India's trade with the socialist countries

India's trade with the socialist countries increased most rapidly after 1960. This rapid growth occured in a framework of bilateral trade agreements, the distinct feature of which was that payments for all transactions were made in rupees. The USSR was by far the most important trading partner. Bilateral rupee trade provided India with imports that were essential for its development programme and was also responsible for a little more than 40 per cent of the growth in India's total exports between 1960/1 and 1972/3. In view of the fact that a large proportion of it constituted a net increase in exports and was probably at better terms of trade, there is no doubt that India derived substantial benefits from its trade with the socialist countries.     

Pakistan's development: An overview

This is the text of two lectures given in the summer of 1980, one at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, and the other at the National Defense College, Rawalpindi, Pakistan. The lectures attempted to identify some non-economic determinants of Pakistan's economic performance since the standard economic explanations are not very satisfactory for analysing the country's rather erratic performance over the last three decades. The lectures reviewed Pakistan's economic history from 1947, the time of independence, to 1977, when political power moved once again from a civilian government to a military regime. The lectures underscored the importance of the nature of external economic development, the extent of government commitment to development and the level of participation in economic management as important determinants of economic performance. One of the important conclusions reached was that the governments in the Third World must pay heed to these factors in planning for the difficult times that lie ahead.     

Does foreign aid promote recipient exports to donor countries?

This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the effect of foreign aid on exports of aid recipients to donor countries. Most of the theoretical work emphasises the possible negative impact of aid on recipient countries’ exports, primarily due to exchange rate appreciation, disregarding possible positive effects of aid in overcoming supply bottlenecks and promoting bilateral trade relations. Using non-stationary panel (cointegration) estimators to control for omitted variable and endogeneity bias, we find that the net effect of aid on recipient countries’ exports is insignificant, both for our sample (of 123 countries) as a whole and for important regional sub-samples. This finding is in line with the small or insignificant macroeconomic impact of aid found in earlier studies and also suggests that exporters in recipient countries are not benefiting from improved trade relations with donors.     

Development assistance: Trade versus aid and the relative performance of industrial countries

Given that both theory and empirical analyses show that foreign trade and aid have similar effects on the development process, this study develops a methodology for assessing the joint (aid plus trade) contribution of industrial countries. The results show that countries like Sweden, Norway and Denmark, which are generally regarded as having liberal aid policies, perform below average when the combined effects of aid and trade are considered while the United Kingdom, Netherland and Belgium emerge as making maximum contributions to development. In addition, the trade practices of the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany largely offset these countries relatively poor aid record. The trade and aid contribution of the USSR and other socialist countries of Europe are also shown to fall far below that of the poorest performing DAC members. If the socialist countries matched average DAC performance measures their imports from developing countries would increase by $7 billion and their aid flows would be $3.1 billion higher. Finally, this study calls into question the rationale for uniform aid targets which do not account for the donor's differential trade contribution to the development effort.     

Trade effects of European Community preferences to Mediterranean countries: The case of textile and clothing imports

The European Community (EC)'s preferential trade agreements with Mediterranean countries have been subject to little ex post assessment. This paper analyses the preferences' impact on EC textile and clothing imports from Mediterranean countries. The preferred imports grew faster than world trade or OECD imports from developing countries, and as a proportion of EC imports and Mediterranean exports; EC preferences thus appear to have had a significant effect on Mediterranean countries' textile and clothing exports, although some recipients have taken greater advantage than others. Post-1977 EC protectionism in these products further benefited the preference-recipients, who were largely unimpeded by quatitative restrictions.     

