What causes violent crime?

This study uses panel data of intentional homicide and robbery rates for a sample of developed and developing countries for the period 1970-1994, based on information from the United Nations World Crime Surveys, to analyze the determinants of national crime rates both across countries and over time. A simple model of the incentives to commit crimes is proposed, which explicitly considers possible causes of the persistence of crime over time (criminal inertia). A panel-data based GMM methodology is used to estimate a dynamic model of national crime rates. This estimator controls for unobserved country-specific effects, the joint endogeneity of some of the explanatory variables, and the existence of some types of measurement errors afflicting the crime data. The results show that increases in income inequality raise crime rates, crime tends to be counter-cyclical, and criminal inertia is significant.     

Job Security,Financial Security and Worker Well‐being: New Evidence on the Effects of Flexible Employment

This paper uses panel data drawn from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey to provide new evidence of the links between unemployment, wages, job security, financial security and workers' well‐being for workers in flexible employment. Our findings indicate that workers in flexible employment encounter more unemployment and experience increased job insecurity; unemployment is associated with wage penalties. Lower wages, job insecurity and financial insecurity affect well‐being. However, these negative outcomes are mitigated by longer job tenure. Our results have implications for moves towards a flexicurity model of employment     

Dynamic effects of trade openness on financial development

This paper employs the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach of Pesaran et al. (1999) to study the dynamic effects of trade openness on financial development. The advantage of the PMG estimator over other dynamic panel econometric techniques is that it allows short-run coefficients, speeds of adjustment and error variances to vary across countries, with cross-country homogeneity restrictions only on long-run parameters. Our results spanning 88 countries over 1960–2005 show that a positive long-run relationship between trade openness and financial development coexists with a negative short-run relationship. But when splitting the data into different income or inflation groups, this finding is observed only in relatively low-income countries or high-inflation economies.     

中国金融加速器效应的地区差异比较研究

文章基于427个上市公司1999-2009年面板数据,以负债资产比系数估值作为金融加速器效应大小的衡量指标,使用动态面板数据模型研究了中国金融加速器效应的地区差异性。结果表明,西部地区金融加速器效应最大,中部次之,东部最小;东部地区不存在金融加速器企业规模效应但存在金融加速器时期效应,中部地区恰好相反,西部地区金融加速器两种效应都显著存在。     

The Optimal Use of Fines and Imprisonment If Governments Do Not Maximize Welfare

We consider a stylized model of crime and punishment in which the prosecution policy is defined by three variables: the size of punishment, the type of punishment, and the detection probability. We derive the optimal type of punishment under the assumption that the detection probability is chosen by a government whose objective function places a higher weight on the government's budget than the social welfare function does. We show that for serious crimes exclusive imprisonment is welfare maximizing. If costs of imprisonment are taken into account, the optimal punishment is a prison term with an additional fine that is smaller or equal to the costs of the prison term. For less serious crimes, fines without imprisonment are welfare maximizing. Therefore, this paper demonstrates that the standard result of the literature that fines should be used whenever feasible need not hold in the presence of a rent‐seeking government. Moreover, it offers a new explanation for the widespread use of mandatory imprisonment for serious crimes.     

Misspecification in Dynamic Panel Data Models and Model‐Free Inferences

This paper discusses the issue of model misspecification and model‐free methods in dynamic panel data analysis. We primarily review existing results, but also provide several new results. When the dynamics are homogeneous, we show that several widely used estimators for panel first‐order autoregressive AR(1) models converge to first‐order autocorrelation, even under misspecification. Under heterogeneity, these estimators converge to the ratio of the means of the first‐order autocovariances and variances. We also discuss the estimation of autocovariances, the estimation of panel AR(∞) models, and the estimation of the distribution of the heterogeneous mean and autocovariances.     

Level and dynamics of financial depth: consequences for volatility of GDP

The existing literature documents positive but potentially non-linear relationship between financial depth measured as private credit to GDP ratio and volatility of GDP. In this paper, we extend the analysis by considering also the role of financial depth dynamics. We use dynamic spatial panel models to address the issue of cross-sectional dependence of errors obtained from the standard dynamic panel models. We confirm the non-linear impact of the financial depth level but also find that higher growth rates of financial depth are significantly associated with higher volatility of output. The role of the latter factor is considerably more important in terms of explained variance compared to the impact of the private credit level. These results are robust to changes in the sample range, specification of the model, and measurement of the key variables. We also document considerable differences between the estimates obtained from the standard GMM and the spatial models.     

