Bank use of sovereign CDS in the Eurozone crisis: Hedging and risk incentives

Using a comprehensive dataset from German banks, we document the usage of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) during the European sovereign debt crisis of 2008–2013. Banks used the sovereign CDS market to extend, rather than hedge, their long exposures to sovereign risk during this period. Lower loan exposure to sovereign risk is associated with greater protection selling in CDS, the effect being weaker when sovereign risk is high. Bank and country risk variables are mostly not associated with protection selling. The findings are driven by the actions of a few non-dealer banks which sold CDS protection aggressively at the onset of the crisis, but started covering their positions at its height while simultaneously shifting their assets towards sovereign bonds and loans. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for derivatives exposure in building a complete picture and understanding fully the economic drivers of the bank-sovereign nexus of risk.     

企业发债和贷款期限的差异化:基于增量法的实证研究

已有文献主要从资产负债表法来实证研究企业负债期限结构的影响因素,本文以我国企业在1998～2008年企业发行的各类债券和银行贷款为研究对象,运用增量法从企业财务特征和债务契约属性等方面对企业增量债务期限的影响因素进行实证研究,采用了GMM计量方法,并通过对比分析筛选出了影响企业发债和贷款期限差异化的关键因素。研究表明:企业规模越大,利润率越高,具备担保,信用评级和授信比率越高,其债务期限越长。企业若选择发债,债务期限会延长,而选择银行贷款则企业债务期限会缩短。     

Credit derivatives and loan pricing

This paper examines the relation between the new markets for credit default swaps (CDS) and banks’ pricing of syndicated loans to US corporates. We find that changes in CDS spreads have a significantly positive coefficient and explain about 25% of subsequent monthly changes in aggregate loan spreads during 2000–2005. Moreover, when compared to traditional explanatory factors, they turn out to be the dominant determinant of loan spreads. In particular, they explain loan rates much better than same rated bonds. This suggests that CDS prices contain, beyond general credit risk, to a substantial extent information relevant for bank lending. We also find that, over time, new information from CDS markets is faster incorporated into loans, but information from other markets is not. Overall, our results indicate that the markets for CDS have gained an important role for banks.     

《公司法》修订与商业银行信贷债权的维护

新修订的《公司法》放宽了对公司设立与出资的管制，规范了公司的关联交易与对外担保行为，引入了法人人格否认制度，强化了对公司中小股东与债权人利益的保护。本文认为，在新《公司法》框架下，公司信用的基调已从静态的资本信用转向动态的资产信用。对此，作为公司债权人的商业银行，应当确立事前、事中和事后的不同措施，认真做好贷款管理和评价工作。商业银行必须关注客户公司内部治理和对外经营的动态变化，并分析这些变化对公司偿债资产的法律影响。在此基础上，商业银行应充分利用新《公司法》及其他相关法律赋予的权利，有效维护信贷债权。     

《公司法》修订与商业银行信贷债权的维护

新修订的《公司法》放宽了对公司设立与出资的管制,规范了公司的关联交易与对外担保行为,引入了法人人格否认制度,强化了对公司中小股东与债权人利益的保护。本文认为,在新《公司法》框架下,公司信用的基调已从静态的资本信用转向动态的资产信用。对此,作为公司债权人的商业银行,应当确立事前、事中和事后的不同措施,认真做好贷款管理和评价工作。商业银行必须关注客户公司内部治理和对外经营的动态变化,并分析这些变化对公司偿债资产的法律影响。在此基础上,商业银行应充分利用新《公司法》及其他相关法律赋予的权利,有效维护信贷债权。     

Large UK Companies and Derivatives

Derivative securities have transformed the way treasurers view financial price risk and have been used to hedge risks that were previously left open. In this paper, we present the results of surveys of treasurers of large UK companies to questions about their derivative use. We examine the extent of derivative use, the reasons for their use, the perceived risks associated with derivatives, what sort of controls are in place to monitor the use of derivatives, and, finally, reporting practices which govern the disclosure of derivative practices. Results of the surveys indicate widespread use of derivatives like swaps, forwards and options. The primary reasons for their use are to manage interest rate and currency risk. There is a rather limited, but growing, use of derivatives to manage commodity and equity risk. Treasurers report that they are somewhat cautious about more exotic types of derivatives, primarily because of concern over the illiquidity of the underlying market for these derivatives. Interestingly, treasurers revealed that they view control and the nature of their counterparty as the main risks in using derivatives. Finally, the use of derivatives is accompanied by significant control mechanisms inside companies, and treasurers are using sophisticated procedures to quantify their derivative exposures before they are reported at board level.     

