宏观税收调控模型与宏观经济政策效用分析

通过对宏观税收调控模型的分析可以看出,实现经济的持续增长,从税收的角度看,就是要发挥其调节作用,促进资源的优化配置,调整和优化产业结构;从税收调控的角度看,税收分配在这一程度上制约着消费水平和各种消费的比例关系,调节着消费结构。     

宏观调控转换模式

实施积极财政政策是社会主义市场经济条件下反周期调节的一次成功的尝试。这一历史性决策、政策实施方式及政策的巨大成效,都将对我国经济社会发展产生深远的影晌。     

Macro foundations of micro-economics

This paper attempts to circumvent the nonsense of the representative agent which arises in macroeconomics. It recognises that macro data are relevant to agents' decisions, and so excess demands should contain macro variables as arguments. The macro variables I consider are the price index, unemployment and GNP. This paper should be regarded as a tentative beginning to make macroeconomic theory literate. Received: September 19, 2001; revised version: July 24, 2002 RID="*" ID="*"I am delighted to contribute to this Festschrift for Mordecai now that he has reached the appropriate age.     

马克思宏观经济思想研究--与西方经济学比较

马克思强调总量均衡基础上的结构均衡,在此基础上考察了经济增长问题,还对资本主义经济的不同发展阶段及失业现象做了研究,此外,马克思对货币经济及其对实物经济的深刻影响有着系统和详细的研究。     

Macro effects of interest-sensitive aggregate supply

This paper investigates the implications of the negative effect of the real interest rate on aggregate supply. The micro foundations of this effect are first explained. The effect is then incorporated into a dynamic macro model with inflation and rational expectations. If the wealth effect on consumption is large, an increased interest sensitivity of aggregate supply enhances stability. If the wealth effect is small, increased interest sensitivity of supply is stabilizing up to a point, and destabilizing beyond that. Furthermore, an increased interest sensitivity of aggregate supply enhances the positive effect of the monetary growth rate upon steady-state output, and it enhances the negative effect of government spending upon steady-state output.     

资本市场通胀理论与宏观调控

中国资本市场近年来快速膨胀又大幅调整,不断流出、流入这个市场的资金给宏观调控带来了前所未有的考验.通过分析Minsky的资本市场通胀理论以及对货币政策有效性的影响,对如何宏观调控中国资本市场和防止资本市场的大起大落提出了建议和意见.     

邓小平宏观经济管理思想探析

邓小平的宏观经济管理思想为建立我国宏观调控体系打下坚实的理论基础,确立了我国宏观调控体系建设与改革的大框架。我国在宏观调控方面所实施的财政和货币政策等方面的重大举措,都是以邓小平宏观经济管理思想为指导,以此建立的宏观调控体系对经济的平稳运行和现代化建设具有重大的现实意义。     

影响国际服务贸易的宏观因素

随着经济服务化程度的深化,服务贸易在国际贸易中的地位越来越突出。1980-2000年,世界货物贸易平均年增长率为59%,而商业服务贸易的平均年增长率为71%.增长速度的差异导致国际贸易结构的变动:1980年,国际商业服务贸易占世界贸易总额的152%,2000年,这一比重提高到186%.国际贸易格局之所以发生如此变化,原因在于发达国家纷纷把目光投向服务贸易,它们竞相抢滩国际服务贸易市场,包括对发展中国家施以越来越大的压力,要求后者实现服务贸易自由化。     

管理层收购:宏观意义与微观监管

管理层收购(MBO)对中国的宏观意义是在国有资产战略性重组过程中与国有股向外商转让、向民营企业转让并列的国有资产退出方式;它能有效激发国有企业干部员工的积极性,提高企业经营效益,促进国民经济增长的速度和质量;在明晰产权的基础上,MBO的发展有助于职业经理人的市场化,有助于建立现代企业制度,改善公司治理机制。因此国家应积极推动MBO,但为防范国有资产的流失,有必要坚持先规范后发展的原则。并加强MBO过程中的微观监管,包括在转让方式、转让价格、整体出售、融资安排与信息披露等方面的规范,使MBO得以规范有序地进行。     

Euler Equation Approach for Emerging-market Macro Models

This paper focuses on how to obtain numerical solutions to emerging-market DSGE models with occasionally binding constraints by using the Euler equation, rather than using value functions of households. The main point is that the Euler-equation approach works in a fast and simple way for a variety of recent emerging-market macro models. An important reason behind this point is that it is relatively easy to pin down the functional form of aggregate equilibrium conditions in these models. The time-iteration method is applied to Euler equations of a small open-economy with overborrowings. It is discussed how to use the Euler equation approach to recent models of sovereign debt and to show that the presence of the Laffer-curve of debt-revenues leads us to use the piecewise parameterized-expectations approach.     

