Self‐employment Dynamics in Australia and the Importance of State Dependence

Using Australian labour force data, both cross‐sectional and longitudinal, this study examines the dynamics of self‐employment with a particular focus on workers transitioning between self‐employment and salaried employment, and the extent to which self‐employment is the result of workers’ observed and unobserved characteristics or is instead determined by their prior employment experience itself. Probability models of self‐employment using both pooled‐panel probit and dynamic random‐effects panel probit methods are estimated, and the results are found to be extremely sensitive to the differences in the econometric methods. Once unobserved heterogeneity and initial conditions are controlled for in the dynamic model, the importance of observed characteristics in determining self‐employment is greatly diminished. Instead, workers’ past experience in self‐employment (as opposed to salaried employment) is found to have a large favourable effect on their future self‐employment prospects. The influence of this state dependence is also considerably more important in determining self‐employment outcomes than salaried ones. Despite establishing the importance of state dependence, however, what this effect implies about why individuals choose to become self‐employed or the role that self‐employment plays in the labour market remains unresolved.     

Employment and the risk of domestic violence: does the breadwinner’s gender matter?

This article studies the effect on the risk of female victimization of the employment status of the woman and her partner. We use individual-level data from the violence against women surveys for Spain, which also provide information on income and a rich set of sociodemographic characteristics. To address the potential endogeneity of the binary employment indicators, we exploit exogenous geographical information on the employment and unemployment rates by gender and age, within a multivariate probit framework. Our estimation results show that male partner employment plays a major role in the risk of physical violence, while female employment only lowers it when her partner is employed too. The lowest risk appears for more egalitarian couples in which both partners are employed.     

New Technologies And The Demand For Heterogeneous Labor: Firm-Level Evidence For The German Business-Related Service Sector

This paper investigates the impact of modern information and communication technologies on the demand for heterogeneous labor. It starts with an interrelated factor demand system. The ‘desired’ level of employment which is needed in such models, is derived from a Generalized Leontief cost function with quasi-fixed factors. Firm-level, cross-sectional data taken from an innovation survey in the service sector are used in the empirical analysis. The model is estimated by a trivariate ordered probit model. Evidence in favor of skill-biased technological change in the fast-growing German business-related services sector is found. ‘Ibe paper suggests a new method of calculating skill-specific and firm-specific labor cost from information on total labor cost and the share of each skill group in total employment only.     

Low-wage mobility in the Portuguese labour market

Low-wage employment has become a matter of concern in many countries, Portugal being among them. In particular, the extent to which low-wage employment is a permanent or transitory situation is an important issue. This paper examines low-wage mobility in the Portuguese labour market using the bivariate probit model proposed by van de Ven and van Praag (1981), in order to account for the potential endogeneity of the initial state. For this purpose, we use a matched employer-employee panel data for 1996 and 2000. Raw figures show that a significant number of workers are trapped into low-wage employment. We also find that males and the better-educated are more likely to escape from such a situation. Furthermore, initial firm characteristics, such as firm size, age and industry influence mobility. In particular, low-wage workers in larger or in newer firms have better mobility prospects.JEL Classification: J31, J42Financial support from the Portuguese Science Foundation and FEDER under grant POCTI/ECO/37668/2001 is acknowledged. The author is indebted to an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Forecasting US recessions with macro factors

Dynamic factors estimated from panels of macroeconomic indicators are used to predict future recessions using probit models. Three factors are considered: a bond and exchange rates factor, a stock market factor and a real activity factor. Three results emerge. First, models that use only financial indicators exhibit a large deterioration in fit after 2005. Second, models that use factors yield better fit than models that use indicators directly. Out-of-sample forecasting exercises confirm these results for 3-, 6- and 12-month horizons using both ex-post revised data and real-time data. Third, results show evidence that data revisions affect factors less than individual indicators.     

Paid employment and unpaid caring work in Spain

The objective of this paper is to investigate the determinants of unpaid time in caring activities, with a special emphasis on the gender dimension. Data from the Household Panel Survey for Spain is used to estimate an ordered probit model for the hours interval in care of children and adult people in need of care. The results show that gender is one of the key determinants of the distribution of time in caring. Being in paid employment is also an important factor in the time devoted to caring. Demographic variables like age, marital status and education are also relevant, particularly in the case of women. Finally, cultural habits and customs are also important.     

A bivariate probit approach to the determination of employment: a study of teen employment differentials in Los Angeles County

Following a bivariate probit approach and using the 1990 Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) for Los Angeles County, this study shows that the employment of teenage workers depends on both the worker's participation decision as well as the employer's hiring decision. Omission of the role of participation decision from the estimation of employment probability yields misleading evidence of hiring discrimination against Blacks. This evidence, however, disappears when the participation and hiring equations are estimated jointly in a bivariate framework. The study finds no evidence of discrimination against females and Latinos. In addition, the study shows that family, household and neighbourhood characteristics play significant roles in the determination of teen employment.     

