Patterns of growth in Chinese cities: Implications of the land lease

A special feature of China’s housing market is land use rights in the form of land leasehold contracts granted by the government. We consider an equilibrium model in which a representative developer may choose to redevelop existing centrally located housing or to develop new housing at the periphery of the city. We show that as the city grows, the land leasehold system results in the city center being developed less intensely and more land being used on the outskirts of the city when compared to a fee simple environment. Thus, cities in China are likely to be relatively more spread out, with city centers relatively older than would be the case with “fee simple” ownership. Our model suggests that excess residential land use is about 6 percent. In addition, compared with the ownership case, housing supply will grow more quickly in the near future, but more slowly later on during the transition of the Chinese economy. Parallel to the supply growth pattern, equilibrium price grows relative slowly in the near future, but more quickly later on. While we focus on residential uses, we believe our model can be applied to other land uses.     

The spatial effects of a tax on housing and land

This paper analytically investigates the spatial consequences of a tax on housing and land. In general, a property tax is not spatially neutral; instead it disproportionately affects certain parts of the city. The property tax can therefore create distributional inequities and can distort the pattern of residential and industrial location. We derive conditions on locational preferences and housing production that determine which parts of a city will be disproportionately affected by a property tax. Empirical estimates suggest that central locations will be disproportionately affected by property taxes.     

大学毕业生住房问题研究——以南京为例

随着城市化进程的发展,城市住房需求逐渐增多,房价也不断上涨,大学毕业生群体多选择城市就业,他们在刚毕业几年间的住房问题越来越突出。文章通过调查问卷的方式以南京为例,对留南京发展的毕业5年内的大学毕业生做了调查,分析其住房难的问题,并给出相应的解决措施,以期对大学毕业生住房条件的改善有所帮助。     

经济适用房空间布局分析——以北京市为例

经济适用房的建设和布局对城市空间结构和居住者出行具有重要影响。首先采用Kernel密度估计方法计算了北京不同时期经济适用房在不同空间上的建设规模密度,分析其空间布局特征;其次,从经济适用房与地价、交通和主要就业地的相互关系分析经济适用房空间布局的演变。研究表明,北京经济适用房空间布局经历了逐步调整的过程,前期主要分布在城市北部城乡结合地带,后期考虑居民交通出行和到工作地方便等因素,在城市四周较均匀的配置和建设。总体来说,北京市经济适用住房基本分布在城市郊区,就业地与居住地相距较远的矛盾依然突出。建议今后经济适用房空间布局应更加注重主要就业地和居民交通出行的最佳匹配。     

THE ELASTICITY OF CAPITAL–LAND SUBSTITUTION IN THE HOUSING CONSTRUCTION SECTOR OF A RAPIDLY URBANIZED CITY: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

This paper estimates the elasticity of capital-land substitution for the housing market in Ankara, the capital city of Turkey. Using constant elasticity of substitution (CES) and variable elasticity of substitution (VES) production functions and cross-section data, the paper provides new information to compare the housing supply elasticity of Ankara with that of the USA and the UK cases. Our regression results reveal that housing supply in Ankara is highly inelastic due to the uniform construction regime of local authorities. Moreover, we find that there is a considerable spatial differentiation of urban land density measures within the capital city. Because of the incomplete urbanization process, the elasticity of capital-land substitution is significantly higher in the outer parts of the city.     

The short-run comparative statics of a rental housing market

This paper examines the short-run effects of changes in exogenous variables (including several government policies) on the schedule relating market equilibrium rent to quality level. The basic model differs from Sweeney (Econometrica, 42, 147–167 (1974)) by use of a bid rent closed city approach rather than a supply and demand (partially) open city approach. The mathematics changes completely, the analytics simplify, and the results change somewhat. Housing is treated as a durable quality differentiated good, but frictional forces and the multidimensionality of the housing package are ignored. The exception is an extension to a monocentric city context, so that housing units vary in both quality and location.     

