Optimal monetary policy revisited: does considering US real-time data change things?

The primary goal of this article is to investigate whether properly modelling real-time data and optimal real-time decision-making of a monetary planner provides new insights into monetary policy behaviour and outcomes. This article extends a variant of the asymmetric preference model suggested by Ruge-Murcia to investigate the use of real-time data available to policymakers when making their decisions and revised data which more accurately measure economic performance, but is only available much later. In our extended model, the central banker targets a weighted average of revised and real-time inflation together with a weighted average of revised and real-time output. Moreover, we allow for an asymmetric central bank response to real-time data depending on whether the unemployment rate is high or low. Our model identifies several new potential sources of inflation bias due to data revisions. Our empirical results suggest that the Federal Reserve Bank focuses on targeting revised inflation during low unemployment periods, but it weighs heavily real-time inflation during high unemployment periods. The inflation bias due to data revisions is comparable in magnitude to the bias from asymmetric central banker preferences with the bias being somewhat larger during high unemployment.     

The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis

The financial crisis has deeply affected money markets and thus, potentially, the proper functioning of the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission. Therefore, we analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy in steering euro area money market rates by looking at (i) the predictability of money market rates on the basis of monetary policy expectations and (ii) the impact of extraordinary central bank measures on money market rates. We find that during the crisis money market rates up to 12 months still respond to revisions in the expected path of future rates, even though to a lesser extent than before August 2007. We attribute part of the loss in monetary policy effectiveness to money market rates being driven by higher liquidity premia and increased uncertainty about future interest rates. Our results also indicate that the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures as of October 2008 were effective in addressing the disruptions in the euro area money market. In fact, our estimates suggest that non-standard monetary policy measures helped to lower Euribor rates by more than 80 basis points. These findings show that central banks have effective tools at hand to conduct monetary policy in times of crises.     

The role of exchange rate in inflation targeting: the case of Turkey

ABSTRACT

The role of the exchange rates in emerging market economies that have adopted inflation targeting (IT) is a critical and contentious issue in the relevant literature. This article investigates whether an exchange rate-augmented Taylor rule describes the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) monetary policy. Covering the period from 2002:1 to 2017:8 it also explores possible nonlinearities in the reaction function of the CBRT by employing a Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) model. The linear estimation of the model highlighted the importance of the exchange rate in monetary policy under IT. The results of the nonlinear model indicate that the stance of monetary policy was asymmetric with respect to exchange rate movements during the conventional IT period. However, the asymmetric monetary policy stance disappeared in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Increasing considerations of financial stability undermined the asymmetric policy stance of the CBRT in the post-crisis period.     

Asymmetric monetary policy rules in Australia

In this study, the hypothesis that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) implements an asymmetric monetary policy rule is tested. We estimate both linear and asymmetric monetary policy reaction functions for the period before inflation targeting was adopted, for the period when inflation targeting was explicitly adopted and for the full sample period. The results of the linear monetary policy rules are consistent with the estimates reported from other studies that estimate linear monetary policy rules for Australia. On the other hand, the results of estimating the asymmetric monetary policy rules for the pre-inflation targeting period shows that the RBA had reacted symmetrically, suggesting that it had acted with the same aggressiveness towards both inflation and output gaps of the same magnitude, over both phases of the business cycle. However, for the inflation targeting period, the results show that the RBA had reacted asymmetrically in its policy response to the inflation gap, output gap or both. A similar result is found for the full sample period. This asymmetric response supports the view that a non-linear monetary policy rule emanated from asymmetric preferences, rather than from the existence of a non-linear Phillips curve.     

基于资产价格影响的货币政策非对称性效应研究

利用NK-SVAR模型就我国货币政策的非对称性效应进行研究,结果表明,紧缩性货币政策的效果比较明显,而扩张性货币政策效果较弱.货币冲击的紧缩效应强于扩张效应,这表明抑制经济的过快增长时紧缩性的货币政策效果显著,但扩张性货币政策无法摆脱经济的恶性衰退.     

Stock Market Responses Under Quantitative Easing: State Dependence and Transparency in Monetary Policy

This paper evaluates the effects of unconventional monetary policies adopted by the Bank of Japan from the year 2001 to 2006. A new measure is proposed to identify a nontraditional monetary policy shock from policy packages under the zero lower bound of short‐term nominal interest rates during the quantitative easing period, using data on intraday 3‐month Euroyen futures rates. We find that stock markets do not react to a policy surprise in an expected manner and negatively respond to a monetary easing surprise. Moreover, we find an asymmetric response during a boom and a recession and a nonlinear reaction because of increasing uncertainty concerning future inflation dynamics and the enhancement of monetary policy transparency. Our result suggests that it is difficult to implement unconventional monetary policy to manage agents’ expectations and a ‘lean against the wind’ policy to prevent asset bubbles, particularly at the zero bound.     

