International trade performance and concentration in British industry

This paper reports the results of a cross-sectional analysis for 97 industries at the Minimum List Heading level, of their international trading performance 1970–77 and the influence of industrial structure on this. It is shown that, on average, import penetration increased faster than the export ratio for the industries analysed. Investigation of the relationship between industrial concentration and international trade suggest that in the majority of the analyses, especially where the relation between prior concentration change and subsequent with a performance was concerned, higher or increasing levels of concentration were associated with a weaker international trade performance. On the basis of this it is argued that more attention needs to be paid to international trade as a performance rather than merely a structural phenomenon in industry, the reasons for the relatively disappointing performance need to be investigated in more detail, the risk of a decline in internaional trade performance needs to be taken into account in formulating competition policy, especially with respect to mergers and the investigation of dominant firms.     

Liberalization Agreements in the GATT/WTO and the Terms‐of‐trade Externality Theory: Evidence from Three Developing Countries

The terms‐of‐trade theory suggests that governments engage in trade negotiations with their trade partners in an effort to escape from a terms‐of‐trade prisoner's dilemma by mutually internalizing externalities that they impose on each other. In this paper, I use predictions of the terms‐of‐trade relationship to provide support for the theory based on the negotiating patterns of three developing countries during the Uruguay Round of the Generalized Agreements on Tariff and Trade. I use industry level import value as well as tariff schedules from these contracting party states that were graduated from the US Generalized System of Preferences list during the Uruguay Round. I exploit the rapid change in their tariff schedules from the best response to the optimal level within a single negotiation round to empirically test the terms‐of‐trade theory. I find that my estimates are consistent with the predictions of the theory as applied to these three developing countries that were compelled to negotiate for tariff concessions during the Uruguay Round.     

Domestic trade protection in vertically-related markets

We consider trade policy in a setting where home country firms are fully dependent on vertically-integrated foreign firms for supplies of a key input. We find that vertically-integrated firms' strategic considerations play an important role and that, in particular, a tariff on final goods may either increase or decrease the domestic price of final goods. The import of final goods is always taxed to extract and shift rents from foreign firms, while the import of intermediate goods can be either taxed or subsidized. The market structure is shown to be an important consideration when making trade policy.     

Market entry and trade weighted import costs

Trade weighting is a common method of aggregating trade frictions. It will understate changes in these costs when there are non‐ad valorem trade costs and quality differences. Newly traded goods enter at higher trade costs than previously traded ones. Lower import costs shift trade to low‐quality goods with higher measured trade costs. These effects are quantitatively important. U.S. import costs fall more than twice as fast as trade weighted measures from 1974 to 2004 after the impact of shifting quality and newly traded goods is accounted for. Empirical estimates that use trade weighting will underestimate the welfare impact of trade costs.     

Conditional versus unconditional trade concessions for developing countries

Abstract We examine how trade liberalization by a large trading partner affects the ability of a small country’s government to sustain free trade through a reputational mechanism. Unconditional liberalization by the large trading partner has an ambiguous effect on the small country’s dynamic incentives. Liberalization through a reciprocal trade agreement, in which the large country lowers its tariffs conditionally on the small country doing the same, unambiguously dominates unconditional liberalization by the large country as a way of boosting trade reforms and reinforcing policy credibility in the small country. However, if capacity in the import‐competing sector can be reduced only gradually, a conditional, reciprocal agreement may require an asynchronous exchange of concessions, where the large country liberalizes before the small country does.     

The import price index with trade barriers: theory and evidence

The standard economic import price index hinges on an assumption of free trade. Applying the index to situations with barriers to trade yields biased results compared to a true import price index. To circumvent this problem, it is common to use average prices, such as unit values, as an aggregator function. However, the use of average prices is not rooted in economic theory. In this paper, I generalise the economic import price index to allow for barriers to trade in the form of quantity constraints. To illustrate the theoretical framework, I use the case of imports of textiles to Norway from 1988 to 1997. I find that a standard economic import price index, such as the Laspeyres index, grossly overstates import costs and that this bias is significantly reduced by using unit values.     

Estimating the impact of country‐level policy restrictions on services trade

Standard techniques used to estimate gravity equations, rely on bilateral variation to identify the effect of trade barriers on bilateral trade flows. In this paper, I develop a method that estimates the effects of country‐level variables on trade between countries in the presence of firm heterogeneity and country selection into trade, a natural extension of existing empirical models of international trade. I implement the method in services data, where available measures of trade policy provide information on the average level of regulations restricting entry into a country. The results suggest that policy barriers are important determinants of services trade flows.     

