Tenure decisions,mortgage interest,and the spatial distribution of housing demand: A theoretical analysis

This paper develops a model for analyzing household tenure decisions and life cycle planning decisions that must be made simultaneously with housing location decisions. It is found that increases in the leverage sensitivity of mortgage interest structures lead to flatter housing gradients within the city. We examine conditions under which households tend to move further from the center with age and income and under which home purchasers will tend to outbid renters at distances further from the center.     

Effects of residential relocation on household and commuting expenditures in Shanghai, China

Over the past three decades, China's cities have undergone massive spatial restructuring in the wake of market reforms and economic growth. One consequence has been a rapid migration of urban residents to the periphery. Some movers have been forced out either by rising urban rents or government reclamation of their residences. Others have relocated willingly to modernized housing or for other lifestyle reasons. This article examines the effects of relocation to the urban edge on household well-being. It explores the factors underlying changes in housing and transportation costs as households move to the periphery. The research also examines whether those who moved involuntarily are affected differently from those who moved by choice. Results show that, relative to those who moved by choice, involuntary movers are disproportionately and adversely affected in terms of job accessibility, commute time, housing consumption and disposable income. The findings also show that, compared with higher-income households, lower-income groups are disproportionately affected in relation to housing costs, accessibility losses, disposable income and household worker composition. These results indicate that relocation compensation for involuntarily relocated households should be expanded to include more than just housing value: it should encompass urban location changes, household needs and relocation costs.     

Determinants of the rate of home ownership of black relative to white households

This paper investigates the reasons for the lower rate of home ownership of black households compared to white households in urban areas. A model of the demand for owner-occupancy by blacks relative to the demand by whites is formulated and econometrically estimated.The principal finding is that a percentage increase in the mean level of black household incomes produces a larger increase in the relative rate of blacks' home ownership than an equivalent reduction in the price of owner-occupied housing which they face. Although significant effects of within market discrimination against blacks as reflected in higher prices of owner-occupied housing to blacks are found, attempts to associate this price premium with measures of residential segregation were unsuccessful.     

Spatial mismatch: An equilibrium analysis

The spatial mismatch hypothesis, first stated by Kain (1968) argues that job decentralization in US cities has contributed to low incomes and high unemployment rates for black Americans. Decentralization relocates job sites to white suburban communities far from the CBD, and housing segregation prevents blacks from relocating their residences near the new workplaces. The purpose of the paper is to analyze an urban equilibrium with spatial mismatch. Despite the existence of a suburban employment center, blacks in the model are forced to live in the central zone they occupied in the original monocentric city, commuting across the white residential area to access suburban jobs. This ‘mismatch’ equilibrium is contrasted with an unrestricted equilibrium where blacks are free to locate wherever they choose.     

Capitalization,population movement,and the local public sector: a probabilistic analysis

Using data collected from household interviews in a 1965 San Francisco Bay Area Transportation Study, a probabilistic model is developed to explain the relationship between population movement and the capitalization of changes in the public sector in the price of housing. This model is constructed to compare 2 competing explanations for the flight of higher income households to the suburbs: 1) the accessibility model and 2) the flight from blight model. The accessibility model explains the decay of cities as a natural outgrowth of decreasing transportation costs, whereas the flight from blight model suggests that the wealthy leave the central city for the suburbs because of urban decay. An analysis of the San Francisco data demonstrates that high income households are more sensitive than the rest of the population to changes in the median income of the neighborhood and in expenditures and general government and education, but less sensitive to changes in property tax rate and expenditures on public safety, parks, and recreation. It is unlikely that undesirable changes in the public sector will result in a mass exodus of higher income households; capitalization in the price of housing appears sufficient to prevent this. The 2 models combined help explain the flight from the central cities, while the combined variables increase the logit estimation's prediction of bids for housing.     

Homeowner Renovation and Repair: The Decision to Hire Someone Else to Do the Project

Renovation and repair expenditures are an important component of the U.S. housing market and have grown in importance relative to new construction as a source of housing supply. However, this aspect of the housing supply process is not well understood and the existing literature on the topic is relatively sparse. This paper focuses on one aspect of renovation and repair expenditures: the choice of a contractor job or a project mainly undertaken by the homeowner. The empirical work stresses the importance of looking at different categories of renovation expenditures separately. Household characteristics are important determinants of the homeowner's decision to hire someone else to do the work. Married couple households and other households with more adults are less likely to hire outside labor, all else equal. Higher household income and more years of education increase the probability of hiring outside labor. Black households have a significantly lower likelihood of performing their own renovations than white households with comparable characteristics and comparable housing units.     

Implications of alternate policies on welfare of slum dwellers: Evidence from Pune,India

In this paper we examine how slum dwellers value location-based amenities. In most developing country cities, residents living in slums have poor-quality dwellings and limited access to basic public services and amenities. Using data from Pune, India, we estimate the residential location choices of slum dwellers, which are conditional on housing quality, neighborhood amenities, and community structure. We use these estimates to simulate the impact of alternate interventions on household welfare. We find that households derive benefits from housing quality and neighborhood amenities. While relocating households to the periphery has adverse consequences for household welfare, we show that households could be adequately compensated out of the increased tax revenue accruing from alternative uses of the vacated central land.     

