"科学地"迷信和迷信的科学

由于每个人不能都要亲自证明所有的科学原理再去相信,所以,在绝大多数情况下,我们只能"接受"知识,而这里暗含的逻辑是:该知识已经被"专家"证明了是正确的.     

Equilibrium in a Market Game

This paper studies the equilibrium of an exchange economy with the same number of agents and commodities. It is shown that under rather mild conditions on demand the market have a price equilibrium—independently of the divisibility of the commodities. The result extends Gale’s equilibrium theorem for indivisible commodities to the case where some commodities are perfectly divisible. The proof is based on a topological lemma contained in previous paper of one of the authors.     

住房金融的初级市场与次级市场

以住房抵押贷款为主体的住房金融初级市场的发展是住房消费的基础,并能促进经济平稳运行。我国的住房金融初级市场起步晚、发展快,存在品种少、数量少的特征,并面临资金短缺、流动性降低、长期信贷管理难度加大等一系列问题。文章认为住房金融次级市场是克服住房金融初级市场存在和面临问题的根本途径。但由于住房次级市场的发展对经济环境与法律环境的要求较高,应采取探索和促进的战略。     

A Model of the Australian Housing Market

We build an empirical model of the Australian housing market that quantifies interrelationships between construction, vacancies, rents and prices. We find that low interest rates (partly reflecting lower world long-term rates) explain much of the rapid growth in housing prices and construction over the past few years. Another demand factor, high immigration, also helps explain the tight housing market and rapid growth in rents in the late 2000s. A large part of the effect of interest rates on dwelling investment, and hence GDP, works through housing prices.     

Relating International Trade to the Housing Market

Studies of tariffs have tended to ignore their impact on housing markets. This paper builds a simple dynamic general-equilibrium model to bridge the gap. The model is consistent with empirical findings that housing prices in several small open economies, and the price of nontradeables relative to tradeables, have increased over time. The model also allows closed-form solutions of the elasticity of the economic growth rate, the housing-stock growth rate, and the housing-price growth rate, with respect to the tariff rate. Other testable implications are generated.     

市场均衡曲线和市场均衡弹性

本文根据普通的市场供求曲线和供求弹性,提出两个新的概念,即市场的均衡曲线和均衡弹性.作者讨论了这两个概念的一些主要特点,并把它们运用于分析较长时期中的市场或行业的动态发展.     

Housing Market Fluctuations and the Implicit Price of Water Quality: Empirical Evidence from a South Florida Housing Market

In this study we utilize a hedonic property price analysis to examine changes in the implicit price of water quality given housing market fluctuations over time. We analyze Martin County, Florida waterfront home sales from 2001 to 2010 accounting for the associated significant real estate fluctuations in this area through flexible econometric controls in space and time. We apply a segmented regression methodology to identify housing market price instability over time, interact water quality with these identified market segmentations, and embed these interactions within a spatial fixed effect model to further account for any spatial heterogeneity in the waterfront market. Results indicate that water quality improvement is associated with higher property values. We find no evidence that the economic downturn crowded out concern for the water quality in this area. We further impute an implicit prices of $2614, evaluated at the sample mean, for 1 % point increase in the water quality grade.     

Supply Elasticity Estimates for the Sydney Housing Market

This article presents estimates of the supply elasticity for residential property in metropolitan Sydney over the period 1991–2006. Our results suggest that supply is inelastic—less than unity—for all types of housing, although the supply elasticity is relatively larger for strata properties (apartments and flats) than for non‐strata properties (separate and semi‐detached houses, terraces and townhouses). We also find evidence of a significant fall in supply elasticity between 1991–1996 and 2001–2006. When the median time taken by a local council to decide on a development application is included in the supply curve, it is found to have a negative effect on the supply of residential property. However, split‐sample estimates indicate this effect is largely confined to the 1991–1996 period.     

均势市场:中国市场经济发展的必然趋势

市场作为商品交换的方式，其基本功能就是要实现商品的等价交换。探索中国市场的走向，就是要探索中国市场如何由目前的非均衡状态转化为均衡状态。回顾改革开放以来中国市场的发展历程，分析中国市场目前存在的主要问题及其成因，可探测出由卖方市场向均势市场转化并最终实现均势市场的趋势。     

