惯性或反转策略会提升投资绩效吗?——以开放式基金为例的实证分析

运用面板模型,将交易策略指标纳入Sharpe指数多因素门限模型,分别考察在前期Sharpe指数为正和为负的情况下,惯性和反转交易策略对基金绩效的影响。对2006年第一季度至2010年第三季度中国开放式基金面板数据的分析表明:惯性策略在总体上会对投资绩效产生负面影响,而反转交易策略对投资绩效的影响则始终是不显著的。     

市场状态与证券投资基金动量交易行为研究

在实证检验中国证券投资基金动量交易行为的基础上,将市场分为上涨和下跌两个状态,对比研究了在不同市场状态下基金动量交易行为的差异。研究结果显示,基金总体并不表现为动量交易者。市场上涨时,基金有采用反转交易的倾向但并不显著,市场下跌时,基金没有表现为动量交易者。     

债券型分级基金投资策略研究

本文在分析债券型分级基金的投资特点与交易风险的基础上,结合可变杠杆半开放式债券型分级基金、固定杠杆半开放式债券型分级基金和固定杠杆封闭式债券型分级基金特点为投资者提供了相应的投资策略建设。     

惯性与反转效应的研究综述

近些年,惯性与反转效应的相关研究成为传统金融理论和行为金融理论的一个争论焦点。现在学界对惯性与反转效应的存在多种理论解释,尚未达成一致,但是已形成共识的是惯性和反转效应广泛存在于不同国家、不同市场和不同时间段,而且很多投资者在实际操作中确实使用了惯性和反转策略并获利。因此,对于惯性利润和反转利润来源的深入研究能够为投资者的实际交易起到很大的帮助。本文试图通过对惯性和反转效应相关文献的梳理,旨在找出已有研究的不足,并试图探索新的研究方向。     

封闭式基金与开放式基金对比实证研究

开放式基金和封闭式基金在盈利、选股、择时等能力上差别并不显著。开放式基金更注重短期投资带来的流动性,但并没有获得短期投资所带来的高收益和对风险的有效规避。鉴于我国开放式基金和封闭式基金的发展现状,应建立规范的基金市场和完善证券市场的运作机制,对上市公司的融资行为和分配行为进行规范,以达到集中投资、专家理财、分散风险的目标     

浅议缺乏市场价格条件下的开放式基金净值估算问题

开放式基金有别于封闭式基金最主要的方面之一 ,在于投资人的投资途径以及“变现收回投资”的方式。封闭式基金在完成募集之后 ,新进入的投资与投资的收回主要是通过持有人和新购买者之间的交易来实现的 (增募及清算等情况除外 ) ;而开放式基金则主要是通过投资人与基金管理人之间的“申购与赎回”来进行的 ,投资者交易的主要对象是基金管理人 ,交易的价格是以基金单位资产净值 (已知价或未知价 )为基准进行计算而得出。开放式基金交易模式最重要的一环是交易价格的确定。封闭式基金的交易价格是通过买卖双方“自愿式”的成交而自然实现的 ,因此成交价格对于基金整体运作而言 ,并不十分重要 ;而开放式基金的交易价格是“人为确定”的 ,并且适用于当天该基金所有交易 ,对于这一交易模式的确立及顺利运作有至关重要的影响。一、缺乏市场价格时的估价准确性对开放式基金的影响开放式基金的申购赎回价格高度依赖于基金单位资产净值的估算 ,因此 ,相关法规对开放式基金资产估值问题给予了特别的关注 ,如证监会《开放式证券投资基金试点办法》规定 :“基金单位计价出现错误时 ,基金管理人应当立即公告、予以纠正 ,并采取合理的措施防止损失进一步扩大 ;计价错误偏差...     

封闭式基金与开放式基金区别在哪?