Optimal density of radial major roads in a two-dimensional monocentric city with endogenous residential distribution and housing prices

This paper proposes an analytical urban system equilibrium model for optimizing the density of radial major roads in a two-dimensional monocentric city. The proposed model involves four types of agents: local authorities, property developers, households and household workers (i.e. commuters). The local authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the urban system by determining the optimal density of radial major roads in the city. The property developers seek to determine the intensity of their capital investment in the land market to maximize the net profit generated from the housing supply. The households choose residential locations that maximize their utility within a budget constraint, and the commuters choose the radial major roads that minimize their individual costs of travel between home and workplace. A heuristic solution procedure is developed to find the urban system equilibrium solution. A system optimum model is also proposed to optimize the density of radial major roads that maximizes the social welfare of the urban system. The proposed model can endogenously determine household residential distribution and land values across the city, along with the housing market structure in terms of housing prices and space. Numerical comparative static analyses of congestion pricing and road infrastructure investment (adding a new radial major road) are carried out together with evaluation of the effects of the service level of radial major roads, urban population size, and household income level on the urban economy.     

A silver lining to white flight? White suburbanization and African–American homeownership, 1940–1980

Between 1940 and 1980, the homeownership rate among metropolitan African–American households increased by 27 percentage points. Nearly three-quarters of this increase occurred in central cities. We show that rising black homeownership in central cities was facilitated by the movement of white households to the suburban ring, which reduced the price of urban housing units conducive to owner-occupancy. Our OLS and IV estimates imply that 26 percent of the national increase in black homeownership over the period is explained by white suburbanization.     

Housing tenure transitions of older households: Life cycle, demographic, and familial factors

Understanding the housing choices of the older households will grow in importance as the baby boom generation starts to retire. This analysis utilizes a rich longitudinal data set (PSID) to provide insight into the reasons why older households make housing transitions. Because of the richness of the data, this analysis is able to control for life transitions, a household's income and wealth, and connection to one's children in predicting when a homeowner makes a housing transition. The results demonstrate that age is not related directly to housing tenure choice for older households. Instead, having lower health status and being a single head of household is the important predictor of housing tenure transitions. At the same time, very few life changing events immediately lead a homeowner to become a renter, although they do influence the decision to downsize or consumer home equity. Finally, living next to one's children lowers the probability of becoming a renter or downsizing, and having richer children increases the probability of downsizing and thereby consuming one's housing wealth.     

Analyzing the Relationships among Race,Wealth, and Home Ownership in America

This paper presents new evidence on the determinants of the large disparities in home ownership by race in the U.S. Consistent with results first reported by P. Linneman and S. M. Wachter (1989,AREOFA J.7, No. 4, 389–402), we find noceteris paribusracial differences in ownership rates among white and minority households who possess sufficient wealth to meet down payment and closing cost requirements associated with standard mortgage underwriting criteria. However, substantial racial differences among wealth-constrained households exist, with constrained whites owning at higher rates than observationally equivalent minority households. Because minorities are disproportionately constrained by wealth-related underwriting standards, these differentials apply to roughly one-third of the white households in our samples and well over one-half of the minority sample. A multinomial model that treats central city versus suburban location as a choice variable in addition to tenure status is also estimated. The results show that even among households unconstrained by wealth-related underwriting considerations, minorities are much more likely than whites to own in central city locations. Thus, while controlling for wealth constraint status does eliminate tenure choice differences among the unconstrained, location differences remain for this group. They also are present among constrained households. Given the disparate fortunes of central city and suburban land markets in many metropolitan areas, this racial location pattern of ownership may have important long-run impacts on wealth distribution by race.     

Racial gaps in the transition to first-time homeownership: The role of residential location

Evidence suggests that African Americans wait longer to transition into first-time homeownership than white households with similar endowments. This paper relies on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to examine the contribution of residential location toward the black–white gap in first-time homeownership transitions. For a sample of young renters who first left their parents' home during the period 1978 through 1987, I estimate continuous time duration models that explain racial gaps in rental tenure durations prior to first-time homeownership as a function of individual, household, and location-specific covariates. I find that while several residential location characteristics, particularly those associated with the supply of affordable owner-occupied housing, impinge upon racial gaps in first-time homeownership transitions, most of the racial gap in homeownership transitions would be eliminated if blacks and whites had similar individual and household characteristics.     

The Limits of Homeownership: Racial Capitalism,Black Wealth,and the Appreciation Gap in Atlanta

In the wake of the 2007–08 housing crash, the Black–white wealth gap reached a staggering 20 to 1. Since then, a growing chorus of influential voices has proposed measures to increase the Black homeownership rate as a means to narrow the gap. Others, however, have argued that the uneven racial geography of home price appreciation necessarily restricts the degree to which Black households, in the aggregate, can build wealth via homeownership. We aim to contribute to these debates by theorizing a racial appreciation gap as a central feature of urban housing markets under racial capitalism, and analyzing how neighborhood racial and income characteristics have structured home price appreciation from before the height of the housing boom (2000–03) to its post-crisis recovery (2014–16). Focusing on the two counties that encompass Atlanta, Georgia, USA—an area famous for Black prosperity—we find that a neighborhood's racial composition has a more salient impact on home price change than its income. Results indicate that when a place is marked as Black, this may itself inhibit home price appreciation, suggesting that an enduring racial appreciation gap may limit the potential for Black homeownership to substantively narrow the racial wealth gap.     

