Elections and Capital Flows

This paper investigates the extent to which elections affect capital flows. I find little evidence of political capital flow cycles in advanced economies. In emerging and developing countries, however, presidential elections significantly lower preelection foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows but have no effect on other types of capital flows. Furthermore, I find evidence that these cycles are not caused by economic crises related to elections or preelection manipulation of policy variables. These results suggest that uncertainty about future government policies, which should have greater impact on more irreversible forms of capital flows like FDI, may be an important factor in generating this cycle.     

股权激励、管理者过度自信与权益资本成本

基于行为金融的视角,从管理者过度自信角度解释了我国股权激励计划实施效果不佳的困惑。实证结果表明,我国实施股权激励计划会在高管过度自信的条件下对上市公司权益资本成本产生影响：股权激励计划的实施提高了上市公司高管过度自信水平;股权激励与高管过度自信的相互作用使得上市公司权益资本成本显著升高。这意味着从管理者过度自信的角度考察股权激励对企业权益资本成本造成的影响,可能会更好地解释股权激励的价值效应。     

Portfolio Capital Flows in Thailand: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

We study the gross and net terms of portfolio capital flows by examining their determinants. Through the application of the Bayesian model averaging method, the determinants are evaluated by a set of models instead of a single specification. Our findings show that the magnitude of both gross equity and gross debt flows are large, relative to their net terms. Equity inflows and outflows are quite symmetric with similar determinants; debt inflows and outflows are less symmetric. The paper provides partial evidence to support the importance of both internal and external factors as determinants of capital flows.     

An Analysis of Seasoned Equity Offerings by Equity REITs, 1991 to 1995

This article examines the valuation effect around the filing and offer dates of seasoned equity offerings by Equity REITs over the period 1991 to 1995. Based on a much larger sample, our finding of a significantly negative reaction to filing announcements corroborates the evidence in Howe and Shilling (1988). Our analyses indicate that the valuation effect is impacted more by the information content of the filing than any tax-based explanations. We find a significantly negative valuation effect on the offer day as well. The effect persists even after adjustment of returns by the bid-ask bounce induced by excessive selling of shares in the secondary market by institutional investors to take advantage of offer price discounts. While we attribute the result partly to order flow imbalance around the offer day, this finding is inconsistent with extant literature merits and further investigation.     

The predictability of returns on equity REITs and their co-movement with other assets

Recent evidence suggests that the variation in the expected excess returns is predictable and arises from changes in business conditions. Using a multifactor latent variable model with time-varying risk premiums, we decompose excess returns into expected and unexpected excess returns to examine what determines movements in expected excess returns for equity REITs are more predictable than all other assets examined, due in part to cap rates which contain useful information about the general risk condition in the economy. We also find that the conditional risk premiums (expected excess returns) on EREITs move very closely with those of small cap stocks and much less with those of bonds.     

Exchange Rates and Capital Flows

This paper explores the ability of portfolio and foreign direct investment flows to track movements in the euro and the yen against the dollar. Net portfolio flows from the euro area into US stocks – possibly reflecting differences in expected productivity growth – track movements in the euro against the dollar closely. Net FDI flows, which capture the recent burst in cross‐border M&A activity, appear less important in tracking movements in the euro‐dollar rate, possibly because many M&A transactions consist of share swaps. Movements in the yen versus the dollar remain more closely tied to conventional variables such as the current account and interest differential.     

On the Capital Structure of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

Much of the literature on capital structure excludes Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) due mainly to the unique regulatory environment of these firms. As such, the issue of how REITs choose among different financing options when they raise external capital is largely unexplored. In this paper, we explore two issues on the capital structure of REITs: is there a relationship between market-to-book and leverage ratios, and, is the relationship between market-to-book and leverage ratio temporary or persistent. Our results suggest that REITs with historically high market-to-book ratio tend to have persistently high leverage ratio. In essence, REITs with high growth opportunity and high market valuation raise funds through debt issues. This finding, which is robust to various specifications and econometric tests, is contrary to the financing decisions of non-regulated firms. We attribute it to the special regulatory environment of REITs where, despite no apparent benefits to debt financing, management issues debt. Comments from Robert Edelstein and others at the Maastricht–Cambridge 2005 Symposium, and an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged. Any remaining errors are our own.     

