Demographic change,human capital accumulation and R&D‐based growth

Employing an overlapping generations model of R&D‐based growth with endogenous fertility and education decisions, we examine how demographic changes induced by an increase in life expectancy influence the long‐run growth rate of the economy. We demonstrate that life expectancy, when relatively low (high), positively (negatively) affects economic growth. This paper also compares the growth implications of child education subsidy policies (i.e., policies for enhancing basic education) and child rearing subsidy policies (i.e., pro‐natal policies) and demonstrate that while the child education subsidies consistently foster economic growth, child rearing subsidies may negatively affect economic growth.     

Search frictions, market power, and long-run growth

This paper embeds product market search in an Ak growth model to study the effects of search frictions on market structure, capital accumulation, and long-run growth. The basic hypothesis is that search frictions, in giving rise to market power, result in higher prices and lower output levels. The falling demand for capital stemming from firms cutting back output then lowers the interest rate, dampening capital accumulation and slowing down growth. A decline in search frictions sets the process in reverse, eventually speeding up growth through the change in market structure. In the meantime, the stock market values of firms could fall.     

Asset bubbles,banking stability and economic growth

This paper examines the relationships between the asset bubble and the banking stability from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. The theoretical analysis demonstrates that the moral hazard caused by the deposit insurance and limited liability might facilitate the banks to hold bubble assets for the purpose of risk premium. Meanwhile the supervisory intensity, leverage ratio and credit spread provide the conditions for banks to hold bubble assets through their effects on risk premium. Once the banks hold the bubble assets, their stability will deteriorate because of four types of effects, namely internal leverage, cash withdrawal, credit friction and network effects. This paper also utilizes the BMA-PVAR model to test the theoretical findings by employing the data from 26 representative economies for a period between 2000 and 2014. The empirical evidences are consistent with the theoretical findings that the equity bubbles will lower the banking stability. The empirical evidences also suggest that the banking instability will be detrimental to the economic growth.     

Animal spirits and optimal monetary policy design in the presence of labour market frictions

Using a New Keynesian DSGE model with labour market frictions, we compare outcomes for backward-looking animal spirits expectations with rational expectations after technology and demand shocks. For optimal monetary policy, major differences arise only for technology shocks, and discretionary policy performs better than commitment policy under animal spirits expectations. If Taylor rule parameters are chosen to best replicate optimal monetary policy outcomes, inflation targeting is only appropriate for technology shocks, particularly for large labour frictions, while targeting only economic activity is appropriate for demand shocks. Fault tolerance analysis shows high costs from failing to identify true animal spirits expectations and technology shocks.     

Search frictions and labor market participation

Cross-country differences in labor market participation are often larger than differences in unemployment rates. The same holds true across demographic groups within a given economy. We argue that the interaction between labor force participation decisions and labor market frictions can help us understand these patterns. This interaction highlights dynamic aspects of the participation decision, in contrast to standard textbook treatments that emphasize static costs and benefits of participation. We extend the standard labor market search problem to allow for a third state—non-participation—and assumes that stochastic participation costs precipitate flows into and out of non-participation. We fully characterize the worker's decision problem and use numerical simulations to demonstrate how participation patterns vary with individual characteristics and with labor market conditions.     

R&D‐induced Growth in the OECD?

The study uses aggregate and manufacturing sector data for a group of ten OECD countries for the period 1971 to 1995 to estimate a system of two equations implied by a model of R&D‐induced growth in steady state. These equations relate R&D intensity to productivity growth and the latter to output growth. The author finds evidence of a positive impact of aggregate R&D intensity on the growth rates of productivity and output. The null hypothesis that growth is not induced by R&D is rejected in favor of the Schumpeterian endogenous growth framework without scale effects. The R&D impact for the aggregate economy is distinctly larger than for the manufacturing sector. Finally, an extension of the empirical model shows that openness has a positive impact on productivity growth.     