Guns and crime revisited

I focus on the effect of changes in public security (policing) on private security measures that potential victims can take. In particular, I look at the tradeoff between different types of private security measures – such as using or carrying guns, carrying less cash or keeping less valuables at home, and using burglar alarms or Lojack – and study how this tradeoff is affected by changes in public security. If private householders’ direct security expenses are strongly substitutable with public policing (e.g., for guns which may be more useful in badly policed areas), an increase in policing results in a drop in these expenses; it also results in carrying or keeping less cash (an indirect security measure which reduces the prize a criminal can seize). If, however, householders’ direct security expenses are “complementary” to policing in the sense that they are more effective when police response is rapid (e.g., for burglar alarms), more policing increases these expenses unless the efficacy of joint (public and private) security expenses on combating crime encounters very sharply diminishing returns; moreover, a rise in policing also induces carrying or keeping more cash. An increase in penalties increases the tendency to keep cash on hand, and also reduces crime, provided that as private precautions increase, with policing constant, it takes a larger increment in security spending to compensate for a specific drop in penalties. The results are consistent with some empirical trends in crime rates, policing, penalties and private precautions.     

区域金融发展、财政支出与经济福利——基于省级动态面板数据的实证检验

笔者运用动态面板数据模型,基于21个省市的面板数据进行广义矩分析,考察区域金融发展及地方政府的财政支出与经济福利的关系.得到的结果是:区域金融发展对经济福利的影响较为微弱,财政支出有效地促进了区域内经济福利的提高,但是当地政府同时面临着“福利磁铁”的矛盾.在分省区研究中发现:不同的区域金融发展、财政支出对当地经济福利水平的影响具有较大的差异.     

Do oil consumption and economic growth intensify environmental degradation? Evidence from developing economies

The purpose of this article is to empirically investigate the impact of economic growth, oil consumption, financial development, industrialization and trade openness on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, particularly in relation to major oil-consuming developing economies. This study utilizes annual data from 1980 to 2012 on a panel of 18 developing countries. Our empirical analysis employs robust panel cointegration tests and a vector error correction model (VECM) framework. The empirical results of three panel cointegration models suggest that there is a significant long-run equilibrium relationship among economic growth, oil consumption, financial development, industrialization, trade openness and CO₂ emissions. Similarly, results from VECMs show that economic growth, oil consumption and industrialization have a short-run dynamic bidirectional feedback relationship with CO₂ emissions. Long-run (error-correction term) bidirectional causalities are found among CO₂ emissions, economic growth, oil consumption, financial development and trade openness. Our results confirm that economic growth and oil consumption have a significant impact on the CO₂ emissions in developing economies. Hence, the findings of this study have important policy implications for mitigating CO₂ emissions and offering sustainable economic development.     

The effects of gun control on crimes: a spatial interactive fixed effects approach

This paper examines the effect of right-to-carry laws on crimes. We relax the assumption that unobserved time effects have homogeneous impacts on states; therefore, states with right-to-carry laws may follow different time trends which might be stronger or weaker than those of other states including states with no right-to-carry laws. The heterogeneous time trends are modeled by a factor structure where time factors represent time-varying unobservables, and factor loadings account for their heterogeneous impacts across states. No assumption is imposed on the shape of the time trend. Crime statistics exhibit spatial dependence, and a state’s adoption of right-to-carry law may have external effects on its neighboring states. Using a dynamic spatial panel model with interactive effects, we find positive spatial spillovers in crime rates. Depending on a crime category, an average \(1\%\) reduction in crime rates in neighboring states can decrease crime rates by 0.069–0.287%, with property crimes exhibiting higher degrees of spatial dependence than violent crimes. We find that although the passage of right-to-carry laws has no significant effects on the overall violent or property crime rates, they lead to short-term increases in robbery and medium-term decreases in murder rates. The results are robust to the number of factors, a different sample ending point, and some alternative spatial weights matrices and model specifications.     

金融结构转型与收入分配优化*

本文阐释了金融结构(包括银行业结构)影响收入分配的理论机制，并运用动态面板模型和面板门槛模型分析了金融结构对收入分配的影响效应。研究表明：(1)金融制度功能的有效发挥依赖于金融资源在数量规模和结构层次上的匹配程度，金融要素之间根据市场主体的融资需求形成相互分工协作，在促进金融结构转型过程中实现收入分配优化；(2)在资本密集型产业优先发展的战略背景下，银行业结构对收入分配存在逐级递减的正向影响效应，大型商业银行市场融资份额占比过高将不利于优化收入分配；(3)在经济增长进程中，金融结构对收入分配存在倒“U”型影响效应，金融结构由“银行主导型”向“市场主导型”转变将有利于优化收入分配。     

中国地方土地财政收入增长影响因素实证研究——基于1995-2008年中国省际面板数据的分析

文章运用面板数据模型考察了中国省际土地财政收入①增长的影响因素,分别利用动态效应模型和阈值效应模型进行了估计,探究各因素在空间和时间发生变化时的影响规律。研究表明,各因素在不同时间、不同阈值效应下对土地财政收入的影响不尽相同:土地财政收入增长具有明显的路径依赖特征,前期的增长会形成惯性而影响后期的增长;一个地区财政压力较大、事权和财权不平衡程度加深、房价上涨会导致该地区土地财政收入增长,但随着经济发展和产业结构变化,这些影响又会有所不同。因此,财税体制改革需要充分考虑地区经济发展和产业结构的差异性,在不同发展程度的地区采用不同的措施。     

