Is there selection bias in laboratory experiments? The case of social and risk preferences

Laboratory experiments are frequently used to examine the nature of individuals’ social and risk preferences and inform economic theory. However, it is unknown whether the preferences of volunteer participants are representative of the population from which the participants are drawn, or whether they differ due to selection bias. To answer this question, we measured the preferences of 1,173 students in a classroom experiment using a trust game and a lottery choice task. Separately, we invited all students to participate in a laboratory experiment using common recruitment procedures. To evaluate whether there is selection bias, we compare the social and risk preferences of students who eventually participated in a laboratory experiment to those who did not, and find that they do not differ significantly. However, we also find that people who sent less in a trust game were more likely to participate in a laboratory experiment, and discuss possible explanations for this behavior.     

Does corporate social responsibility reduce financial distress risk?

This paper examines how corporate social responsibility (CSR) affects the level of financial distress risk (FDR). Using a sample of 1201 US-listed firms during 1991–2012, our results indicate that firms with higher CSR levels have lower FDR, suggesting that a better CSR performance makes firms more creditworthy and have better access to financing, which is rewarded with less financial defaults. This finding is robust to using alternative proxies of FDR, to controlling for potential endogeneity, and is mainly driven by the community, diversity, employee relations, and environmental dimensions of CSR. Moreover, this relationship is more prevalent in firms with strong governance mechanisms and high product market competition. It is also more exacerbated for less distressed firms and during non-crisis periods. Overall, our findings suggest that the adoption of CSR practices comes with less distress and default risks, likely leading to a more attractive corporate environment, better financial stability and more crisis-resilient economies.     

Trade and unions: Does size matter?

Our empirical analysis builds upon the hypothesis that unions are detrimental to a firm's efficiency. Using a rich survey of German manufacturers, we investigate firm-level determinants on the probability of collective wage bargaining with particular focus on the impact of a firm's engagement in foreign markets. An interesting and very robust finding is that exporters are less likely to engage in union wage bargaining. This finding is in line with a pessimistic perception of unions. The negative effect of collective bargaining can be offset by efficiency gains for larger exporters, who can benefit from operation cost saving effects. Size does matter as larger firms export and may find bargaining with a single entity representing the workforce more convenient than bargaining with each worker individually. We are using firm level information on IT investment as instrument for the export dummy and successfully test for the validity of this instrument.     

Does aggregate uncertainty explain size and value anomalies?

This paper examines the impact of aggregate uncertainty on return dynamics of size and book-to-market ratio sorted portfolios. Using VVIX as a proxy for aggregate uncertainty, and controlling for market risk, volatility risk, correlation risk and the variance risk premium, we document significant portfolio return exposures to aggregate uncertainty. In particular, portfolios that contain small and value stocks have significant and negative uncertainty betas, whereas portfolios of large and growth stocks exhibit positive and significant uncertainty betas. Using a quasi-natural experimental setting around the financial crisis, we confirm the differential sensitivity of small versus big and value versus growth portfolios to aggregate uncertainty. We posit that due to their negative uncertainty betas, uncertainty-averse investors demand extra compensation to hold small and value stocks. Our results offer an uncertainty-based explanation to size and value anomalies.     

Does size matter? Implications of household size for economic growth and convergence

We assess the effects of changes in household size on the long‐run evolution of living standards and on cross‐country convergence. When the observed changes in average household size across countries are taken into consideration, growth in living standards is slower throughout the 20th century as compared to a measure based on per capita GDP. Furthermore, the speed of divergence between different countries before 1950 is faster and the speed of convergence after 1950 is slower after adjusting for the evolution in household size.     

Would I lie to you? On social preferences and lying aversion

This paper reinterprets the evidence on lying or deception presented in Gneezy (Am. Econ. Rev. 95(1):384–394, 2005). We show that Gneezy’s data are consistent with the simple hypothesis that people are one of two kinds: either a person will never lie, or a person will lie whenever she prefers the outcome obtained by lying over the outcome obtained by telling the truth. This implies that so long as lying induces a preferred outcome over truth-telling, a person’s decision of whether to lie may be completely insensitive to other changes in the induced outcomes, such as exactly how much she monetarily gains relative to how much she hurts an anonymous partner. We run new but broadly similar experiments to those of Gneezy in order to test this hypothesis. While we also confirm that there is an aversion to lying in our subject population, our data cannot reject the simple hypothesis described above either.

