Should we tax or cap political contributions? A lobbying model with policy favors and access

This paper develops a model of political contributions in which a politician can either sell policy favors, or sell access. Access allows interest groups to share hard information with the politician in support of their preferred policy. Here selling access maximizes policy utility, while selling policy favors maximizes total contributions. Imposing a binding contribution limit makes it more likely that the politician sells access, which can improve expected constituent welfare. However, a contribution limit distorts the signals associated with the contributions, which tends to result in worse policy. Alternatively, a tax on political contributions can ensure that the politician sells access without distorting his information. Therefore, from the viewpoint of a representative constituent, a tax on contributions is strictly preferred to a contribution limit or no reform. The politician, however, may prefer regulation in the form of a contribution limit, even when a tax is better for the constituent.     

Robots and humans – complements or substitutes?

The effect of the spread of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on wages depends on both the form of aggregate production relationships and the elasticity of substitution between human and robotic labor. With a conventional production function involving labor, robots, and ordinary capital, an increase in robotic labor can have either a positive or a negative effect on wages. Alternatively, it is possible to estimate the aggregate production relationship without measuring capital or other fixed factors explicitly, using the procedure developed by Houthakker in the 1950s. Houthakker's method is based on the probability distribution of the productivity of the variable factor. Fitting different distributions to cross-sectional data on U.S. productivity, it is shown that if the elasticity of substitution between human and robotic labor is greater than about 1.9, the burgeoning of AI technologies will cause a decline in aggregate wages, other things equal. For the manufacturing sector, an even smaller human-robot elasticity of substitution is likely to result in declining wages of industrial workers as robots proliferate.     

Economic and Monetary Union – Current Fiscal Disturbances and the Future

At the moment of its setting up the Economic and Monetary Union did not meet the criteria of the optimum currency area. Neither does it today. The crisis of public finance in the eurozone results from the abandonment public finance reforms, lack of consistency in enforcing the decision of the Stability and Growth Pact and, additionally, economic recession and financial crisis. Further functioning of the eurozone will depend on radical reforms of public finance and structural reforms enhancing efficiency of the market as an adjustment mechanism, and competitiveness of economies. The very establishment of the European Stabilization Mechanism and European Financial Stability cannot make up for the above mentioned necessary undertakings. It is important to change the socioeconomic model existing in the EU member countries.     

What do we know about fiscal sustainability across Indian states?

This study examines fiscal sustainability using Indian state-level data from 1980-81 to 2017-18. The results, derived from cointegration and dynamic ordinary least squares techniques, show strong fiscal sustainability for the majority of states. Our results also confirm that northern, western, and southern states are more fiscally sustainable as compared to eastern states. Further, we find fiscal sustainability for both revenue and capital accounts. Moreover, political alignment does not affect fiscal sustainability, except in a few states. From a policy perspective, state governments need to revisit their expenditure patterns to minimize non-developmental expenditure, particularly for those states with weak sustainability.     

God save the queen,god save us all? Monarchies and institutional quality

Until the beginning of the 20th century, monarchy was the predominant constitutional form and is still in place today in many countries. However, although a voluminous body of research is concerned with the consequences of constitutions for human development and institutional quality, research on the consequences of monarchy is almost non‐existent. This paper explores the effects of monarchy on economic institutional quality and provides evidence that monarchies are associated with significantly better institutions. Robustness checks indicate that this result cannot be explained through alternative channels such as monarchies being on average richer or smaller.     

Should we reallocate patent fees to the universities?

In knowledge economies, patent agencies are often viewed as a relevant instrument of an efficient innovation policy. This paper brings a new support to that idea. We claim that these agencies should play an increasing role in the regulation of the relation between private R&D labs and public fundamental research units especially concerning the question of the appropriation of free usable research results. Since these two institutions work with opposite institutional arrangements (see P.S. Dasgupta and P.A. David. 1987. Information disclosure and the economics of science and technology. In Arrow and the accent of modern economic theory, ed. G.R. Feiwel, 519–42. New York: State University of New York Press), we essentially argue that there is, on the one hand, an over-appropriation of these results while, on the other hand, there is also an under-provision of free usable results issued from more fundamental research. We show how a public patent office can restore efficiency.     

Fiscal discipline and exchange rates: Does politics matter?

We look at the effect of exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, taking into account the effect of underlying political conditions. We present a model where strong politics (defined as policymakers facing longer political horizon and higher cohesion) are associated with better fiscal performance, but fixed exchange rates may revert this result and lead to less fiscal discipline. We confirm these hypotheses through regression analysis performed on a panel sample covering 79 countries from 1975 to 2012. Our empirical results also show that the positive effect of strong politics on fiscal discipline is not enough to counter the negative impact of being at/moving to fixed exchange rates. Our results are robust to a number of sensitivity checks, including the use of different estimators, alternative proxies for fiscal discipline and sub-sample analysis.     

Sticky prices or rational inattention – What can we learn from sectoral price data?

This paper derives stylised facts on sectoral inflation dynamics and confronts these facts with two popular theoretical models of price setting. Based on sectoral price responses to macroeconomic shocks estimated from an approximate factor model, we find that the frequency of price changes explains a relevant share of the cross-sectional variation of the speed and size of responses. Moreover, there is little evidence that the volatility of sectoral inflation due to idiosyncratic shocks dampens the size and speed of the responses to macroeconomic shocks. These findings support a multi-sector model with sticky prices rather than a rational-inattention model. We derive the results from different modelling and sampling decisions proposed in the literature, and we find that the explanatory power of the frequency of price changes for the speed of response to a macroeconomic shock proves robust in the face of these decisions. Other results are sensitive with respect to the choice of the factor model and the treatment of outliers.     

