The Price Impacts of Open Market Repurchase Trades

Abstract:  This paper analyzes a database of 60,000+ individual repurchase trades from the Toronto Stock Exchange. The average intraday price impact of repurchase trades is negative, since, because of execution rules, 60% are seller-initiated. Prices fall less following repurchase than matched non-repurchase trades—there is an abnormal price impact. We find evidence consistent with two hypotheses: repurchases provide price support, and the market learns that the shares are undervalued. Consistent with the latter, we find that repurchasing companies have superior timing. Share prices show abnormal losses (gains) before (after) the repurchase trades. We find no significant market reaction to the mandatory public disclosure of the trade details.     

The Market Evaluation of Information in Directors' Trades

The purpose of this paper is to examine the propensity, characteristics and performance of directors' trades. Consistent with prior research we show that on average, directors outperform the market. However, we also find that there exist a large number of trades which do not share these abnormal share price returns and consequently have little information content. This has important consequences for market participants who use director trading activity as a signal for their own trading strategies. Using different measures of directors' trades based on trade characteristics, we report that purchases by directors are more informative than sales. In addition, the number of directors trading within a twenty day window and the percentage of the directors' holding that is being traded are both important factors in the abnormal share price performance following the trade.     

Insider Trades and Private Information: The Special Case of Delayed-Disclosure Trades

In certain circumstances, insider trades such as private transactionsbetween executives and their firms could be disclosed afterthe end of the firm's fiscal year, on a Form-5 filing. We findthat insider sales disclosed in such a delayed manner for largefirms are predictive of negative future returns (–6 to–8 percent), as well as lower future annual earnings relativeto analyst forecasts. These results stand in contrast to existingfindings on the uninformativeness of quickly disclosed open-marketinsider sales. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act curtailed the use of Form5 under the presumption that managers used this vehicle opportunistically.Our systematic evidence supports this presumption.     

The Trades of Market Makers: An Empirical Analysis of NYSE Specialists

This paper presents a transaction-level empirical analysis of the trading activities of New York Stock Exchange specialists. The main findings of the analysis are the following. Adjustment lags in inventories vary across stocks, and are in some cases as long as one or two months. Decomposition of specialist trading profits by trading horizon shows that the principal source of these profits is short term. An analysis of the dynamic relations among inventories, signed order flow, and quote changes suggests that trades in which the specialist participates have a higher immediate impact on the quotes than trades with no specialist participation.     

Detecting Information from Directors' Trades: Signal Definition and Variable Size Effects

There have been three empirical studies examining the share price reaction following trades by directors of UK companies (King and Poell, 1988; Pope, Morris and Peel, 1990; and Gregory, Matatko, Tonks and Pukiss, 1994). All three of these UK studies used different definitions of 'buy' and 'sell' signals resulting from the transactions of directors and employ different controls to detect the presence of any 'size effects'. We investigate whether the signal definition explains the different conclusions drawn by these earlier studies, and examine whether or not any observed abnormal returns are explicable by the small companies effect. We also investigate trading strategies based on holding a long portfolio of shares purchased or a short portfolio of shares sold by directors held until the end of the study period or until a 'reserving event' (e.g. a sale following a purchase by director[s] is observed).     

权证产品理论定价与市场定价偏离度分析

通过选取宝钢权证对我国的权证市场进行偏离度静态统计及动态分析,发现市场定价不仅在多个时点大大高于理论定价,而且长期来看其变化趋势也独立于理论定价,理论定价对预测市场定价是没有帮助的,两者的偏离是不稳定的、随机的。市场投机因素是导致这一结果的主要原因。     

Price Impact Asymmetry of Block Trades: An Institutional Trading Explanation

This article develops a theoretical model to explain the permanentprice impact asymmetry between buyer- and seller-initiated blocktrades (the permanent price impact of buys is larger than thatof sells). The model shows how the trading strategy of institutionalportfolio managers creates a difference between the informationcontent of buys and sells. The main implication of the modelis that the history of price performance influences the asymmetry:the longer the run-up in a stock's price, the less the asymmetry.The intensity of institutional trading and the frequency ofinformation events affect the asymmetry differently dependingon recent price performance.     

