical investigation of citizens' preferences among four energy scenarios

Within the context of the Jülich Compatibility Study on Energy Supply Systems the model of the planning cell was used to incorporate participation into the process of policy formulation and evaluation and to gain information about intuitive preferences concerning the four basic energy scenarios constructed by the Enquete Commission of the German Federal Parliament. Planning Cells consist of groups of citizens who are selected by random process and are given paid leave from their workday obligations for a limited period of time to work out solutions for social problems. A total of 24 planning cells were organized throughout Germany to evaluate the four energy scenarios and to formulate recommendations for the policy maker. As a result most citizens favored the more moderate scenarios [1, 5], but were almost equally divided in their preference distribution with respect to the pronuclear (option 2) and non-nuclear scenario (option 3). Using a simplified MAU-model to determine the preferences of each citizen, the surprising result was achieved that more than 40% of the participants reached the highest positive score for the most antinuclear, soft energy scenario. This result could be partly explained by cognitive factors and by preference group influence.     

Febuxostat in the management of gout: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Objective:

To determine the cost-effectiveness of febuxostat vs allopurinol for the management of gout.

Methods:

A stochastic microsimulation cost-effectiveness model with a US private-payer perspective and 5-year time horizon was developed. Model flow based on guideline and real-world treatment paradigms incorporated gout flare, serum uric acid (sUA) testing, treatment titration, discontinuation, and adverse events, chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence and progression, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence. Outcomes were estimated for the general gout population and for gout patients with CKD stages 3/4. Modeled treatment interventions were daily oral febuxostat 40–80?mg and allopurinol 100–300?mg. Baseline patient characteristics were taken from epidemiologic studies, efficacy data from randomized controlled trials, adverse event rates from package inserts, and costs from the literature, government sources, and expert opinion. Eight clinically-relevant incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated: per patient reaching target sUA, per flare avoided, per CKD incidence, progression, stages 3/4 progression, and stage 5 progression avoided, per incident T2DM avoided, and per death avoided.

Results:

Five-year incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the general gout population were $5377 per patient reaching target sUA, $1773 per flare avoided, $221,795 per incident CKD avoided, $29,063 per CKD progression avoided, $36,018 per progression to CKD 3/4 avoided, $71,426 per progression to CKD 5 avoided, $214,277 per incident T2DM avoided, and $217,971 per death avoided. In patients with CKD 3/4, febuxostat dominated allopurinol for all cost-effectiveness outcome measures.

Conclusions:

Febuxostat may be a cost-effective alternative to allopurinol, especially for patients with CKD stages 3 or 4.     

Patent Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model

We investigate how the patent policy affects economic growth and social welfare based on an endogenous growth model with R&D activities. We show that the patent length that maximizes the social welfare is finite. Moreover, by introducing compulsory licensing, we also show that the patent length that maximizes the social welfare is not infinite even if the royalty rate can be controlled. Received June 29, 2001; revised version received February 5, 2002 Published online: February 17, 2003 We wish to thank two anonymous referees for their constructive comments. We also thank Akira Yakita for his helpful comments.     

Enhanced co-citation analysis using frameworks

The valuation of intangible assets, such as patents, has recently been considered an important technique for R&D strategies. This paper proposes a citation analysis as a method of valuation on patent clusters having patent networks. A citation analysis is a method that examines the value of a patent on the basis of the number of citations of references. In particular, a co-citation analysis is used for coupling patents as the patent cluster and valuating the patent cluster. While the co-citation analysis is of great interest as a method of valuation, this analysis has not been fully examined and does not define any framework for a technology transition and patent strategy. Therefore, in this paper, the conventional co-citation analysis for evaluating the patent clusters is enhanced and frameworks for the technology transition and patent strategy are proposed by analysing citation routes in a co-citation analysis.     

Envirox™ fuel-borne catalyst: Developing and launching a nano-fuel additive

The paper presents a product case study tracing the challenges of commercialization from research and product development to market launch. Envirox™ is a diesel fuel additive containing nanoparticles of cerium oxide, which enables fuel efficiency gains alongside reductions in harmful emissions such as black carbon (soot). The case traces developmental stages from lab experimentation and performance data sets, to raising finance, securing manufacturing capability and market testing in Hong Kong and the UK. The paper raises a number of generic and specific issues facing innovative small, university spin-out companies engaged in introducing nano-products to the market-place.     

R&D Returns,Spillovers and Firm Incentives: Evidence from China

Using a new data set of 12,000 firms in China, this paper estimates the returns to R&D investment and its spillover effects, and investigates how the returns to R&D depend on firm incentives. For the firms in the sample, the results show that on average firm output increases around 0.4 yuan for each additional 1 yuan spent on R&D in the previous year, and there is high R&D return regardless of whether the endogeneity of R&D intensity is dealt with or not. Interestingly, the marginal return to R&D is significantly higher in firms whose CEOs were not appointed by the government, and lower when CEO pay is directly related to annual performance. The return to R&D is higher in relatively poor regions and for firms with worse access to finance. There are also non-trivial R&D spillover effects.