Investor Expectations and the North American Free Trade Agreement

The paper uses a stock market event study to examine investors' expectations of NAFTA's effect on the profitability of manufacturing industries in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. The main finding is that factor intensity, specifically a measure of the industry–wide labor–capital ratio, is the most significant determinant of excess returns. The results suggest that investors believed the NAFTA would favor industries that used abundant factors intensively and reduce profitability in industries that relied heavily on scarce factors; and, more generally, that factor intensity is a primary source of comparative advantage. No significant relationship was found between the relative scale of industries among the three countries and the NAFTA's expected influence on profitability.     

Endogenous Market Structure and Technology Licensing

This paper analyses the optimal licensing strategy of a licensor firm that competes with potential licensee firms in an industry with endogenous entry. The optimal licensing strategy of the licensor firm is to have zero royalty and positive fixed fees, which is a result that sharply contrasts with the existing literature whereby licensor firms tend to charge positive royalties to their rival licensees. Under the optimal licensing strategy, the licensor firm and the licensee firms are active in the market, but not the non‐licensed firms. This equilibrium market structure is socially desirable if the fixed production cost is not too small.     

Optimal Taxation for Polluting Oligopolists with Endogenous Market Structure

This paper examines the optimal output taxes for polluting oligopolists under endogenous market structure, in the presence of external costs that vary exogenously with aggregate output. For general functional forms, we show that (i) the equilibrium number of firms in an industry may differ from the socially optimal number of firms and (ii) the second-best optimal taxes under imperfect competition could be less than, equal to, or greater than marginal external damages depending upon the curvature of market demand.     

试析《中美洲自由贸易协定》多角化影响

历经9年的艰苦谈判之后,美国与中美洲五国及多米尼加签署了《中美洲自由贸易协定》(CAFTA-DR).该协定的签署对于中美洲国家而言意义重大,借助该协定的实施,中美洲国家的贸易与直接投资将会得到大幅度的增长,地区经济将会快速发展.同时,CAFTA-DR的签订,改变了中美洲原先的次区域一体化优先路线,对中美洲未来的区域一体化进程将会产生深远的影响.     

Emission Taxes and Optimal Refunding Schemes with Endogenous Market Structure

The purpose of this paper is to investigate optimal schemes for refunding the emission tax in a free-entry market where the production process generates emissions. We consider the regulation by a three-part tax policy: the government sets an emission tax, a refunding scheme, and an entry-license tax. In contrast to the case of the two-part tax-refund policy under no entry, we show that even if it is impossible to obtain subsidies from outside, the first-best outcome is always attained. Further, the government’s budget constraint is binding under the optimal schemes. Our result implies that the tax-refund system works effectively in a market with endogenous entry.     

Trade creation and trade diversion in the Canada – United States Free Trade Agreement

In this paper the changes in trade patterns introduced by the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement are examined. Variation in the extent of tariff liberalization under the agreement is used to identify the impact of tariff liberalization on the growth of trade both with member countries and non-member countries. Data at the commodity level are used, and the results indicate that the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement had substantial trade creation effects, with little evidence of trade diversion. JEL Classification: F13, F14
Création de commerce et diversion de commerce dans l'Accord de libre-échange Canada-U.S. Ce mémoire examine les changements dans les patterns de commerce international engendrés par l'Accord de libre-échange entre la Canada et les Etats-Unis. La variation dans l'intensité de libéralisation tarifaire selon les secteurs dans l'Accord est utilisée pour identifier l'impact de la libéralisation tarifaire sur la croissance du commerce à la fois entre les pays membres et avec les pays non-membres. A l'aide de données par produits, on montre que l'Accord a eu des effets substantiels de création de commerce mais qu'il n'y a pas lieu de croire qu'il y a eu beaucoup de diversion de commerce.     

