A Note on the Bias in House Price Capitalization Models

Recent research efforts concerning the capitalization of low-rate, seller-supplied financing have employed hedonic pricing models that may produce biased estimates of the capitalization process. The bias results when properties sold with owner financing are included in the researcher's sample. This note discusses the nature of the bias and suggests a possible solution.     

Hedonic Amenity Valuation and Housing Renovations

Hedonic and repeat sales estimators are commonly used to value such important urban amenities as schools, environmental quality and access to transit. Given that property data often omits information on quality differences between same‐aged homes as well as changes in structural attributes over time, researchers must assume that property renovations are uncorrelated with neighborhood amenities. We formally test if this assumption is valid by incorporating detailed data on renovations in Charlotte, North Carolina. We begin by testing how the inclusion of minor and major home improvements influences hedonic and repeat sales indices. Results find limited bias in hedonic indices and that renovated properties are no more likely to be sold than nonrenovated properties. Using the introduction of Charlotte's light rail‐transit system in 2000, we estimate a positive bias of between 1.6% and 19.9% on the capitalized benefits of access to light rail due to omitted information on renovations. Our results show that a number of common data cleaning techniques used to address missing information on structural improvements may worsen this bias.     

Housing Price Indices Based on All Transactions Compared to Repeat Subsamples

The set of real properties sold during a given period of time may be subdivided into several subsets comprising those properties that sold only once, only twice, and three or more times. The major reason for subdividing the sample is to allow estimation of residential price indices by the repeat-sales methodology. The purpose of this paper is to compare price indices estimated with the repeat subsample to indices based on the entire sample.
Our data for five metropolitan areas indicate that cumulative price trends for the repeat subsamples can differ from the full samples over periods ranging from two to ten quarters. While short-term price trends can differ widely, there are no systematic differences among the samples over periods of three years or more. The data indicate that arbitrage typically forces prices for the repeat sample to grow at the same rate as those for the full sample. Whether this would be the case in areas experiencing greater disequilibrium than our towns in the Hartford area is uncertain.     

Product Line Rivalry and Market Segmentation—with an Application to Automobile Optional Engine Pricing

This paper addresses the questions whether and when the pricing practices on base products may differ from those of premium products, sold with options or add-ons. Various alternative models are considered: a monopoly model, a model of brand rivalry with full consumer information and a model of rivalry in which consumers are only well informed about base product prices. Only the brand rivalry model with limited consumer information predicts that premium products have larger percentage markups than base products, provided that brand rivalry is sufficiently intense. Empirical evidence on base and premium product pricing in the automobile market is consistent with the limited information model and inconsistent with the other two models.     

炼油加工费指标计算的探讨

分析了目前的炼油加工费用指标，发现不包括占较大比例的自产能源费用，就不能正确反映加工过程消耗的实际情况，需要改进。探讨了自产能源费用的计算方法和计价原则，即炼油过程中消耗的所有能源都应该以销售价格定价，非外售能源的价格应参照等效替代的外售能源价格定价，目前国内的燃料气和催化烧焦价格可取为等价热值的燃料油价格。通过一个例子表明，当炼油加工费指标改进后，国内炼油厂加工每吨原油节能增效的潜力为20元。     

Joint pricing and procurement of fashion products in the existence of clearance markets

This paper focuses on the joint pricing and procurement of fashion products in the existence of clearance markets. It is assumed that the expected regular season demand is a linear decreasing function of the price and the end of period excess inventory is sold at a known discounted price in a clearance market where the demand is a random variable that follows a general distribution. It is shown that the expected profit function is unimodal and the optimal procurement quantity and price can be found from the first order conditions. Existence of a clearance market increases the profit, price, and the procurement quantity. In order to prove this, the optimal procurement and pricing policy of a price-setting retailer who does not have a clearance market is provided. As opposed to the literature, it is shown that the expected profit function of this problem is unimodal as well. A numerical study demonstrating the magnitude of the increase in profit, procurement quantity, and price is reported.     

Consumer behavior towards on-net/off-net price differentiation

This paper explores how consumers react towards price differentiation between on-net and off-net calls in mobile telecommunications - a pricing policy that is common in many mobile telecommunications markets. Based on a survey of 1044 students it is demonstrated that some consumers may suffer from a "price differentiation bias", i.e., a fair number of consumers may overestimate the savings that result from reduced on-net and/or off-net charges, as they do not appear to weigh the prices with the probabilities of placing off-net and on-net calls. This may help to explain why it have been the smaller operators in various countries who have introduced on-net/off-net price differentiation. The paper also discusses the implications that such a consumer bias may have for market competition.     

