Movie release strategy: Theory and evidence from international distribution

Choosing the right time to release a new movie may be the difference between success and failure. Prior research states that the “bigger” a blockbuster is, the more likely it is (and should be) released during a high‐demand week. We present a theoretical framework which is consistent with this observation but adds a rather surprising theoretical prediction: among non‐blockbuster (i.e., niche) movies, everything else constant, the greater a movie's appeal, the more likely it is released during a low‐demand week. In other words, the relation between movie appeal and high‐demand‐week release is U‐shaped: it decreases at low levels of overall appeal (niche movies) and increases at high levels of overall appeal (blockbusters). We provide intuition for this novel result and argue that it is robust to a number of changes in functional form assumptions. We then show that the theoretical results are consistent with the evidence from an extensive data set on international releases. Specifically, we run a series of movie‐country‐pair regressions with high‐demand‐week‐release as a dependent variable and exogenous shocks to the movie's appeal as an explanatory variable. As predicted by theory, the regression coefficients have opposite signs for the blockbuster and non‐blockbuster cases.     

Carbon Offset Provision with Guilt‐Ridden Consumers

Carbon offsets allow consumers to mitigate their guilt associated with their carbon footprint. On the one hand, when offsets are purchased in an industry unrelated to the consumption activity, offsets are complements to consumption and the introduction of an offset market causes consumption to rise. On the other hand, when offsets are purchased in a related industry, consumption and offsets are substitutes and consumption falls. In general, however, net emissions decline. We find two exceptions to this rule. First, when offsets are purchased in an unrelated market, if there is no latent demand for offsets in their absence, the introduction of offsets can potentially cause a rise in net emissions when producers of “dirty” consumption goods have market power. Second, when offsets are purchased to fund green energy, emissions can rise if “dirty” producers can engage in pre‐emptive strategic commitments and the price of offsets is chosen endogenously.     

Cofinancing to Manage Risk in the Motion Picture Industry

Cofinancing is a term used in the movie industry to describe films for which multiple firms share the cost of production and revenues. We find that one-third of movies produced by major studios between 1987 and 2000 are cofinanced. Anecdotal evidence strongly indicates that cofinancing is for the purpose of risk management. However, the major studios are publicly traded firms, which allows investors to make their own diversification decisions, leading us to question the importance of cofinancing for risk management. Contrary to industry claims, we find that cofinancing decisions are unrelated to the distribution of individual movie returns—studios do not appear to cofinance relatively risky films. But we do find that studios are more likely to cofinance movies that account for a large fraction of their total annual production budget, which reduces portfolio risk via the law of large numbers. Toward an alternative explanation for cofinancing, we also find that cofinancing between two major studios impacts the release dates of their other movies.     

Corporate social responsibility,durable‐goods and firm profitability

Utilizing a two‐period durable‐goods framework, we show that in uncommitted sales markets a firm may earn higher profits as it increases its level of corporate social responsibility (CSR). We find that this occurs even though CSR has no direct impact other than increasing the durable‐goods firm's manufacturing costs. We show that in sales markets, CSR may allow the firm to credibly commit itself to lower production in the future. This, in turn, can enhance their profits even though the CSR activities are costly and provide no direct demand or marketing benefit in our model. This is important because it provides another, hereto unexplored, strategic rationale for the willingness of profit‐maximizing firms to undertake costly CSR activities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sectoral Effects of News Shocks

This paper argues that an aggregate news shock reveals news about technological improvements in the durable goods sector. Better technological prospects translate into large responses of the fundamentals in the durable goods sector; much larger than the responses of the fundamentals in the non‐durable goods sector. These better technological prospects, contrary to common belief, do not induce short‐run comovement among fundamentals within either of the two sectors. The behaviour of inventories, an important margin that durable goods producers can use to buffer news shocks, proves to be crucial for reconciling the effects of news shocks in a two‐sector model with the data.     

Media market concentration and pluralism

We study the relationship between market concentration and market variety, and thereby focus on two dimensions of variety, namely on internal variety and on external variety. In our setup, firms can expand their internal variety continuously around their focus point on a Salop‐circle. External variety then refers to the market supply of variety offered by all firms on the circle. We believe that this setting is particularly applicable to media. It turns out that in more concentrated markets, there is an incentive to provide more internal variety in order to compete for consumers. Then, the relationship between market concentration and external variety turns out to be ambiguous. There also exists no clear free market bias with respect to socially optimal internal and external variety.     

Demand and supply estimation biases due to omission of durability

We build a dynamic equilibrium model of a durable goods oligopoly with a competitive secondary market to evaluate the bias in estimating the structural parameters of demand and supply when durability is omitted. We simulate data from our dynamic model and use them to estimate the model’s static counterpart. We find that the static estimate of the elasticity of demand is an overestimate of the true elasticity and that the static estimate of the markup is an underestimate. Our results provide a benchmark on the magnitude and sign of the bias when static models are used for economic inference.     