Capital Cash Flows,APV and Valuation

This paper examines three different methods of valuing companies and projects: the adjusted present value (APV), capital cash flows (CCF) and weighted average cost of capital (WACC) methods. It develops the appropriate WACC and beta leveraging formulae appropriate for each valuation model, so that given a particular valuation model the correct APV and CCF values can be determined from the WACC value and vice versa. Further it goes on to show when the perpetuity formulae give poor estimates of the value of individual cash flows, even though the overall values are correct. The paper cautions that the APV and CCF models require more information than is currently known, such as the value of the corporate use of debt, and consequently can give misleading results, particularly in sensitivity analyses.     

Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?

This paper uses the momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) model and the residuals-augmented Dickey–Fuller (RADF) test to examine the possibility of Evans’ (1991) periodically collapsing bubbles in the equity REIT market. The results are mixed. The MTAR model indicates that overall real equity REIT prices and dividends are cointegrated with asymmetric adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium. However, the estimated coefficients of the MTAR model do not indicate the presence of periodically collapsing bubbles. Adjustment in the standard cointegration tests of bubbles for skewness and excess kurtosis via the RADF test fails to reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration, leaving the possibility of periodically collapsing bubbles. The MTAR and RADF results with respect to equity REIT sub-sectors are mixed. Lodging is the only sub-sector in which both the MTAR and RADF results support periodically collapsing bubbles. Moreover, market fundamentals proxied by two alternative measures of capacity utilization do not explain either real equity REIT prices or dividends.     

制度水平与双边股权资本流动——基于Heckman两阶段模型的分析

本文运用66个国家2001-2009年的双边股权资本流动数据,采用Heckman两阶段模型考察了制度水平对双边股权资本流动的影响。实证研究表明,母国和东道国的制度水平对股权资本投资决策和投资规模均具有显著的促进作用,但母国的制度水平起着决定性作用,一系列的稳健性检验也证实了制度水平对双边股权资本流动的作用是稳健的。此外,本文的研究还发现,传统的直接运用引力模型对双边资本流动的估计是有偏的,而Heckman两阶段估计是无偏估计。     

全球投资者国别风险情绪对跨境股票资本流动的影响

本文分析了全球投资者国别风险情绪对跨境股票资本流动的影响,通过构造一般均衡跨期选择模型,刻画了投资者国别风险情绪负向影响跨境股票净资本流入的理论机理以及投资者风险厌恶程度的调节作用,并基于EPFR全球股票型基金微观数据和由大数据文本分析技术构造的全球投资者国别层面风险情绪指标进行实证检验。结果表明:第一,全球投资者对一国的国别风险情绪上升会推升该国的整体风险溢价水平,降低跨境股票型基金净资本流入,尤其是风险厌恶度较高的被动型、开放式和ETF基金;第二,一国金融市场成熟度上升和汇率弹性增强可以缓解全球投资者国别风险情绪对跨境股票型基金净资本流入的负向影响;第三,在全球风险情绪极端低或者各国股票型基金净资本流入极端高的时期,全球投资者国别风险情绪的影响更为显著。     

Capital Flows,Sterilization, and Macro-Prudential Policy in China

This article estimates the sterilization coefficients of the subcomponents of reserves in China over time with recursive regressions. The results suggest that People’s Bank of China tended to sterilize the more fluctuating components of capital inflows: FDI inflows received little attention, while non-FDI and current account had been heavily sterilized. After including the subcomponents of non-FDI into the empirical model, the results demonstrate that issuing bonds was successful in sterilization intervention till 2007Q2, while the effectiveness of sterilization policies was limited since then, resulting in an increase in monetary supply. The excessive money did not flow into the circulation and had limited effects on stimulating the real economy.     

