Quantile cointegrating regression

Quantile regression has important applications in risk management, portfolio optimization, and asset pricing. The current paper studies estimation, inference and financial applications of quantile regression with cointegrated time series. In addition, a new cointegration model with quantile-varying coefficients is proposed. In the proposed model, the value of cointegrating coefficients may be affected by the shocks and thus may vary over the innovation quantile. The proposed model may be viewed as a stochastic cointegration model which includes the conventional cointegration model as a special case. It also provides a useful complement to cointegration models with (G)ARCH effects. Asymptotic properties of the proposed model and limiting distribution of the cointegrating regression quantiles are derived. In the presence of endogenous regressors, fully-modified quantile regression estimators and augmented quantile cointegrating regression are proposed to remove the second order bias and nuisance parameters. Regression Wald tests are constructed based on the fully modified quantile regression estimators. An empirical application to stock index data highlights the potential of the proposed method.     

Testing for functional misspecification in regression analysis

Recursive residuals may be used to detect functional misspecification in a regression equation. A simple t-statistic and a related Sign test may be constructed from the residuals. The powers of these tests compare favourably with the Durbin–Watson and other tests commonly used to detect functional misspecification from residuals. In addition the tests are relatively robust to serial correction in an otherwise correctly specified model, and this is a further point in their favour.     

Specification tests in nonparametric regression

Consider the location-scale regression model Y=m(X)+σ(X)?$Y=m(X)+\sigma (X)?$, where the error ?$?$ is independent of the covariate X, and m   and σ$\sigma$ are smooth but unknown functions. We construct tests for the validity of this model and show that the asymptotic limits of the proposed test statistics are distribution free. We also investigate the finite sample properties of the tests through a simulation study, and we apply the tests in the analysis of data on food expenditures.     

Relative error prediction in nonparametric deconvolution regression model

In this paper, we studied an alternative estimator of the regression function when the covariates are observed with error. It is based on the minimization of the relative mean squared error. We obtain expressions for its asymptotic bias and variance together with an asymptotic normality result. Our technique is illustrated on simulation studies. Numerical results suggest that the studied estimator can lead to tangible improvements in prediction over the usual kernel deconvolution regression estimator, particularly in the presence of several outliers in the dataset.     

The smoothing dichotomy in nonparametric regression under long-memory errors

The phenomenon of smoothing dichotomy in random-design nonparametric regression is exposed in nontechnical terms from two recent papers published jointly with Jan Mielniczuk. This concerns the asymptotic distribution of kernel estimators when the errors exhibit long-range dependence, being instantaneous functions either of Gaussian sequences or of infinite-order moving averages, depending on the amount of smoothing.     

Asymptotic theory for nonparametric regression with spatial data

Nonparametric regression with spatial, or spatio-temporal, data is considered. The conditional mean of a dependent variable, given explanatory ones, is a nonparametric function, while the conditional covariance reflects spatial correlation. Conditional heteroscedasticity is also allowed, as well as non-identically distributed observations. Instead of mixing conditions, a (possibly non-stationary) linear process is assumed for disturbances, allowing for long range, as well as short-range, dependence, while decay in dependence in explanatory variables is described using a measure based on the departure of the joint density from the product of marginal densities. A basic triangular array setting is employed, with the aim of covering various patterns of spatial observation. Sufficient conditions are established for consistency and asymptotic normality of kernel regression estimates. When the cross-sectional dependence is sufficiently mild, the asymptotic variance in the central limit theorem is the same as when observations are independent; otherwise, the rate of convergence is slower. We discuss the application of our conditions to spatial autoregressive models, and models defined on a regular lattice.     

Testing a linear regression model against nonparametric alternatives

Summary As a test statistic for testing goodness-of-fit of a linear regression model, we propose a ratio of quadratic forms measuring the distance between parametric and nonparametric fits, relative to the estimated error variance. The test statistic is a modification of the statistic suggested by H?rdle and Mammen (1988). The asymptotic distribution under the hypothesis is established. The finite sample behaviour of the test is investigated in a Monte Carlo study, and is illustrated for two applications.     

Gradient-based smoothing parameter selection for nonparametric regression estimation

Estimating gradients is of crucial importance across a broad range of applied economic domains. Here we consider data-driven bandwidth selection based on the gradient of an unknown regression function. This is a difficult problem given that direct observation of the value of the gradient is typically not observed. The procedure developed here delivers bandwidths which behave asymptotically as though they were selected knowing the true gradient. Simulated examples showcase the finite sample attraction of this new mechanism and confirm the theoretical predictions.     

Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions

In this paper, we consider bootstrapping cointegrating regressions. It is shown that the method of bootstrap, if properly implemented, generally yields consistent estimators and test statistics for cointegrating regressions. For the cointegrating regression models driven by general linear processes, we employ the sieve bootstrap based on the approximated finite-order vector autoregressions for the regression errors and the first differences of the regressors. In particular, we establish the bootstrap consistency for OLS method. The bootstrap method can thus be used to correct for the finite sample bias of the OLS estimator and to approximate the asymptotic critical values of the OLS-based test statistics in general cointegrating regressions. The bootstrap OLS procedure, however, is not efficient. For the efficient estimation and hypothesis testing, we consider the procedure proposed by Saikkonen [1991. Asymptotically efficient estimation of cointegration regressions. Econometric Theory 7, 1–21] and Stock and Watson [1993. A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrating systems. Econometrica 61, 783–820] relying on the regression augmented with the leads and lags of differenced regressors. The bootstrap versions of their procedures are shown to be consistent, and can be used to do asymptotically valid inferences. A Monte Carlo study is conducted to investigate the finite sample performances of the proposed bootstrap methods.     

Goodness-of-fit tests based on series estimators in nonparametric instrumental regression

This paper proposes several tests of restricted specification in nonparametric instrumental regression. Based on series estimators, test statistics are established that allow for tests of the general model against a parametric or nonparametric specification as well as a test of exogeneity of the vector of regressors. The tests’ asymptotic distributions under correct specification are derived and their consistency against any alternative model is shown. Under a sequence of local alternative hypotheses, the asymptotic distributions of the tests are derived. Moreover, uniform consistency is established over a class of alternatives whose distance to the null hypothesis shrinks appropriately as the sample size increases. A Monte Carlo study examines finite sample performance of the test statistics.     

Asymptotic properties of the efficient estimators for cointegrating regression models with serially dependent errors

In this paper, we analytically investigate three efficient estimators for cointegrating regression models: Phillips and Hansen’s [Phillips, P.C.B., Hansen, B.E., 1990. Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. Review of Economic Studies 57, 99–125] fully modified OLS estimator, Park’s [Park, J.Y., 1992. Canonical cointegrating regressions. Econometrica 60, 119–143] canonical cointegrating regression estimator, and Saikkonen’s [Saikkonen, P., 1991. Asymptotically efficient estimation of cointegration regressions. Econometric Theory 7, 1–21] dynamic OLS estimator. We consider the case where the regression errors are moderately serially correlated and the AR coefficient in the regression errors approaches 1 at a rate slower than 1/T$1/T$, where T$T$ represents the sample size. We derive the limiting distributions of the efficient estimators under this system and find that they depend on the approaching rate of the AR coefficient. If the rate is slow enough, efficiency is established for the three estimators; however, if the approaching rate is relatively faster, the estimators will have the same limiting distribution as the OLS estimator. For the intermediate case, the second-order bias of the OLS estimator is partially eliminated by the efficient methods. This result explains why, in finite samples, the effect of the efficient methods diminishes as the serial correlation in the regression errors becomes stronger. We also propose to modify the existing efficient estimators in order to eliminate the second-order bias, which possibly remains in the efficient estimators. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that our modification is effective when the regression errors are moderately serially correlated and the simultaneous correlation is relatively strong.     

On kernel nonparametric regression designed for complex survey data

In this article, we consider nonparametric regression analysis between two variables when data are sampled through a complex survey. While nonparametric regression analysis has been widely used with data that may be assumed to be generated from independently and identically distributed (iid) random variables, the methods and asymptotic analyses established for iid data need to be extended in the framework of complex survey designs. Local polynomial regression estimators are studied, which include as particular cases design-based versions of the Nadaraya–Watson estimator and of the local linear regression estimator. In this paper, special emphasis is given to the local linear regression estimator. Our estimators incorporate both the sampling weights and the kernel weights. We derive the asymptotic mean squared error (MSE) of the kernel estimators using a combined inference framework, and as a corollary consistency of the estimators is deduced. Selection of a bandwidth is necessary for the resulting estimators; an optimal bandwidth can be determined, according to the MSE criterion in the combined mode of inference. Simulation experiments are conducted to illustrate the proposed methodology and an application with the Canadian survey of labour and income dynamics is presented.     