北京市公共住房区位布局研究

本文针对城市公共住房的区位布局问题，运用Arcview GIS 3．3软件，采集了北京127个已经建设或即将建设的公共住房数据，分析出北京市公共住房区位布局存在的突出特点是北部过于集中、南部带状分布，不断向外扩张，并产生了空间失配等问题。根据以上问题，提出了在城市中心区、边缘区和新城的公共住房建设区位政策，并指出应大力发展混合住区。     

房价收入比与城市居民购房支付能力实证研究——以南宁市为例

房价问题既是经济问题又是民生问题。确定房价收入比合理区间、探究居民住房支付能力对于政府制定住房政策,提高居民居住水平具有十分重要的意义。本文以南宁市为例,通过测算2006—2010年南宁市城镇居民房价收入比合理区间,研究不同收入群体对各户型住宅的购房支付能力。研究表明,南宁市居民购房支付能力呈梯级状分布,普通购房者面临购房困难、住房供给结构不合理,因此政府在调控房地产市场时要更具有针对性。     

The flight to the suburbs: insights gained from an analysis of central-city vs suburban housing costs

The central thesis of this paper is that the prices people pay for housing can be used to determine whether the movement of population to the suburbs is caused primarily by attraction to suburban advantages or by the desire to escape deteriorating conditions in the central city. Estimates of the coefficients indicating the price of central city versus suburban housing in the United States are presented and analyzed using a regression model.     

An open-city model with nonmalleable housing

Previous city and housing models are extended to allow for the nonmalleability of housing and two classes of residents. The model, which is framed in the context of a monocentric circular city, assumes an individual housing unit to be defined in terms of attributes (quality and residential density). The quality of a given housing unit can be varied without adjustment costs, but changes in residential density on a particular site require prior demolition of the existing structure on the site. Producers of housing and consumers are assumed to be myopic. By assuming that the city is in short-run equilibrium at each point of time, it is shown that the pattern of land use observed at any stage depends on the past history of the city and the current rates of population growth. The possibilities for filtering of houses from one income group to another are also discussed briefly.     

北京市公共住房区位布局研究

本文针对城市公共住房的区位布局问题,运用Arcview GIS 3.3软件,采集了北京127个已经建设或即将建设的公共住房数据,分析出北京市公共住房区位布局存在的突出特点是北部过于集中、南部带状分布,不断向外扩张,并产生了空间失配等问题。根据以上问题,提出了在城市中心区、边缘区和新城的公共住房建设区位政策,并指出应大力发展混合住区。     

限购政策对城市住房市场的调控效应分析——以天津市为例

为评估限购政策对城市住房市场的调控效应,借助灰色系统理论的灰色关联分析法构建数学模型,以天津市为例,对限购政策实施前后城市住房市场的变动情况进行了比较分析。结果显示,与限购政策实施前相比,天津市的住宅现房销售面积、住宅期房销售面积在时间上均出现了明显的滞后;住宅施工面积在时间上则未明显的变化;住宅投资完成额和住宅新开工面积在时间上则有少许提前。由此可以认为,限购政策的实施引起了住房市场供需双方行动方向的分异,降低了需求者群体的住房需求量,加快了供应者群体的供应速度,增加了市场住房供应量。     

浅议房屋建筑施工安全及安全管理

现在房屋建筑想朝着结构形式复杂、功能齐全和综合性强的方向发展。因此,房屋建筑与大城市之间的关系问题也较为突出。本文主要是对当前房屋建筑施工安全管理体制中存在的问题进行全面的分析,以此提出相关的房屋建筑施工安全管理的措施,保证房屋建筑工程施工的进度和质量。     

对某市廉租房政策的另类思考

本文以某城市近期拟为低收入者大量新建廉租房的住房政策引出问题,从住宅经济学中的过滤理论和某些国家在类似住房政策实施方面的经验这两个角度出发,对此问题进行一些分析,并提出笔者的一些看法:该市此项住房政策可能导致其房地产市场的退化;造成资源的浪费;并带来许多社会问题.     

