模糊数学在烟草研究中的应用

综合评价分析方法在烟草科学研究中占有十分重要的地位。介绍了综合评价方法之一模糊数学的基本原理及其分类,并对模糊数学在烟草科学研究中的应用进展进行了综述。     

The effectiveness of contractual and trust‐based governance in strategic alliances under behavioral and environmental uncertainty

Research summary: We examine the interplay of behavioral and environmental uncertainty in shaping the effectiveness of two key governance mechanisms used by strategic alliances: contractual and trust‐based governance. We develop and test hypotheses, using a meta‐analytic dataset encompassing over 15,000 strategic alliances across 82 independent samples. We find that contractual governance works best under low to moderate levels of behavioral uncertainty and moderate to high levels of environmental uncertainty, while it is detrimental to alliance performance when both types of uncertainty are low or high. Trust‐based governance is most effective at high levels of behavioral uncertainty and low levels of environmental uncertainty. It suffers a large loss of usefulness at high behavioral uncertainty as environmental uncertainty increases. Managerial summary: Strategic alliances allow firms to gain greater efficiency and create value. Yet, many such alliances fail because they are not able to deal with the twin challenges posed by behavioral and environmental uncertainty. Findings from our meta‐analysis imply that under conditions of high behavioral uncertainty and low‐to‐moderate levels of environmental uncertainty, the use of trust‐based governance alongside contractual governance might enhance the latter's effectiveness. The combined effectiveness of contractual and trust‐based governance under high levels of both behavioral and environmental uncertainty is not obvious. When both behavioral and environmental uncertainty are high, contractual governance hurts alliance performance while trust‐based governance does not function at its best either. Under these conditions, it might be better for firms to turn to hierarchy or vertical integration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Market Share Inequality,the Number of Competitors,and the HHI: An Examination of Bank Pricing

This paper seeks to determine whether the Herfindahl--Hirschman index (HHI) adequately accounts for the roles of market share inequality and the number of competitors in explaining bank deposit and loan rates. This is been done by estimating deposit-rate and loan-rate equations in which the HHI is decomposed into components that reflect share inequality and number of competitors and, alternatively, by adding measures of share inequality and the number of competitors as additional explanatory variables. Results are inconclusive in the case of deposit rates but suggest that the HHI does not give sufficient weight to the number of competitors in explaining loan rates.     

Toward a behavioral theory of real options: Noisy signals,bias, and learning

Research Summary: We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous uncertainty). This enables us to incorporate behavioral bias in the feedback learning process underlying the option execution/termination decision. The resulting computational model suggests that firms that inappropriately account for contemporaneous uncertainty and are subject to learning biases may experience substantial downside risk in undertaking real options. Moreover, contrary to the standard option result, greater uncertainty may decrease option value, making commitment to an investment path more effective than remaining flexible. Managerial Summary: Executives recognize the need to make uncertain investments to grow their business while mitigating downside risk. The analogy between financial options and real corporate investments provides an appealing method to consider the practical challenge of such investment decisions. Unfortunately, the “real options” analogy seems to break down in practice. We identify how a second form of uncertainty confounds real options intuition, leading managers to overestimate the value of uncertain investments. We present a behavioral real options model that accounts for both forms of uncertainty and suggest how uncertainty interacts with behavioral bias in the option execution/termination decision. Our model facilitates assessment of the conditions under which investments in uncertain opportunities are usefully considered as real options, and provides a means to evaluate their attractiveness.     