Should They Stay or Should They Go? Attitudes Towards Immigration in Europe

This paper examines the main determinants of individual attitudes towards immigration in Europe. Our results suggest that both economic and non‐economic variables shape attitudes towards immigration, but the relative importance of these factors depends crucially on the race/ethnicity of the arriving immigrants. While fears over labour market competition are more likely to shape attitudes towards the arrival of same race immigrants, more exposure to immigrants reduces opposition towards the arrival of different race immigrants. These findings persist after controlling for socioeconomic characteristics, and after exploiting the data to allow for cohort‐specific effects.     

Should we transfer resources from college to basic education?

We analyze public intervention in two educational levels: basic education and college education. The government decides per capita expenditure at each level and the subsidy for college education. We explore the effect of transferring money from one level to the other on equity and efficiency. We prove the existence of an Equity-Efficiency Frontier (EEF), and analyze which policy reforms are optimal when the society is not at the EEF. For developed countries, this policy consists of transferring resources from college education to basic education.     

Testing for PPP: Should we use panel methods?

A common finding in the empirical literature on the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) is that it holds when tested for in panel data, but not in univariate (i.e. country-specific) analysis. The usual explanation for this mismatch is that panel tests for unit roots are more powerful than their univariate counterparts. In this paper we suggest an alternative explanation. Existing panel methods assume that cross-unit cointegrating relationships, that would tie the units of the panel together, are not present. Using simulations, we show that if this important underlying assumption of panel unit root tests is violated, the empirical size of the tests is substantially higher than the nominal level, and the null hypothesis of a unit root is rejected too often even when it is true. More generally, this finding warns against the automatic use of panel methods for testing for unit roots in macroeconomic time series.First version received: November 2001/Final version received : October 2003     

Sick of work or too sick to work? Evidence on self-reported health shocks and early retirement from the BHPS

We follow individuals as they retire using discrete-time hazard models applied to a stock sample from 12 waves of the British Household Panel Survey. We use a generalised ordered probit model to explore the existence of reporting bias and to purge the self-reported measure of health of this bias. This model takes into account the possibility that anticipated retirement may influence reporting of health. There is evidence that health shocks are a determinant of retirement age. This is the case for both men and women and is observed for both health limitations and a measure based on latent health status derived from the generalised ordered probit model. While the size of the health effect varies according to how we measure health, the relative effect is large compared to the other variables, and in particular when compared to the effects of private pensions. However numerical simulations show that this high hazard ratio interacts with the, relatively low, incidence of new health limitations among the age group of interest to generate only a modest number of excess early retirements. Further, our results do not show evidence that the health status of their partner affects the hazard of early retirement for both men and women. Having an employed partner does reduce the hazard of early retirement.     

Should you pay off your mortgage or invest?

The mortgage payoff dilemma affects many retirees that have enough financial assets to pay off their mortgage. I find that, on average, retirees with less than $300,000 in non-housing financial wealth are better off keeping the mortgage and investing.     

Teaching (un)sustainability? University sustainability commitments and student experiences of introductory economics

The three largest public universities in British Columbia, Canada have signed the Talloires Declaration, committing themselves to promoting sustainability and creating expectations that they will integrate sustainability across the curriculum in order to improve students' environmental literacy and stewardship. About 40% of North American university students take a mainstream introductory economics course; few of these students take economics at more advanced levels. As such, introductory economics courses are an important vehicle for students to learn economic theory; they have the potential to contribute to the knowledge that students can mobilize to foster sustainability. Interviews were held with 54 students who had recently completed an introductory level mainstream economics course at one of the three universities. Students reported that introductory economics courses place little emphasis on the environment and sustainability, they recalled course content with normative connotations that are problematic from a sustainability perspective and they described how discussion of the limitations of mainstream theory was set aside. Student reports of the insights introductory economics offers into environmental problems imply that these courses are failing to substantively increase students' understanding of sustainability and linkages between the environment and the economy. Findings suggest that current introductory economics curriculum undermines the universities' sustainability commitments.     

Vested Interests and the Common Man as Seen Through Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Flooding Wall Street or Main Street?

There are many angles through which a critical observer can analyze the divergent class interests in most aspects of macroeconomic management. We examine the insistence of financial authorities of all major economies on reviving economic activity through monetary — and not fiscal — policy as a particularly clear example of favoring vested interests over the interests of the common man. Nearly a century after Thorstein Veblen wrote on the subject, one can find many parallel elements to the political landscape of the times. Today, the common man is often expressed by the “99%,” and many accept that the dominant vested interest is that of global banks. Unlike in Veblen’s times, economists today have many historical experiments in economic management that they can consult. By employing logic, historical experience, and an understanding of our current global finance-led capitalism, we offer a preliminary institutionalist analysis of the mechanisms of current monetary policy that “flood” Wall Street, while leaving employment, production, and investment — Main Street — all but forgotten. We then explain how vested interests have abandoned fiscal policy and left a deflationary macroeconomic environment.     

Fiscal policy and the current account: are microstates different?

This article examines the empirical link between fiscal policy and the current account focusing on microstates defined as countries with a population of less than 2 million between 1970 and 2009. This article employs panel regression and Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) on 155 countries of which 42 are microstates. Panel regression results show that a percentage point improvement in the fiscal balance improves the current account balance by 0.4 percentage points of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The real effective exchange rate has no significant impact on the current account in microstates but the coefficient is significant in the global sample. PVAR results show that an increase in government consumption results in real exchange appreciation, but the effect on the current account after an initial deterioration dies out quicker in microstates than in the global sample. The result implies that fiscal policy has little effect on the current account in microstates beyond its direct impact on imports. Overall, the results suggest that the weak relative price effects make the effect of fiscal adjustment on the current account much more difficult in microstates.