美国自由贸易协定战略安排与中国竞争地位研究

美国全球自由贸易协定战略调整导向着全球经济一体化的发展方向。中国自由贸易协定建设起步较晚，但中国-东盟自由贸易区的启动已经使中国在东亚取得先机。在此种情况下，美国在东盟、中东及中亚国家的渗透合作，与中国形成竞争局面。中国应加快与新加坡、日本、韩国及印度等不同发展程度国家的贸易磋商与谈判，以加强中国外贸可持续发展的战略合作。     

Trade agreements and international comovements: The case of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)

Business cycles correlation between Mexico and the US changed from being on a downward sloping path before 1992 to an upward sloping path after that. This paper suggests that the North American Free Trade Agreement could be the explanation. NAFTA generated not only an increase in the volume of trade but also a change in the elasticity of substitution between imports and exports. The paper tests this hypothesis using the neoclassical business cycles model. Although there are still some discrepancies between the theory and data in the degree of correlation, the direction of change in the model corresponds to the one in the data.     

The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and labour market adjustment in Canada

Evidence suggests that the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA) had almost no effect on earnings and had a small negative effect on manufacturing employment. Theory suggests that a change in trade policy may affect skilled and less-skilled workers differently. The labour market consequences of CUSTA tariff reductions are analysed in this paper. It is found that the tariff reductions lowered employment predominantly among less-skilled workers but did not affect the earnings of either skilled or less-skilled workers. The employment effects are due to the fact that relatively less-skill-intensive industries were more highly protected than high-skill-intensive industries prior to CUSTA.
On montre que l'accord de libre échange Canada-US n'a eu presque pas d'effet sur les gains et un impact négatif faible sur l'emploi dans le secteur manufacturier. La théorie suggère qu'un changement dans la politique commerciale peut avoir un effet différent sur les travailleurs qualifiés et moins qualifiés. Le mémoire analyse les effets des réductions dans les droits de douane sur le marché du travail. Il appert que les réductions des tarifs douaniers ont eu des effets négatifs sur l'emploi des moins qualifiés mais n'ont pas affecté le niveau des gains des qualifiés et des moins qualifiés. Les effets d'emploi sont attribuables au fait que les industries engageant des personnes relativement moins qualifiées étaient davantage protégés avant l'accord de libre échange que les industries employant une main d'oeuvre plus qualifiée.     

市场结构，贸易自由化和GATS

原载:European Journal0f Political Economy Vol.595(2001)[《欧洲政治经济学杂志》2001年第595卷]一、概述自建立以来,多边贸易体系一直只关注货物贸易。因此,从1947到东京回合,服务在历次的贸易谈判中都未曾提及。乌拉圭回合及其后世界贸易组织的成立,改变了这种状况。通过服务贸易总协定(GATS),他们将服务引进并纳入到多边贸易体系中。然而,实际的自由化程度一直相对较低,GATS的许多减让表还只是简单地停留在承诺上(或者连承诺都谈不上)。所以人们普遍认为服务部门的自由化仍有很大的发展空间。本文关心的是服务部门自由化的解析…     

A Ricardian Model with Endogenous Comparative Advantage and Endogenous Trade Policy Regimes

This paper develops a Ricardian model with transaction costs and endogenous and exogenous comparative advantages. It shows that the level of division of labour and trade increases as transaction conditions improve. It identifies the conditions for trade negotiations that result in zero tariff rates and the conditions for the coexistence of unilateral tariff protection and unilateral laissez faire policies. The model may explain the policy transformation of some European governments from Mercantilism to laissez faire in the 18th and 19th century and policy changes in developing countries from protection tariff to trade liberalization and tariff negotiation.     

自由贸易协定中原产地规则的经济效应分析

原产地规则是自由贸易协定中的一项重要内容,对于正在积极参与自由贸易协定的中国来说,更是一个日益重要的理论和实践问题.本文着重于分析自由贸易协定中的原产地规则对企业成本、贸易、投资和福利方面的影响,并在此基础上提出我国制定和有效发挥原产地规则作用的政策建议.     

