关于当前就业问题和就业制度的分析及对策探讨

随着我国高校毕业生数量的增加,大学生的就业问题也日益严峻,民工荒问题凸现。本文结合自身工作实践,就当前的就业问题和制度进行初步分析和对策探讨。     

The Living Wage and the Effects of Real Minimum Wages on Part-Time and Teen Employment

In many parts of the country, campaigns are being carried out and laws are being passed whose aim is to establish, among other things, standards for contracting out public services and setting acceptable living wages that will provide employees decent living standards. Living wages have economic consequences on employment of different groups of workers such as part-time, teenagers, and women and detailed data are needed to measure those effects. In the absence of such data and because of the strong link between living and minimum wages, this study tests the potential impact of living wages by using the model of minimum wages. The study documents a negative and significant relationship between real minimum wages and the employment levels of the various groups. The study also recommends better training and education, free competition in the labor market, and fair compensation based on the workers productivity as justifiable means to achieve a sustainable level of living wages without causing an unemployment repercussion.     

Self-employment of immigrants and natives in Sweden – a multilevel analysis

Recent research suggests that self-employment among immigrants is due to a combination of multiple situational, cultural and institutional factors, all acting together. Using multilevel regression and unique data on the entire population of Sweden for the year 2007, this study attempts to quantify the relative importance for the self-employed of embeddedness in ethnic contexts (country of birth) and regional business and public regulatory frameworks (labour market areas). This information indicates whether the layers under consideration are valid constructs of the surroundings that influence individual self-employment. The results show that 10% (women) and 8% (men) of the total variation in individual differences in self-employment can be attributed to the country of birth. When labour market areas are included in the analyses, the share of the total variation increases to 14% for women and 12% for men. The results show that the ethnic context and the economic environment play a minor role in understanding individual differences in self-employment levels. The results can have important implications when planning interventions or other actions focusing on self-employment as public measures to promote self-employment often are based on geographic areas and ethnic contexts.     

Cost‐ and Income‐based Measures of Human Capital

Human capital is increasingly believed to play an important role in the growth process, however, adequately measuring its stock remains controversial. In this paper three general approaches to measurement are identified; cost‐based, income‐based and educational stock‐based. This survey focuses on the first two approaches and provides a critical review of the theories and their applications to data from a range of countries. Particular emphasis is placed upon the work of Jorgenson and Fraumeni (1989, 1992) and some new results for New Zealand based upon their approach are also presented.     

A Meta‐Analysis of β‐Convergence: the Legendary 2%

Abstract.  The topic of convergence is at the heart of a wide‐ranging debate in the growth literature, and empirical studies of convergence differ widely in their theoretical backgrounds, empirical specifications, and in their treatment of cross‐sectional heterogeneity. Despite these differences, a rate of convergence of about 2% has been found under a variety of different conditions, resulting in the widespread belief that the rate of convergence is a natural constant. We use meta‐analysis to investigate whether there is substance to the 'myth' of the 2% convergence rate and to assess several unresolved issues of interpretation and estimation. Our data set contains approximately 600 estimates taken from a random sample of empirical growth studies published in peer‐reviewed journals. The results indicate that it is misleading to speak of a natural convergence rate since estimates of different growth regressions come from different populations, and we find that correcting for the bias resulting from unobserved heterogeneity in technology levels leads to higher estimates of the rate of convergence. We also find that correcting for endogeneity of the explanatory variables has a substantial effect on the estimates and that measures of financial and fiscal development are important determinants of long‐run differences in per capita income levels. We show that although the odds of a study being published is not uniform for studies with different p ‐values, publication bias has no significant effect on the conclusions of the analysis.     

民营经济就业现状的实证研究

就业是中国经济发展的长期约束条件,就业问题的解决对中国当前具有重要的理论和现实意义。民营经济的发展对促进就业起了十分重要的作用,本文认为就业的增长点是民营经济的发展。通过实证研究分析邵东县民营经济发展与就业增长之间的相互关系。最后得出结论并提出发展民营经济的几点建议。     

Games Economists Play: A Survey of Non‐Computerized Classroom‐Games for College Economics

The bulk of this unusual paper consists of an extensive online annotated compilation of 113 non‐computerized classroom‐games, most of which can be played within one class period, to assist in the teaching of college‐level basic micro and macroeconomic concepts (see http://www.aug.edu/~sbajmb or http://www.marietta.edu/~delemeeg ).
The paper itself consists of three major sections. The first catalogues, summarizes, and provides sample annotations of the games we collected. Section two makes a number of observations about the games. For instance, we notice an imbalance between games for microeconomics (many) and games for macroeconomics (few). We also detail which standard introductory economics topics are covered well and which are not covered well or missing altogether. For example, we observe that few games exist to present the proper economic role of government in economic affairs. The third section surveys the available literature on the costs and benefits of playing games in the classroom. In particular, our survey reveals that existing studies consider costs and benefits to students and instructors only partially, and we lay out a matrix that should help in the design of improved studies on the efficacy of gaming in the classroom.     

