Dealing with the Duhem-Quine thesis in financial economics: can causal holism help?

Acceptance of the Duhem–Quine thesis implies a recognitionthat empirical tests of individual hypotheses are in fact testsof individual hypotheses in conjunction with the networks fromwhich those hypotheses are derived. This leads to a problemin the evaluation of disconfirming evidence: is it the individualhypothesis or the network that is refuted? This paper examineshow financial economists deal with this ‘joint-testing’problem in their empirical evaluation of the efficient marketshypothesis. Causal holists argue that the holistic testing theyespouse circumvents the difficulties surrounding joint-testingproblems. This paper assesses whether a causal holist approachcan resolve the ambiguity surrounding the evidence against theefficient markets hypothesis. It concludes that, without a resolutionof the ontological–epistemological tension in causal holismidentified by Fleetwood (Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2002,vol. 26, 27–45) and a clearer outline of the nature ofholistic testing, causal holism cannot help financial economistsdeal with the implications of the Duhem–Quine thesis forempirical testing.     

The critical realist conception of open and closed systems

The critical realist (CR) conception of open and closed (O&C) systems is not about systems: it is about (ir)regularities in the flux of events and states of affairs. It has recently been criticised on the grounds that critical realists (CRs) should take on board ideas about the general nature of systems; recognise that genuinely open social systems would be impossible; avoid polarities or dualisms where either there are event regularities and open systems, or there are no event regularities and closed systems and accept partial regularities and partially open systems; and understand that orthodox economics is not based upon event regularities, laws or Humean empiricism. The objective of this paper is to ‘take stock’ of these recent criticisms.     

A critical realist interpretation of evolutionary growth theorising

The paper discusses a critical realist interpretation of evolutionarygrowth theorising by focusing on some of its basic characteristics.The evolutionary ontology is complex, differentiated, structured,systemic, open, ever-changing and radically uncertain. Its methodologytends to be increasingly based on ‘appreciative’theorising, retroductive explanations and interdisciplinaryanalysis. After discussing these features, the paper suggeststhat critical realism may indeed constitute an important philosophicaland methodological foundation for the future development ofevolutionary theories of economic growth.     

Policy evaluation as science: a critical assessment

During theh last few years policy evaluation has become an important area of research. Urban and regional policies have been subjected to more detailed scrutiny than ever before. Yet the gowing body of evaluative research remains isolated from many wider debates in the social and economic sciences. This can be attributed partly to the predilection for scientific methods, caused by the apparent certainty and objectivity they confer. This orientatioin is reflected in the tendency to separate evaluation from the policy process; the narrow perspective of many evaluative studies; the emphasis on quantification; the mechanical approach to analysis; and the inattention paid to undestanding causal processes.     

Financial development and poverty in developing countries: a causal analysis

This article empirically examines the possible causal links between financial development and poverty in developing countries. To this end, we apply a modified form of traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short times series that are available. We conclude that the evidence supports the hypothesis that in the period of the 1970s–1980s financial development, measured by liquid assets of the financial system as a share of GDP or by money and quasi money as a percentage of GDP, leads to the reduction of moderate poverty. These results do not appear for the period of the 1980s–1990s or when financial development is measured by the ratio of the value of credits granted by financial intermediaries to the private sector to GDP, whereas they seem to be strengthened by using summary measures of financial development. Likewise, our analysis does not show any evidence of Granger causality from poverty to financial development.     

Liberalization and the terms of trade in Turkey: a causal analysis

There has been extensive trade liberalization in developing countries in recent decades. Several liberalization episodes have been completed in Turkey. In this paper we evaluate the relationship between trade liberalization in Turkey and the terms of trade. Has liberalization preceded changes in the terms of trade or vice versa. Using causality analysis we investigate several hypotheses and conclude that in this case trade liberalization follows a terms of trade change, a finding which is consistent with the trade shocks hypothesis.     

Macroeconomic uncertainty,growth and inflation in the Eurozone: a causal approach

In this article, we evaluate the causal relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty indices, inflation and growth rate for 17 Eurozone countries on a county-level examination. In performing a series of linear and nonlinear causality tests, we find little evidence of a causal relationship between uncertainty and macroeconomic variables. Thus, macroeconomic analysis based on uncertainty indices should be treated with caution.     

Marx and Ricardo on machinery: a critical note

This article critically discusses the important and relevant—not to mention controversial— views of Ricardo and Marx on the impact of machinery on labor productivity, the organization of production and the wages and employment prospects of the working class during the capitalism of their day. First, the article turns to Ricardo’s assessment of the introduction of machinery and its likely effects on the laborer and the rate of profit and accumulation—one which went through a substantial revision (and reversal) between the first and third editions of his Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. Then, we discuss Marx’s own critical analysis of the historical development of machinery and its impact on the labor process, the so-called “compensation principle,” and how the rising organic composition of capital ostensibly generates a “redundant or surplus-population” during the course of capitalist development. We highlight Marx’s intellectual debt to Ricardo, John Barton (and George Ramsay) insofar as his theory of technological unemployment is concerned. Lastly, the article summarizes the views of Ricardo and Marx and offers some concluding remarks.     