Fertility Decisions and Gender Differences in Labor Turnover, Employment, and Wages

A striking observation of the U.S. and other labor markets is the weak position of women in terms of job attachment, employment, and earnings relative to men. We develop a model of fertility and labor market decisions to study the impact of fertility on gender differences in labor turnover, employment, and wages. In our framework, individuals search for jobs and accumulate general (experience) and specific (tenure) human capital when they work. They can also increase their wage by moving to a job of higher quality. Labor market decisions (e.g., job acceptance and job mobility) may differ across genders: females that give birth may decide to interrupt their labor market attachment in order to enjoy the value of staying at home with their children. The model economy is successfully calibrated to match aggregate statistics in terms of fertility, employment, and wages. We find that fertility decisions generate important gender differences in turnover rates, with long lasting effects in employment and wages. These differences in labor turnover account for almost all the U.S. gender wage gap that is attributed to labor market experience by Blau and Kahn (2000, Journal of Labor Economics15(1), 1–42). The model also implies a very small role of tenure capital in accounting for wage differences between males and females (gender gap), and between females with and without children (family gap). Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E24, J13, J21, J31.     

The Effects of Gender Differences in Career Interruptions on the Gender Wage Gap in Spain

The aim of this paper is to measure the influence of past employment interruptions on current wages and to analyze how these interruptions contribute to the gender wage gap. The discontinuity in labor trajectories of Spanish employees from 2005 to 2010 is examined by measuring the duration of unemployment periods from employees’ first Social Security affiliation to the last job at which they were employed. Through the use of the database “Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales” (MCVL), the estimated gender wage gap is found to be 13.1 percent. Introducing an index of interruptions as an explanatory variable, the results show that interruptions have a negative impact on both men's and women's wages. These interruptions explain 7.4 percent of the daily gender wage gap in Spain, primarily because women experience more interruptions in employment than men.     

Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models

This paper extends probit recession forecasting models by incorporating various recession risk factors and using the advanced dynamic probit modeling approaches. The proposed risk factors include financial market expectations of a gloomy economic outlook, credit or liquidity risks in the general economy, the risks of negative wealth effects resulting from the bursting of asset price bubbles, and signs of deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals. The model specifications include three different dynamic probit models and the standard static model. The out-of-sample analysis suggests that the four probit models with the proposed risk factors can generate more accurate forecasts for the duration of recessions than the conventional static models with only yield spread and equity price index as the predictors. Among the four probit models, the dynamic and dynamic autoregressive probit models outperform the static and autoregressive models in terms of predicting the recession duration. With respect to forecasting the business cycle turning points, the static probit model is as good as the dynamic probit models by being able to flag an early warning signal of a recession.     

A Probit Analysis of Aboriginal Employment Prospects in New South Wales*

Using data from the 1986–87Survey of Working Age Aborigines in New South Wales, this paper presents the results of a probit analysis to determine the characteristics which differentiate employed Aborigines from Aborigines not in employment The results of the probit analysis show the importance of the acquisition of human capital to the employment success of Aborigines, at least in New South Wales. Increments in level of education, previous participation in formal labour market programs, and previous employment experience all have significant, positive impacts on the likelihood of individual Aborigines being in employment     

Women and work: what role do social norms play?

Against the background of the current (economic) research which concentrates particularly on individual and structural factors, this paper examines if and to what extent social norms (in terms of attitudes towards gender roles and work commitment) can make a complementary statement in explaining women’s employment status and number of working hours. The impact is presumed to be enhanced through norms shared by people belonging to the same households, peer groups, and by residents of the same region. The analysis relies on a rich German dataset and employs a probit model with sample selection. The results highlight, among other things, the importance of the ‘relevant others’ (particularly partners living in the same household and peers sharing similar social and work characteristics, but not necessarily geographical proximity) in explaining women’s employment status.     

Economic crisis and benefits of the Internet: differentiated Internet usage by employment status

Using data from the Spanish Survey on Equipment and Use of ICTs in Households for 2007–2011, this paper evaluates the effect of employment status on the diffusion of the Internet among the labor force. We use a bivariate probit with sample selection model to account for a potential selection bias that arises because online usage is only observed for Internet users. Our results show that, controlling for income, employment influences online adoption and usage, and we find evidence of a digital divide in adoption and usage by education and age among the labor force. Employed individuals are more likely to have accessed the Internet and used it more frequently than the unemployed and for different activities. However, conditional on adoption, they do not use the Internet for more personal activities. These findings suggest that firms promote and subsidize Internet access, but this sponsored access does not translate into more personal use.     

