Political economy, sectoral shocks, and border enforcement

In this paper, we examine the correlation between sectoral shocks and border enforcement in the United States, the U.S. government's main policy instrument for combating illegal immigration. We see whether border enforcement falls following positive shocks to sectors that are intensive in the use of undocumented labour, as would be consistent with political economy models of illegal immigration. We find that border enforcement is negatively correlated with lagged relative price changes in the apparel, fruits and vegetables, and livestock industries and with housing starts in western United States, suggesting that authorities relax border enforcement when demand forundocumented labour is high.
Economie politique, chocs sectoriels et vigilance aux frontières. Dans ce mémoire, les auteurs examinent la corrélation entre les chocs sectoriels et la vigilance aux frontières aux Etats-Unis. La vigilance aux frontières est le principal instrument de politique publique utilisé par le gouvernement américain pour combattre l'immigration illégale. On se demande si la vigilance aux frontières se relâche à la suite de chocs positifs dans des secteurs qui utilisent relativement plus de travailleurs illégaux, ainsi que le suggèrent les modèles d'économie politique de l'immigration illégale. Les principaux résultats indiquent que la vigilance aux frontières est co-reliée négativement (avec un délai) avec les changements de prix relatifs dans les secteurs du vêtement, des fruits et légumes, et du bétail, ainsi qu'avec le nombre de mises en chantier dans la construction domiciliaire dans l'ouest des Etats-Unis. Voilà qui suggère que les autorités relâchent la vigilance aux frontières quand la demande de travailleurs illégaux augmente.     

Employment shocks and anti-EU sentiment

Euroscepticism and the rise of populist parties have often been linked to economic insecurity. This paper identifies regional employment changes as causal factors for forming attitudes towards the European Union and voting for eurosceptic parties in European Parliament elections. To do so, I combine industry-specific employment data for roughly 260 European NUTS II regions with individual-level Eurobarometer survey data for the past 20 years and regional voting results. I apply panel data and instrumental variable methods; for the latter I construct a Bartik-style instrument, which predicts employment changes on the basis of regional industry specialization and Europe-wide sector specific employment growth rates. The effect of employment changes on attitudes towards the EU is particularly strong for unemployed and low-skilled workers in regions with a high share of migrants from other European member states, which supports the narrative that ‘losers of globalization’ tend to be more skeptical towards economic and political integration.     

External income shocks and Turkish exports: A sectoral analysis

This study assesses how the growth rates of Turkish trading partners affected Turkish exports in various sectors for the period 1996:01 to 2009:12. To determine this, we modeled the destination countries and the export demand for each sector separately. Each model is estimated as a system of equations, where each equation represents a country using a seemingly unrelated regression method. The empirical evidence suggests that Motor Vehicles, Basic Metals, and Radio–Television are the sectors with the highest income elasticities for most of the analyzed countries, whereas the Food Products and Beverages sector has the lowest income elasticity. We also performed simulations for the effect of a 1% increase in the growth rate of each country on Turkish exports.     

Asset price fluctuations without aggregate shocks

We analyze the pricing of a productive asset in a class of dynamic exchange economies with heterogeneous, infinitely-lived agents, and self-enforcing intertemporal trades. Individual incomes fluctuate and are correlated; preferences, dividends and aggregate income are fixed. Almost all economies in this class have a unique stationary Markovian equilibrium with fluctuations in asset prices. As the set of unrationed households changes over time and states, excess demand functions shift, asset returns fluctuate, and some households are shut out of asset markets. Examples suggest that the amplitude of these movements is negatively correlated with the productivity of the asset and with the penalty for default.     

Relative importance of sectoral and aggregate sources of price changes

This paper estimates a dynamic common factor model to assess relative importance of the aggregate and the sector-specific factors that determine changes in the prices of individual products. It also examines how aggregate price changes are affected by these factors. Two different specifications of the model are estimated: the baseline model with one aggregate factor, and a second specification with two aggregate factors. In the one-actor model, the aggregate factor contributes little to the movements of changes in prices, mostly of nondurable goods whereas it seems to have important contributions to the movements of changes in prices of commodity groups mainly used as intermediate or capital goods. In the specification with two aggregate factors, the additional factor has significant effects on changes in prices of ‘farm products’ and ‘processed foods and feeds’ only. Forecast-error variance decompositions of both aggregate and disaggregate price changes suggest that sectoral factors account for most of the variability at short horizons while the contributions of the aggregate factors increase as the time horizon lengthens. The results also show that sectoral factors are not only important for relative price changes but also have significant impact on aggregate inflation. The estimated common factors have statistically significant correlations with money growth and changes in the unemployment rate.     