基础设施REITs发展的国际经验及借鉴

REITs包括基础设施REITs都是在经济亟需刺激政策的背景下,各国政府为了实现经济政策目标而推出的,部分市场甚至由政府直接推动首批REITs上市。从国际市场发展现状看,主要的基础设施REITs市场都实现了良性循环,资本市场为基础设施融资和发展提供了强有力支持。从国际经验看,REITs立法的逻辑起点可以分为两大类,一类是将REITs定位成传递工具,一类是将REITs定位成集合投资工具,对应的免税政策也分别有两种不同逻辑。为促进基础设施REITs有序发展,兼顾投融资双方利益,本文提出了相应的法规政策原则和具体建议,包括如何处理好R E I T s法规与其他法规的关系,金融监管部门和其他政府部门的关系,发行人和投资者的关系,如何充分利用现有的金融市场法规和金融市场结构,以及会计准则调整和投资者保护等。本文还分析了资本弱化结构,建议在公募REITs中予以细化规定。     

跨境资本流动结构变化对中国股票市场的冲击风险研究

随着上海自贸区的快速发展,跨境流动资本呈现新的结构特征。人民币流动规模占比增加,短期资本开始主导跨境资金流的趋势,国内资本市场成为跨境资本流动套利的活跃平台。受此影响,国内股票市场不同板块呈现差异化的波动特征。通过选取代表币种、期限和投向的跨境资本流动结构指标以及上证综合指数、创业板综合指数,基于结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)进行实证研究,发现当前跨境资本流动中,币种结构的变动比期限结构和投向结构对我国股票市场的影响显著。     

新兴市场国家的国际资本流动与双危机模型扩展

本文基于新兴市场国家经济背景下,从国内中央银行和国内投资者、国际投资者三类主体进行不完全信息博弈的角度对双危机理论模型进行了有效扩展,探讨了对国际资本流动进行和不进行数量和税费控制条件下银行危机与货币危机发生所满足的必要条件,从而更深入全面地探讨了国际资本流动与双危机之间的传导机制。以马来西亚的实际数据对扩展模型的合理性和有效性进行了验证,并对模型中的主要参数对均衡结果的不同影响进行了分析,为类似中国的新兴市场国家制定安全有效的货币政策以及防范金融危机提供了思路和政策建议。     

房地产投资信托制度(REITs)风险之法律规制与运营控制

房地产投资信托制度(REITs)中的风险问题,是任何一个研究REITs的理论界或实务界人士都必须回答的问题。在规制REITs风险的方法中,主要分为两种:最直接的处理风险问题的方法是由美国《投资公司法案》控制债务杠杆;而其它法规对REITs风险的规制,则是较为间接的控制风险的方法。伞型合伙(UPREITs)结构的风险,美国财政部和国家税务局IRS的相关法规可对此进行规制。下属合伙(DOWNREITs)结构的风险则可以采用三种运营方式予以控制。     

境外房地产信托投资基金管理框架及其借鉴

本文总结了一些主要发达国家和地区在房地产投资信托(REITs)发展中为保护投资者利益所采取的一系列措施,包括相关法律法规、经营活动限制等。针对我国发展REITs面临的一些困难,本文提出了具体的政策建议。     

英国的非公开权益资本和风险投资

英国是欧洲风险投资和非公开权益资本的发源地。在欧洲国家中,英国的风险投资和非公开权益资本起步最早,发展也最快。从1979年算起,英国风险资本投资额和非公开权益资本增长了100多倍。2005年,在欧洲的风险投资市场上,英国的风险资本总额占欧洲风险投资额的40￣50%,在欧洲是当仁不让的“大哥大”,在世界范围内仅次于美国。本篇文章主要介绍了风险投资(VentureCapital,VC)及非公开权益资本(PrivateEquity,PE)的最新概念和从属关系以及英国的风险投资及非公开权益资本的历史、结构、规模、投资趋势、投资阶段、投资领域、地理特征、知名风险企业、投资表现等,以此从数据和分析的角度使中国的风险投资领域及非公开权益资本领域的从业人员以借鉴、启迪的作用。     

公募REITs支持新型城镇化:机理、问题与对策

基础设施公募RE I Ts是改善城镇化投融资机制、盘活基础设施存量资金、防范化解城镇化债务风险的重要创新。但是,现行制度安排对REITs的税收中性、法律框架、市场流动性等中长期发展因素的考虑存在不足,这可能带来摊薄REITs产品投资收益、加大治理与监管成本、制约市场可持续发展等问题,亦对城镇化区域均衡发展产生不确定影响。建议在结合国外经验和中国国情的基础上,加快推动REITs税收优惠政策落地,研究制定“REITs管理条例”等法律体系,完善二级市场建设和流动性培育,优化基础设施公募REITs支持新型城镇化的空间布局。