私人消费、净产出与国际金融发展——基于“金砖国家”的实证比较分析

本文基于私人消费和净产出关系测度国际资本流动水平,采用混合OLS、Swamy随机系数模型和状态向量空间三种计量方法比较分析"金砖国家"国际资本流动水平和变化过程,进而评估各国国际金融的发展水平和系统稳健性。结果表明:"金砖国家"总体国际金融发展水平较低且各国之间存在较大差异性,其中印度一直保持对资本流动的严格管制,而南非对资本管制一直相对宽松。俄罗斯的资本流动水平最高,但其变化最为剧烈,中国和巴西的资本流动水平和变化程度则处于中间位置。各国应重新审视自身存在的问题,促进国际金融健康发展。     

Global outsourcing or foreign direct investment: Why apple chose outsourcing for the iPod

A simple model is presented, where a firm's productivity is endogenized by its R&D investment. It shows that the most productive firms may prefer international outsourcing to foreign direct investment (FDI) in industries with a high innovation share. The high innovation share motivates the firms to economize on organizational cost in order to save resources for R&D investment, making outsourcing preferable to FDI because the former incurs a smaller organizational cost. This model helps explain why Apple Inc., belonging to the electronics industry, which has a particularly high innovation share, launched its innovative iPod through international outsourcing instead of FDI.     

Do International Remittances Affect Poverty in Africa?*

Abstract: International remittances flowing into developing countries are attracting increasing attention because of their rising volume and their impact on recipient countries. This paper uses a panel data set on poverty and international remittances for African countries to examine the impact of international remittances on poverty reduction in 33 African countries over the period 1990–2005. We find that international remittances—defined as the share of remittances in country GDP—reduce the level, depth, and severity of poverty in Africa. But the size of the poverty reduction depends on how poverty is being measured. After instrumenting for the possible endogeneity of international remittances, we find that a 10 percent increase in official international remittances as a share of GDP leads to a 2.9 percent decline in the poverty headcount or the share of people living in poverty. Also, the more sensitive poverty measures—the poverty gap (poverty depth) and squared poverty gap (poverty severity)—suggest that international remittances will have a similar impact on poverty reduction. The point estimates for the poverty gap and squared poverty gap suggest that a 10 percent increase in the share of international remittances will lead to a 2.9 percent and 2.8 percent decline, respectively, in the depth and severity of poverty in African countries. Regardless of the measure of poverty used as the dependent variable, income inequality (Gini index) has a positive and significant coefficient, indicating that greater inequality is associated with higher poverty in African countries, much in conformity with the literature. Similar results were obtained for trade openness. In the same vein, per capita income has a negative and significant effect on each measure of poverty used in the study. Our results also show that inflation rates positively and significantly affect poverty incidence, depth and severity in Africa. In all three poverty measures, the dummy variable for sub‐Saharan Africa is strongly positive, and strongly negative for North Africa. The policy implications of these results are discussed.     

Determinants of Household Income Mobility in Rural China

This article uses multivariate regression and decomposition analyses to assess household income mobility determinants and their contributions to income mobility in rural China from 1989 to 2006. The findings indicate that households with lower initial income level, higher share of wage income, higher educational level of household members, larger number of non-agricultural employed household members and younger heads are more mobile. Moreover, besides initial income, change in the share of wage income, change in the share of non-agricultural employed household members, and change in average year of education of household members are the most important factors that account for income mobility. These findings necessitate more emphasis on policies that promote non-agricultural employment and education to enhance household income mobility in rural China.     

Home-product bias, capital mobility, and macroeconomic volatility

This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium two-country optimizingmodel to analyse the consequences of international capital mobilityfor macroeconomic volatility. To this end, the dynamic macroeconomiceffects of a monetary policy, a fiscal policy, and a labor supplyshock are analysed. Simulations are used to analyse the implicationsof changes in the degree of capital mobility for the propagationof shocks. The simulation results obtained for a bond economyare compared with the simulation results obtained for a complete-marketeconomy. It is shown that allowing for a home-product bias inpreferences has a number of interesting implications for theway changes in international capital mobility and in the structureof international financial markets affect how shocks propagatethrough an open economy.     

