Financial Distress and the Earnings‐Sensitivity‐Difference Measure of Conservatism

Following Basu (1997 ), the difference between the sensitivity of accounting earnings to negative equity return (proxy for bad news) and its sensitivity to positive equity return (proxy for good news) is interpreted as an indicator of conditional accounting conservatism. However, there is concern that the earnings‐sensitivity difference (ESD) may be affected by factors other than conditional conservatism, and that this may impair its reliability as an indicator of conditional conservatism. Motivated by such concerns and by recognition that financial distress could contribute to an ESD through a conditional‐conservatism route and/or through a non‐conditional‐conservatism route, we examine the association between financial distress and the ESD for U.S. non‐financial firms. By decomposing the association into an element arising from accruals, which can reflect conditional conservatism, and an element arising from cash flow from operating activities (CFO), which cannot directly reflect conditional conservatism, we seek evidence as to whether such association arises through a conditional‐conservatism route or through a non‐conditional‐conservatism route. We find that positive association between financial distress and the ESD arises predominantly through the accruals component of earnings rather than the CFO component, consistent with it arising primarily because of a higher degree of conditional conservatism in relatively financially distressed firms. The inference that there is a positive association between financial distress and conditional conservatism is supported by other non‐equity‐return‐based measures of conditional conservatism. The evidence in this paper suggests that the effect of financial distress does not significantly impair the reliability of the ESD as an indicator of conditional conservatism.     

Stock Liquidity Risk and the Cross‐sectional Earnings‐Returns Relationship

We argue that a higher sensitivity to aggregate market‐wide liquidity shocks (i.e., a higher liquidity risk) implies a tendency for a stock's price to converge to fundamentals. We test this intuition within the framework of the earnings‐returns relationship. We find a positive liquidity risk effect on the relationship between return and expected change in earnings. This effect on the earnings‐returns relationship is distinct from the negative effect observed for stock illiquidity level. Notably, the liquidity risk effect is evident (absent) during periods of neutral/low (high) aggregate market liquidity. We also show that the liquidity risk effect is dominant in firms that: (a) are of intermediate size; (b) are of intermediate book‐to‐market; and (c) are profit making.     

政府补贴与企业绩效

政府为发展地方经济,会介入企业的投资、经营、管理等活动,政府补贴是一种最直接的手段,政府补贴成为影响企业活动的重要因素.在对相关理论进行规范研究的基础上,本文选取2014-2016年A股上市公司为研究样本,分析了政府补贴与企业绩效、社会效益的关系,并进一步分析了所有制差异、企业经验差异对政府补贴效果的影响.本文的研究表明:(1)政府补贴会提高企业绩效,同时也可以提高社会效益;(2)政府补贴对非国有企业的促进作用更强;(3)政府补贴对富有经验的企业,即发展规模更大、存在时间更长的企业的促进作用更强.     

Investment Dynamics and Earnings‐Return Properties: A Structural Approach

We propose the standard neoclassical model of investment under uncertainty with short‐run adjustment frictions as a benchmark for earnings‐return patterns absent accounting influences. We show that our proposed benchmark generates a wide range of earnings‐return patterns documented in accounting research. Notably, our model generates a concave earnings‐return relation, similar to that of Basu [1997], and predicts that the earnings‐return concavity increases with the volatility of firms’ underlying shock processes and decreases with the level of firms’ investments. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Overall, our evidence suggests that our proposed benchmark is useful for understanding the joint dynamics of variables of interest to accounting research (e.g., earnings, returns, investment, market‐to‐book) absent accounting influences, a necessary precondition for inferring the effects of accounting from these dynamics.     

A Generalized Earnings‐Based Stock Valuation Model with Learning

We present a stock valuation model in an incomplete‐information environment in which the unobservable mean of earnings growth rate (MEGR) is learned and price is updated continuously. We calibrate our model to a market portfolio to empirically evaluate its performance. Of the 8.84% total risk premium we estimate, the earnings growth premium is 4.57%, the short‐rate risk contributes 3.38%, and the learning‐induced risk premium on the unknown MEGR is 0.89% (a nontrivial 10% of the total risk premium). This result highlights the significant learning effect on valuation, implying an additional risk premium in an incomplete‐information environment.     