Pricing and Product Positioning with Relative Consumer Preferences*

Frequent price promotions force consumers to continuously reassess their preferences over product offerings. When this leads consumers to exhibit a bias of “relative thinking”, such as may be triggered by a focus only on the most salient product attribute, we show in a model of sales (Varian, H. R., 1980, American Economic Review, 70(4), pp. 651–659) that this profoundly alters firms' pricing and product-positioning strategies. Vertical differentiation becomes more likely, with firms preferring to occupy the low-quality space in particular when they have few loyal consumers. More generally, product positioning now depends on the composition of consumers' consideration sets.     

Estimating Market Power with Weak A Priori Information: An Exploratory Approach to the Model-Specification Problem

Choosing the wrong theoretical model to describe an industry??s behavior may lead to biased estimates of the degree of market power. This paper presents a two-step, data-driven methodology to reduce the risk of mis-specification bias. In the first step, a sliced inverse regression identifies the significant factors that affect the industry??s pricing behavior. In the second step, a non-parametric regression of price on the SIR factors estimates the link functions. The output of the algorithm offers useful information to identify the model that best approximates the industry??s pricing behavior. In addition, the output of the algorithm is used to develop a post-estimation test for model specification.     

Commercial Mortgage Pricing with Unobservable Borrower Default Costs

This paper develops a pricing model for commercial real estate mortgage debt that recognizes the influence of default transaction costs on the borrower's default decision. These costs are heterogeneous across borrowers and largely un-observable to the lender/investor at the time of origination or loan purchase. A recognition of these unobservable costs can explain why borrower default decisions may differ from those predicted by "ruthless" mortgage-default pricing models. We address the determinants of default choice and timing by replacing sharp default boundaries found in the ruthless models with "fuzzy" boundaries that account for investor uncertainty with respect to evaluating borrower default decisions. To implement our model, we estimate probabilities of default as a junction of time and net equity in the property. Then, given that default occurs, loss severities are modeled based on expected property value recovery net of foreclosure costs and time until the asset is actually sold. Under reasonable parameter value choices, resulting Monte Carlo simulations produce numerical mortgage price estimates as well as component default frequency and severity levels that realistically reflect default premiums and loss levels observed in the marketplace.     

Local Energy Markets*

In current power markets, the bulk of electricity is sold wholesale and transported to consumers via long-distance transmission lines. Recently, decentralized local energy markets have evolved, often as isolated networks based on solar generation. We analyze strategic pricing, investment, and welfare in local energy markets. We show that local energy markets yield competitive equilibrium prices and provide efficient investment incentives. Yet, we find that strategic behavior leads to allocative inefficiency. We propose a clearing mechanism that induces truth-telling behavior and restores first-best welfare.     

How Do Consumer Characteristics Affect the Bias in Measuring Willingness to Pay for Innovative Products?

Getting the price right is essential for successful new product introductions. An accurate estimate of consumers' willingness to pay is a crucial part of this task. Measurement of willingness to pay for innovations, however, often yields biased results. In this paper, we investigate consumer‐related characteristics and motives that might underlie this bias. Drawing on the elaboration likelihood model, we develop a conceptual model to identify consumer characteristics relevant for preference measurement for innovative products. In doing so, two main factors that potentially influence hypothetical bias are distinguished: ability and motivation. Our conceptual discussion and empirical results demonstrate that the validity of willingness to pay statements is higher among consumers who show a high ability to assess the new product's utility and who are truly interested in purchasing the new product. Counter to intuition, willingness to pay statements from innovators, consumers with good product category knowledge, or consumers who perceive the new product to be highly innovative are relatively more biased and should be interpreted with caution. This research is among the first to look at consumer characteristics rather than methodological issues when it comes to measuring consumer willingness to pay for innovative products. Our conceptual discussion and empirical examination of the drivers of hypothetical bias can be used to refine the validity of the results of the direct willingness to pay approach. These findings should help improve new product pricing surveys and open new avenues for research in measuring consumer preferences.     