Credit derivatives and bank credit supply

Credit derivatives are the latest in a series of innovations that have had a significant impact on credit markets. Using a micro data set of individual corporate loans, this paper explores whether use of credit derivatives is associated with an increase in bank credit supply. We find only limited evidence that greater use of credit derivatives is associated with greater supply of bank credit. The strongest effect is for large term loans—newly negotiated loan extensions to large corporate borrowers, with a largely negative impact on (previously negotiated) commitment lending. Even for large term borrowers, increases in the volume of credit are offset by higher spreads. These findings suggest that the benefits of the growth of credit derivatives may be narrow, accruing mainly to large firms that are likely to be “named credits” in these transactions. Finally, use of credit derivatives appears to be complementary to other forms of hedging by banks, though the banks most active in hedging appear to charge more for additional amounts of credit.     

“多言寡行”的环境责任表现能否影响银行信贷获取——基于“言”和“行”双维度的文本分析

基于我国推行绿色信贷的政策背景,本文考察了企业“多言寡行”的环境责任表现能否影响银行的信贷决策。研究发现:(1)从总体来看,“多言寡行”的环境责任表现有助于企业获取更多的银行借款。(2)相比于长期银行借款,“多言寡行”对于短期银行借款的正向影响更为明显。(3)《关于构建绿色金融体系的指导意见》的出台抑制了“多言寡行”对银行借款的正向影响。(4)进一步分析发现,相比于环境责任表现“少言多行”以及“少言寡行”的企业,企业“多言寡行”的环境责任表现对于银行的信贷资源具有显著的正向影响;“多言寡行”对银行借款的正向影响在无背景关联、价值较低以及市场环境更差的企业中更为明显。本文有助于信贷机构认识到绿色信贷政策面临的执行风险,为确保绿色信贷的健康发展提供了新的决策参考。     

Do significant risk warnings in annual reports increase corporate bond credit spreads? Evidence from China

Based on listed companies issuing bonds on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2007 to 2017, this study analyzes the relationship between significant risk warnings in Chinese companies’ annual reports and corporate bond credit spreads. The main findings are as follows. First, in the Chinese market, “substantial warnings of significant risks” can significantly improve corporate bond credit spreads, reflecting the risk-warning effect; second, state-owned property rights weaken this effect, which only pertains to listed companies with poor risk management and low information quality; third, significant risk warnings increase investors’ heterogeneous beliefs, also affecting credit spreads; and fourth, through textual analysis, it is found that the corporate bond credit spread is greater when the disclosed risk factors are more pessimistic and less similar to those of the previous year. The findings of this paper help to enrich the literature on credit spreads and risk disclosure.     

A Markov model for the term structure of credit risk spreads

This article provides a Markov model for the term structureof credit risk spreads. The model is based on Jarrow and Turnbull(1995), with the bankruptcy process following a discrete statespace Markov chain in credit ratings. The parameters of thisprocess are easily estimated using observable data. This modelis useful for pricing and hedging corporate debt with imbeddedoptions, for pricing and hedging OTC derivatives with counterpartyrisk, for pricing and hedging (foreign) government bonds subjectto default risk (e.g., municipal bonds), for pricing and hedgingcredit derivatives, and for risk management.     

Bank lending margins in the euro area: Funding conditions,fragmentation and ECB's policies

In this paper we study the determinants of lending margins paid by euro‐area corporates for their bank loans. Across two separate groups of countries (distressed and non‐distressed) we examine whether lending margins have been affected by structural changes in the banking sector, the credit and liquidity position of banks and the costs of funding in the corporate and sovereign bond markets. The role of ECB policies with respect to narrowing down the fragmentation in the bank lending channel is also investigated through a structural panel VAR model for the period 2003:1 to 2014:12.     

A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian banking sector

This paper proposes a model to conduct macro stress test of credit risk for the banking sector based on scenario analysis. We employ an original bank-level data set that splits bank credit portfolios in 21 granular categories, covering household and corporate loans. The results corroborate the presence of a strong procyclical behavior of credit quality, and show a robust negative relationship between the logistic transformation of non-performing loans (NPLs) and GDP growth, with a lag response of up to three quarters. The results also indicate that the procyclical behavior of loan quality varies across credit types. This is novel in the literature and suggests that banks with larger exposures to highly procyclical credit types and economic sectors would tend to undergo sharper deterioration in the quality of their credit portfolios during an economic downturn. Lack of sufficient portfolio granularity in macro stress testing fails to capture these effects and thus introduces a source of bias that tends to underestimate the tail losses stemming from the riskier banks in a system.     

Hedging bonds subject to credit risk

This paper provides a simple and practical approach to hedging bonds that are subject to credit risk. Three new hedge ratios are derived and tested and the roles of basis risk and diversification is investigated. Empirical tests reveal that basis risk is an important factor in hedging corporate bonds. These tests identify a need for new interest rate derivatives where the underlying asset is subject to credit risk.     

