Intriguing pendula: founding metaphors in the analysis of economic fluctuations

The paper is an inquiry into the definition of the early econometricprogramme, namely into the discussions which Frisch and Schumpeterheld in the early 1930s about the most suitable model for representinginnovations, change and equilibrium in economics. The argument and its framework are briefly presented in thefirst section. The 1931 correspondence between the two foundersof the Econometric Society is discussed in the second section.It provides a magnificent example of the importance of rhetoricsin economics, of the heuristic role of constitutive metaphorsin a research programme and of the difficulties in definingthe most suitable mathematical formalism for dealing with cyclesand structural change. The third section presents the conclusionof the story: the bifurcation between the resulting contributionsmade by Frisch (Propagation problems and impulse problems indynamic economics, pp. 171-205 in Koch, K. (ed.), Economic Essaysin Honour of Gustav Cassel, London, Frank Cass, 1933) and Schumpeter(Business Cycles, New York, McGraw, 1939; and the posthumousvolume, History of Economic Analysis, London, Routledge, 1954).Finally, the fourth section presents an alternative epilogue,highlighting some of the hidden implications of these verbalaccounts of pendula as the founding metaphor for business cycles. The paper is based upon as yet unpublished papers that werefound in Frisch's Collections (Oslo University Library and Frisch'sRommet at the Institute of Economics) and Schumpeter's Collection(Harvard University).     

The stock market and investment: another look at the micro-foundations of q theory

This paper introduces a novel distinction between real q andfinancial q. The paper examines three versions of financialq developed by Brainard and Tobin, Minsky and Hayashi, respectively.These theories differ regarding the nature of stock market pricedetermination and their use of marginal productivity theory.It is shown that non-profit maximising behaviour by managersdoes not invalidate q theory. It is also shown that if managersand shareholders have different profit expectations, this leadsto an equilibrium value of q that differs from unity. Lastly,the implicit claims in q theory regarding the efficient roleof stock markets as regulators of capital accumulation are shownto depend on assumptions about stockholder behaviour.     

Persistent demi-regs and robust tendencies: critical realism and the Singer-Prebisch Thesis

Debate about whether the terms of trade for primary productsrelative to manufactures have a tendency to deteriorate hasbeen ongoing for half a century. The phenomenon itself providesan example of a persistent contrastive demi-regularity. Thisis viewed as the result of a robust tendency, understood asan enduring and pervasive characteristic effect generated bya powerful and stable underlying causal mechanism. On this basis,the key problem for primary products lies in the biologicallimits on consumption, to which may be added capitalism-specifictendencies affecting processes of production and distribution.The paper concludes by arguing that the relevant holistic generictendency under capitalism involves a long-term contraction inthe primary product share of world trade.     

Welfare Migration: Is the Net Fiscal Burden a Good Measure of its Economic Impact on the Welfare of the Native-Born Population?

Migration of young workers (as distinct from retirees), evenwhen driven in by the generosity of the welfare state, slowsdown the trend of increasing dependency ratio. But, even thoughlow-skill migration improves the dependency ratio, it neverthelessburdens the welfare state. Recent studies by Smith and Edmonston(1977), and Sinn et al. (2003) comprehensively estimate thefiscal burden that low-skill migration imposes on the fiscalsystem. However an important message of this paper is that inan infinite-horizon set-up, one cannot fully grasp the implicationsof migration for the welfare state, just by looking at the netfiscal burden that migrants impose on the fiscal system. Inan infinite-horizon, overlapping generations economy, this netburden, could change to net gain to the native born population.(JEL F22, H3, J10)     

Hollander, de Vivo and the 'further evidence' for the corn model interpretation of Ricardo: a conspiracy of silence?

This paper reconsiders the debate between de Vivo and Hollanderover the ‘further evidence’ in favour of Sraffa's‘corn model’ interpretation of Ricardo in the lightof Torrens's Letter to Lord Liverpool (1816). It is argued thatthe Letter provides unique evidence of the influence on Torrensof Ricardo's Essay on Profits (1815); and that, contrary tode Vivo, the evidence is not that of a ‘corn model’influence. It is further argued that the manner in which theLetter has been dealt with is unsatisfactory. The shortcomingsin Hollander's position are traced to peculiarities in his long-standinginterpretation of the early Ricardo.     

Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment

Documenting the long term impact of structural policies on economic performance has generated tremendous interest in the development literature. In contrast, contemporary effects of structural policies are difficult to establish. Structural policies seldom change sufficiently in the short run, and accepted instruments to control for endogeneity in cross sections are inappropriate for time series analysis. In this paper we utilize an eleven year panel of 26 transition countries to identify short term effects of structural policies that are large and significant. A ten percent change in the quality of structural policies (or the Rule of Law) towards OECD standards is shown to raise annual growth by about 2.5%. To control for endogeneity, we develop an instrument using the hierarchy of institutions hypothesis and find that it holds a robust explanatory power. We also document that early reformers reap the greatest benefits, but that it is never too late to begin structural policy reforms.     

Export Sector Dynamics and Domestic Growth: The Case of Colombia

Analyses of Colombian data have generally failed to confirm the hypothesis of export-led growth. This paper generates several measures of export diversification and structural change in exports, and argues that these measures are useful in assessing growth externalities generated by the export sector. In a simultaneous-equations framework, increases in the rate of export structural change are associated with accelerated Colombian GDP growth. Export diversification, by contrast, is not a source of economic growth, and the reduced-form relationship between aggregate lagged export growth and GDP growth is weak.     

Political Participation of Mobile Citizens and the Size of the Welfare State

This paper deals with the implications of personal mobilityfor political participation of citizens and for the resultingsize of the welfare state. We show that mobility of citizensmay influence the individual decision to participate in thepolitical process and thereby may change policy outcomes. Ifcitizens who prefer a larger public sector are relatively immobile,the size of the welfare state may increase with mobility. (JELD72, J61)     

Income Inequality in OECD Countries: Data and Explanations

There is much disagreement about both the facts and the explanationsof income inequality. Even if we confine attention to OECD countries,we find people arguing that there has been a great U-turn, withinequality rising sharply after its post war fall, and otherswho believe that the speed of change is glacial. In order toevaluate the historical record, we need data for a long runof years. The present paper reviews evidence about coveringthe period 1945–2001 for nine OECD countries. It is widelybelieved that rising inequality is attributable to technologicalchange and to globalisation. The second part of the paper arguesthat these are only part of a complex story. Household incomesdepend on public policy and on sources of income apart fromwork. What is happening at the top of the distribution may needto be explained quite differently. (JEL H0, E6)     

On Sraffa's Standard commodity

The necessity of expressing the relative price of a commodityin terms of another commodity makes it impossible to distinguishthat part of any change that can be ascribed to the characteristicsof the commodity itself from the part of that change that isto be ascribed to the characteristics of the commodity of reference,i.e., the numéraire. Ricardo (1817) was the first topoint out this problem and the need to find an ‘invariablemeasure of value’, but he was not able to solve the problem.In 1960, Sraffa suggested using a bundle of commodities, thathe called ‘Standard commodity’, to accomplish thisfunction, claiming that it was a standard of value invariantwith respect to changes in the distribution of income. But inSraffa's book there is no explicit proof of this claim. Thisgave rise to many misunderstandings about the Standard commodityand its role as invariable measure of value. This paper proposesa proper definition of an ‘invariable measure of value’,and then proves that the Sraffa ‘Standard commodity’does fulfil the requirements of this definition.     

Principles of Policymaking in the European Union: An Economic Perspective

How should tasks be divided between the EU and its member states?And what institutional reforms are needed? This paper arguesthat the single market remains to be better enforced, and thismight require further centralisation of tasks. On the otherhand, EU meddling with redistribution should be scaled back;this would imply reducing EU intervention in agricultural policy,structural funds and the social charter. EU tasks should insteadbe expanded outside the first pillar, namely in foreign anddefence policies, internal security, immigration. The paperends by discussing what institutional reforms are needed toaccompany this allocation of tasks. (JEL F02, F3)     

Costly structural change and optimal growth

Summary This paper studies the optimal growth of a developing economy that has a choice to expend a fixed amount of resource for a structural change that advances its production technology. It is shown that structural change is undertaken if capital stock is above a critical level. Economies undertaking structural change converge to a larger steady state and economies not undertaking structural change converge to a smaller steady state. The optimal policy correspondences and growth paths are characterized. The social optimum is shown implementable by a competitive equilibrium with lump-sum taxation.We are grateful to Francis Cheung, Carmen Menezes, Peter Mueser, Don Schilling, two anonymous referees and an associate editor for their valuable suggestions.     

