Joint probability distributions concerning a sequence of symmetric Bernoulli trials

Abstract

Two consecutive trials in a sequence of trials would yield one of the four patterns SS, SF, FF and FS, where S stands for success and F stands for failure. In the context of brand choice process under Bernoulli Model (Wierenga, 1974) SS and FF imply continuation with the same brand and SF and FS imply brand switching. Thus, a study of the probability distributions concerning these patterns assumes importance in the development and evaluation of marketing strategies towards the promotion of sales by the producer of a particular brand. Restricting ourselves to the case of Symmetric Bernoulli Trials (SBT), viz., the probability of success (and, therefore, of failure) at any trial is 1/2, we obtain in this paper, generating functions for the various tri-nomial distributions that arise by considering two of the four patterns mentioned above. We obtain these results by developing, at the first instance, the difference equations that connect the relevant probability functions (Uspensky, 1937, Bizley, 1957 and Feller, 1968). Some of the known results (Sabharwal, 1969), are obtained as a particular case of the new results.     

Sub-sequence incidence analysis within series of Bernoulli trials: application in characterisation of time series dynamics

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a new and widely applicable nonparametric approach to the characterisation of time series dynamics. The approach involves analysis of the incidence of occurrence of patterns in the direction of movement of the series, and may readily be applied to time series data measured on any scale. The paper includes derivations of analytic forms for two (infinite) families of distributions under the null hypothesis of random behaviour, and of a useful analytic form for the generation of the moments of these distributions. The distributions are asymptotically normal, so allowing for straightforward application of the approach presented in the paper too long series of high frequency and/or extended time period data. Areas of application in finance and accounting are suggested.     

亚行建议加速农村低保试点

前不久,多位中央机关、省政府官员及专家学者讨论了在中国农村地区建立最低生活保障(或农村低保)制度. 中国政府2006年3月公布的国民经济和社会发展"十一五"规划明确要求加快部分省份的农村低保制度试点.民政部最近召开的会议指出,建立低保制度是2007年的一项主要任务.     

规范管理 积极稳妥推进新型农村合作医疗试点

新型农村合作医疗制度是由政府组织、引导和支持，农民自愿参加，个人、集体和政府多方筹资，以大病统筹为主的农民医疗互助共济制度。建立新型农村合作医疗制度，对提高农民健康水平，促进农村经济发展，维护社会稳定具有重要意义，是党中央、国务院落实科学发展观和构建社会主义和谐社会的重大决策，是解决“三农”问题，促进城乡协调发展，全面建设小康社会的重要举措。根据《中共河北省委河北省人民政府关于进一步加强农村卫生工作的决定》和国务院办公厅转发卫生部等部门《关于建立新型农村合作医疗制度的意见》，我省于2003年7月正式出台了《河北省新型农村合作医疗管理办法》，并于当年8月开始在迁安、曲周和枣强三县试点。     

5 pillars of clinical integration

Implementing an effective clinical integration program requires deliberate investment of time and resources in five key areas: Physician leadership, Physician-led care management, Quality monitoring, Patient information and data sharing, Payer engagement.     

iShares Australia: a clinical study in international behavioral finance

Using iShares Australia returns as a proxy for the influence of overseas investors in the Australian market, we found that U.S.-based investors in the Australian market overreact to contemporaneous and lagged returns of the U.S. equity market, the U.S.-Australian dollar exchange rate, and past iShares Australia returns. In response to changing conditional risk, however, investors behave rationally: increasing (decreasing) expected risk is associated with falling (rising) prices. In light of these findings, we hypothesize that behavioral finance might explain the observed correlations between international equity markets.     

Accountable clinical management: an integrated approach

Hospitals should move from the traditional siloed approach to managing the clinical side of the enterprise, where finance leaders and clinicians play distinctly different roles without coordination, to an integrated approach that assembles a multidisciplinary team to focus coordinated attention on identifying and pursuing opportunities for clinical process improvement. Senior executives should lead this top-down effort to establish goals and set priorities for action, using an integrated, high-level reporting dashboard that shows overall performance in terms of quality, efficiency, and patient experience. Implementing integrated clinical management requires a clear, consistent communications plan and messaging for physicians and managers to show why it is increasingly necessary for both hospitals and physicians.     

The clinical allocation of joint blood product costs

Transfusion services in England provide a joint platelet product and a more costly, but better quality, non-joint alternative. Unfortunately, management is unsure of the optimal manufacturing balance between the two because, for reasons of accounting expediency, all joint costs are allocated to red cells and none to platelets. Purchasers and users may be unaware of this problem because of supplementary costs, incurred beyond the split-off point, that create a finite transfer price. In response, this study introduces a consensus clinical view of joint blood product manufacture, as an alternative basis for allocating joint costs, and presents pilot data. When this model is examined in the context of the accounting literature a number of parallels emerge. Furthermore, the history of transfusion points strongly to the clinical outcome value of products as the overriding driver of short-term manufacturing as well as its long-term development, lending support to the use of clinical consensus in the derivation of allocations. This contrasts with the use of quantitative red cell demand as the main cost driver in the current transfusion service model.     

The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination

This paper examines the market for catastrophe event risk – i.e., financial claims that are linked to losses associated with natural hazards, such as hurricanes and earthquakes. Risk management theory suggests protection by insurers and other corporations against the largest cat events is most valuable. However, most insurers purchase relatively little cat reinsurance against large events, and premiums are high relative to expected losses. To understand why the theory fails, we examine transactions that look to capital markets, rather than traditional reinsurance markets, for risk-bearing capacity. We develop eight theoretical explanations and find the most compelling to be supply restrictions associated with capital market imperfections and market power exerted by traditional reinsurers.     

Practical methods for measuring and managing operational risk in the financial sector: A clinical study

This paper analyzes the implications of the advanced measurement approach (AMA) for the assessment of operational risk. Through a clinical case study on a matrix of two selected business lines and two event types of a large financial institution, we develop a procedure that addresses the major issues faced by banks in the implementation of the AMA. For each cell, we calibrate two truncated distributions functions, one for “normal” losses and the other for the “extreme” losses. In addition, we propose a method to include external data in the framework. We then estimate the impact of operational risk management on bank profitability, through an adapted measure of RAROC. The results suggest that substantial savings can be achieved through active management techniques.     

Integration problems and turnaround strategies in a cross-border merger A clinical examination of the Pharmacia-Upjohn merger

With the increasing globalization brought about by consolidation, crossborder mergers are growing increasingly popular as means of rapidly achieving size-related economies of scale and scope as well as global reach. However, integration issues such as culture clashes, which are problematic in domestic mergers, are often more severe when the merging companies are headquartered in separate countries with widely differing social mores. This study is an examination of one such merger—the 1995 merger between pharmaceutical companies Upjohn of the United States and Pharmacia of Sweden. The clinical study explores the many initial integration problems experienced in this merger and the turnaround strategy used to counteract the problems.     

Out of control little-used clinical assets are draining healthcare budgets

To improve utilization and reduce the cost of maintaining mobile clinical equipment, healthcare organization leaders should do the following: Select an initial asset group to target. Conduct a physical inventory. Evaluate the organization's asset "ecosystem." Optimize workflow processes. Phase in new processes, and phase out inventory. Devote time to change management. Develop a replacement strategy.