Determinants of house prices in Istanbul: a quantile regression approach

This paper uses quantile regression methods where a hedonic equation is estimated for each quantile of the conditional distribution of housing prices. The survey data are used to investigate the relationship between house prices and housing characteristics in Istanbul. This data set includes some housing characteristics of the dwellings like numbers of room, bathroom, heating system, location of house etc. In the results of this paper show some similarities and differences from earlier studies on housing prices. We find that age, cable tv, security, heating system, garage, kitchen area, increasing numbers of room and bathroom increase the house prices. Our findings also show that side variable which is a special factor for Istanbul real estate market has negative effect on the prices. It is clear that the factors of housing prices can change because of the properties of country, region or city. The results of this study may give some important interpretations for developing real estate market.     

Property taxation and the demand for housing: An econometric analysis

There is disagreement among economists regarding the effect of a local increase in property taxation on the housing market. In defining the price of housing services studies of the demand for housing have treated the property tax exclusively as an excise tax on housing consumption. Two recent theoretical developments suggest this is a misrepresentation of the tax. One theory holds that the excise effects of property taxation may be shifted backward to the factors employed in the production of housing. The other theory concludes that the property tax is not an excise, but rather serves as an efficient price for local public services. To investigate these hypotheses, data from the Annual Housing Survey were employed to estimate a housing demand model which included the net effective property tax rate among the set of independent variables. In addition to revealing the property tax-housing demand relationship, the model provides more reliable estimates of income and price elasticities by eliminating specification errors found in previous studies. Results indicate that the property tax reduces the housing consumption of central city homeowners, but does not distort the suburban housing market.     

Does home owning smooth the variability of future housing consumption?

We show that the hedging benefit of owning a home reduces the variability of housing consumption after a move. When a current home owner’s house price covaries positively with housing costs in a future city, changes in the future cost of housing are offset by commensurate changes in wealth before the move. Using Census micro-data, we find that the cross-sectional variation in house values subsequent to a move is lower for home owners who moved between more highly covarying cities. Our preferred estimates imply that an increase in covariance of one standard deviation reduces the variance of subsequent housing consumption by about 11%. Households at the top end of the covariance distribution who are likely to have owned large homes before moving get the largest reductions, of up to 40% relative to households at the median.     

When Social Infrastructure Deficits Create Displacement Pressures: Inner City Schools and the Suburbanization of Families in Melbourne

Under advanced capitalism, gentrification converges with the post‐Keynesian ‘unhinging' of the state from the project of social reproduction, including its responsibilities for collective consumption (e.g. housing, schools). Gentrification research scrutinizes this convergence through the ongoing assault on social/affordable housing, and yet anaemic housing welfare is not its endpoint. The social contract is further fractured through the ongoing discreditation and dismantling of the full gamut of legacies of the publicly regulated Keynesian inner city, including essential social infrastructure. Focusing on public schools, as an essential site for social reproduction, this article explores how the struggle for the city under neoliberal gentrification may be emerging along additional (non‐housing) vectors. Based on a qualitative study of families' experiences of poor public education provision in central Melbourne (Australia), this article argues that the exclusionary effects of gentrification likely exceed residential encroachment as state subsidization of residents continues to yield to the subsidization of capital. In particular, this article identifies life‐stage specific, infrastructure‐related displacement pressures wrought by a state failure to provide adequate public primary schools in the ‘regeneration' of central Melbourne, and it illustrates how these pressures prompt housing strategies that unevenly divest families of the locational advantages secured in the inner city. Highlighting the role of public school deficits in the reluctant suburbanization of lesser‐resourced families assists in foregrounding state complicity in displacement dynamics and the potential for these to magnify socio‐economic, gendered and socio‐spatial inequalities across the city.     

廉租房相关问题研究

当前房地产市场供给结构性矛盾突出,面向中低收入阶层的经济适用房所占比例较低,对解决中低收入家庭的住房需求作用有限;面向最低收入家庭的廉租住宅严重"缺位",对城市发展过程中廉租房的相关问题进行了研究,目的在于构建面向住房弱势群体的城市住房保障制度.     

Do liberal cities limit new housing development? Evidence from California

Traditional explanations for why some communities block new housing construction focus on incumbent home owner incentives to block entry. Local resident political ideology may also influence community permitting decisions. This paper uses city level panel data across California metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2008 to document that liberal cities grant fewer new housing permits than observationally similar cities located within the same metropolitan area. Cities experiencing a growth in their liberal voter share have a lower new housing permit growth rate.