Immigration and remittances in a two-country model of growth with labor market frictions

We present a North-South model with labor market frictions and labor migration to study the dynamic implications of workers mobility on employment, capital accumulation and welfare. In the baseline model, the Northern country is able to control immigration flows by setting a cap on the number of foreign workers. We find that, despite an increase in migration displaces native employment in the short-run, a permanent raise of the migration cap stimulates capital accumulation, improves labor market conditions and increases social welfare in the long run. In an extension of the model, we also test the long-run effects of a pro-employment protectionist policy consisting in imposing a distortionary tax on immigrant employment. We find that the protectionist policy in North, while increasing national welfare, damages the macroeconomic performance of the domestic economy and is not effective in improving native employment.     

Product diffusion and pricing with market frictions

Summary. We study pricing and product diffusion in a dynamic general equilibrium framework with product market frictions. Ongoing R&D activity leads, with an endogenously determined probability, to continual improvements in product quality. We characterize the steady-state equilibrium with endogenous product diffusion in which a number of different goods co-exist on the quality ladder. We show that the severity of the economy's market frictions is a crucial determinant of the pricing structure, the product diffusion pattern, the level of R&D investment, the rate of endogenous growth, the length of Schumpeterian product cycles and the possibility of multiple growth paths. Eliminating market frictions leads to a degenerate product ladder of precisely one step, containing only the most recent product, as in the monopolistic competition literature. Received: August 16, 1999; revised version: March 6, 2001     

Labor market frictions and the international propagation mechanism

The paper studies the role of labor market frictions in accounting for international business cycle comovement. To this aim, we embed labor market search and matching frictions in a two-country New Keynesian model. We show that labor market frictions amplify the international propagation of supply and demand shocks. In terms of cyclical properties then, they raise the cross-country output correlation. Adding labor market search in the New Keynesian model thus improves its ability to account for the business cycle comovement observed in G7 countries in the recent decades. Nominal wage rigidity substantially contributes to this result. Labor market institutions also play a role. Yet, their impact is not unequivocal depending on the institution considered. Business cycle synchronization is thus found to increase with the generosity of the unemployment benefits system, whereas it decreases with the strictness of employment protection.     

Offshoring, labour market institutions and the elasticity of labour demand

This paper analyses the evolution of the elasticity of labour demand and the possible role of offshoring therein using industry-level data for a large number of OECD countries. The first main finding is that the wage elasticity of labour demand has increased substantially since 1980, although some of this increase may reflect a trend increase in the speed of adjustment rather than an increase in the long-run wage elasticity. The evidence on the potential contribution of offshoring to raising labour demand elasticity is mixed. No association is found between increases in offshoring and demand elasticity during the second half of the 1990s, but there is a significant cross-sectional association between higher average offshoring intensity during this period and higher demand elasticity. We also find some evidence that strict employment protection legislation weakens the cross-sectional association between offshoring and higher labour demand elasticity, suggesting that the relationship between offshoring and the labour demand elasticity may depend on the national institutional environment.     

The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R&D‐based Models of Economic Growth*

Human capital accumulation is introduced in a growth model with R&D‐driven expansion in variety and quality of intermediate goods and knowledge spillovers from both research activities. Economic growth is no longer uniquely tied to population growth as previous growth models without scale effects suggest. The model predicts that economic growth depends positively on the rate of human capital accumulation and positively or negatively on population growth and is therefore supported by empirical evidence to a greater extent than previous models. In particular, long‐run growth is compatible with a stable population.     

Asset price bubbles in Arrow-Debreu and sequential equilibrium

Summary. Price bubbles in an Arrow-Debreu equilibrium in an infinite-time economy are a manifestation of lack of countable additivity of valuation of assets. In contrast, the known examples of price bubbles in a sequential equilibrium in infinite time cannot be attributed to the lack of countable additivity of valuation. In this paper we develop a theory of valuation of assets in sequential markets (with no uncertainty) and study the nature of price bubbles in light of this theory. We define a payoff pricing operator that maps a sequence of payoffs to the minimum cost of an asset holding strategy that generates it. We show that the payoff pricing functional is linear and countably additive on the set of positive payoffs if and only if there is no Ponzi scheme, provided that there is no restriction on long positions in the assets. In the known examples of equilibrium price bubbles in sequential markets valuation is linear and countably additive. The presence of a price bubble means that the dividends of an asset can be purchased in sequential markets at a cost lower than the asset's price. We present further examples of equilibrium price bubbles in which valuation is nonlinear, or linear but not countably additive.     