金融结构转型与收入分配优化*

本文阐释了金融结构(包括银行业结构)影响收入分配的理论机制，并运用动态面板模型和面板门槛模型分析了金融结构对收入分配的影响效应。研究表明：(1)金融制度功能的有效发挥依赖于金融资源在数量规模和结构层次上的匹配程度，金融要素之间根据市场主体的融资需求形成相互分工协作，在促进金融结构转型过程中实现收入分配优化；(2)在资本密集型产业优先发展的战略背景下，银行业结构对收入分配存在逐级递减的正向影响效应，大型商业银行市场融资份额占比过高将不利于优化收入分配；(3)在经济增长进程中，金融结构对收入分配存在倒“U”型影响效应，金融结构由“银行主导型”向“市场主导型”转变将有利于优化收入分配。     

金融发展与全要素生产率增长* ——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

本文以2000-2012年中国省际平衡面板数据为样本,从金融规模发展和金融效率发展两个维度衡量金融发展水平,实证检验金融发展与全要素生产率增长的联系以及中间渠道。研究结果发现,2000-2012年中国全要素生产率出现正增长且主要是由技术进步推动的;无论是从金融规模发展角度还是从金融效率发展角度去分析,都证实了金融发展显著地促进了全要素生产率的增长,金融效率发展的全要素生产率增长效应显著地高于金融发展规模的全要素生产率增长效应,且金融发展促进全要素生产率增长的中间渠道是技术进步效应而非技术效率增长效应;通过引入衡量金融发展缺陷程度指标（民间金融发展规模）,证实了中国金融发展体系效率低下。民间金融发展具有TFP增长效应,且民间金融发展TFP增长效应要显著地大于正规金融发展的TFP增长效应。     

EMPLOYMENT,DETERRENCE, AND CRIME IN A DYNAMIC MODEL*

Using maximum likelihood techniques and monthly panel data we solve and estimate an explicitly dynamic model of criminal behavior where current criminal activity impacts future labor market outcomes. We show that the threat of future adverse effects in the labor market when arrested acts as a strong deterrent to crime. Moreover, such forward‐looking behavior is estimated to be important. Hence, policies that weaken this deterrence will be much less effective in fighting crime. This suggests that prevention is more powerful than redemption since anticipated redemption allows criminals to look forward to negating the consequences of their crimes.     

Policy tolerance of economic crime? An empirical analysis of the effect of counterfeiting on Italian trade

Some governments seem ambivalent towards economic crime because, on the one hand, there are adverse effects on competition and legal businesses; on the other hand, there are benefits through (shadow) employment and income in less-developed areas, as well as benefits through relations of political clientage. We focus on counterfeiting and its economic effects on trade in Italy during the economic crisis. Using a newly built regional dataset and a dynamic panel model, we find evidence of the dual impact of counterfeiting. The production (and exchange) of fake goods depresses the legal market that relies on intellectual property rights but supports shadow-economic activities for the benefit of illegal workers, criminal organisations, and political clientele. We show that the negative effects outweigh the positive effects.     

Financial development and the shadow economy: A panel VAR analysis

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between financial development and the shadow economy using data for 161 countries over the period 1960–2009. Specifically, we use a panel vector autoregression model to construct impulse response functions that illustrate the time path of one variable (e.g., the shadow economy) following an orthogonal shock to another variable (e.g., financial development). We find that financial development reduces the size of the shadow economy. Moreover, there is some evidence of reverse causality between these variables; namely, a shock to shadow economy inhibits financial development.     

Do better institutions offset the adverse effect of a financial crisis on investment? Evidence from East Asia

We extend the neoclassical investment theory to capture the deviation of current institutional quality from its ideal level. We show that an improvement in institutions increases the speed of adjustment towards desired capital stock and the marginal product of capital and hence enhances the investment demand. Next, we apply our theoretical model to East Asia. Using Generalized Method of Moments, we estimate a dynamic panel data model to investigate the effect of alternate measures of institutional quality on investment dynamics in this region. Our findings underline the role of institutions as a deep determinant of investment. We also conclude that the East Asian countries with better institutional quality are less prone to the adverse effects of financial crises on their fixed capital formation. Our results are robust to the estimation methods and changes in institutional measures and hence might have important policy implication for policymakers and investors in East Asia.     

金融集聚对科技创新效率影响的双重特征分析

采用2005-2016年中国省际面板数据,运用面板门槛模型和空间杜宾模型,实证检验金融集聚对科技创新效率的作用关系是否存在门槛效应和空间效应。结果发现,区域内部金融集聚与科技创新效率间存在非线性关系,门槛效应显著,金融集聚对科技创新效率的支持作用存在阶段性差异;通过测定Moran's I指数值发现,金融集聚与科技创新效率在空间上具有协同变动趋势;政府科技支持、人力资本储备和对外开放度均可推动科技创新效率提升。