当前中巴经贸关系发展中的制约因素及应对策略

长期以来,中巴关系一直被视为不同社会制度、不同政治意识形态合作的典范,被视为全天候的、经过时间考验的战略伙伴关系。但是,目前中巴“全天候”、“全方位”的关系只存在于政治领域,双方的经贸关系依然发展缓慢。面对中巴关系“政热经冷”的局面,本文分析了制约两国经贸关系发展的因素,并提出应对措施,从而进一步提升双方的经贸关系。只有双方的经贸关系也发展起来了,中巴才能真正建立起“全天候、全方位”的友谊。     

Egypt's economic relations with the socialist countries

The economic relations between Egypt and the socialist countries (1948-73) are discussed and appraised in the context of the political, economic and historical factors which brought them about and maintained them. It is argued that, because of special circumstances, Egypt had little choice but to develop close economic ties with the Soviet bloc. Bilateral trade has known disadvantages; the USSR, however, links trade with generous credit-an attractive feature for LDCs suffering from chronic balance-of-payments deficits. Other advantages and costs of bilateral trade are also discussed. The paper includes comments on Soviet development assistance. A main theme is that Egypt, considering the restrictions imposed on her options by the polarization of the Arab-Israeli conflict, fared well in the relationship. Export and import prices in bilateral agreements seem to have corresponded to world prices, often with a premium in Egypt's favour. Egypt also benefited from a large inflow of resources and from a significant contribution to domestic capital formation.     

Foreign aid as a promotional strategy

Developed countries are motivated by several forces when allocating aid to developing countries. The forces could be humanitarian in one country, and commercial self-interests in another. The principal objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness of aid as a promotional strategy for trade, and to investigate whether major donor countries are optimally allocating their aid resources to increase their export and total trade. Models were developed to explore the effectiveness of aid as a promotional instrument for exports and total trade. Donor exports and total trade were expressed as functions of aid, per capita GNP of the recipient country, and aid from competing donors. The study showed that exports and total trade responded to total expected aid contributions and per capita GNP of the recipient countries. Also, all donors, but one, were maximizing the returns to aid, given the level of trade with recipient countries and will be reluctant to increase aid flows, given the current trade level.     

Bangladesh's trade and economic relations with the socialist countries

After her independence in 1971, the economic relations between Bangladesh and the European socialist countries developed to a greater extent than before. But the socialist countries still remain relatively small trading partners of Bangladesh. Their share in the total aid received by the heavily aid-dependent Bangladesh has also not been very great. It is not possible to arrive at any precise estimate of the terms of trade and aid between Bangladesh and the socialist countries, but some rudimentary measurements show that they are unlikely to have been very different from those between Bangladesh and the rest of the world.     

US and China aid to Africa: Impact on the donor-recipient trade relations

This paper investigates the impact of the US and China's foreign aids to Africa on trade flows between donor and recipient countries. Evidence from the gravity model estimates reveals that the two donors' exports are strengthened by their aids to African partners. Interestingly, China's aid shows a positive effect on its total volume of trade and imports from Africa, while the aid from the US exhibits little impact on the US-Africa total trade and its imports from Africa. A possible explanation for such a difference could be due to the dissimilar national interests of donors in Africa. This study finally suggests that African countries should accelerate the pace of advancing domestic economies and rely less on foreign assistance, in order to establish a fairer and more equal international economic order.     

Aid-for-trade facilitation

‘Aid for Trade’ is an ongoing and high-profile discussion associated with the Doha negotiations of the World Trade Organization. It also relates to questions of how best to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Questions remain, however, about whether foreign aid spent on trade facilitation increases trade flows of developing countries. Does it work differently from aid in general? Using detailed data on aid flows from the OECD, the analysis here estimates the relationship between specific types of aid and trade flows, both globally and of the aid recipients. The findings indicate that aid spent on promoting trade is positively associated with global trade. For most types of such aid-for-trade facilitation, it is relatively more strongly associated with recipient exports than their imports. In contrast ‘other’ types of aid are more strongly associated with recipient imports. Based on elasticities estimated over 16 years of trade and aid data for 40 donor countries and about 170 country trading pairs, our results suggest that a 1% increase in aid-for-trade facilitation (of about US220 million in 2008) correlates to about US 220 million in 2008) correlates to about US 290 million of additional exports from the aid receiving countries.     