Predicting Canadian recessions using dynamic probit modelling approaches

Abstract This paper examines the ability of various financial and macroeconomic variables to forecast Canadian recessions. It evaluates four model specifications, including the advanced dynamic, autoregressive, dynamic autoregressive probit models as well as the conventional static probit model. The empirical results highlight several significant recession predictors, notably the government bond yield spread, growth rates of the housing starts, the real money supply and the composite index of leading indicators. Both the in‐sample and out‐of‐sample results suggest that the forecasting performance of the four probit models is mixed. The dynamic and dynamic autoregressive probit models are better in predicting the duration of recessions while the static and autoregressive probit models are better in forecasting the peaks of business cycles. Hence, the advanced dynamic models and the conventional static probit model can complement one another to provide more accurate forecasts for the duration and turning points of business cycles.     

Is There a Causal Effect of Working Part‐Time on Current and Future Wages?

In this paper, I study the causal effects of part‐time work on current and future wages. To estimate these effects, I use a random effects model with a wage equation capturing the employment history and a dynamic multinomial probit component for the choice of employment status. Exclusion restrictions from the institutional context are exploited to support identification. The results suggest that working part‐time with few hours has a large causal effect on current wages, but more extensive part‐time work does not reduce current wages. However, both types of part‐time work lead to negative long‐term wage effects.     

Delinquency and gender

The determinants of juvenile delinquency for males and females using the Delinquency in a Birth Cohort II Study are investigated. Ordered probit models for juvenile arrest are estimated separately for males and females. The results indicate that juvenile arrests for both males and females are more likely for non-whites and for those who leave education early. Males and females behave differently, in that males are more likely to be repeat offenders.     

Semi-parametric models for satisfaction with income

An overview is presented of some parametric and semi-parametric models, estimators, and specification tests that can be used to analyze ordered response variables. In particular, limited dependent variable models that generalize ordered probit are compared to regression models that generalize the linear model. These techniques are then applied to analyze how self-reported satisfaction with household income relates to household income, family composition, and other background variables. Data are drawn from the 1998 wave of the German Socio-Economic Panel. The results are used to estimate equivalence scales and the cost of children. We find that the standard ordered probit model is rejected, while some semi-parametric specifications survive specification tests against nonparametric alternatives. The estimated equivalence scales, however, are often similar for the parametric and semi-parametric specifications.JEL Classification: C14, C35, D12Correspondence to: Charles BellemareWe are grateful to an anonymous referee and to participants of a CeMMAP/ESG workshop at University College London and seminars at CentER (Tilburg University) and Humboldt University Berlin for useful comments.     

An analysis of the determinants of job satisfaction when individuals’ baseline satisfaction levels may differ

A growing literature seeks to explain differences in individuals’ self-reported satisfaction with their jobs. The evidence so far has mainly been based on cross-sectional data and when panel data have been used, individual unobserved heterogeneity has been modelled as an ordered probit model with random effects. This article makes use of longitudinal data for Denmark, taken from the waves 1995–1999 of the European Community Household Panel, and estimates fixed effects ordered logit models using the estimation methods proposed by Ferrer-i-Carbonel and Frijters (2004) and Das and van Soest (1999). For comparison and testing purposes a random effects ordered probit is also estimated. Estimations are carried out separately on the samples of men and women for individuals’ overall satisfaction with the jobs they hold. We find that using the fixed effects approach (that clearly rejects the random effects specification), considerably reduces the number of key explanatory variables. The impact of central economic factors is the same as in previous studies, though. Moreover, the determinants of job satisfaction differ considerably between the genders, in particular once individual fixed effects are allowed for.     

The Gender Pay Gap by Occupation: A Test of the Crowding Hypothesis

Identified, structural wage equations for seven occupations are estimated to test the crowding hypothesis—that the gender pay gap is due to females being crowded into low-paying occupations—using data drawn from the 1996 wave of the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY79). Occupational preferences are used to estimate a logit probability model of occupational assignment to create instruments to control for self-selection. Wage equations are estimated for all workers and for full-time, year-round workers. Identical specifications are estimated for private-sector workers. The results are not consistent with a crowding explanation as the sole source of the gender pay gap unless crowding occurs at less aggregated levels of occupations than those used for this study. (JEL J16 , J31 , J71 )     

Women's employment,children and transitionAn empirical analysis for Poland1

This article empirically investigates how the transition to a market economy affected the relationship between motherhood and labour force outcomes in Poland. We estimate different probit models on two panel datasets covering a three‐year period before the reform (1987–1989) and a three‐year period afterwards (1994–1996). Contrary to a priori expectations, our findings indicate that during transition young children were much less of a deterrent to the employment probability of their mother than they were before transition.