Performance Measures in Earnings‐Based Financial Covenants in Debt Contracts

This paper examines how performance measures are defined in major earnings‐based financial covenants in loan contracts to shed light on the economic rationales underlying the contractual use of performance measures. I find an earnings‐based covenant is typically based on a performance measure close to earnings before interest, tax, amortization, and depreciation expenses (EBITDA). However, my empirical analyses show that EBITDA is less useful in explaining credit risk than earnings before interest and tax expenses (EBIT) and even the bottom‐line net income. Thus, measuring credit risk cannot fully explain the choice of accounting performance measures in earnings‐based covenants. I conjecture that contracting parties choose an EBITDA‐related measure, instead of a measure calculated after depreciation and amortization expenses (e.g., EBIT), to make the performance measure less sensitive to investment activities, which can be controlled through other contractual terms, such as a restriction on capital expenditure, and provide empirical evidence consistent with this conjecture.     

Does Accrual Management Impair the Performance of Earnings‐Based Valuation Models?

This study examines how accrual manipulations affect firm valuation in the years surrounding the passage of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (SOX). We compare the absolute percentage pricing errors of RIM and DCF valuation models for a group of US firms suspected to have engaged in accrual manipulations to avoid a small loss or a small earnings decline vs. ‘Normal’ firms matched on industry, year and size. We find that RIM can better estimate intrinsic value than DCF for the matched Normal firms in the pre‐SOX period, but not so for accrual manipulators, and that SOX mitigates the harmful effect of accrual manipulations, completely eliminating the difference in RIM's accuracy advantage over DCF between Normal firms and accrual manipulators. As a further analysis, we redefine Suspect firms as real‐activity manipulators and find a significant across‐group difference in accuracy wedge in both sample periods, implying that SOX has prompted firms to favor real‐activity manipulations over accrual manipulations.     

政府补贴、财务冗余对高新技术企业双元创新的影响

高水平的财务冗余政策与创新战略相协调,对企业持续保持竞争优势至关重要。政府补贴作为企业获得的外部资金支持,是创新资源的重要补充。本文以上市高新技术企业为样本,研究财务冗余、政府补贴对企业双元创新投资的直接作用和互补作用。研究主要发现:较之于对开发式创新的影响,政府补贴、财务冗余对企业探索式创新投资具有显著的促进作用,财务冗余与政府补贴对激励探索式创新投资具有一定的互补作用;相对于国有企业,民营企业的财务冗余与探索性创新投资的相关性较弱,政府补贴与财务冗余激励探索性创新投资的互补作用更加显著。     

农业保险政府补贴的国际比较及启示

农业保险是发展现代农业、促进新农村建设的重要措施。但是,没有政府补贴,农业保险难以持续经营和发展。本文试图将发达国家和发展中国家的农业保险政府补贴进行比较分析,从中探寻我国农业保险政府补贴的路径选择。     

政府补贴对地区生产率的影响评估

本文采用广义倾向评分匹配(GPSM)方法,更为严谨地分析了政府补贴强度对地区生产率的影响.研究结果发现:(1)我国的地方政府更倾向于补贴技术创新水平更高或更具技术创新潜力的地区.同时,地方政府的补贴强度还受到政府支出的制约;(2)政府补贴强度与地区生产率之间呈现显著的"倒U型"非线性关系,即当政府的补贴强度小于临界值时,政府补贴能够显著地促进地区生产率的提升,而当政府补贴强度大于这一临界值时,政府补贴对地区生产率会产生显著的抑制作用.进一步分析影响机制发现,政府补贴能够通过提高集约边际下地区间的资源配置效率,进而提升地区的生产率,但同时也会通过抑制二元边际下地区间的资源配置效率而对地区生产率产生不利的影响.总的来看,在政府补贴强度较低时,政府补贴的正效应大于负效应,而当政府补贴强度超过其临界值时,政府补贴的负效应将更加明显.     

政府补助对可再生能源投资的门槛效应研究

运用中国A股市场96家可再生能源企业2009-2018年数据,引入能源消耗强度、经济发展水平、市场化程度和银行信贷四个门槛变量建立固定效应面板门槛模型,实证检验能源转型视角下政府补助对可再生能源投资的门槛效应,探讨不同补助类型和企业异质性对门槛效应的影响和差异。结果表明：政府补助对可再生能源投资的促进作用存在门槛效应。在能源消费强度更高、经济发展水平或市场化程度更低的地区,政府补助对可再生能源投资的促进作用更显著,同时政府补助对可再生能源投资的促进作用在银行信贷规模越大的企业更显著;相比于货币型直接补助,税收优惠型的间接补助政策更能促进可再生能源投资;政府补助对非国有企业的投资促进作用强于国有企业。     