货币政策对房地产价格调控的非对称效应——基于STR模型

从货币政策的非对称效应的角度,运用非线性模型——STR模型,探究了中国货币政策与房地产价格的关系。研究结果表明:货币政策对房地产价格的影响确实因所处经济周期阶段的不同而发生变化;货币政策与房地产价格之间存在非线性关系;不同经济增长水平下货币政策对房地产价格的调控效应是不对称的;在调控房地产价格方面,我国货币政策的信贷传导路径比利率传导路径更有效。     

Contemporary Monetary Policy in China: An Empirical Assessment

This paper focuses on monetary policy in China. A set of different specifications for the monetary policy reaction function are empirically evaluated using monthly data for 1998–2014. Overall, the performance of the estimated policy rules is surprisingly good. Chinese monetary policy displays countercyclical reactions to inflation and leaning‐against‐the‐wind behaviour. The paper shows a notable increase in the overall responsiveness of Chinese monetary policy over the course of the estimation period. The central bank interest rate is unresponsive to economic conditions during the earlier years of the sample, but response becomes significant in later years. This finding comports with the view that the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China has come to place greater weight on price‐based instruments. A time‐varying estimation procedure suggests that the two monetary policy objectives are generally assigned to different instruments. The money supply instrument continues to be utilized to control the price level. Since 2008, the interest rate instrument has been mainly used to achieve the targeted output growth.     

International monetary policy coordination under asymmetric shocks

This paper analyzes whether international monetary policy coordination is the best response to economic interdependence. The paper develops a macroeconomic model in which countries show different preferences regarding objectives when faced with asymmetric disturbances and analyzes in strategic terms how monetary policy can deal with real, monetary, and supply-side shocks. It further shows how the desirability of monetary policy coordination depends on the presence of asymmetric shocks and also on the nature of disturbances, the channel of transmission, and the asymmetry of preferences. Finally, the paper derives the conditions under which monetary policy coordination proves to be desirable.     

欧元体系财政与货币政策协调性分析

欧元区集中统一的货币政策和权力分散的财政政策 ,已有 4年多的实践历程 ,实践表明财政与货币政策协调性较差 ,欧盟的机构设置与政策结构的设计的确存在缺陷 ,采取扩张性货币政策缓解内部冲击与价格稳定首要目标已处于两难境地。实现统一的“大财政”,通过财政转移 ,重新配置资源 ,以帮助成员国吸收不对称冲击的影响 ,是提高欧元体系财政与货币政策协调性措施之一。     

An explanation for the price puzzle: Asymmetric information and expectation dynamics

Using theoretical and empirical analyses, this paper shows that the expectation dynamics induced by information asymmetry between the Central Bank (CB) and the public can cause the price puzzle. The signalling and learning dynamics between the CB and a representative private-sector agent under asymmetric information is investigated. Inflation positively reacts to contractionary monetary policy because the change in the interest rate is perceived as a signal of the CB’s private information about higher future inflation and output by the public. The empirical section of the paper validates this theoretical argument using a VAR specification about the US economy. Besides providing an explanation for the price puzzle, the results of this paper has practical implications about transparency and monetary policy. The theoretical and empirical findings indicate that asymmetric information causes significant frictions in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. These frictions induce short-run undesired effects like increase in expected inflation and actual inflation as a response to contractionary monetary policy which is identified as “the price puzzle”.     

Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy

In this study, we perform a quantitative assessment of the role of money as an indicator variable for monetary policy in the euro area. We document the magnitude of revisions to euro area-wide data on output, prices, and money, and find that monetary aggregates have a potentially significant role in providing information about current real output. We then proceed to analyze the information content of money in a forward-looking model in which monetary policy is optimally determined subject to incomplete information about the true state of the economy. We show that monetary aggregates may have substantial information content in an environment with high variability of output measurement errors, low variability of money demand shocks, and a strong contemporaneous linkage between money demand and real output. As a practical matter, however, we conclude that money has fairly limited information content as an indicator of contemporaneous aggregate demand in the euro area.     

Monetary policy effectiveness and stock market cycles in ASEAN-5

This article examines the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on real output in bull and bear phases of stock market in five ASEAN economies (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand) using the recently developed pooled mean group (PMG) technique. Stock market cycles are identified by employing Markov switching models and the rule-based nonparametric approach. Estimating the models using monthly data from 1991:1 to 2011:12, the results show that monetary policy (measured by short-term interest rate) has a negative and statistically significant long-run effect on real output in bull and bear market periods while the effects are stronger in bear periods than bulls. In the short run, there is no statistically significant relationship between monetary policy and real output. These results are consistent with finance constraints (capital market imperfection) models that predict that monetary policy is more effective during bear periods than bulls.     