Managing the Monetary Consequences of Reserve Accumulation in Emerging Asia

Abstract

The huge increase in international reserve holdings by Asian countries since the 1997 crisis has been one of the most important recent developments on the international financial scene. These buildups have contributed substantially to concerns about the creation of excessive global liquidity. How justified these concerns are depends heavily on the extent to which the reserve accumulating countries have been able to sterilize the effects on their domestic monetary aggregates. We use a unified theoretical framework to undertake dynamic estimations of the magnitude of sterilization and offset coefficients (which measure the degree of capital mobility) for a large set of Asian economies. We find that despite substantial capital mobility there has been a high degree of effective sterilization to date.     

Unit root tests of capital mobility in the less developed countries

Conclusions This article contributes to the ongoing debate on international capital mobility in the LDCs. The extent of capital mobility has been assessed in a time-series context, performing unit root tests on the adjusted current account for thirty-seven developing countries. The results show that the hypothesis of capital mobility cannot be rejected in a large number of countries.     

International Technology Diffusion: Effects of Trade and FDI

There has been little analysis of the effect of inward FDI on international R&D diffusion, especially in LDCs, although FDI has become the core of international production and LDCs have been receiving an increasing share of world FDI over the past few decades. Using data from 57 countries from 1988 to 2001, we find that both FDI and trade serve as important channels of international technology diffusion. However, there exist heterogeneous effects of FDI in DCs and LDCs. For inward FDI to promote technology diffusion in LDCs, a certain threshold of human capital has to be reached.     

The theory of effective protection a critique

Summary A linear two-by-two general equilibrium model of international trade has been developed with international mobility of capital goods and capital funds. By means of this model the consequences of imposing an ad valorem tariff on imported inputs and imported consumption have been investigated. Special attention has been paid to the consequences of a differentiated tariff structure for total imports.The analysis leads to the conclusion that in the present model a unique relation between the differentiated tariff structure and the effective protective rate does not exist.In many respects this article draws heavily upon my doctoral dissertation:Heterogeen kapitaal en internationale handel, mimeographed, Tilburg, 1973     

中国摆脱依附式发展与中美贸易冲突根源

中美贸易冲突根源的探寻不应停留在国际贸易层次,而是应该从当下的国际分工结构和国际生产关系中去寻找。作者从马克思主义国际政治经济学角度出发,认为国际分工及其相应的国际生产关系是决定国家在世界舞台上政治经济地位与利益的基础。发展中国家在传统的国际分工结构中长期处于外围、在生产关系上处于依附地位的根本原因在于生产力落后,特别是技术水平落后。20世纪70年代以来,全球生产链作为一种新的国际生产组织方式逐渐形成并发展起来。在这一新的国际分工生产中,发展中国家的依附地位并没有改变,但是具体的依附形式不同于历史上的依附形式,呈现出“技术—市场”依附的特点。在这种新的依附形式下,广大参与全球生产链分工的发展中国家只能从中获得微薄的附加值,进而形成一种依附式发展,而西方发达国家的跨国企业却能够主导全球生产进程并从中获得高额的附加值。中国要实现现代化强国的目标,就需要摆脱依附式发展模式,实现在全球生产链中从中低端向中高端的攀升。近年来中国在发展高新技术产业和提升世界市场地位方面的努力及其获得的相应成就触动了美国作为现有国际分工主导者的既得利益。为了维护其霸权的经济基础,美国不惜发起贸易战以遏制中国的发展有其必然性。中国摆脱依附式发展以及美国相对衰落所导致的国际分工格局现实和潜在的变化正是中美贸易冲突爆发的根源所在。     

国际旅游岛视角下旅游电子商务的前瞻性预测分析及解决方案

国际旅游岛建设的进程中,开放的政策会有机会让更多的国外旅行社参与竞争,按国际惯例,先进的"电子商务"手段是国外旅行社占领其他国家旅游市场份额最常用、最有效的手段,旅游电子商务行业已经成为了全球的投资热点。     

新疆国际入境旅游客源市场的SSM分析

本文选取新疆国际入境旅游客源市场2002年至2006年的数据,以全国国际入境旅游市场为参照系,运用区域经济分析中的偏离一份额分析法,对新疆国际入境旅游客源市场进行了分析。结果表明：与全国比较,新疆国际入境旅游客源市场总体发展缓慢,竞争力弱化趋势明显,但市场结构相对合理,效果较好。2006年的客源市场比重与2002年相比,俄罗斯、美国、日本、澳大利亚等客源市场重要程度有所下降,但饿罗斯市场仍然占据榜首;而韩国、德国、法国、加拿大等客源市场重要程度有所上升,其中,韩国市场上升最快,不仅是主要的客源市场,而且是新疆国际旅游经济的增长点,发展前景广阔;其余客源市场则相对变化不大,趋于相对稳定状态。     