政府规制下的金融成长分析

金融成长包含了金融增长和金融发展两个方面,金融增长较多地描述了金融量的扩张,而金融发展则突出了金融质的提高。金融成长的过程按照规制结构可以划分为金融抑制、金融约束和金融深化三个阶段。对于我国金融改革而言,提高金融成长水平的出路在于增加金融成长中金融发展的份额,即提高金融质的成长度,关键在于推动金融创新,金融创新本身归根到底就是以寻找合理的规制制度结构和规制幅度为目标的金融制度改革。     

物流负外部性及其政府规制

通过建立博弈模型,对企业与企业、企业与政府在实施绿色治理物流负外部性的过程中的博弈行为及企业与政府之间的合谋行为进行了分析。分析结果表明,在政府规制前提下,为了激励企业实施绿色物流,政府应尽量减少监督检查成本,并对负外部性比较严重的企业加以重罚,对实施绿色物流的企业给予补贴,以提高企业实施绿色物流的积极性;另外,在进行政府规制的过程中,必须制定严格的监督机制、奖惩机制和利益协调机制,增加企业寻租的成本和风险,尽量避免企业和政府合谋行为的产生。     

政府补贴和国有参股对参与PPP企业外部融资的影响

政府补贴和国有资本参股是政府参与PPP(政府和社会资本合作)的两种主要方式。本文借助一个资本具有外部性的一般均衡模型来分析这两种方式对企业外部融资的影响机制,并进行经验验证。理论分析发现,国有参股的担保效应增加了项目公司对高杠杆的需求,提升了金融中介发放贷款的意愿,使金融中介接受更低的借款利率。政府补贴不影响项目公司与金融中介之间的借贷合约。项目公司外部融资所受影响会进一步传导至参与PPP的企业。因此,国有参股增加稳态时的企业杠杆率,降低借款利率;政府补贴则不影响杠杆率和利率。实证部分通过整合2014-2018年财政部PPP项目库数据和2010-2018年上市公司财务数据,借助PSM-DID分析发现,国有参股程度显著降低参与PPP项目的上市公司的借贷成本并提升其杠杆率,但政府补贴支出没有明显作用,印证了模型结论。此外,市场化程度更高的地区,国有参股程度对参与企业外部融资的影响程度更小。本文研究对PPP模式下如何减少政府债务风险以及控制债务风险向企业转移具有一定的参考意义。     

Political Connections and Government Subsidies: Evidence from Financially Distressed Firms in China

Previous studies report mixed evidence regarding the effect of political connections on firm value. We seek new evidence in China, an important emerging market with a hallmark of a relationship-based economy. Using financially distressed firms (special treatment or ST firms) as a unique sample, we identify a direct channel through which political connections enhance firm value by showing that politically connected firms receive more government subsidies. Moreover, such effect becomes stronger for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), for firms with a better chance of survival, and after the government implemented a new policy to more strictly enforce the delisting in 2012.     

海洋运输业竞争力提升中的政府补贴机制研究

政府对海运业提供补贴是提高产业竞争力的主要方式,本文通过博弈分析得出政府有进行航运补贴的内在动机,各国政府通过补贴最大化自己的利益最终陷入“囚徒困境”。本文建立委托一代理模型对政府补贴的运行机制进行分析,最优补贴政策取决于企业努力程度是否可观测、企业风险规避度和企业收益的不确定性,引入可观测变量可以有效的降低政府代理成本。攫取海外垄断利润是政府补贴的内在动因,政府通过设计政策法律机制、激励机制、监督机制对企业引导、激励和监督,促进产业竞争力的提高。     

Equity‐based incentives and shareholder say‐on‐pay

We study the relationship between CEO pay‐performance sensitivity, pay‐risk sensitivity, and shareholder voting outcomes as part of the “say‐on‐pay” provision of the 2010 US Dodd‐Frank Act. Consistent with our hypothesis, we provide evidence that shareholders tend to approve of compensation packages that are more sensitive to changes in stock price (pay‐performance sensitivity). Our findings are consistent with theoretical predictions that outside owners approve of equity incentives as a means of aligning managers' interests with those of shareholders. We also document that future changes to equity‐based incentives are related to voting outcomes and that shareholders incorporate CFO incentives into their votes. Collectively, these results provide evidence of the importance of equity‐based incentives from the perspective of those most concerned with firm value and of the effectiveness of say‐on‐pay as a governance mechanism.     

基于市场分割的地方政府补贴对地区贸易出口的影响

选取2002年到2015年14年间中国30个省（直辖市、自治区）数据,采用系统GMM模型,考量中国地方政府补贴对中国地方贸易出口量的影响。结果发现：地方政府补贴对地区贸易出口的影响主要是通过市场分割实现,但FDI会弱化地方政府补贴对地区贸易出口的正向效应。