Market‐Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations and Their Evolution Since the Introduction of the Euro

The paper considers the relation between monetary policy expectations and financial markets in the case of Europe. A number of money market instruments are compared, with the result that the 1‐month forward interest rates extracted from the Libor yield curve has the best prediction power of the future monetary policy path. These forward rates have been used to study the evolution of market expectations regarding the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). The sharp increases and the following decreases in interest rates during 2000–2001 have reduced the predictive power of money market instruments, but smoother management of interest rates and better communication from the ECB has helped to improve the forecasting power of money market instruments.     

Monetary environments and stock returns revisited: A quantile regression approach

We investigate the impact of monetary conditions on stock market returns at different points on the return distributions. Our results reveal no association between stock returns and monetary environments at the lower quantiles. At the upper quantiles, however, we find that expansive monetary conditions lead to significantly larger stock returns. The relationship between returns and monetary conditions at the upper quantiles is also found to be asymmetric, exhibiting a monotonic increase in responsiveness at successive quantiles.     

Fiscal Transfers in a Monetary Union with Exit Option

It is widely debated whether a monetary union has to be accompanied by a fiscal transfer scheme to accommodate asymmetric shocks. We build a model of a monetary union with a central bank and two heterogeneous countries that are linked by a fiscal transfer scheme with repercussions on monetary policy. A central bank aiming at securing the existence of a monetary union in the presence of asymmetric shocks has to compensate single countries for the tax distortions arising from fiscal transfers. Monetary policy may become more expansionary or restrictive depending on asymmetries between member countries' inflation aversion and exit costs.     

Cross‐country asymmetries in monetary policy transmission: evidence from EMU members

This paper analyzes monetary policy asymmetries in EMU participating countries. In particular, we use a structural dynamic modelling approach to investigate asymmetric monetary transmission in Europe. Asymmetries are investigated in two different ways. First, we restrict the estimated structural models reflecting the monetary constraints each country faced during the EMS period. We obtain well‐behaved and comparable effects of monetary policy shocks. Second, efficiency frontiers for the selected EMU countries are estimated. In computing the optimal combinations of output gap and inflation volatility we use a weighted average of interest rate and exchange rate, i.e. the Monetary Condition Index (MCI), as a policy instrument. The impulse response analysis implemented with the MCI shows relatively small differences in the responses of the real economy to monetary policy shocks. Altogether the results suggest that, no matter which policy instrument is used, output gap and inflation respond to identical monetary shocks with a similar speed and movement, albeit with a different degree of effect.     

Are there asymmetries in the response of bank interest rates to monetary shocks?

This article examines the velocity and asymmetry of the response of bank interest rates to monetary policy shocks. Using an asymmetric vector error correction model, it analyses the pass-through of changes in money market rates to retail bank interest rates in Italy in the period 1985–2002. The main results of the article are: (1) the speed of adjustment of bank interest rates to monetary policy changes increased significantly after the introduction of the 1993 Consolidated Law on Banking; (2) interest rate adjustment in response to positive and negative shocks is asymmetric in the short run, but not in the long run; (3) banks adjust their loan (deposit) rate faster during periods of monetary tightening (easing); (4) this asymmetry almost vanished since the 1990s.     

Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

Price determination theory typically focuses on the role of monetary policy, while the role of fiscal policy is usually neglected. From a different point of view, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level takes into account monetary and fiscal policy interactions and assumes that fiscal policy may determine the price level, even if monetary authorities pursue an inflation targeting strategy. In this paper we try to test empirically whether the time path of the government budget in EMU countries would have affected price level determination. Our results point to the sustainability of fiscal policy in all the EMU countries but Finland, although no firm conclusions can be drawn about the prevalence of either monetary or fiscal dominance.     

Estimating the effects of monetary policy shocks: does lag structure matter?

This paper examines the implications of lag structure for estimating the effects of monetary policy shocks in a VAR. A symmetric lag structure in which all variables have the same lag length and an asymmetric lag structure in which the lag length differs across variables but is the same for a particular variable in each equation of the model are examined. This is important in light of the fact that the true lag structure is generally not known. Four commonly used identification schemes are employed to identify monetary policy shocks. Monte Carlo simulations strongly indicate that the lag structure of a VAR model does matter when assessing the quantitative effects of monetary policy shocks. Given the inherent uncertainty about the true lag structure in practice, it is thus important that one compare the impulse response functions from both symmetric lag and asymmetric lag VARs in assessing the effects of monetary policy shocks.