Effects of trade liberalization on domestic prices: Some evidence from Tunisian manufacturing

This paper presents estimates of the competitive effects of trade liberalization on domestic pricing behaviour of Tunisian manufacturing industries. The theoretical framework is based on a dynamic flexible adjustment model of price determination in a small open economy. It investigates the process of adjustment in price level toward a desired level. The adjustment process is both industrial and time-specific. The empirical results show that, in the long run, domestic price responds greatly to import penetration, followed by demand pressure. There was a negative effect from import competition on domestic price. Trade policy is a viable policy option to promote competitiveness. (JEL: C33, E31, F14, L60)     

The effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on industry trade between Canada and Mexico

Since studies of North American trade flows tend to focus on the United States as the main trading partner, trade between Canada and Mexico has received relatively little attention. Here, we examine bilateral trade flows for 62 Canadian export industries to Mexico and 45 import industries from Mexico to assess the effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on these individual trade flows. We find that Mexico’s largest export industries respond to depreciation more than Canada’s largest export industries do. Both countries’ trade flows are influenced even more by trade integration. Since there is evidence of strong intra-industry trade between these two countries, we can attribute this effect to the exploitation of economies of scale.     

Environmental regulation and trade pattern：a case of China

As a growing number of countries, including both developed and developing countries, have in recent yearstaken environmental regulation at different levels, a question of great concern has been raised： can the regulation alterthe existing trade volume and trade pattern, and ultimately drive pollution-intensive industries to countries with low-levelregulations or even those without regulations at all？ Starting from the three different propositions concerning therelationship between environmental regulation and trade pattern, this paper applies cointegration analysis and errorcorrection model to empirically testing the relationship between environmental regulation and trade in China during theperiod of 1985-2005. Our empirical results indicate that in the short run the collection of pollution discharge fees bearsa positive impact on the export share of clean products of total exports. Thus, higher pollution discharge fees raise theratio of clean products exports to total exports. This further indicates that more stringent environmental regulationpromotes the exports of clean products. In the long run pollution discharge fees are positively correlated with the exportshare of clean products but negatively associated with their import share. Such correlations imply that environmentalregulation tends to facilitate the international specialization in line with comparative advantages.     

Does trade stimulate product quality upgrading?

This paper investigates whether increased import competition leads firms to engage in incremental innovation reflected in product quality upgrading using Chilean manufacturing firm‐product data and measuring product quality with unit values (prices). We identify causal effects of import competition using an effective trade barrier measure – transport costs – as instruments for import penetration ratios across industries. Transport costs have a negative and significant effect on product quality. The evidence suggests that estimated unit value increases capture product quality upgrading, imports’ competition effects drive quality upgrading, and benefits depend on firms’ industrial specialization. Easier access to intermediate inputs also fosters quality upgrading.     

Exporters and the environment

This paper documents a relationship between international trade and environmental performance at the plant level. Using a panel of establishment‐level data from 1990–2006, I estimate the relationship between export orientation, import competition and pollution emissions. I find a robust relationship between international trade and pollution levels. Exporters emit 9% to 13% less after controlling for output, but there is significant heterogeneity across industries. Import competition is associated with the exit of the smallest, most pollution‐intensive plants. There is no evidence that this result is caused by polluting firms relocating to countries with low levels of environmental regulation and importing back into the US.     

Trade Policy and Productivity Growth in OECD Manufacturing *

Trade liberalization may promote economic growth in a number of ways, including by accelerating the rate of technological change. Firms that face more intense import competition may be spurred to greater rates of innovation; firms which export may absorb new technologies through their contact with international markets. This paper examines evidence on trade policy and productivity growth for a sample of thirteen OECD countries and including eighteen manufacturing sectors, using data primarily from the 1980s. Within individual sectors, there are strong productivity convergence effects within the OECD. After controlling for convergence, we find a positive association between high rates of productivity growth and low tariffs, and between high productivity growth and strong export performance. We found no particular association between high productivity growth and import penetration. The results are consistent with the possibility of positive linkages between trade liberalization and accelerated productivity growth. [F1, O4]     

The effect of the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement on Canadian multilateral trade liberalization

In this paper show that the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) tariff preferences have triggered a decline in Canadian external tariffs, explaining a two percentage point reduction in the average tariff between 1989 and 1998. Next, we found that industries that generate the least export rent to the US firms experienced deeper tariff cuts in Canada; this result provides evidence of cooperation in trade policies between the US and Canada. Finally, we estimate the effect of the CUSFTA on the intensity of industrial lobbying for trade policy in Canada and find no relationship between preferential trade liberalization and lobbying activity.     