Taxes and Benefits: Two Options to Cheat on the State

In this article we study the social norms to abstain from cheating on the state via benefit fraud and tax evasion. We interpret these norms (called benefit morale and tax morale) as moral goods, and derive testable hypotheses on whether their demand is determined by prices. Employing a large survey data set from OECD‐member countries we provide robust evidence that the demand responds to price proxy variables as predicted by theory. The main general conclusion of this article is that social norms (which are widely accepted as determinants of individual economic behaviour) are themselves influenced by economic factors.     

Habits,Complementarities and Heterogeneity in Alcohol and Tobacco Demand: A Multivariate Dynamic Model*

In this paper we test the existence of forward‐looking behaviour in a multivariate model for alcohol and tobacco consumption. The theoretical framework, based on a dynamic adjustment cost model with forward‐looking behaviour, is enhanced to include the intertemporal interactions between the two goods. The analysis of the within‐period preferences completes the intertemporal model, allowing to evaluate the static substitutability/complementarity relationships. The empirical strategy consists in a two‐step estimation procedure. In a first stage, we obtain the parameters of the demand system, while in a second stage Euler equations are estimated. Results, based on a cohort data set constructed from a series of cross‐sections of the Italian Household Budget Survey, reveal a significant complementarity relationship between alcohol and tobacco. Estimation of the Euler equations does not lead to rejection of the hypothesis of intertemporal dependence, providing evidence for a forward‐looking behaviour in alcohol and tobacco consumption. Moreover, we find significant intertemporal interactions that support the adjustment cost setting in a multivariate model with rational expectations.     

Certification and socially responsible production

In many markets, consumers are unable to distinguish between goods that are produced in a socially responsible way and goods that are not. In such situations, socially responsible production is not a profit-maximizing strategy, even if the premium that consumers are willing to pay exceeds the costs. Only firms that are genuinely motivated by social responsibility would then produce in this way, and there would be too little socially responsible production. Improved opportunities for voluntary certification could potentially reduce this problem by allowing firms to signal their type. We examine how the possibility of certification affects the share of socially responsible production. Our main result is that increased certification may reduce the share of socially responsible production by reducing prices in the market for uncertified products and thus crowd out socially responsible producers who do not certify. This provide a mechanism through which certification might have adverse effects on socially responsible production, even when the certification process is perfect and when there is perfect competition among the producers.     

Endogenous mergers under multi-market competition

This paper examines a simple model of strategic interactions among firms that face at least some of the same rivals in two related markets (for goods 1 and 2). It shows that when firms compete in quantity, market prices increase as the degree of multi-market contact increases. However, the welfare consequences of multi-market contact are more complex and depend on how two fundamental forces play out. The first is the selection effect, which acts to increase welfare, as shutting down the relatively more inefficient firm is beneficial. The second opposing effect is the internalisation of the Cournot externality effect; reducing the production of good 2 allows firms to sustain a higher price for good 1. This works to increase prices and, therefore, decrease consumer surplus (but increase producer surplus). These two effects are influenced by the degree of asymmetry between markets 1 and 2 and the degree of substitutability between goods 1 and 2.     

When territory matters: Employer associations and changing collective goods strategies

Recent research shows employer associations strategically responding to external challenges, from collective bargaining decentralisation, by altering their offerings of “selective” goods (to directly address threats to membership levels) and of “elective” goods (to revenues). Implicit is that traditional “collective goods” are irrelevant for achieving sustainability. That literature also suggests that territorial associations are more vulnerable than sectoral ones. In this qualitative, longitudinal comparative case study, we explore why and how two territorial associations, the largest each in Italy and Australia, have pursued sustainability by also innovatively enlarging their collective goods activities. This has involved shifting from bargaining leadership to promoting economic dynamism within their territories. Using metaorganisation theory and the resource‐based view, we explain how these associations realised their strategic advantages. Our evidence suggests that innovatively developing new collective goods may be another important way associations can improve their competitive positions.     

Horizontal vs. Vertical Interdependence in Multinational Activity*

This paper sheds light on interdependencies in multinational activity that are brought about by (horizontal) trade in final goods and (vertical) trade in intermediate goods (within and between host countries). We use a panel data set of US foreign affiliate sales to 16 developed countries in seven industries over the period 1983–2000, distinguish between horizontal and vertical interdependence in multinational enterprise activity and allow for both market size (demand)‐related as well as remainder linkage effects. Evidence suggests that vertical interdependence is somewhat more important than horizontal interdependence and, hence, vertical motives of multinational activity tend to dominate horizontal ones.