自由贸易谈判

1、介绍国际经济学中一个最富争议的问题是：实现全球自由贸易最有效的战略是区域主义还是多边主义?根据巴格瓦蒂(Bhagwati,1993)所分析,第一次区域主义浪潮出现于20世纪60年代,但由于美国支持多边主义方式而停止扩展。而自20世纪80年代开始,美国转变立场,支持区域贸易协定。这一转变带来了第二次区域主义浪潮,促成大量自由贸易协定     

Endogenous Growth and Trade Liberalization

We develop an endogenous growth model in which trade liberalization has a positive effect on growth. This effect does not depend on marginal re-allocations nor on knowledge-spillovers. Rather, it is due solely to the increase in market size following the integration of product markets. Our result contradicts a widely-help view that trade on physical goodsper sehas no consequences for long-run growth.[F15]     

积极开拓印度市场,协调我国外贸发展结构

加入WTO以后，我国外贸发展迅速，但也存在外贸依存度过高、出口市场过于集中的问题，使贸易摩擦趋于频繁，加大了我国面临的国际经济和政治风险，危及我国的和平稳定与可持续发展。为减少对美、日、欧市场的过度依赖，分散风险，减少贸易纠纷，提高应变能力，我们必须大力开拓其他重点市场和新兴市场，努力实现出口市场多元化。作为世界上入口仅次于我国的发展中国家，印度近年来已成为世界上经济增速最快的国家之一，具有巨大的市场潜力，印度市场应成为我们重点开拓的出口市场，对外贸易发展结构的协调和我国发展周边关系都具有重要意义。本文重点探讨了我国企业拓展印度市场的策略。     

美韩FTA对中国对外贸易的正负效应分析

2007年2月韩国和美国结束了近十个月的艰苦谈判,达成了自由贸易协定.担心在日本和中国的缝隙里被埋没的韩国,正通过FTA体现出自己作为"中枢国家"的存在价值,而且通过签署FTA协定,美国可以加大在亚太地区的影响力,以平衡中国增长的影响力,所以对他们的联姻,中国并不能置身事外.本文分析了美韩签署FTA产生的贸易转移效应、中韩两国的商品在美国市场的竞争力、中美农产品在韩国市场的竞争力及中韩FTA谈判的可能性,针对美韩签署FTA给中国带来的负面效应提出相应的对策.     

Endogenous Growth and International Trade*

This paper clarifies and slightly generalizes the basic endogenous-growth model. I prove the basic theorems without the usual assumption that the distribution of knowledge around the world is irrelevant. Results are stated in terms of lemmas, theorems, and corollaries in order to bring out as clearly as possible the role of each assumption.     

不完全金融市场、海外资产结构与国际贸易

本文在动态不确定性模型分析框架下,分析了金融自由化和金融深化对一国居民消费、资产选择和福利的影响。研究表明,两国金融市场完全性的差异会导致在金融自由化的经济环境中,金融市场完全性低的国家由于有更多的预防性储蓄而出现贸易盈余,相应金融市场完全性高的国家出现贸易赤字。同时,金融市场发展的差异也深刻影响两国居民资产组合的选择,促使金融市场完全性高的国家"做多股权,做空债权",金融市场完全性低的国家"做空股权,做多债权",并导致资本从金融市场完全性低的国家主要以购买债券的形式流向金融市场完全性高的国家。     

中国-东盟《货物贸易协定》下的商机分析

中国-东盟将在2005年7月1日起逐步降低关税，直至2010年将关税降为零。我国企业如何利用中国与东盟的《货物贸易协定》以及其承认我国完全市场经济地位等有利条件，适时进入东盟市场，已成为学术界关注研究的重要课题。     

Tariff evasion and rules of origin violations under the Canada‐U.S. Free Trade Agreement

Abstract Using product‐level data on trade between Canada and the U.S., this paper presents evidence of tariff evasion and violation of the rules of origin occurring under the Canada‐U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA). It shows that more imports go unreported at the destination country when tariffs are higher. Consistent with the tariff evasion hypothesis, this result implies that the trade creation effect of a free trade agreement may in fact be due to less underreporting. Further, this paper shows that the larger Canadian tariff preference margin for the U.S. is associated with more goods originating in third countries being transshipped through the U.S. territory for re‐export. The preference margin is also positively correlated with the value of excess imports from the U.S., which qualify for preferential treatment. Both results suggest the presence of persistent violations of CUSFTA’s rules of origin.