Two Tales on the Returns to Education: The Impact of Trade on Wages

This paper uses micro data from the Current Population Survey combined with data from the US International Trade Commission and Bureau of Economic Analysis to evaluate the impacts of international trade (import penetration and export intensiveness) on wages with a special focus on the returns to education. Consistent with the literature, our empirical analysis provides evidence that the wage rates of similarly skilled workers differ across net‐exporting, net‐importing, and nontradable industries. Our results add to the literature by showing that the wage gap usually found across importing and exporting industries vanishes for highly skilled workers (workers with college degree and beyond) when we control for the cross‐effect between international trade and education, but the wage gap due to international trade still persists for low‐skilled workers. This finding supports the view that education serves as an equalizer and counterbalances the adverse impact from import penetration on wages of highly skilled workers.     

Endogenous Trade Policies in a Developing Economy

This paper examines the formation of trade policy for a small open developing economy where lobbying activities may be carried out to influence policy‐making decisions. The paper presents a three‐sector economy in which the manufacturing sector can lobby policymakers for favorable policies. Under some plausible conditions, it is demonstrated that lobbying activities carried out by the owners of the specific factor in the manufacturing sector would secure a protectionist trade policy through either an import tariff or an export subsidy. The government also imposes a consumption tax on agricultural products, which further strengthens the protectionist measure applied to the manufacturing sector. In general equilibrium, there will be a movement of labor to the manufacturing sector, an output expansion in the manufacturing sector, and an output contraction in the agricultural sector, exactly as suggested by factual evidence.     

Second-best trade policies in Cournot oligopoly

In this paper we study the optimal import policy in an oligopolistic market with a given number of quantity-setting firms. In the absence of fixed costs, we show that if the policy instrument is an import quota, the optimal policy is either free trade or autarky, while if the instrument is a tariff the optimal policy is neither free trade nor autarky. In the case of fixed costs, we show that contrary to the traditional protectionist argument, a restrictive import policy might increase domestic welfare by increasing domestic consumers' surplus, instead of increasing domestic profits.     

Tax-motivated transfer pricing and US intrafirm trade prices

This paper analyzes monthly data on US international trade prices between 1997 and 1999 in order to investigate the impact of tax influences on intrafirm trade prices. Results indicate that there is substantial evidence of tax-motivated transfer pricing in US intrafirm trade prices. There is a strong and statistically significant relationship between countries’ tax rates and the prices of intrafirm transactions. Controlling for other variables that affect trade prices, as country tax rates are lower, US intrafirm export prices are lower, and US intrafirm import prices are higher. This finding is consistent with theoretical predictions regarding tax-motivated income shifting behavior.     

Policy and performance in customs: Evaluating the trade facilitation agreement

This paper links cross‐country variation in trade facilitation policies to prominent indicators of national customs and logistics performance. We test the hypotheses that the policy data explain variation in the performance indicators, independent of other country characteristics that are plausibly exogenous to changes in trade facilitation policies. We use a LASSO procedure to choose among the many potential explanatory variables in the model. In general we find that country characteristics related to geography, income, and the general quality of governance better explain cross‐country variation in customs and logistics performance than do the measures of trade facilitation policy.     

Tariff liberalization and trade specialization: Lessons from India

This paper analyzes the effects of policy reform on the structure of India’s trade in manufactures, from 1990 to 2006. It computes comparative advantage indicators on the basis of disaggregated trade flow data and assesses the effects of trade liberalization on the evolution of India’s pattern of trade specialization. Industries where import tariffs have been reduced the most have experienced the highest increase in specialization. Moreover, trade liberalization has helped India improve its comparative advantage in industries with medium- to high-technology content, as well as in some of the industries enjoying the most robust growth in global demand. Liberalization policies have been instrumental in enhancing the international competitiveness of industries.