封闭式基金：股权与债券某些权益结合的产物。 开放式基金：股权与存款某些特点的结合。 ⒈封闭式基金：基金规模在发行前已经确定。投资者申购后,在一定的封闭期内（如10年）不能将资金赎回。 开放式基金：基金的规模不固定,基金的申购与赎回均可在每周一次的开放日内进行,因此基金规模有可能无限变大,也可能缩小至基金倒闭。 ⒉封闭式基金：投资者可以采用上市交易买卖封闭式基金。买卖价格随行就市,取决于市场的供求状况。 开放式基金：买卖价格是以基金单位的净资产为基础。无证券上市交易,汇集的资金可全部投资于证券市场。摘自…     

基于风格层面的开放式基金反馈交易行为的实证研究

文章通过结合Sharpe模型的参数构造一个基于风格层面的基金反馈交易检验模型,对我国在2004年之前成立的开放式股票型基金的反馈交易行为进行实证研究,结果发现：基金普遍采取正反馈交易策略,价值型基金比成长型基金具有明显的正反馈交易特征;在熊市时期,债券型基金的正反馈交易特征最为突出;在牛市时期,成长型基金和债券型基金则表现出明显的负反馈交易特征;历史业绩突出的基金更容易在随后时期内采取正反馈交易策略,这种策略在熊市中会恶化业绩,而在牛市中往往会提高其随后的业绩。     

开放式基金与封闭式基金投资价值的比较分析

近年来,我国证券市场的快速发展为证券投资基金的发展创造了条件和空间,证券投资基金已经成为中国资本市场上最重要的机构投资者之一,而开放式基金更将成为中国基金市场上的主格调。本文主要立足于数据和经济理论,结合统计知识,从投资成本、投资收益、投资风险等方面对开放式基金和封闭式基金的投资价值与绩效表现进行比较。研究结果表明:开放式基金在熊市行情中具有更好的表现,而封闭式基金在牛市行情中略胜一筹。开放式基金的波动率远远高于封闭式基金,但其收益率却相对较低。     

我国封闭式基金业绩操纵的实证研究

基金作为主要的机构投资者,其投资行为对市场有着重大影响.本文以我国封闭式基金为例,重点研究基金持有的重仓股和重仓股中低换手率股票的价格操纵现象,通过对我国封闭式基金的重仓股和低换手率股票进行季末超额收益率反转效应检验,表明我国封闭式基金存在显著的业绩操纵现象,而且在第四季度该现象更为明显.本文对投资者选择基金和监管部门规范基金行为具有重要的现实意义和参考价值.     

我国大粮食安全战略的现实选择

粮食安全模式是粮食安全战略的根本保证,我国粮食安全的具体模式应立足于国情,以自力更生为基础,在借鉴国外粮食安全模式基础之上,启用混合型粮食安全模式,将各种有利资源转换为粮食,进而解决我国潜在的粮食数量安全和质量安全威胁.同时,还要适度控制我国工业用粮,进行粮食生产技术创新与组织创新,实施“藏粮于田”与农业生态保护,建立食物质检体系等战略.     

Polymorphism in competitive strategies: Trading stamps

This paper uses the example of trading stamps to examine a model of competitive nonprice marketing strategies. A concept borrowed from ethology, polymorphic equilibrium, is developed and used to explain salient features of trading stamp use by retail firms. The results contribute to an understanding of why virtually identical firms may optimally choose quite different competitive strategies. The paper also demonstrates the possibility of cyclical movements in the proportion of firms that adopt nonprice strategies such as the use of trading stamps.     

Fallout from the Mutual Fund Trading Scandal

In September 2003, several prominent mutual fund companies came under investigation for illegal trading practices. Allegations suggested these funds allowed certain investors to profit from short-term trading schemes at the expense of other investors. Surprisingly, regulatory authorities have known for more than two decades of the potential for such abuses, yet have taken limited steps to correct the problem. We explore investor reaction to the scandal by measuring assets under management, stock returns, and performance. Mutual funds managed by investigated firms show a substantial decline in post-announcement assets under management. These firms also experienced significantly negative announcement-period returns. Finally, we discuss several policy suggestions to prevent future trading abuses and provide direction for future research.     