依据现实调整目标优化投资宏观调控

只有依据正确的目标，才能运用正确的手段，提高投资宏观调控的效率。当前对投资宏观调控目标的认识滞后于现实的需要。依据现实性和可操作性的原则，我们认为，应转变对投资效益的调控，将合理的投资结构作为宏观调控的首要目标。     

论宏观调控基本理念的转变--由深层次矛盾凸显而引致的政策调整问题

目前宏观调控的使命是要化解经济运行中的深层次矛盾。为此,必须先转变宏观调控的基本理念,其中主要是消费理 念、市场理念和收入理念。同时,还要及时调整有关的经济政策。     

当前宏观经济形势的思考

1992年后,中国国民经济的增速一直呈现为连续下滑趋势,1992年至1999年历年增长速度分别为14．2％、13．5％、12．6％、10．5％、9．6％、8．8％、7．8％和7．1％。与国民经济增速下滑相应的就业形势日趋严峻,实际失业率不断上升和居高不下。更令人担忧的是物价连续走低,通货紧缩状况困扰经济发展。产业投资回报状况恶化,增量资金找不到有利的投资领域,金融资本被迫不断降低利率,银行存贷款利率自1996年5月至1999年6月,连续七次下调,居民存款利率三年降幅达79．51％,流动资金贷款利率降幅达46．72％。     

论我国宏观税负的形成机理

宏观税负作为一定时期私人部门因国家课税而放弃的资源总量，在市场经济条件下，也从总体上代表着政府对整个社会财富的占用程度及在经济中的地位，并因此而成为所有财税问题的核心问题。我国宏观税负的形成是多种因素综合作用的结果，这些因素既包括各国共有的一般因素，也包括一定时期我国自身的特殊因素。     

Uncertainty and Learning in Stochastic Macro Models

Limits on information have deep economic impact and affect the conduct of economic policy. In the present paper we explore the effect of substantive uncertainty in a macro model, from both an analytical and methodological point of view. Agents are boundedly rational and make their forecasts according to different techniques and try to learn the values of the various parameters. In this context, a Markov regime switching rule, a VAR system, and recursive least square are considered and compared. As a result, we obtain a model which is mostly keynesian in nature that can be compared with the new neoclassical synthesis models. Simulations are carried out and show the possible appearence of endogenous and persistent fluctuations.     

Structural Reform, Macro Policies and Income Distribution

Since the mid-1980s, Australia has been under considerable pressure to restructure its economy. This restructuring has been necessitated by the need to generate surpluses in its external trade account in order to meet the growing interest payments on its foreign debt. To facilitate this process of restructuring, the Commonwealth Government initially used two macro policies that have the desired structural effects: ‘wage moderation’ and ‘fiscal management’. In this paper, we examine the distributional effects of these policies. The analysis depends on simulations using an extended version of the ORANI model of the Australian economy, taken in conjunction with unit record data from an updated version of the 1981–82 Income and Housing Survey database.     

宏观税负的影响因素分析

宏观税负问题是国家税收制度和税收政策的核心内容,是分析国家宏观经济政策、财政税收政策的主要内容。本文首先从宏观税负度量口径和影响因素两个角度对现有国内外相关文献进行了较为详细的回顾,然后从基本理论入手。深入分析了影响宏观税负的经济因素、政府因素和制度因素等三个因素。文章指出,经济发展水平和产业结构不仅影响宏观税负水平,而且经济与宏观税负的相互作用表明,合理的宏观税负水平应当立足于经济发展现状,考虑纳税人的承受能力,同时又能使税收对经济发展发挥必要的调控作用;政府的职能范围和支出结构将影响宏观税负的高低以及微观主体对宏观税负水平的评价;而一国的税收制度和政策以及征收管理能力等制度因素则对宏观税负水平的高低产生直接影响。     

Macro effects of capital requirements and macroprudential policy

I investigate macro effects of higher bank capital requirements on the Norwegian economy and their use as a macroprudential policy instrument under Basel III. To this end, I develop a macroeconometric model where the capital adequacy ratio, lending rates, asset prices and credit interact with each other and with the real economy. The empirical results suggest that changes in capital requirements are primarily transmitted via lending rates to the other variables in the model. The proposed increases in capital requirements under Basel III are found to have significant effects especially on house prices and credit. I also derive optimal paths for the countercyclical capital buffer in response to various shocks. The buffer is found to equal its imposed ceiling of 2.5% in response to most of the shocks considered while its duration varies in the range of 1–12 quarters depending on the shock and its persistence.     

浅论我国自主知识产权保护的宏观举措

针对自主知识产权的定义和特征,分析了我国自主知识产权 保护应采取的宏观举措。     

基于理性预期的宏观计量模型研究

理性预期在现代宏观经济学中起着重要的作用。传统的宏观计量经济模型没有考虑到理性预期的影响。因此,受到理性预期学派的批评。文章明确引入理性预期,建立了基于中国数据的月度宏观计量模型。在此基础上,文章系统分析了宏观经济中各种变量之间的关系,以及政府政策对宏观经济的影响。