Green credit policy and corporate access to bank loans in China: The role of environmental disclosure and green innovation

This research assesses the effectiveness of China's green credit policy. We explore whether firms with better external environmental disclosure and internal green innovation receive more bank loans because of green credit, and utilize a panel of 1086 listed Chinese manufacturing enterprises from 2012 to 2017 to test our hypotheses. The results suggest that firms with higher environmental disclosure quality do not obtain more loans, and only green innovation promotes access to corporate loans. We show that the underlying cause of this phenomenon is corporate green-washing, which is prevalent in soft environmental disclosure and hinders enterprises from obtaining more loans. Our findings contribute to the literature on green credit policy, corporate green innovation, environmental disclosure, and green-washing, and provide a reference for companies, banks, and governments to make decisions.     

The term structure of credit spreads with jump risk

Default risk analysis is important for valuing corporate bonds, swaps, and credit derivatives and plays a critical role in managing the credit risk of bank loan portfolios. This paper offers a theory to explain the observed empirical regularities on default probabilities, recovery rates, and credit spreads. It incorporates jump risk into the default process. With the jump risk, a firm can default instantaneously because of a sudden drop in its value. As a result, a credit model with the jump risk is able to match the size of credit spreads on corporate bonds and can generate various shapes of yield spread curves and marginal default rate curves, including upward-sloping, downward-sloping, flat, and hump-shaped, even if the firm is currently in a good financial standing. The model also links recovery rates to the firm value at default so that the variation in recovery rates is endogenously generated and the correlation between recovery rates and credit ratings before default reported in Altman [J. Finance 44 (1989) 909] can be justified.     

Does carbon emission of firms matter for Bank loans decision? Evidence from China

In the context of global climate governance, greater carbon emissions of enterprises often result in a higher potential risk of environmental violations. Taking the non-financial companies listed in China from 2008 to 2018 as research samples, this paper empirically examined the impact of firm carbon emission on their acquisition of new bank loans and its mechanism of action. This paper empirically finds that if the carbon emission of an enterprise is higher, it will be granted with less new bank loans. The results remain robust after pairing analysis and instrumental variable analysis. The mechanism analysis shows that corporate credit rating plays a significant moderating role in the relationship between corporate carbon emission and new bank loans. Carbon emission leads to the improvement of earnings management of enterprises and the significant decline in the conservatism and comparability of accounting information, which is likely to be an important channel for the reduction of corporate bank loans. Upon further analysis, we find that the carbon emission of enterprises will not significantly affect the cost of acquiring bank loans, but it will significantly reduce the loan term structure. The cross-sectional analysis shows that the effect of carbon emission on new bank loans is more obvious in state-owned listed enterprises, enterprises with high internal control quality and enterprises with strong environmental law enforcement. The research results of this paper enrich the research on the economic consequences of carbon emission, reveal the implementation effect of green credit policies, provide empirical evidence for bank credit to play a role in green governance, and promote enterprises to actively reduce carbon emission.     

我国企业债券信用评级的因素分析——基于Altman的Z计分模型的实证研究

企业债券的信用评级是企业债券市场快速发展的基石.本文运用Altman的Z模型对我国发债企业的主体信用进行了评级,将其结果与现有企业债券评级结果相对照后,发现存在众多信用评级相背离现象,并对我国企业债券的信用评级提出了政策建议.     

How and why do small firms manage interest rate risk?

Although small firms are particularly sensitive to interest rates and other shocks, empirical work on corporate risk management has focused instead on large public companies. This paper studies fixed-rate and adjustable-rate loans to see how small firms manage their exposure to interest rate risk. Credit-constrained firms are found to match significantly more often with fixed-rate loans, consistent with prior research that shows the supply of credit shrinks during periods of rising interest rates. Banks originate a higher share of adjustable-rate loans than other lenders, ameliorating maturity mismatch and exposure to the lending channel of monetary policy. Time-series patterns in the fixed-rate share are consistent with recent evidence on debt market timing.     

国有公司的信贷优惠:信贷干预还是隐性担保?——基于信用贷款的实证检验

本文主要从信用贷款视角研究我国国有公司是否以及缘何具有信贷优惠。以2003-2005年我国A股上市公司为检验样本进行研究,发现:(1)国有公司的信用贷款比例显著高于民营公司,二者的差异平均大约为9%;(2)当公司高管具有政府部门任职经历时,二者的差异更小;(3)当公司的显性担保价值增大时,二者的差异并未减小。总的来说,本文结果支持我国国有公司的信贷优惠主要源于政府对银行信贷决策的干预,而与隐性担保假说不一致。