全球华人网络的出口贸易效应及其影响机制研究

文章利用全球131个国家(或地区)的华人网络和贸易数据,考察了华人网络对国家之间出口贸易的影响,通过区分华人网络中的直接联系与间接联系,检验了移民偏好机制和移民信息机制的有效性。研究结果表明:华人网络不仅会通过直接联系促进中国对海外华人所在国出口贸易的增长,而且会通过间接联系带动海外华人所在国之间出口贸易规模的扩大;移民信息机制是华人网络促进国家之间出口贸易增长的主要机制,但是,华人网络会同时通过移民信息机制和移民偏好机制促进差异化商品和资本品出口贸易增长。进一步的研究发现,发达国家移民网络的出口贸易创造效应普遍高于发展中国家,华人网络的出口贸易创造效应明显高于其他发展中国家。因此,中国不仅要重视海外华人在促进中国出口发展中的重要作用,而且要积极地引进国际人才特别是来自发达国家的国际人才,通过参与其他国家的移民网络构建中国与世界各国的联系,促进中国出口贸易稳定增长。     

Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns

We apply a modified "gravity model" incorporating measures of factor endowments to analyze Japanese and U.S. bilateral trade flows and direct foreign investment positions with a sample of around 100 countries for the period 1985–1990. Country features that our analysis takes into account are population, income, the land–labor ratio, the average level of education, and region. We find that features of a country associated with more trade with either Japan or the United States also tend to be associated with more direct foreign investment (DFI) from Japan or the United States. U.S. economic relations with Japan and Western Europe provide an important exception. Despite U.S. concern about its trade deficit with Japan, we find Japan to be much more open to the United States, not only as a source of imports, but also as a destination for U.S. exports than most countries in Western Europe. Taking other factors into account, however, Western Europe is more open to U.S. direct foreign investment. We also find that a country′s level of education tends to increase significantly U.S. interaction of all types with that country, even after correcting for per capita income. Education does not play a significant role in Japanese trade patterns. As factor endowment theory would predict, the United States tends to trade more with densely populated countries, while Japan tends to import more from sparsely populated countries. Even after taking into account population, income, factor endowments, and region, there is a substantial degree of "bilateralism" in Japanese and U.S. economic relationships in that the residual correlation among exports, imports, and outward direct foreign investment is much larger than would be the case if these magnitudes were independent across countries. J. Japan. Int. Econ. December 1994, 8(4), pp. 478–510. Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215; and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.     

New Borders and Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Baltic States

The objective of this paper is to provide evidence on the effects of an economic and political union by studying the trade flows of the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the breakup of the Soviet Union. We specify and estimate a gravity model of exports for the Nordic countries which enables us to determine the size and direction of trade flows in the Baltic states had they not been affected by the political institutions of the Soviet Union. Our results suggest that Baltic foreign trade was not only reduced significantly but also diverted to the members of the former Soviet Union. Consistent with our estimates, we also find that these consequences of the former political union are quickly dissipating, and the Baltic countries are increasing their share of exports to the European Union and the U.S.     

Trade and growth: The Nigerian experience

This paper analyses the impact of trade on Nigeria's economic growth. Using a two-gap model, it estimates the relationships between exports, foreign capital and economic growth. The paper also provides an assessment of the relative influence of Nigeria's two main types of export (agricultural produce and petroleum) on economic growth. The results of the analysis provide empirical support for the hypothesis that trade has been an important engine of growth in Nigeria. The paper recommends, as part of Nigeria's strategy for achieving rapid economic development, the vigorous pursuit of an export promotion policy.     