住房市场波动与宏观经济政策的有效性

本文建立了一个多部门随机动态一般均衡模型,分析住房市场波动与宏观经济运行的关系,并重点探讨商品生产部门投资效率下降的背景下,不同宏观经济政策及组合的有效性。结果表明,住房市场杠杆率上升,会放大住房部门波动,影响宏观经济稳定。当扰动来自于商品生产部门投资效率变动时,住房市场波动呈逆周期变化,需求管理可稳定产出,但会助长房价或挤出私人投资;结构性的减税降费措施可有效稳定产出,缓解住房市场波动;宏观审慎管理能有效平抑房价,但会加大产出波动。在难以精准识别减税降费力度时,货币政策、宏观审慎和减税降费等结构性措施构成的次优政策组合可以较好地兼顾稳增长、控房价和调结构,并提高社会福利。     

Housing Market and Current Account Imbalances in the International Economy

This paper presents a two‐sector, two‐country model showing that inflation in the housing market, a low personal savings rate, and a construction investment boom can contribute to a large current account deficit. In the model, demand by a group of households in the domestic country is constrained by the availability of collateral. This implies more procyclical debt capacity because constrained households can borrow against the increase in the value of their houses during an expansion. A higher degree of financial liberalization and development helps constrained households reach higher loan‐to‐value ratios, thus relaxing their borrowing constraints. The resulting higher net worth and lower need for savings imply a worsening current account.     

略论文化市场均衡中的第三方力量

主要考察文化市场均衡问题。回顾了国内外文化市场研究的现状,明确了文化市场中的第三方概念,讨论了文化市场中供给、需求和由它们形成的文化市场均衡类型,分析了第三方对于文化市场所产生的影响,并提出了繁荣文化市场的若干建议。     

Market, Trade and Welfare in General Equilibrium

This paper develops a tractable general equilibrium model of an economy with an arbitrary number of industries under increasing returns to scale and imperfect competition. The market structure of the model economy is expressed by two basic sets of parameters: the degree of competition, and the markup ratio prevailing in each industry. The government is supposed to control the degree of competition through antitrust policy and the markup ratio through entry policy. Using this model, I re-examine the results of traditional competitive equilibrium analysis and explore the effects of competition policies on economic welfare and international trade.
JEL Classification Numbers: D43, D50, F11, F12, L13, L41.     

Information Shocks and the Dynamics of the Housing Market*

In this paper, we analyze housing‐market reactions to the release of previously unpublished information on school quality. Using high‐quality housing data, which precisely bracket the timing of the information shock, we investigate housing‐price dynamics within school‐catchment areas. We find a robust short‐term housing‐market reaction to the publication of school‐quality indicators, suggesting that this information was new to the households, and that households are willing to pay for better schools. The publication effect does not seem to be permanent as prices revert to pre‐publication levels after two to three months.     

房地产市场调控措施失灵探析

由于受到房价上涨势头过快、投机之风盛行、行业不规范等因素影响,房地产行业也成为众多社会矛盾汇聚的焦点。尽管中央政府不断地向房地产领域施加调控措施和手段,但绝大多数调控政策措施收效甚微,甚至适得其反。文章从房地产产业特征及地方政府利益取向角度,对房价失控原因与实现房地产业稳定持续发展进行分析研究。     

公积金制度对上海住房市场发展的影响研究

为研究住房公积金制度在上海住房市场发展过程中的作用,笔者通过运用状态空间模型与卡尔曼滤波解法的实证分析认为,住房公积金制度对上海市住房市场的量价都有很大的影响。在有力提高了居民住房消费能力的同时,也是助推房价泡沫化的一个重要因素,这种助推力主要源于政府拆迁。因此目前的房地产调控政策应该进行微调,以充分发挥公积金制度的积极作用和抑制其不利影响,进一步完善我国的住房保障体系。     

房市何时才能走出低谷

一、我国房地产销售市场疲弱的成因近几年，我国房地产业的开发投资规模一直保持较高速度。２００２年前６月，全国房地产业开发投资完成额达２８２１．３亿元，同比增长３２．９％。然而，与开发投资快速增长的情况不同，房地产销售市场却表现不如人意：一方面，大量住房困难户、特困户望房兴叹；另一方面，大量城市新建住宅却无人问津。据专家估计，目前我国商品房空置面积达到１．２亿平方米，房地产市场需求疲弱。之所以形成这种“有房没人住，有人没住房”的局面，原因在于：１．供给结构严重失衡。２０世纪９０年代房地产过热时期，高…     

Residential Mobility, Housing Equity and the Labour Market

UK commentators have noted that the UK housing market may hinder labour market flexibility. The present paper uses UK household longitudinal data (BHPS) for the early 1990s, and estimates single and competing risk discrete time duration models of residence duration to investigate the impact of negative housing equity on residential moves. Strong evidence for an adverse impact on mobility is found, along with results to suggest that the home-owners do not move in response to changing labour market conditions. Negative equity in the early 1990s therefore exacerbated housing market related rigidities in the job matching process