---

Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.      

Does branch network size influence positively the management performance of Japanese regional banks?

This article investigates whether branch network expansions by Japanese regional banks influence their management performances positively at a time when management environments surrounding regional financial institutions have become increasingly severe due to the population decreases and shrinkage of regional economies. Specifically, the effects of numbers of regional bank branches on their credit businesses and profits are empirically examined. The results indicated that regional banks with more branches can increase their loans and bills discounted as well as their small and mid-sized enterprises loans and bills discounted. Thus, establishing more branches is effective in increasing the total sum of loans and bills discounted by each bank because regional banks with many branches can make contact with more customers. On the other hand, return on assets and return on equity of regional banks with more branches were found to be lower. Therefore, regarding the cost performance of regional banks, establishing too many branches and maintaining branch networks that are too large can have negative effects on regional banks.     

Does competition influence bank failures?

There has been a notable debate in the banking literature on the impact of bank competition on financial stability. The aim of this article is to provide the first investigation of the role of bank competition on the occurrence of bank failures. We analyse this issue on a large sample of Russian banks for the period 2001–2007, as the Russian banking industry is a unique example of an emerging market which has undergone a large number of bank failures during the last decade. Our findings support the view that tighter bank competition enhances the occurrence of bank failures. Thus, measures that increase bank competition could undermine financial stability.     

Does war influence individual expectations?

We analyse the effect of mass violent conflict on individual expectations in Northern Uganda. We find that the expectations of the future economic situation are negatively affected by recent conflict while the effect on broadly defined welfare is less robust.     

How do neighboring peer companies influence SMEs’ financial behavior?

Recent research into corporate finances has found that the financial decisions of peer companies are related. Companies tend to “kept an eye” on the decisions of other peer companies, among other things, trying to overcome the limitations caused by the lack of information. This paper further examines these interactions including geographical proximity among companies. With this aim, we use a heterogeneous Partial Adjustment Model on a sample of 12,444 small and medium Spanish manufacturing industrial companies. We find strong nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of liquidity, indebtedness and profitability ratios associated with basic characteristics of the companies such as size, technology, age or financial imbalances. Our results indicate that the influence of the environment on the financial behavior of each company, and its responsiveness, vary in function of neighbor firms’ characteristics.     

Does trade creation by social and business networks hold in services?

Recent literature on the border effect has shown that the intensity of trade in goods is positively correlated with the migration stocks between any pair of countries/regions. The number of references for business networks is more limited, but they are also related with a reduction on information costs. In this article we investigate whether such a relation holds also for Spanish domestic trade flows in consumer services. To this end, we use a gravity model rooted in the Dixit–Stiglitz–Krugman theoretical framework and a unique data set on interregional trade flows for some of the main tourism service sectors, namely, accommodations and restaurants. Our industry-specific analysis finds a large positive effect for restaurants but a more limited effect for accommodations. Forces driving the demand in each sector explain this result and suggest the idea that although social networks can act as a substitute of firms in some sectors at the same time they can enhance trade flows in other sectors. We perform the same kind of analysis with a data set (obtained by a similar method) for domestic trade in goods and discover a different response to social and business networks. Finally, we treat the potential endogeneity by taking the instrumental-variable approach of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator and thus obtain consistent results.     

Does default point vary with firm size?

This article aims to improve the predictive ability of KMV model by distinguishing firm size. The evidence suggests that default point would vary with firm size. Using the method of particle swarm optimization, we obtain the optimal default point separately for large firms and small firms. Several statistical tests such as the model confidence set methodology show that our relatively tractable model is more likely to have the strongest predictive ability.     

Does financial globalization promote risk sharing?

In theory, one of the main benefits of financial globalization is that it should allow for more efficient international risk sharing. In this paper, we provide an empirical evaluation of the patterns of risk sharing among different groups of countries and examine how international financial integration has affected the evolution of these patterns. Using a variety of empirical techniques, we conclude that there is at best a modest degree of international risk sharing, and certainly nowhere near the levels predicted by theory. In addition, only industrial countries have attained better risk sharing outcomes during the recent period of globalization. Developing countries have, by and large, been shut out of this benefit. Even emerging market economies, many of which have reduced capital controls and all of which have witnessed large increases in cross-border capital flows, have seen little change in their ability to share risk. We find that the composition of flows may help explain why emerging markets have not been able to realize this presumed benefit of financial globalization. In particular, our results suggest that portfolio debt, which had dominated the external liability stocks of most emerging markets until recently, is not conducive to risk sharing.     

