Ownership, Investor Protection and Earnings Expectations

Abstract:  This study examines the interactive influence of corporate ownership, corporate governance and investor protection on the incorporation of current value shocks in the accounting earnings of European companies. This influence is investigated not only by means of the association between current news and current earnings but also with respect to the association of the same news with expected future earnings, and its persistence. Consistent with the contractual explanation of accounting conservatism, it is shown that the accounting behaviour examined is a function of the demand created by shareholders, and that the institutional arrangements in force are of lesser significance in the presence of widely held ownership. On the other hand, greater separation between supervision and management and stronger investor protection are seen to be influential under close ownership, as these are shown to curb aggressive accounting in the form of a persistently lower recognition of bad news in earnings. Evidence is also provided that stricter corporate governance practices in Europe can substitute for weaknesses in investor protection provisions in law.     

The Cost of Equity Capital at the Corporate and Investor Levels Allowing a Rational Expectations Model with Personal Taxations

This paper argues that the conventional definition of the cost of equity at the corporate level is likely to be fundamentally flawed under conditions of personal taxation. A 'dimensionally consistent' definition is developed utilising the pioneering contributions of Auerbach and Elton and Gruber. Consequent benefits are straight-forward expressions for the cost of equity capital at the corporate level (for both retained earnings and new equity) as well as at the investor level (post personal tax) in terms of both the dividend discount and CAPM-type models, which are applicable to classical and imputation tax systems. A fundamental framework is thereby provided which succeeds in illuminating investor pesonal tax liabilities as they might be expected to impact on a firm's investment and related dividend policies.     

Investor activism and takeovers

Recent work documents large positive abnormal returns when a hedge fund announces activist intentions regarding a publicly listed firm. We show that these returns are largely explained by the ability of activists to force target firms into a takeover. For a comprehensive sample of 13D filings by portfolio investors between 1993 and 2006, announcement returns and long-term abnormal returns are high for targets that are ultimately acquired, but not detectably different from zero for firms that remain independent. Firms targeted by activists are more likely than control firms to get acquired. Finally, activist investors’ portfolios perform poorly during a period in which market wide takeover interest declined.     

标准的投资者保护制度和替代性投资者保护制度：一个概念性分析框架

基于在标准的投资者保护制度和替代性投资者保护制度之间做出的区分,本文提出了一个概念性分析框架,并对国有股权的制度安排在中国股票市场发展中的作用进行了初步的解释。标准的投资者保护制度——市场、法律和管制——固然重要,但是对于转轨国家而言,由于缺乏支撑标准的投资者保护制度运转的制度资源,利用替代性的投资者保护制度对于股票市场的早期发展就是至关重要的。     

Investor Sentiment and Corporate Disclosure

This paper investigates how firms react strategically to investor sentiment via their disclosure policies in an attempt to influence the sentiment‐induced biases in expectations. Proxying for sentiment using the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, we show that during low‐sentiment periods, managers increase forecasts to “walk up” current estimates of future earnings over long horizons. In contrast, during periods of high sentiment, managers reduce their long‐horizon forecasting activity. Further, while there is an association between sentiment and the biases in analysts' estimates of future earnings, management disclosures vary with sentiment even after controlling for analyst pessimism, indicating that managers attempt to communicate with investors at large, and not just analysts. Our study provides evidence that firms' long‐horizon disclosure choices reflect managers' desire to maintain optimistic earnings valuations.     

Investor sophistication and risk taking

Using investment policy data of 857 Dutch pension funds during 1999–2006, we develop three indicators of investor sophistication. The indicators show that pension funds’ strategic portfolio choices are often based on coarse and less sophisticated approaches. First, most pension funds round strategic asset allocations to the nearest multiple of 5%, similar to age heaping in demographic and historical studies. Second, many pension funds invest little or nothing in alternative, more complex asset classes, resulting in limited asset diversification. Third, many pension funds favor regional investments and as such do not fully employ the opportunities of international risk diversification. Our indicators are correlated with pension fund size, in line with the expectation that smaller pension funds are generally less sophisticated than large pension funds. Using the indicators for investor sophistication, we show that less sophisticated pension funds tend to opt for investment strategies with less risk.     