Governance and uncertainty: the trade-off between administrative control and commitment

This study elaborates upon the motives for initiating equity-based collaborations vs. acquisition of another firm already having a desired technology. We characterize both minority direct investments and joint ventures as options to defer either internal development or acquisition of a target firm. In domains where learning about growth opportunities dominates investment activity, this incremental mode of governance economizes on the cost of committing resources to a technology with an uncertain value. Using a sample of 402 transactions in the biotechnology industry, we find strong support for the theoretical model. The findings suggest that the cost of commitment in the face of technological uncertainty may offset the administrative benefits of hierarchical governance. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Channel relationship and business uncertainty: Evidence from the Hong Kong market

This study examines the dynamics of channel relationships between an end user and multiple suppliers in Hong Kong, a major international logistics hub in Asia. Drawing on the literature on channel relationships, we examine the links between different channel relationship variables and the contingent effect of business uncertainty on the links between these variables and supplier commitment. The results of the study indicate that expected relationship continuity mediates the effects of trust and relationship quality on commitment. Furthermore, the positive effect of trust on commitment is found to be stronger when business uncertainty is high than when business uncertainty is low. As supply chain management is becoming essential for firms to succeed in today's business, industrial marketing managers need to be aware of the dynamics in channel relationships and to better manage their supply chains. The implications of our findings for research and for the practice of channel relationship management are provided.     

The impact of trust and contract on innovation performance: The moderating role of environmental uncertainty

Research into two important control mechanisms for managing the supply chain relationship - contracts and trust - is on the rise. However, our understanding of how they influence innovation in a firm remains rather unclear. Thus, the primary objective of this study is to examine the individual and interactive effects of contracts and trust on firms' innovation performance and the contingent effects of environmental uncertainty on those relationships in China. The empirical results from a survey of Chinese manufacturing firms indicate that there is a positive relationship between trust and firms' innovation performance, an inverted U-shaped relationship between the use of contracts and firms' innovation performance, and that contracts and trust are substitutes. Moreover, we find that environmental uncertainty enhances the effects of trust, but does not influence the impact of contracts on innovation performance.     

Unsupervised KDD to creatively support managers' decision making with fuzzy association rules: A distribution channel application

To be competitive in contemporary turbulent environments, firms must be capable of processing huge amounts of information, and effectively convert it into actionable knowledge. This is particularly the case in the marketing context, where problems are also usually highly complex, unstructured and ill-defined. In recent years, the development of marketing management support systems has paralleled this evolution in informational problems faced by managers, leading to a growth in the study (and use) of artificial intelligence and soft computing methodologies. Here, we present and implement a novel intelligent system that incorporates fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms to operate in an unsupervised manner. This approach allows the discovery of interesting association rules, which can be linguistically interpreted, in large scale databases (KDD or Knowledge Discovery in Databases.) We then demonstrate its application to a distribution channel problem. It is shown how the proposed system is able to return a number of novel and potentially-interesting associations among variables. Thus, it is argued that our method has significant potential to improve the analysis of marketing and business databases in practice, especially in non-programmed decisional scenarios, as well as to assist scholarly researchers in their exploratory analysis.     

Environmental uncertainty and environmental scanning activities of nigerian manufacturing executives: A comparative analysis

This study investigated the relationship between perception of environmental uncertainty (PEU) and environmental scanning behavior of Chief Executive Officers of 47 manufacturing firms in Nigeria. The results indicated that perceived uncertainty in the environment was significantly higher for the task environment sectors than for the remote environment sectors; and as perceived uncertainty increased in a sector of the environment, scanning frequency and scanning interests also increased. The results were compared with those of prior research in the area of environmental scanning. The results show both the economic and political legal sectors of the environment to be more salient for Nigerian manufacturing executives than for their American counterparts.     

Interlocks and firm performance: The role of uncertainty in the directorate interlock‐performance relationship

We examine how uncertainty influences the performance effects of directorate interlocks. Our study offers a new perspective of directorate interlocks as mechanisms that enable firms to improve performance when confronted with greater uncertainty, suggesting that uncertainty positively moderates the interlock‐performance relationship. This contrasts with the view based on resource dependence theory suggesting networks reduce uncertainty and enhance firm performance, implying that uncertainty mediates the interlock effect upon performance. Using a sample of 3,745 firms across manufacturing industries in the United States during the period 2001–2009, we find support for the moderation argument and less convincing support for mediation, suggesting that firms may not form interlocks necessarily to reduce uncertainty. Instead, firms may create interlocks to enable adaptation and enhance performance when confronted by uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