Does education promote social capital? Evidence from IV analysis and nonparametric-bound analysis

This study uses the British National Child Development Study to examine the effect of educational attainment on social capital at the individual level. Social trust and membership of voluntary groups are considered as two basic indicators of social capital. We employ the IV analysis and nonparametric bound analysis to tackle the problem of education endogeneity. Both the approaches reveal that the OLS estimator of the educational effect suffers from an upward bias in the study of group membership. We do not observe any significant bias in the educational effect on social trust. Our empirical findings indicate that education has a positive influence in promoting social trust and membership of voluntary groups.     

Balancing the risk of ‘Lazearian’ interrupters and the benefits of educational and social peers: tracing parental preferences for class-size reduction

Using Danish survey data from a choice experiment, parental preferences for class-size reduction are estimated. While parents with children in large classes are willing to pay for class-size reduction, parents with children in small classes are reluctant and even express negative utility for further class-size reduction. We interpret this as parents balancing the risk of ‘Lazearian’ interrupters and the benefits of educational and social peers when forming their preferences for class size.     

Does decision error decrease with risk aversion?

There is substantial evidence that risky decision-making involves a stochastic error process. The literature has adopted different approaches to address this issue, however, risk preferences are not uniquely identified by the most popular methods; decision error is not predicted to monotonically decrease with risk aversion. This paper reports the results of an experiment that elicits risk preferences to identify risk averse individuals and evaluates the frequency the stochastically dominant of two lotteries is chosen. Risk averse subjects exhibit a strong preference for dominant lotteries. More importantly, violations are consistent with stochastic decision error that decreases with risk aversion.     

Do attitudes toward risk taking affect entrepreneurship? Evidence from second-generation Americans

Journal of Economic Growth - This paper empirically investigates the impact of willingness to take risks on entrepreneurship. We use a quarter century of data on second-generation Americans from...     

Between centralized and decentralized welfare policy: Have national guidelines constrained the influence of local preferences?

Decentralized welfare services allow more flexibility toward individual needs assessment, but may also have negative consequences such as welfare competition or lack of equity between regions. Does national standardization require full centralization of individual assessment, or can a set of unbinding national guidelines reduce unwanted variation between regions? The case of this article is a national benefit norm for municipal social assistance payments issued by the Norwegian central government in 2001. A large share of municipalities changed their local norms to match the national norm in the following years, but data show that local benefit norms are uncorrelated with the actual payments. The apparent compliance to national guidelines does not translate into actual welfare generosity.Although caseworker discretion is important for individual payments, the municipal level of welfare payments is clearly influenced by local preferences and budget constraints. This implies that political control is active, but through other instruments than the local benefit norms.     

Risk and rationalization—The role of affect and cognitive dissonance for sexual risk taking

In spite of increased awareness of HIV/AIDS, high levels of sexual risk taking persist among individuals in HIV susceptible groups. The lack of behavioral change has long puzzled both researchers and policy makers. In this paper, an attempt is made to disentangle mechanisms underlying excessive sexual risk taking. Drawing on ideas from psychology, related to decision-making processes and risk evaluation, an intertemporal model is developed and analyzed. More specifically, the theoretical model merges psychological theories of affect-induced myopia and cognitive dissonance with economic theory of utility maximization. The results of the theoretical analysis suggest that, if sexual arousal is associated with shortsighted behavior, the fear of an HIV infection may reduce the effect of HIV information campaigns via the effect of cognitive dissonance. The results further suggest that policy aimed to increase awareness of rationalization tendencies may constitute an important complement to existing AIDS policies.     

Does trust extend beyond the village? Experimental trust and social distance in Cameroon

In this paper we use experimental data from rural Cameroon to quantify the effect of social distance on trust and altruism. Our measure of social distance is relevant to everyday economic interactions: subjects in a Trust Game play with fellow villagers or with someone from a different village. We find that significantly more money is sent when the players are from the same village. Other factors that influence transfers at least as much as the same-village effect are gender, education and membership of rotating credit groups. To test whether Senders are motivated by altruism, they also play a Triple Dictator Game. Senders transfer significantly more money on average in the Trust Game than in the Triple Dictator Game. However, there is also a social distance effect in the Triple Dictator Game. Results from a Risk Game suggest that Trust Game transfers are uncorrelated with attitudes to risk.