投资者特征与盈余公告后的漂移现象

本文以1999～2004年的上市公司为样本，研究了不同类型投资者对盈余公告后漂移（PEAD）的影响。研究发现，对于好消息，盈余公告后基金重仓持有股票的漂移小于非基金重仓持有的股票；但对于坏消息，基金重仓持有股票的漂移要大于非重仓持有股票的漂移。可能的解释是，基金重仓持有的股票如果公布的是好消息，说明与基金预期一致，所以这类股票的漂移比散户投资的利好股票漂移小；如果公布的是坏消息，则说明基金预期错误，此时基金等机构投资者会积极卖出，由于资金量大引起散户投资者跟着卖出相应股票，从而漂移比非基金重仓持有的利坏股票的漂移大。     

Investor Attention and Stock Mispricing

This study examines the relation between investor attention and stock mispricing of accruals in U.S. firms using the Limited Investor Attention Model of Hirshleifer and Teoh ( 2003 ). Consistent with the model's hypothesis that investor attention reduces stock mispricing of accruals, I document three key findings. First, I find a significant and negative correlation between stock mispricing of accruals and analyst following. Second, stock mispricing of accruals is negatively correlated with institutional ownership and, in particular, with the ownership of bank trusts and the ownership of pensions and endowments. Third, stock mispricing of accruals is negatively correlated with Big 4 auditor choice.     

Legal Investor Protection and Takeovers

This paper examines the role of legal investor protection for the efficiency of the market for corporate control when bidders are financially constrained. In the model, stronger legal investor protection increases bidders' outside funding capacity. However, absent effective bidding competition, this does not improve efficiency, as the bid price, and thus bidders' need for funds, increases one‐for‐one with the pledgeable income. In contrast, under effective competition for the target, the increased outside funding capacity improves efficiency by making it less likely that more efficient but less wealthy bidders are outbid by less efficient but wealthier rivals.     

Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing

The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant flux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation . This survey sketches a framework for understanding decision biases, evaluates the a priori arguments and the capital market evidence bearing on the importance of investor psychology for security prices, and reviews recent models.     

Investor Sentiment and Option Prices

This paper examines whether investor sentiment about the stockmarket affects prices of the S&P 500 options. The findingsreveal that the index option volatility smile is steeper (flatter)and the risk-neutral skewness of monthly index return is more(less) negative when market sentiment becomes more bearish (bullish).These significant relations are robust and become stronger whenthere are more impediments to arbitrage in index options. Theycannot be explained by rational perfect-market-based optionpricing models. Changes in investor sentiment help explain timevariation in the slope of index option smile and risk-neutralskewness beyond factors suggested by the current models.     

Investor Sophistication and Voluntary Disclosures

This paper studies voluntary disclosures in a model in which investors probabilistically become informed about whether a firm has received information. The firm's value is established via a first price, sealed bid, common value auction. The paper demonstrates that the threshold level determining whether the firm withholds or discloses information uniformly declines in the probability investors are informed. The paper also shows that, notwithstanding the risk-neutrality of investors, the expected selling price of the firm strictly decreases (increases) in the probability individual investors are informed when that probability is small (large). These results follow from winner's curse effects.     

Investor Sentiment and Pre-IPO Markets

We examine whether irrational behavior among small (retail) investors drives post‐IPO prices. We use prices from the grey market (the when‐issued market that precedes European IPOs) to proxy for small investors' valuations. High grey market prices (indicating overoptimism) are a very good predictor of first‐day aftermarket prices, while low grey market prices (indicating excessive pessimism) are not. Moreover, we find long‐run price reversal only following high grey market prices. This asymmetry occurs because larger (institutional) investors can choose between keeping the shares they are allocated in the IPO, and reselling them when small investors are overoptimistic.     