Investor behavior and volatility of futures market: A theory and empirical study based on the OLG model

Investor trading behaviors are always an important issue in behavioral finance and market supervision. This study examines the relationship between investor behavior and future market volatility. We first introduce a two-period OLG model into the futures market, and develop an investor behavior model based on future contract price. We then extend the model to two scenarios: complete and incomplete information. We provide the equilibrium solution, and develop two hypotheses, which are tested with cuprum tick data in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Empirical results show that the two-period OLG model for future market is consistent with the market situation in China. More specifically, investors with sufficient information such as institutional investors usually adopt the contrarian trading strategy, whereas investors with insufficient information, e.g., individual investors, usually adopt the momentum trading strategy. These findings reveal that investor behaviors in the Chinese futures market are different from those of in the Chinese stock market.     

Contrarians or momentum chasers? Individual investors’ behavior when trading exchange-traded funds

Conducting the first study of momentum impact on households’ exchange-traded fund (ETF) trading behavior, we find that Finnish households are less contrarian when trading benchmark index ETFs than when trading common stocks. Also, their propensity to chase recent positive momentum is higher when purchasing ETFs than when purchasing stocks. As expected, results are stronger for ETF purchases than sales. Our findings are consistent with hypotheses that households are less overconfident trading index ETFs than common stocks, that contrarian behavior is more often rational when trading stocks than when trading ETFs, and that households trade ETFs for the long run.     

Asymmetric Post-Announcement Drift to Good and Bad News: Evidence from Voluntary Trading Disclosures in the Chinese Stock Market

This article investigates the post-announcement drift (PAD) of stock returns in the Chinese stock market. We use a sample of voluntary trading disclosures to test the hypothesis that an asymmetric PAD exists in a market in which managers are more likely to suppress negative news. We show that a pattern of short-term momentum and long-term reversal in returns persists for up to 250 trading days following the announcement of trading statements in the Chinese stock market. This finding is stronger for positive announcements in terms of the magnitude and the variance of stock returns. Our findings are in line with both Shin’s theoretical predictions and the credibility hypothesis, in which disclosure and asset returns are jointly determined and the adoption of a “sanitisation strategy” in information disclosure generates more volatile returns for firms issuing good news. Further, we show that the latter effect is more pronounced for firms which are partially state-owned, suggesting that they potentially receive more government support, a finding which is in line with the hypothesis that the incentive to suppress negative information is related to a country’s legal/judicial system.     

基于时变混合 Copula 模型的配对交易策略

由于金融时间序列数据通常具有动态时变、非对称和非线性相关特征,本文给出了一类权重系数和Copula参数均时变的混合Copula模型。同时基于权重系数和Copu－la参数时变的混合Copula模型,刻画不同频率互联网金融概念股价格序列之间的相关性,构建配对交易策略模型,并与静态混合Copula模型下的策略结果进行比较。实证分析表明：基于时变混合Copula模型的配对交易策略可以获得较高收益; Copula 参数和权重系数均时变的混合Copula模型能捕获更多交易机会,策略表现最好;含有较多成分Copula的混合模型在配对交易策略中并不具有优势;高频率金融市场比相应低频率金融市场的策略盈利更高。     

我国设立开放式基金对证券二级市场的影响分析

2001年是我国证券市场改革的关键一年,因为在加入WTO以后,国外资金将大量涌入我国的证券市场,这必将对我国幼稚的证券市场产生巨大的冲击。鉴于我国目前的投资者近90％都是个人投资者,证券市场监管部门在2000年就多次明确提出要积极培育机构投资者,并将超常规培育机构投资者列入议事日程,基金（开放式投资基金）是我国目前主要的机构投资者。然而,开放式基金的面市必将对二级市场产生重大的影响,这种影响关键在于开放式基金参与各方行为的理性程度,即基金管理人专家理财的理性投资策略、市场上投资者的投资与投机行为、监管部门的监管。