Estimating demand elasticities using nonlinear pricing

Nonlinear pricing is prevalent in industries such as health care, public utilities, and telecommunications. However, this pricing scheme introduces bias into estimating elasticities for welfare analysis or policy changes. I develop a local elasticity estimation method that uses nonlinear price schedules to isolate consumers' expenditure choices from selection and simultaneity biases. This method improves over previous approaches by using commonly-available observational data and requiring only a single general monotonicity assumption. Using claims-level data on health insurance with two nonlinearities, I am able to measure two separate elasticities, and find that elasticity declines from − 0.26 to− 0.09 by the second nonlinearity. These estimates are then used to calculate moral hazard deadweight loss. This method enables estimation of many policies with nonlinear pricing which previous tools could not address.     

Beyond the flat rate bias: The flexibility effect in tariff choice

Flat rates are a prominent pricing scheme for telecommunications services and are often preferred by consumers although average costs would be lower in an alternative usage-based tariff. Reasons are that flat rates protect against unexpectedly high costs (insurance effect), are more likely to be chosen if actual usage is overestimated (overestimation effect), and prevent any disutility that is associated with the immediate perception of marginal costs (taximeter effect). This study complements the literature on tariff biases by highlighting that a lack of tariff flexibility is a major impediment to choosing a flat rate: empirical support for this flexibility effect is found, while, at the same time, the insurance and overestimation effect that run in favor of flat rates are confirmed. Finally, the managerial implications of the findings for the introduction of the new cost cap tariff are discussed. The hybrid cost cap tariff can combine the flexibility and the insurance property, and may, therefore, exert a cost cap bias on consumers.     

List pricing and discounting in a Bertrand–Edgeworth duopoly

List, or retail, pricing is a widely used trading institution where firms announce a price that may be discounted at a later stage. Competition authorities view list pricing and discounting as a procompetitive practice. We modify the standard Bertrand–Edgeworth duopoly model to include list pricing and a subsequent discounting stage. Both firms first simultaneously choose a maximum list price and then decide whether to discount, or not, in a subsequent stage. We show that list pricing works as a credible commitment device that induces a pure strategy outcome. This is true for a general class of rationing rules. Further unlike the dominant firm interpretation of a price leader, the low capacity firm may have incentives to commit to a low price and in this sense assume the role of a leader.     

Putting Your Money Where Your Mouth Is: The Value of Low Purchase Intention Consumers to Product Pricing

Hypothetical bias is a common research problem in measuring intentions. This study examines differences in individuals' hypothetical and nonhypothetical willingness to pay (WTP) based on purchase intention level. The purpose of Study 1 is to see if hypothetical bias is affecting all groups of individuals when segmented by purchase intentions. The contingent valuation method (CVM) was used to assess to individuals' purchase intentions and hypothetical WTP for an environmentally friendly (EF) offering. Individuals then participated in an auction that required them to bid on the same offering, thus requiring an actual monetary commitment. Through segmenting individuals into three purchase intention groups (high, moderate, and low), WTP biases were found to be positively related to stated intention level. High and moderate purchase intenders significantly overstated their hypothetical WTP. However, low purchase intenders did not. Further, no significant differences existed in nonhypothetical WTP between the three groups. The price that low purchase intenders were willing to pay through the CVM represented closely what they and the rest of the market were willing to pay in practice. The purpose of Study 2 was to examine several reasons why higher purchase intenders may be overstating their hypothetical WTP, with normative pressure and social desirability bias taken into consideration. Individuals indicated their purchase intentions and hypothetical WTP for an EF and a non‐EF product, and then participated in an auction. The higher purchase intenders again overstated their actual WTP for both products, whereas low purchase intenders did not. Results suggest that both normative pressure and social desirability bias contribute to hypothetical bias for products that carry a normative dimension (EF products). Controlling for these two factors eliminated the differences between hypothetical and nonhypothetical WTP. For products that did not have a normative component (non‐EF products), controlling for social desirability eliminated the gap between the hypothetical and nonhypothetical WTP amounts. A main implication from this research is that hypothetical bias is not a universal phenomenon and does not operate equally in all groups of purchase intenders. Marketers may want to consider only using lower purchase intenders in their pricing estimates for new products, especially for those that carry a normative component. Further, the CVM has received much criticism for measuring hypothetical WTP. However, estimates produced by the CVM were nearly exact for the low purchase intender group and were reliable when controlling for social desirability bias and normative pressure for the higher purchase intenders.     