Model-calibration estimation of the distribution function using nonparametric regression

Nonparametric regression has only recently been employed in the estimation of finite population parameters in a model-assisted framework. This paper proposes a new calibration estimator for the distribution function using nonparametric methods to obtain the fitted values on which to calibrate. The proposed estimator is a genuine distribution function that presents several attractive features. In terms of relative efficiency and relative bias, the behaviour of the proposed estimator is compared to other known estimators in a limited simulation study on real populations.     

Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions

The paper investigates the usefulness of bootstrap methods for small sample inference in cointegrating regression models. It discusses the standard bootstrap, the recursive bootstrap, the moving block bootstrap and the stationary bootstrap methods. Some guidelines for bootstrap data generation and test statistics to consider are provided and some simulation evidence presented suggests that the bootstrap methods, when properly implemented, can provide significant improvement over asymptotic inference.     

Blockwise bootstrap wavelet in nonparametric regression model with weakly dependent processes

In this paper, we suggest a blockwise bootstrap wavelet to estimate the regression function in the nonparametric regression models with weakly dependent processes for both designs of fixed and random. We obtain the asymptotic orders of the biases and variances of the estimators and establish the asymptotic normality for a modified version of the estimators. We also introduce a principle to select the length of data block. These results show that the blockwise bootstrap wavelet is valid for general weakly dependent processes such as α-mixing, φ-mixing and ρ-mixing random variables.     

Consistent estimation of a general nonparametric regression function in time series

We propose an estimator of the conditional distribution of X_t|X_t−1,X_t−2,…, and the corresponding regression function , where the conditioning set is of infinite order. We establish consistency of our estimator under stationarity and ergodicity conditions plus a mild smoothness condition.     

A semiparametric cointegrating regression: Investigating the effects of age distributions on consumption and saving

We consider a semiparametric cointegrating regression model, for which the disequilibrium error is further explained nonparametrically by a functional of distributions changing over time. The paper develops the statistical theories of the model. We propose an efficient econometric estimator and obtain its asymptotic distribution. A specification test for the model is also investigated. The model and methodology are applied to analyze how an aging population in the US influences the consumption level and the savings rate. We find that the impact of age distribution on the consumption level and the savings rate is consistent with the life-cycle hypothesis.     

Efficient estimation for error component seemingly unrelated nonparametric regression models

Multivariate panel data provides a unique opportunity in studying the joint evolution of multiple response variables over time. In this paper, we propose an error component seemingly unrelated nonparametric regression model to fit the multivariate panel data, which is more flexible than the traditional error component seemingly unrelated parametric regression. By applying the undersmoothing technique and taking both of the correlations within and among responses into account, we propose an efficient two-stage local polynomial estimation for the unknown functions. It is shown that the resulting estimators are asymptotically normal, and have the same biases as the standard local polynomial estimators, which are only based on the individual response, and smaller asymptotic variances. The performance of the proposed procedure is evaluated through a simulation study and a real data set.     

On bootstrapping the mode in the nonparametric regression model with random design

In the nonparametric regression model with random design and based on i.i.d. pairs of observations (X _i, Y _i), where the regression function m is given by m(x)=?(Y _i|X _i=x), estimation of the location θ (mode) of a unique maximum of m by the location of a maximum of the Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimator for the curve m is considered. In order to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals for θ, the suitably normalized distribution of is bootstrapped in two ways: we present a paired bootstrap (PB) where resampling is done from the empirical distribution of the pairs of observations and a smoothed paired bootstrap (SPB) where the bootstrap variables are generated from a smooth bivariate density based on the pairs of observations. While the PB requires only relatively small computational effort when carried out in practice, it is shown to work only in the case of vanishing asymptotic bias, i.e. of “undersmoothing” when compared to optimal smoothing for mode estimation. On the other hand, the SPB, although causing more intricate computations, is able to capture the correct amount of bias if the pilot estimator for m oversmoothes. Received: May 2000     

Unbiased estimates for a lognormal regression problem and a nonparametric alternative

Given a normal sample with means \({{\bf x}_{1}^{\prime} {\bf \varphi}, \ldots, {\bf x}_{n}^{\prime} {\bf \varphi}}\) and variance v, minimum variance unbiased estimates are given for the moments of L, where log L is normal with mean \({{\bf x}^{\prime} {\bf \varphi}}\) and variance v. These estimates converge to wrong values if the normality assumption is false. In the latter case estimates based on any M-estimate of \({{\bf \varphi}}\) are available of bias \({O\left(n^{-1}\right)}\) and \({O\left(n^{-2}\right)}\). More generally, these are given for any smooth function of \({\left({\bf \varphi}, F\right)}\), where F is the unknown distribution of the residuals. The regression functions need not be linear.