Non‐Mandatory Approaches to Environmental Protection

The approach to environmental protection has been evolving from a regulation‐driven, adversarial 'government‐push' approach to a more proactive approach involving voluntary and often 'business‐led' initiatives to self‐regulate their environmental performance. This has been accompanied by increasing provision of environmental information about firms and products to enlist market forces and communities in creating a demand for corporate environmental self‐regulation by signaling their preferences for environmentally friendly firms. This paper provides an overview of the non‐mandatory approaches being used for environmental protection and surveys the existing theoretical literature analyzing the economic efficiency of such approaches relative to mandatory approaches. It also discusses empirical findings on the factors motivating self‐regulation by firms and its implications for their economic and environmental performance. It examines the existing evidence on the extent to which information disclosure is effective in generating pressures from investors and communities on firms to improve their environmental performance.     

The Long‐Run implications of Growth Theories

This paper draws attention to some possible misunderstandings concerning the place of long‐run outcomes in growth theory. It argues that the traditional emphasis on these outcomes is often misguided. As a result of this emphasis, too much attention is paid to the role of knife‐edge assumptions, and researchers may be led to interpretations of the evidence, or models of the growth process, that are not wholly sensible.     

对中国通货膨胀的实证研究——从一般到特殊的建模方法

本文采用从一般到特殊的建模方法,利用PcGets软件,实证考察了1994~2009年中国通货膨胀与货币供应、产出缺口、汇率和国际原油价格之间的联系。研究表明,通货膨胀和货币供应之间存在长期稳定的正相关关系,但通货膨胀并不完全是货币现象。除货币供应外,还有其他更多重要变量共同决定通货膨胀的变化。产出缺口与通货膨胀之间存在显著关系,因而不能忽视汇率因素对通货膨胀的影响等。     

中国政府公务人员规模和结构的实证分析

中国现有政府公务人员规模总量较大,能够适应政府履职的需要,面临的主要问题是膨胀压力巨大、分布结构不尽合理。调整的思路是结合行政体制改革,在控制总量的前提下加大分布结构调整的力度,提高人员使用效率。     

A Meta‐Analysis of the International Gender Wage Gap

Abstract.  Since the early 1970s, a number of authors have calculated gender wage differentials between women and men of equal productivity. This meta‐study provides a new quantitative review of this vast amount of empirical literature on gender wage differentials as it concerns not only differences in methodology, data, and time periods, but also different countries. We place particular emphasis on a proper consideration of the quality of the underlying study which is done by a weighting with quality indicators. The results show that data restrictions – i.e. the limitation of the analysis to new entrants, never‐marrieds, or one narrow occupation only – have the biggest impact on the resulting gender wage gap. Moreover, we are able to show what effect a misspecification of the underlying wage equation – like the frequent use of potential experience – has on the calculated gender wage gap. Over time, raw wage differentials worldwide have fallen substantially; however, most of this decrease is due to better labor market endowments of females.     

The Built‐in Flexibility of Income and Consumption Taxes

This paper reviews, and synthesises within a uniform framework, a number of analytical results on the built‐in flexibility of taxation. Established results for income taxes are reviewed and integrated with recent results for consumption taxes. These help to provide a better understanding of the determinants of the revenue responsiveness properties of different taxes. They also provide convenient expressions for the calculation of tax revenue elasticities in practice. It is shown that the magnitude of revenue elasticities can be expected to differ substantially for alternative taxes, for different forms of the same tax, and for the same tax over time as incomes change relative to tax thresholds and as consumption patterns change. These results are especially relevant for the many industrialised countries which have undertaken major fiscal reforms in recent years with, often unintended, consequences for revenue elasticities.     