中国对非援助的出口贸易效应——基于出口增加值的视角

基于Eora26投入产出表数据和全球中国官方金融数据库，本文检验了中国对非援助与中国对非出口增加值的因果关系及机制。研究结果显示：(1)中国对非援助可以显著提升中国对非出口增加值，在进行了一系列的稳健性检验和处理了内生性问题后，该结论依然成立；(2)提高非洲国家的交通和通信设施质量是中国对非援助影响出口增加值的主要机制；(3)中国对非援助的出口增加值效应会随产业分类、援助类型的不同而产生差异；(4)进一步研究表明，非洲接受的DAC发展委员会国家和国际多边组织援助的“碎片化”会削弱中国对非援助的出口增加值的促进作用，这种影响在经济实力和政府治理能力较弱的非洲国家更为明显。本文的结论为中国对非援助的贸易效应提供了进一步的经验支持，并揭示了中国对非援助影响中国对非出口增加值的内在规律。这对于加强中非经贸关系，构建“中非命运共同体”具有重要意义。     

Giving and Receiving Foreign Aid: Does Conflict Count?

Of what relative importance are strategic motivators for bilateral aid donors, and how important is a recipient’s geographic proximity to conflict relative to previously examined economic and political motivators? We find that donors have historically responded to balanced incentives to reduce recipient poverty and further donor political and economic goals. Every bilateral donor conditions aid on conflict. The United States allocates large amounts of development aid to countries bordering a conflict, both pre- and post-Cold War. However, controlling for development levels and donor economic and political interest, most donors reduce aid to a recipient with an in-house or nearby intense conflict.     

国外对华反倾销的经济与政治动因

中国是世界上遭遇反倾销诉讼最多的国家,以反倾销为手段的贸易保护已经成为制约中国对外贸易可持续发展的巨大障碍。本文重点分析对华反倾销的成因,探究进口国宏观经济和政治因素对反倾销行为的影响。研究发现:各国对华反倾销立案的宏观经济与政治动因存在显著的差异性。本文揭示了各国对华反倾销立案的内在动因,得出了具有价值的比较研究结论。     

A comprehensive economic partnership between India and Japan: Impact,prospects and challenges

This paper examines the benefits and challenges of the 2011 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Japan, specifically the ways to maximize gains from their complementary economies, trade and FDI relations. It also measures the partnership's economy-wide impact empirically, and its role in regional and global integration. An analysis of the trade intensity indices shows that the bilateral trade flow is small considering the other country's importance in world trade, suggesting the existence of great potential for improving trade relations. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the economy wide impact of the CEPA suggests that tariff reductions will create a marginal increase in output growth for both India and Japan as compared to the business as usual scenario. In terms of the effect on exports, India's exports to Japan would increase more than those of Japan to India while positive net welfare gains are expected for both countries as a result of trade liberalization. This is in contrast to the study by Ahmed (2010), which finds welfare gains only for Japan, not for India. Furthermore, one of the striking results of the paper is that Japan will not reduce its heavy reliance on the Chinese market, though India will. In general, India, compared to Japan, will gain more, if CEPA materializes by 2020. Japan too will have welfare gains in spite of opening up the agriculture sector with 100% tariff reduction by 2020. Both countries need to accelerate structural reforms to remove the border barriers in addition to reducing tariffs, in order to reap maximum benefit of their economic partnership.     

A review of trade trends: South Africa and the Indian Ocean Rim

Since 1990, intense diplomatic efforts have taken place to secure and negotiate trade treaties with South Africa's traditional trading partners (the European Union, in particular) and those countries in close geographic proximity. This article examines South Africa's trade links with some of its ‘non‐traditional’ trading partners, in particular the countries of the Indian Ocean Rim (IOR), in an attempt to ascertain the nature of the trade and its importance vis‐a‐vis the rest of the world. An examination of trade data for the years 1992‐5 indicates that trade with the IOR consists mainly of the mutual exchange of natural resource products and that this trade is growing much faster than South Africa ‘s trade in general. Given this trade dynamism, South Africa should pay increasing attention to international relations with these countries. South African trade with the Rim was also found to differ from trade with the rest of the world in that it comprises the mutual exchange of natural resource‐based products. This research shows that our imports and exports are positively related to the gross domestic product of our trading partners, and negatively related to their population size and distance from South Africa. Also, more open economies have absorbed more exports from South Africa. There is some ambiguity as to the role that distance plays in determining the level of imports into this country. The intensity indices computed in this article have to be viewed in the light of this research.