反垄断、规制与产业组织研究新进展--中国工业经济研究与开发促进会2005年年会暨产业组织与政府规制研讨会学术观点综述

本文对中国工业经济研究与开发促进会2005年年会暨产业组织与政府规制研讨会的主要学术观点进行了介绍，综述了反垄断、规制与产业组织研究的新进展，涉及纵向限制、双边市场、网络融合、集体谈判等前沿内容。     

美国现行反垄断法对软件产业的适用性探析--以搭售和掠夺性定价为例

本文对软件产业的搭售与掠夺性定价行为进行了法律和经济分析。在美国现行的反垄断法体系中，这是属于典型的滥用市场势力的两种行为。但在软件产业却不能凭借传统标准简单地把这两种行为归结为垄断行为，而应从产业本身的特点和竞争环境出发谨慎对待。如一味运用美国现行的反垄断法惩罚软件产业正当的竞争行为，只会从更大程度上抑制竞争，损害消费者福利。在网络经济条件下，反垄断法应该顺应经济和技术的     

大宝山矿区河流沿岸土壤重金属污染分析与评价

由于对土壤环境的分析与研究存在着一定的不确定性,使用模糊数学的评价方法对于不定量的研究具备比较精确和细化的作用,能够为涉及土壤重金属污染等具有相对较模糊和不能量化特征的学科提供较为精确的研究方法。通过对韶关市大宝山重金属矿区的矿山开发和土壤重金属污染现状采取实地调查和取样分析,在大宝山矿区的上、下游以所选取5个区域土壤的Cd,Cr,Pb,Cu,Ni,Zn等6种重金属元素的含量作为样本数据,结合模糊数学理论在重金属污染评价方面的应用,建立模糊评价模型进行分析,其结果表明矿区下游区域土壤的重金属污染主要致灾污染因子为矿山开采所导致的重金属污染。并且,凉桥、水楼下、石柱下、上坝和下坝村等大宝山下游区域土壤中的Cd,Cu,Pb等重金属元素含量均已超过国家土壤质量标准(GB 15618-1995)规定的土壤二级标准值。     

Linking joint value creation to the interplay of competition and cooperation: A fuzzy set approach

The aim of this paper is to explore the link between joint value creation and the varying nature of simultaneity. Joint value creation is a central concept in cooperative strategies and more broadly in the strategic management field. When cooperating with competitors firms have value creation intent, but face conflicting logics arising from the simultaneous pursuit of cooperation and competition. This study adopts a two continua approach to analyze coopetition at both the department level and the organizational level.We explore the conjunctural causality based on two multipartner alliances in the pharmaceutical industry. The fsQCA allows detecting multiple causal paths between different intensities of cooperation and competition at both the department and the firm levels (conditions) to joint value creation (outcome). A key contribution of this paper is the conceptualization and empirical demonstration of the relation between the joint value creation and the coopetition intensity. Different types of coopetition engagements generate different outcomes in terms of joint value creation. The results show that high intensity of cooperation combined with high intensity of competition is significant for joint value creation. Unbalanced intensities of both elements, as well as low coopetition intensity, do not lead to joint value creation.     

模糊解耦控制器设计及应用

针对串联解耦控制鲁棒性较差的问题,提出了模糊解耦控制方案,并将此方法应用于青霉素结晶过程的控制中,仿真结果表明该方案简单、易行,鲁棒性得到了提高。     

Technology,change, and uncertainty: maintaining career confidence in the early 21st century

Over the coming decades, technology and automation are expected to dramatically transform how work will be undertaken. While many of these developments will improve productivity and provide new opportunities, some jobs will likely disappear. In this article, we report data from in‐depth interviews undertaken with 51 young Australians about their strategies for managing the possibility of technological disruption in the workplace. In the face of future uncertainties, we found that the majority of our participants remained confident in their ability to maintain for themselves a ‘good’ career story. We posit, however, that those who could neither avoid nor reduce the possibility that technological advancements might jeopardise their career plans demonstrated an outlook of career malleability whereby they accepted the risk yet remained subjectively confident in their own capacity to rewrite their career narrative if, or when, circumstances demanded.