Investor Sentiment and REIT Returns

Recent advances in the field of behavioral finance have given a fillip to the use of behavioral factors in asset pricing models. This study adds to the understanding of the REIT return generating process by exploring the behavioral impact of investor sentiment on REIT returns. The results show that when investors are optimistic (pessimistic), REIT returns become higher (lower). These findings are robust when conventional control variables are considered. Empirical analysis indicates steady erosion in the importance of the default and term structure interest rate variables previously considered as important determinants of REIT returns. Previous noise trading papers that consider the impact of institutional traders conclude that institutional investors cannot arbitrage away noise trader risk. The results of this paper find an exception in the case of small REITs. Examination of REITs based on size reveals that the return generating process of small REITs differs from that of mid-size and large REITs. Analysis of the return generating process by performance shows high performance REITs are more sensitive to the independent variables in the model as compared to the low and mid performance REITs.     

Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume

The proposition that investors are overconfident about theirvaluation and trading skills can explain high observed tradingvolume. With biased self-attribution, the level of investoroverconfidence and thus trading volume varies with past returns.We test the trading volume predictions of formal overconfidencemodels and find that share turnover is positively related tolagged returns for many months. The relationship holds for bothmarket-wide and individual security turnover, which we interpretas evidence of investor overconfidence and the disposition effect,respectively. Security volume is more responsive to market returnshocks than to security return shocks, and both relationshipsare more pronounced in small-cap stocks and in earlier periodswhere individual investors hold a greater proportion of shares.(JEL G11, G12)     

Managerial Incentives and Corporate Fraud: The Sources of Incentives Matter

Operating performance and stock return results imply that managerswho commit fraud anticipate large stock price declines if theywere to report truthfully, which would cause greater lossesfor managerial stockholdings than for options because of differencesin convexity. Fraud firms have significantly greater incentivesfrom unrestricted stockholdings than control firms do, and unrestrictedstockholdings are their largest incentive source. Our resultsemphasize the importance of the shape and vesting status ofincentive payoffs in providing incentives to commit fraud. Fraudfirms also have characteristics that suggest a lower likelihoodof fraud detection, which implies lower expected costs of fraud.     

Investor protection and the Coasian view

The corporate charters of a sample of Mexican firms show that private firms often significantly enhance the legal protection offered to investors, but public firms rarely do so. We construct a model that endogenizes the degree of investor protection that firms provide, using as a springboard the assumption that legal regimes differ in their ability to enforce precisely filtering contracts that provide protection only in those cases where expropriation can occur. Our model generates predictions about the types of contracts that would be employed and the levels of investor protection that would prevail across different legal regimes in both private and public firms.     

Positive Feedback Trading and Investor Sentiment

This article examines how investor sentiment affects positive feedback trading behavior. By analyzing the daily closing total return of CSI 300 index and its individual returns of stocks, we find that relatively high or low sentiment induces active positive feedback trading. With a specific indicator of sentiment, we explain the microstructure setting of the relationship between positive feedback trading and sentiment. We adopt the classical feedback model from Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) to measure positive feedback trading behavior. By adding sentiment factor to the model, we successfully explain how sentiment influences the behavior of both feedback traders and rational investors. The empirical findings suggest that positive feedback traders are more likely to trade when the prices of most securities move forward together. When the sentiment of feedback traders is at an intermediate level, the feedback trading behavior is insignificant.     

Individual Investor Trading and Stock Returns

This paper investigates the dynamic relation between net individual investor trading and short‐horizon returns for a large cross‐section of NYSE stocks. The evidence indicates that individuals tend to buy stocks following declines in the previous month and sell following price increases. We document positive excess returns in the month following intense buying by individuals and negative excess returns after individuals sell, which we show is distinct from the previously shown past return or volume effects. The patterns we document are consistent with the notion that risk‐averse individuals provide liquidity to meet institutional demand for immediacy.     

Investor confusion and similarly identified securities

This paper extends the analysis of Rashes (2001) to examine the co‐movement of prices for a sample of UK equity securities with similar ticker symbols and names. In contrast to Rashes (2001), we find only limited evidence of price changes that could be attributed to ticker symbol or name confusion. Our results suggest that any such confusion, if it exists at all, is most likely confined to very short time horizons and is not a systematic occurrence for similarly identified securities.