Employment and output effects of financial shocks

This paper develops a New Keynesian model featured with financial frictions in the form of an exogenous credit constraint to explore the employment and output effects of financial shocks. I show that the equity payout adjustment costs are crucial for the transmission mechanism of financial shocks. The model is estimated using the Bayesian methods and simulated using the observed exogenous shocks for two periods, 1954:III–1983:IV and 1984:I–2015:I. Overall, it is found that financial shocks can account for the observed dynamics of employment and output, especially the sharp decreases during the Great Recession 2007–2008. Additionally, the financial shock is the third and second biggest contributor to output and employment variations, respectively, in the earlier period, but it turns out to be the main source of employment and output fluctuations in the later period. I find that firms are faced higher equity payout adjustment costs in the period 1984:I–2015:I, which accounts for greater variations in the equity payouts in the period.     

Heterogeneous productivity shocks,elasticity of substitution and aggregate fluctuations

We use a Dixit-Stiglitz setting to show that aggregate productivity fluctuations can be generated through changes in the dispersion of firms’ productivity. When the elasticity of substitution among goods is larger than one, an increase in the dispersion raises aggregate productivity because firms at the top of the distribution produce most of output. When the elasticity is smaller than one, an increase in the dispersion reduces aggregate productivity because firms at the bottom of the distribution use most of inputs. We use individual firm level data from Spanish manufacturing firms to test the relationship between the dispersion of firms’ productivity and aggregate productivity. The estimated coefficients are consistent with the predictions of the model: we find that an increase in the coefficient of variation of firms productivity of 1% increases aggregate productivity by 0.16% in sectors with an elasticity of substitution larger than one while the same increase in the standard deviation reduces aggregate productivity by 0.36% in sectors with an elasticity of substitution smaller than one.     

Goods market responses to trade shocks and trade and wages decompositions

Abstract.  Trade and wages literature asks whether trade or technology has been the major factor behind increases in wage inequality in OECD countries since the 1980s. In this literature, little attention has been paid to how goods market responses to trade shocks affect conclusions. Using an Armington heterogeneous goods trade model we capture demand side effects, and show how trade shocks affecting the price of unskilled‐intensive importable goods can be absorbed on the demand side of goods markets, with little or no impact on relative wage rates. No wage impact occurs if the elasticity of substitution in preferences between imports and import substitutes is one. As this elasticity increases, trade plays an ever larger role in explaining wage inequality changes, and as the elasticity goes below one the sign of the effect changes. We present some results of general equilibrium decompositions of total wage change into trade and technology components using UK data. We suggest that since many import demand elasticity estimates are in the neighbourhood of one, there is a prima facie case that goods market considerations further lower the significance of trade as an explanation of recent trends in OECD wage inequality beyond that claimed in the literature.     

The impact of sectoral shifts and the aggregate labour market on unemployment duration

This study investigates the effects of sectoral shifts among industries on unemployment duration. These effects are decomposed into two subeffects: the overall effect and the specific industrial effect. The former is equal for all of the unemployed in all industries, while the latter depends on the tightness of the demand for labour of the industry in question. In addition, the impact of the aggregate labour market on unemployment duration is also explored. The empirical results show that most of the overall and all of the specific effects are significant, indicating that the sectoral shifts among industries as well as the aggregate labour market do in fact impact unemployment duration, and that the effects on unemployment duration vary in terms of their tightness in the different industrial labour markets.     

Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle

This paper implements the technique suggested by Den Haan (J Monet Econ 46:3–30, 2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The lead/lag approach provides a richer picture of the economic dynamics generating the data and allows one to investigate which variables lead or lag others, and whether the lead or lag pattern is short term or long term in nature. This technique is applied to monthly sectoral level employment data for the USA and shows that among the ten industrial sectors followed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, six tend to lead the other four. These six have high correlations indicating that the structural shocks generating the data movements are mostly in common. Among the four lagging industries, some lag by longer intervals than others and some have low correlations with the leading industries. These low correlations may indicate that these industries are partially influenced by structural shocks beyond those generating the six leading industries, but they also may indicate that lagging sectors feature a different transmission mechanism of shocks.     

Employment and wages with sector-specific shocks and worker moral hazard

We study a model of worker moral hazard with identical workers and where sectoral prices are subject to stochastic shocks. When firms are short-run maximizers, employment is shown to be distorted downward relative to the case of certain prices, and more so the higher is the current price. This implies that employment is relatively insensitive to sectoral output-price changes, and that average employment and output are reduced when price volatility increases. When firms can commit to future employment levels, employment is greater in low-demand states (implying labor hoarding), and thus even less sensitive to shocks, while average employment is less distorted downward by uncertainty. The model gives a new explanation of how increased sector-specific volatility can lead to output losses, and of the possibility of negative comovements of unemployment and turnover.     

Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology

Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology are meaningful but distinct concepts. We show that a slightly modified Solow productivity residual measures changes in economic welfare, even when productivity and technology differ because of distortions such as imperfect competition. Our results imply that aggregate data can be used to measure changes in welfare, even when disaggregated data are needed to measure technical change. We then present a general accounting framework that identifies several new non-technological gaps between productivity and technology, gaps reflecting imperfections and frictions in output and factor markets. Empirically, we find that these gaps are important, even though we abstract from variations in factor utilization and estimate only small average sectoral markups. The evidence suggests that the usual focus on one-sector DSGE models misses a rich class of important propagation mechanisms that are present only in multi-sector models.     