The Role of Value‐Informed Pricing in Market‐Oriented Product Innovation Management*

Although the positive effect of a market orientation on new product success is widely accepted and the market orientation literature has increased its understanding of how a market orientation leads to performance, the extant literature has overlooked the role of value‐informed pricing in the relationship. Value‐informed pricing is a pricing practice in which the decision makers base the price of the new product on the customers' perceptions of the benefits that the product offers and how these benefits are traded by customers against the price (that has yet to be determined). Considering that pricing mistakes may hit hard on the profitability of product innovations, it is important to firms to have a good understanding of its role. This study develops a framework in which value‐informed pricing is integrated in the relationship between market orientation and new product performance. A distinction is made between customer and competitor orientations, and relative product advantage is also included in the conceptual model. The model is tested on data obtained from managers based on a cross sectional sample of 144 firms. The respondents were involved in a decision‐making process of the pricing of a new product. The model is tested using structural equations modeling. The results show that value‐informed pricing has a strong effect on new product performance. It also reveals that each component of a market orientation fulfills a specific role in a market‐oriented organization. Value‐informed pricing is found to have important mediating effects in the market orientation–new product performance relationship. Results show that firms with a strong customer orientation engage in value‐informed pricing and develop superior benefits to customers in an advantageous product. In turn, both value‐informed pricing and relative product advantage positively affect new product market performance. However, no significant effect of competitor orientation on value‐informed pricing is found. Combined with the finding that competitor orientation negatively affects relative product advantage, this suggests that competitor orientation may hurt new product performance when this orientation is not balanced with a strong customer orientation. The results also portray that value‐informed pricing leads to higher product advantage. Interestingly, this relation is contingent on the degree of interfunctional coordination within the firm. This suggests that the relationship between market orientation and new product performance is strongest if firms integrate value‐informed pricing in the new product development process. In this sense, a market‐oriented firm mirrors the customer value perception that makes a trade‐off between benefits and price.     

Pricing process as a capability: a resource‐based perspective

Strategists following the resource‐based view argue that firms can generate rents through value creation. To create value, firms develop and use resources and capabilities that other firms cannot imitate, trade for, or substitute other assets for. Even a firm that has created value, however, may not capture the potential rents associated with that value. To capture rents, a firm must set the right prices for what it sells. Most views of pricing assume that a firm can readily set appropriate prices. In contrast, we argue that pricing is a capability. To develop the ability to set the right prices, a firm must invest in resources and routines. We base our argument on a study of the pricing process of a large Midwestern manufacturing firm. We show that pricing resources, routines, and skills may help or inhibit a firm in setting the right price—and hence in appropriating value created. Our view of pricing as a capability contributes to the resource‐based view because it suggests that strategists should consider the portfolio of value creation and value appropriation capabilities a firm uses to create competitive advantage. Our view also contributes to economics because it suggests that strategic decisions about pricing capabilities have important implications for a fundamental economic action, determining prices. Managers in firms without effective pricing processes may be unable to set prices that reflect the wishes of its customers, so the customers may misuse their resources. As a result, resources may be used ineffectively. Our view of pricing as a capability therefore takes the resource‐based‐view straight to the heart of what is perhaps the central economic question: the best use of resources. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Consequences of REIT Index Membership for Return Patterns

The impact of stock market index membership on Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stock returns is unclear. Returns may become more like those of other indexed stocks and less like those of their underlying properties. Taking advantage of the inclusion of REITs in major S&P indexes starting in 2001, we find that shared index membership significantly increases the correlation between REIT returns. However, index membership also enhances the link between REIT returns and the underlying real estate, consistent with improved pricing efficiency.     

CEO championing of pricing,pricing capabilities and firm performance in industrial firms

CEOs uniquely shape activities within the firm. Among potential activities, pricing is unique: pricing has a direct and substantial effect on firm performance. In what may be the first quantitative study in industrial marketing polling exclusively CEOs globally we examine to which degree CEO championing of pricing influences pricing capabilities and firm performance. Our sample consists of 358 CEOs of industrial firms. Our results suggest that the level of championing of pricing by the CEO positively influences decision-making rationality, pricing capabilities, and collective mindfulness thereby leading to a significantly higher firm performance. This study also documents a relationship between decision making rationality and pricing capabilities (but not firm performance) thus suggesting that intuition in pricing decisions could drive firm performance.