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The cross‐Euler equation approach to intertemporal substitution in import demand

This paper addresses the empirical dilemma in identifying and estimating the parameters governing the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) for import demand. We propose a new concept, the cross‐Euler equation, for overcoming this empirical dilemma. IES parameters are estimated by exploiting the cointegrating restriction implied by the cross‐Euler equation. Further, by comparing the IES estimates from the cross‐Euler equation to those from the standard Euler equation, we test the hypothesis whether import demand is affected by nuisance factors. Using the US data, we found imported goods consumption to be robust against nuisance factors, but not for domestic goods. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards Unrestricted Public Use Business Microdata: The Synthetic Longitudinal Business Database

In most countries, national statistical agencies do not release establishment‐level business microdata, because doing so represents too large a risk to establishments’ confidentiality. One approach with the potential for overcoming these risks is to release synthetic data; that is, the released establishment data are simulated from statistical models designed to mimic the distributions of the underlying real microdata. In this article, we describe an application of this strategy to create a public use file for the Longitudinal Business Database, an annual economic census of establishments in the United States comprising more than 20 million records dating back to 1976. The U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Internal Revenue Service recently approved the release of these synthetic microdata for public use, making the synthetic Longitudinal Business Database the first‐ever business microdata set publicly released in the United States. We describe how we created the synthetic data, evaluated analytical validity, and assessed disclosure risk.     

Robust results on the sharing of firm-specific information: Incentives and welfare effects

Contrary to much of the existing literature, we obtain robust and clear-cut results for the incentives and welfare effects of information sharing when information is firm-specific. We show that firms’ incentives to share this type of information are aligned with social welfare. Whenever revealing information is the dominant strategy (such as for Cournot firms revealing costs or Cournot and Bertrand firms revealing demand), it is socially beneficial. Only cost information in Bertrand competition will not be revealed but this is socially desirable, too. These findings are independent of distributional assumptions on random shocks and signals and hold for general asymmetric oligopoly with any mixture of substitute, complementary and independent goods.     

Privatisation and vertical integration under a mixed duopoly

This paper analyses the privatisation of public firms when private firms may be vertically integrated with their suppliers. We consider a mixed duopoly with a vertically integrated public firm. The private firm bargains the price of the input with its supplier if they are not vertically integrated. We find that for a given bargaining power of the private firm, it vertically integrates with its supplier if goods are weak substitutes. We also find that there is less vertical integration in the mixed duopoly than in the private duopoly. Finally, in general, the public firm is privatised when goods are close substitutes and the bargaining power of the private firm is low enough.     

Can Good Apples Be Mixed with Bad Economics? A Mengerian Critique of the Alchian and Allen Theorem

Abstract . The Alchian and Allen Theorem has been a popular staple of many economics classes since Armen Alchian and William Allen first introduced it in their well‐known text University Economics. The Theorem says that the addition of the same fixed cost to two similar goods will result in an increase of demand for the higher‐priced, “higher‐quality” good relative to the lower‐quality item. Response to the Theorem ranges from an informal comment that it is a “parlor trick” to it being called the “Third Law of Demand.” We review some of the literature, and use Carl Menger's economic analysis to challenge the Theorem's validity. Based on Menger's analysis, we conclude that the Theorem is not, in fact, a theorem because it is does not describe a general case, but instead only applies in some cases, thereby becoming, at best, a special case of Menger's more general analysis. Further, we find evidence that Alchian and Allen themselves unwittingly contradict their own argument elsewhere in one of their texts.     

Structural Analysis of Electricity Demand and Supply Interactions*

We specify a structural asymmetric vector error‐correction model to identify and estimate the demand and supply functions in hourly day‐ahead wholesale electricity markets. In doing so, we provide, inter alia, new insights into a well‐established but unresolved issue concerning the extent of the demand elasticity to price in these markets. We show that whilst demand appears to be inelastic in the short‐run, the quantity traded on the market is significantly influenced by the price level and responds to previous disequilibria in the supply curve through an asymmetric error‐correction mechanism, reacting to a positive disequilibrium but not to a negative one.     

Complexity results for the weak axiom of revealed preference for collective consumption models

The purpose of this paper is to establish the complexity of alternative versions of the weak axiom of revealed preference (warp) for collective consumption models. In contrast to the unitary consumption model, these collective models explicitly take the multi-member nature of the household into account. We consider the three collective settings that are most often considered in the literature. We start with the private setting in which all goods are privately consumed by the household members. Next, we consider the public setting in which all goods are publicly consumed inside the household. Finally, we also consider the general setting where no information on the (private or public) nature of goods consumed in the household is available. We prove that the collective version of warp is np-hard to test for both the private and public settings. Surprisingly, we also find for the general setting that the collective version of warp is easy to test for two-member households.