Asset price bubbles and crashes with near-zero-intelligence traders

Summary. We examine whether a simple agent-based model can generate asset price bubbles and crashes of the type observed in a series of laboratory asset market experiments beginning with the work of Smith, Suchanek and Williams (1988). We follow the methodology of Gode and Sunder (1993, 1997) and examine the outcomes that obtain when populations of zero-intelligence (ZI) budget constrained, artificial agents are placed in the various laboratory market environments that have given rise to price bubbles. We have to put more structure on the behavior of the ZI-agents in order to address features of the laboratory asset bubble environment. We show that our model of near-zero-intelligence traders, operating in the same double auction environments used in several different laboratory studies, generates asset price bubbles and crashes comparable to those observed in laboratory experiments and can also match other, more subtle features of the experimental data.Received: 15 July 2003, Revised: 28 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D83, D84, G12. Correspondence to: John DuffyWe would like to thank an Anonymous referee, Guillaume Frechette, David Laibson, Al Roth and participants in Harvard Experimental and Behavioral Economics Workshop for their comments, and Charles Noussair for providing his data set.     

Labour market institutions and labour market performance

This paper studies the relationship between labour market institutions and policies and labour market performance using a new and unique dataset that covers the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which in the last two decades experienced radical economic and institutional transformations. We document a clear trend towards liberalization of labour markets, especially in the countries of the former Soviet Union, but also substantial differences across the countries studied. Our econometric analysis implies that institutions matter for labour market outcomes, and that deregulation of labour markets improves their performance. The analysis also suggests several significant interactions between different institutions, which are in line with the idea of beneficial effects of reform complementarity and broad reform packages.     

Fiscal adjustments,labour market flexibility and unemployment

Using a panel of 17 countries for 1978–2009, we find that tax-driven consolidations increase unemployment by 0.25 percentage points. Labour market flexibility mitigates this: a one-point rise in the flexibility index reduces youth (long-term) unemployment by 0.6–0.7 (1.8–2.2) percentage points.     

Productivity and consumption home bias with goods market frictions

This paper analyzes the effect of productivity gains on the consumption home bias when goods market frictions are present in the form of time costs. We find that productivity gains may either improve or worsen the home bias, depending on the relative magnitude of the terms of trade, the domestic friction, and the international friction. Our results broaden the interpretation of home bias by providing unique theoretical insight into the role of the interaction between productivity innovations and goods market frictions.     

Globalization and labor market outcomes: Wage bargaining, search frictions, and firm heterogeneity

We introduce search unemployment into Melitz's trade model. Firms' monopoly power on product markets leads to strategic wage bargaining. Solving for the symmetric equilibrium we show that the selection effect of trade influences labor market outcomes. Trade liberalization lowers unemployment and raises real wages as long as it improves average productivity. We show that this condition is likely to be met by a reduction in variable trade costs or by entry of new trading countries. Calibrating the model shows that the long-run impact of trade openness on the rate of unemployment is negative and quantitatively significant.     

Crime and labour market turnover

We go beyond unemployment to investigate how its determinants, specifically hires, lay-offs and quits, affect crime. As expected, we find less crime in localities with higher hiring and quit rates and lower lay-off rates. The size of relationships is on the order of studies analysing the link between unemployment and crime.     

Incomplete interest rate pass-through under credit and labor market frictions

By introducing search and matching frictions in both the labor and the credit markets into a cash in advance New Keynesian DSGE model, we provide a novel explanation of the incomplete pass-through from policy rates to loan rates. We show that this phenomenon is ineradicable if banks possess some power in the bargaining over the loan rate of interest, if the cost of posting job vacancies is positive and if firms and banks sustain costs when searching for lines of credit and when posting credit vacancies, respectively. We also show that the presence of credit market frictions moderates the reactions of employment and wages to a monetary shock. Finally, we confirm the finding that pass-through incompleteness has limited short-term impacts on the transmission of monetary policy shocks to output and inflation.