Poor Results and Poorer Policy: A Comparative Analysis of Estimates of Global Inequality and Poverty

This paper examines the data and methods used to estimate worldinequality and world poverty since 1950. It was found that regardlessof method used, world inequality reversed a more than a centuryold trend during the globalization period, loosely defined asthe post 1980 years. Consumption growth of the poor also acceleratedduring globalization, and such growth was in excess of thatof the average person. Poverty declined at close to 1.5 percentagepoints a year, a statistic not affected much by use of differentPPP data, or use of different methods, including the methodadopted by the official "keeper" of world poverty statistics,the World Bank. Indeed, a striking result obtained is that worldpoverty, according to the World Bank method, data, and definitions,was close to 15 percent in 2002, a level that is meant to bethe millennium development goal target for 2015. (JEL O15, O20,O47,O5)     

Marx's Theory of Ground Rent: A Critical Assessment

This critical essay provides the reader with an up-to-date assessmentof Marx's relatively neglected theory of absolute ground rentby bringing together in a coherent manner his scattered observationsand arguments contained primarily in Capital, Vol. III and Theoriesof Surplus Value, Vol. II. It also reviews the extant secondaryliterature which suggests that within Marx's theory of rentis an embryonic theory of monopoly from which scholars can drawimportant insights into the history of economic thought andthe workings of mature capitalism. The paper is organized asfollows. After an introductory section, Section II providesthe reader with an overview of Marx's theory of differentialrent and compares it to that of Ricardo, particularly Marx'sdiscussion of differential rent II and whether nature is productiveof exchange value. Section III discusses Marx's theory of absoluterent in light of recent criticisms by prominent scholars andsuggests that what determines whether rent is paid on the marginalland is not technical backwardness or lower productivity oflabor per se, but a social relation, viz., the monopoly createdby the private ownership of land. The last section summarizesthe main arguments and suggests some avenues for future research.     

The Dahrendorf hypothesis and its implications for (the theory of) economic policy-making

The sociologist R. Dahrendorf has recently suggested that thereis no and there ought to be no convergence of economic policiestowards some common ideal model. On the contrary, he statesthat ‘diversity is [...] at the very heart of a worldthat has abandoned the need for closed, encompassing systems’.It is shown in this paper that the Dahrendorf hypothesis isdifficult to reconcile with orthodox economic approaches toeconomic policy-making. A perspective on policy-making thatintroduces either fundamental uncertainty or endogenous policypreferences or both is, however, shown to be consistent withthe Dahrendorf hypothesis.     

Regulation or Markets? The Case of Employment Contracts

Regulation of the employment contract is both wide spread anddiverse. The diversity of regulation is surprising because itsuggests that there is little consensus regarding optimal interventioninto the labor market. This paper discusses several economicreasons why it may be efficient for employers and employeesto enter into long term contracts that make employee dismissalexpensive. This analysis suggests that employment contractscan be expected to be complex in practice, and hence can beviewed as part of the technology of exchange. Given that knowledgeof a technology requires skill and know-how, one cannot expectall employee-employer matches to discover and use the most efficientcontract terms possible. It is suggested that the regulationof the employment relationship might be improved with the creationof a market for contracts, similar to the one that currentlyexists in the United States for construction projects.(JEL J300,J410, K310)     

Institutions for Fiscal Stability

This paper reviews the controversy over Europe's Stability andGrowth Pact and offers a proposal for its reform. It arguesthat Europe would be best served by focusing on the fundamentalcauses of unsustainable debts — public enterprises thatare too big to fail, unfunded public pension schemes that aretoo big to ignore, inefficient and costly labor market and socialwelfare problems, and budget making institutions that createcommon pool and free-rider problems — rather than on arbitrarynumerical indicators like whether the budget deficit is aboveor below 3 percent of GDP. It proposes defining an index ofinstitutional reform with, say, a point each for reform of budgetmaking arrangements, reform of public pension schemes, and reformof labor markets and unemployment insurance. Countries receivingthree points would be exempt from the Pact's numerical guidelines,since there is no reason to think that they will be prone tochronic deficits. The others, whose weak institutions renderthem susceptible to chronic deficits, would in contrast stillbe subject to its warnings, sanctions and fines.(JEL E0, F4)     

中国城镇住房制度改革四十年*

城镇住房供给侧结构性变迁的客观原因是社会经济条件的变化，主观原因是住房供给的理念变迁；住房理念变迁引致住房制度变迁，住房制度变迁引致住房金融变迁，住房制度变迁和住房金融变迁引致住房民生改善的变迁，住房制度变迁、住房金融变迁、住房民生改善变迁正是关于中国住房供给侧结构性变迁的核心内容。 因此，基于现代经济学的住房供给一般原理和历史经验，本文阐述了改革开放40年中国特色社会主义城镇住房供给制度的历史演进、金融支持、民生改善，总结了改革开放40年中国住房供给侧结构变迁带来的相关成就，最后以上海市为例阐述了新时代中国特色社会主义城镇住房供给侧结构性改革的思路。