要素流动对世界经济增长的影响机理

在全球化背景下生产一体化进一步深化,国际直接投资超越国际贸易成为世界经济运行的主要特征,要素流动加剧。传统的经济增长理论强调要素积累的作用,忽略了要素流动本身对增长的影响。本文基于世界经济运行特征的变化,以要素流动的视角,从微观到中观再到宏观,分析了要素流动对世界经济增长的影响机理。     

Tariff and Quota Reform with International Capital Mobility

In a small, open economy with a convex production set, international capital mobility raises the cost of tariff protection on one subset of imports if there are irremovable quotas on another. Given irremovable quotas on one subset of imports, free trade is the optimal policy toward all other imports, with or without international capital mobility. Further, in the scalar case, international capital mobility reduces the optimal implicit excess tariff on the quota-constrained import if an irremovable tariff is in place on the other import.     

Above board? Interlocking directorates and corporate contagion in 1980s Australia

The 1980s were an outrageous time in Australia's business history. This paper re-examines this era of misconduct, assessing the role of interlocking directorates for corporate governance of diversified business groups. Professional interlocked executives—those with professional training, executive status and mobility between member firms—enabled the takeover culture of the time, and allowed managers to ignore promised strategic benefits and redirect associated firms towards speculative share ownership. These results demonstrate the importance of board independence for corporate governance, and the way that expertise has been weaponised within managerial capitalism to encourage trust in risky and exploitative corporate structures.     

1998～2008年广东国际入境旅游客源市场竞争态研究

入境旅游的游客数量及其增长率是反映一个国家和地区国际旅游发展水平的重要指标。本文将BCG Matrix模型应用于广东国际入境旅游客源市场研究中,选取市场占有率和市场增长率两个指标构建旅游市场竞争态,对1999~2008年广东省主要的入境旅游客源市场在广东国际旅游中的市场占有率和市场增长率进行分析,通过分析揭示出了广东入境游客的变化情况。最后,在此基础之上提出了相应的市场开拓策略。     

Openness and economic growth in developing countries

Openness and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. — Openness appears to have a strong impact on economic growth especially in DCs which typically exhibit a high share of physical capital in factor income and a low share of labor. In the neoclassical growth model with partial capital mobility, physical capital’s share in factor income determines the difference in the predicted convergence rates for open and closed economies. With a 60 percent share as in many DCs, the convergence rates should differ by a factor of 2.5. The regression results for a sample of open and closed DCs roughly confirm this hypothesis.     

国际货币基金组织份额与投票权改革

国际金融危机凸显出国际货币基金组织(IMF)份额与投票权机制的诸多弊端。在多次G20峰会的推动下,IMF份额改革不断稳步推进。G20首尔峰会正式确认发达国家向新兴市场和发展中国家转移超过6%的份额。这是IMF历史上一次最根本性的治理改革,有着多方面的国际政治经济背景。份额改革使中国坐上了IMF的第三把交椅,带来了新的机遇与挑战。     

Saving,investment, and capital mobility among OECD countries

Historically investigations of the international mobility of capital have studied rates of return on similar assets denominated in different currencies. Recently, however, efforts directed at ascertaining the degree of international capital mobility have examined the relationship between domestic saving and investment rates. The first approach assesses the mobility of groups of financial assets which represent the existing capital stock while the latter actually scrutinizes the mobility of new physical capital.This paper employs the second approach in a times series study of capital mobility among OECD countries. Implementation of four different tests of the saving-investment relationship suggest that physical capital is more mobile than previous studies have indicated.     

Wage-Tenure Profiles and Mobility

The Dutch labour market is characterized by low job mobility and high average duration of unemployment for older jobseekers. This study investigates the role of wage-tenure profiles in explaining patterns of job mobility. Based on a large administrative database, the estimates show that wage-tenure profiles in the Netherlands are relatively steep. Furthermore, industries with high returns to tenure appear to have a high share of older workers, as well as high average job tenure. This implies that steep wage-tenure profiles are related to low levels of mobility.