Effective Rental Housing Demand in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region

This paper reports on the estimation of housing demand for tenants in Tokyo Metropolitan Region using household level data for 1993. The results indicate that the rental housing demand is inelastic with respect to permanent income and price, with coefficients as 0.31 and -0.093 respectively. Other important variables, which determine housing demand for tenants are length of stay and type of household. Larger households demand more housing. However, keeping the size of household constant, households with elderly members have higher demand for housing. The only exception to the rule is households formed with members not belonging to same nucleus family demand less housing.     

安徽省城镇居民收入与消费结构的关联分析

采用灰色关联分析方法对安徽省2001~2006年间城镇居民收入和消费结构的关系进行了量化分析,得出了收入对各项消费支出的影响程度,从大到小依次是:居住、衣着、食品、文教娱乐、交通通讯、其他商品、医疗保健、家庭设备用品及服务。又运用灰色预测方法对2007~2011年间的收入水平和各项消费支出进行了预测,并且对预测值进行了灰色关联分析,得出了收入对各项消费支出的影响程度,从大到小依次是:医疗保健、衣着、交通通讯、食品、居住、文教娱乐、家庭设备、其他商品及服务。最后,针对消费结构的升级提出建议。     

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA), tenure choice,and residential land use

This paper extends the standard, urban, residential land-use model to analyze the effects of Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage insurance. On the demand side, households are differentiated by income and tenure; on the supply side, the cost of housing is related to the asset prices of land and structure and the cost of capital. Hypothesizing that capital cost is a function of household tenure and income, tenure is chosen to minimize this cost. The effect of FHA, then, is to expand the housing consumption of moderate-middle income households, by reducing their capital cost, while displacing those whose cost is not reduced.     

What happens to household formation in a recession?

While many studies have investigated the determinants of housing demand, very few studies have focused on how economic conditions affect the formation of potential households directly. Potential households may choose to delay entry into the housing market by remaining with one’s parents during times of economic hardship or by combining with other persons to share housing costs. Using a variety of modeling approaches, we find that both the increase in the unemployment rate and the presence of recessions reduce the rate of household formation. Simulations suggest that these declines are substantively important. For example, in a recession, the likelihood that a young adult will form an independent household falls by 1–9% points depending on the age of the person. By way of comparison, if an individual is unemployed, the likelihood of leaving the parental home is up to 11% points lower.     

Tenure choice and the riskiness of non-housing consumption

This paper analyzes a household's choice of housing tenure within a dynamic utility maximization model that yields simple analytical results under uncertainty of income, housing prices, and rents. Given a housing consumption plan, we show that a decrease in the covariance between a household's earnings and housing rents increases the likelihood of ownership. A household who plans to remain in its home over a long period is more likely to own; a household who plans to remain in its home over a short period is more likely to rent. The higher the covariance between the user cost of a home and that of other properties a household is likely to consider in the future, the more likely the household is to own this home. These predictions of our model find support in recent empirical studies.     

房屋拆迁会刺激家庭的金融市场参与吗？——一个心理账户的分析视角

在心理账户的作用下,拆迁补偿款的发放使得家庭更加倾向于参与金融市场投资,因此房屋拆迁将会显著提高家庭的金融市场参与度。对此,基于中国家庭金融调查（CHIP2013）和中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS2018）数据,运用工具变量法,实证检验了房屋拆迁对家庭金融市场参与的影响,结果表明,房屋拆迁会在一定程度上促进家庭的金融市场参与,且这一效果在消费支出少和金融资产余额多的家庭中更加显著。同时,中介效应检验结果发现,在房屋拆迁促进家庭金融市场参与的过程中,家庭可支配收入发挥了部分中介作用。这意味着,在房屋拆迁补偿中,不仅拆迁户应该警惕过度参与金融市场的非理性行为,而且政府和金融机构也应该组织和提供不同形式的金融教育,提高拆迁户的金融素养,从而预防拆迁返贫的悲剧。     

物价上涨对不同收入群体消费支出的影响分析——以广东省为例

为了考察物价上涨对居民生活的影响,本文以广东省为例,从短期和长期两个方面对不同收入层城镇居民的消费支出变动情况进行了实证分析。结果表明,从短期看,物价上涨使城镇不同收入层居民的消费支出出现不同程度的增加,但低收入层居民消费性支出的增长幅度最大,普遍高于其他收入层居民。从长期看,物价上涨对城镇不同收入层居民消费支出的影响方向和程度不尽相同,其中使低收入户、中低收入户和高收入户的支出增加,而使中等收入户和中高收入户的支出减少。但是,无论是从长期还是从短期看,物价上涨对低收入户的影响最大,其消费性支出的增长幅度均高于其他收入群体的支出增长幅度。