Competitive equilibria of economies with a continuum of consumers and aggregate shocks

This paper studies competitive equilibria of a production economy with aggregate productivity shocks. There is a continuum of consumers who face borrowing constraints and individual labor endowment shocks. The dynamic economy is described in terms of sequences of aggregate distributions. The existence of competitive equilibrium is proven and a recursive characterization is established. In particular, it is shown that for any competitive equilibrium, there is a payoff equivalent competitive equilibrium that is generated by a suitably defined recursive equilibrium.     

Growth responses to competitive shocks: Market structure dynamics under liberalisation

Liberalisation transforms market structures through the responses of incumbent firms and entrants to freedom of choice. Market shares tend to turn more volatile, and the agility and competitiveness of small, as against large, firms determine whether markets grow more concentrated, or less. We analyse the way these processes played out in Indian manufacturing industries over the 17-year period from 1981, spanning the domestic liberalisation of 1985 and the more comprehensive reforms of 1991. An observer looking at summary measures of market concentration might conclude that not much happened under either liberalisation episode. In fact, market share grew significantly more turbulent, and the relationship between market share-growth and initial share changed considerably. Domestic and comprehensive liberalisation saw different types of course corrections in these processes. But in both liberalisation episodes they tended to offset one another in their impact on observed market concentration, which therefore, changed little.     

Understanding the effects of technology shocks

The research led by Gali (AER 1999) and Basu et al. (AER 2006) raises two important questions regarding the validity of the RBC theory: (i) How important are technology shocks in explaining the business cycle? (ii) Do impulse responses to technology shocks found in the data reject the assumption of flexible prices? Using an RBC model, this paper argues that the conditional impulse responses of the U.S. economy to technology shocks are not grounds to reject the notion that technology shocks are the main driving force of the business cycle and the assumption of flexible prices, in contrast with the conclusions reached by the literature.     

Aggregate fluctuations from independent sectoral shocks: self-organized criticality in a model of production and inventory dynamics

This paper illustrates how fluctuations in aggregate economic activity can result from many small, independent shocks to individual sectors. The effects of the small independent shocks fail to cancel in the aggregate due to the presence of two non-standard assumptions: local interaction between productive units (linked by supply relationships), and non-convex technology. We also argue that neither feature on its own would suffice. In the case of a simple model, we explicitly calculate the distribution of aggregate activity in the limit of an infinite number of independently disturbed sectors.     

Non-neutral responses to money supply shocks when consumption and leisure are Pareto substitutes

Summary. To a greater extent than is often stressed in existing literature, preference assumptions affect responses to money shocks in equilibrium monetary models. Temporary money shocks can have persistent real effects if the marginal utility of leisure is a decreasing function of consumption, where leisure is measured as time endowment less market labor effort, and consumption refers to market produced goods. This condition is an empirically supported implication of home production models. Though not theoretically necessary for supporting the existence of short run real effects, the presence of distortionary taxes and endogenous productivity can have significant quantitative effects on responses to temporary money supply shocks. Received: August 21, 1996; revised version: February 3, 1997     

Learning,capital-embodied technology and aggregate fluctuations

Recent cyclical episodes in the U.S. and G-7 economies are asymmetric: recoveries and expansions tend to be long and gradual and busts tend to be short and sharp. A large body of work views the two recent cyclical U.S. episodes, namely, the “new economy” boom in the late 1990s, and the 2000s housing boom-bust as episodes where over-optimistic beliefs have played a significant role. These episodes have revived interest in expectations driven business cycles models. However, previous work in this area has not addressed the important asymmetry feature of business cycles. This paper takes a step towards addressing this limitation of expectations driven business cycle models. We propose a generalization of the Greenwood et al. (1988) model with vintage capital and learning about capital embodied productivity and show it can deliver fluctuations that are asymmetric as in the U.S. data. Learning, calibrated to match the procyclical forecast precision from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, is crucial for the model?s ability to generate asymmetries. Forecast errors generated by the model are shown to trigger recessions that mimic in magnitude, duration and depth the typical post WW II U.S. recession.     

Identification of technology shocks using misspecified VARs

Studies that evaluate the effects of technology shocks often employ structural VARs identified with long‐run restrictions. In the presence of a mismatch between the lag structures of the true data‐generating process and the adopted VAR, estimates based on long‐run restrictions can be biased. This paper offers a method that can reduce this bias substantially. Using artificial data, I assess the performance of the proposed method and find that it can outperform a range of alternative procedures. Applying the procedure to the US data, I find that per‐capita hours exhibit a positive hump‐shaped response profile in response to a technology shock.