The Effectiveness of Anti‐Smoking Legislation: A Review

Abstract.  This survey focuses on government efforts to curb the use of undesirable goods, notably tobacco products. We synthesize the economics literature and examine the effectiveness of government curbs on tobacco consumption through non‐price controls (such as bans on cigarette advertising, health warnings, and workplace smoking bans) and price measures (or higher prices through higher taxes). This literature review is unique in that we do not merely aim to provide a summary of the literature. Rather, our main focus is to draw conclusions from the literature regarding the effectiveness of alternate policy measures across countries in checking smoking and to provide directions/suggestions for extending the scope of government intervention to other tobacco products.     

大学生就业质量影响因素实证研究

本文在借鉴国外理论的基础上,通过建立计量模型,从宏观层面分析我国大学生就业质量的影响因素,以及各影响因素与大学生就业质量之间的量化关系。研究结果表明,大学扩招政策以及大学毕业生数量对于我国大学生就业质量具有显著的负面影响,而经济发展水平、第三产业发展引起的经济结构变迁和高等教育经费投入则均具有显著的正面效应。     

大学生兼职经历与就业关系的实证研究

借助2所高校549份调查问卷数据,运用有序Probit模型探究大学生兼职经历与其未来就业的关系,得到以下结论:大学生的兼职经历在其毕业后工作搜寻和选择中发挥重要作用,显著影响其未来工作的质量;大学生兼职经历的就业效应受到兼职工种选择、时间安排和兼职动机等调节变量的影响.有针对性地筛选兼职工作,平衡兼职与理论学习关系以及明确兼职目的对提升兼职的就业效应具有重要意义.     

Meta‐Regression Analysis: A Quantitative Method of Literature Surveys

Abstract.  Pedagogically, literature reviews are instrumental. They summarize the large literature written on a particular topic, give coherence to the complex, often disparate, views expressed about an issue, and serve as a springboard for new ideas. However, literature surveys rarely establish anything approximating unanimous consensus. Ironically, this is just as true for the empirical economic literature. To harmonize this dissonance, we offer a quantitative methodology for reviewing the empirical economic literature. Meta‐regression analysis (MRA) is the regression analysis of regression analyses. MRA tends to objectify the review process. It studies the processes that produce empirical economic results as though they were any other social scientific phenomenon. MRA provides a framework for replication and offers a sensitivity analysis for model specification. In this brief essay, we propose a new method of reviewing economic literature, MRA, and discuss its potential.     

Non‐linear Dynamics in the Infinite Time Horizon Model

Using results from the theory of non‐linear dynamical systems, it has been shown that optimal growth theory can provide new explanations for business cycles and for international differences in growth and development. The present survey concentrates on this aspect of optimal growth theory, that is on the possibility of fluctuations and non‐uniqueness in models of optimal capital accumulation. It is a selective survey on non‐linear dynamics in infinite time horizon models of optimal growth.     

A Meta‐Analytic Assessment of the Effect of Immigration on Wages

Abstract.  In our increasingly interconnected and open world, international migration is becoming an important socioeconomic phenomenon for many countries. Since the early 1980s, many studies about the impact of immigration on host labour markets have been undertaken. Borjas (2003 , The labor demand curve is downward sloping: reexamining the impact of immigration on the labor market. Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(4): 1335–1374) noted that the estimated effect of immigration on the wage of native workers varies widely from study to study and sometimes even within the same study. In addition, these effects cluster around zero. Such a small effect is a rather surprising outcome, given that in a closed competitive labour market an increase in labour supply may be expected to exert a downward pressure on wages. We revisit this issue by applying meta‐analytic techniques to a set of 18 papers, which altogether generated 348 estimates of the percentage change in the wage of a native worker with respect to a 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of immigrants over native workers. While many studies in our database employ US data, estimates are also obtained from Germany, The Netherlands, France, Norway, Austria, Israel and Australia. Our analysis shows that results vary across countries and are inter alia related to the type of modelling approach. Technical issues such as publication bias and quality of the estimates are addressed as well.     

生产者服务进口对中国就业效应的实证研究

通过对生产者服务进口影响中国就业的效应进行实证研究发现,长期而言,生产者服务进口额每增加1%,服务业的就业将会增加0.24%,但对制造业就业并没有显著影响。其中,信息服务进口对服务业和制造业就业都没有显著影响;交通运输服务进口额每增加1%,制造业(服务业)的就业水平将会增长0.147%(0.275%);其他商业服务进口额每增加1%,服务业的就业水平将增加0.189%,但对制造业就业没有显著影响。短期而言,生产者服务进口对就业同时产生促进效应,但效应较小。政府应降低生产者服务进口壁垒以促进国内就业水平的提高。