Eriksson on critical realism: a comment

Abstract

This note offers a critique of Ralf Eriksson's treatment of Critical Realism. Eriksson, in the context of an analysis of Keynes, makes several mistaken claims about Critical Realism. Specifically, contrary to Eriksson, Critical Realism does not claim that the world is independent of consciousness, that isolation and closure are equivalent, that abstraction and closure are equivalent, that Lawson employs double standards in the possibility of closed systems, or that realist theories must be simple. Eriksson attacks a vulgar form of realism, but not Critical Realism as it currently stands. We also argue that Eriksson's misinterpretations may be partially due to some ambiguous statements in the Critical Realist literature.     

Costly state verification and debt contracts: a critical resume

This paper presents a critical review of the Costly State Verification framework starting from the basic model by Gale and Hellwig [Review of Economic Studies 52 (1985) 647] and further examining the most recent developments. It aims both at discussing the optimality of debt contract in alternative contexts and at offering a reply to the critiques usually moved to this approach within a unified framework.     

Viewpoint: Estimating the causal effects of policies and programs

Estimation, inference and interpretation of the causal effects of programs and policies have all advanced dramatically over the past 25 years. We highlight three particularly important intellectual trends: an improved appreciation of the substantive importance of heterogeneous responses and of their methodological implications, a stronger focus on internal validity brought about by the “credibility revolution,” and the scientific value that follows from grounding estimation and interpretation in economic theory. We discuss a menu of commonly employed partial equilibrium approaches to the identification of causal effects, emphasizing that the researcher's central intellectual contribution always consists of making an explicit case for a specific causal interpretation given the relevant economic theory, the data, the institutional context and the economic question of interest. We also touch on the importance of general equilibrium effects and full cost–benefit analyses.     

Morphogenetic economics: Change- amplification by causal loops

The monetarist, Keynesian, and supply side theories are based on the concept of equilibria. But in reality the relations among variables may build causal loops that are change-amplifying. The morphogenetic economic the ory includes in its analysis both change-amplifying and change-counteracting causal loops. In the existing economic theories, the major policy tools are money supply and government expenditure. But in the morphogenetic economics, some other elements can be seen as effective policy tools, depending on the node factor, the velocity, and the strength of the causal loops they belong to. The present overdependence on money supply or government expenditure as main tools of economic policy is inadequate. Furthermore, the morphogenetic economics differs from the existing economic theories in its calculation of the level of equilibria and of crowdingout effects.     

Critical reflections on a realist interpretation of Friedman’s ‘Methodology of Positive Economics’

Uskali Mäki has offered an innovative scientific realist account of Milton Friedman’s 1953 essay, ‘The Methodology of Positive Economics’, which directly challenges the dominant instrumentalist interpretation. This paper offers critical reflections on Mäki’s approach and interpretation. It is argued that Mäki’s method of rereading-rewriting the text is problematic; that an unforced instrumentalist account of unrealistic assumptions can be extracted from the text itself; and that seemingly realist passages can be plausibly read as expressing an instrumentalist stance.     

Austrian economics and value judgments: a critical comparison with Neoclassical Economics

This article points out the limits of Austrian economics as far as the passage from positive to normative economics is concerned. We propose a comparison with neoclassical economics and discuss the different theoretical solutions adopted by these two schools of thought in their legitimization of the normative discourse. The bridge from positive to normative economics is analyzed as resting upon two interdependent pillars, one of a technical nature, the other of an ethical one. In neoclassical theory, these two pillars are, respectively, the Pareto principle and the so-called minimal benevolence principle. In the case of Austrian economics, they are the coordination principle and a set of value judgments considered to be ‘quasi-universal’. One problem for Austrian economics is that the coordination principle turns out to be incompatible with process analysis, the latter being a central tenet of the Austrian theory. A second problem, which creates serious difficulties for both schools, has to do with distribution. Our thesis is that whereas the neoclassical solution of the distributive problem is formally consistent (although deeply unrealistic), the Austrian solution is theoretically untenable and based on strong, although implicit, value judgments.     

Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment

The paper provides new evidence on the causal relationship between money and price for the euro area using quarterly data for the period 1980 to 2006, employing two alternative methods of estimation: the vector error correction (VEC) and time-varying coefficient (TVC) estimation techniques. The latter technique has the advantage over the former technique in that it can deal with possible specification biases and spurious relationships that may have arisen from structural changes. The empirical results from the VEC method reveal a bidirectional causal relationship between money and prices. The results from the TVC technique suggest that money is acting as an exogenous process determining the price level.     

Doing without money: a critical assessment of Woodford's analysis

Woodford employs an inter-temporal general equilibrium modelto examine the properties of the monetary system as it evolvesfrom the use of a physical medium of exchange to an electronicmedium. He presents a structure in which cash as a means ofpayment can be made to vanish at the limit, but where he claimsthe price level remains determinate. It is shown that Woodford'sanalysis involves fundamental but still widespread conceptualand methodological errors. His general equilibrium model doesnot map into the world of electronic money, and his analysishas no implications for the art of central banking.