Anonymity, Adverse Selection, and the Sorting of Interdealer Trades

This article uses unique data from the London Stock Exchangeto examine how trader anonymity and market liquidity affectdealers' decisions about where to place interdealer trades.During our sample period, dealers could trade with each otherin the direct, nonanonymous public market or use one of fouranonymous brokered trading systems. Surprisingly, we find thatadverse selection is less prevalent in the anonymous brokeredmarkets. We show that this pattern can be explained by the waydealers "price" the adverse selection risk inherent in tradingwith other dealers. We also relate our findings to recent changesin dealer markets.     

Tweets and Trades: the Information Content of Stock Microblogs

Microblogging forums (e.g., Twitter) have become a vibrant online platform for exchanging stock‐related information. Using methods from computational linguistics, we analyse roughly 250,000 stock‐related messages (so‐called tweets) on a daily basis. We find an association between tweet sentiment and stock returns, message volume and trading volume, as well as disagreement and volatility. In contrast to previous related research, we also analyse the mechanism leading to an efficient aggregation of information in microblogging forums. Our results demonstrate that users providing above average investment advice are retweeted (i.e., quoted) more often and have more followers, which amplifies their share of voice.     

做市商及其定价分析

做市商制度不同于竞价交易制度，其显著特点是做市商同时进行显性的买卖双向报价并按其主动报出的价格进行交易。做市商在报价时必须考虑自己的做市成本，特别是存货成本和信息成本，从而便产生了理论上的存货定模型和信息定价模型。随着证券市场的不断发展和完善，我国也势必推行做市商制度，因此有必要研究通过各种途径降低做市商的做市成本，以维持正常报价和整个证券市场的秩序化。     

The Market for Corporate Control and the Agency Paradigm

The paper analyzes the role of agency driven takeover activity.The analysis shows that takeovers can play an important rolein reducing agency costs even though the gains from the corporaterestructuring that follows the takeovers are zero, which countersexisting models of agency driven takeover activity. The modelcan therefore form the basis for deriving empirical predictionswhich discriminate between the "agency paradigm" and the "corporaterestructuring paradigm" of takeover activity. Negative post-mergerperformance (Agrawal et al., 1992), which is inconsistent withcorporate restructuring is consistent with this model, and thattakeover target's investment levels are below or at the average(Servaes 1994), which is inconsistent with the free cash flowtheory is also consistent with this model. JEL numbers: G14,G31, G32, G34.     

The Market for Corporate Control and the Agency Paradigm

The paper analyzes the role of agency driven takeover activity. The analysis shows that takeovers can play an important role in reducing agency costs even though the gains from the corporate restructuring that follows the takeovers are zero, which counters existing models of agency driven takeover activity. The model can therefore form the basis for deriving empirical predictions which discriminate between the agency paradigm and the corporate restructuring paradigm of takeover activity. Negative post-merger performance (Agrawal et al., 1992), which is inconsistent with corporate restructuring is consistent with this model, and that takeover targets' investment levels are below or at the average (Servaes 1994), which is inconsistent with the free cash flow theory is also consistent with this model.     

The Market for New Issues: Impact of Offering Price on Price Support and Underpricing

Previous studies have shown that the pattern of first day returns to initialpublic offerings is consistent with the hypotheses of underpricing and price support. We examine two different periods, 1975–1984 and 1996–2002, and find that in each case the measures of price support and underpricing are substantially affected by the initial public offerings' beginning price. During the period 1975–1984, the mean and standard deviation of returns to the price supported group are nearly always zero regardless of price, whileg the mean of the returns to the underpriced group is smile-shaped: high for low-priced and high-priced stocks but lower for stocks offered at intermediate prices. The patterns are different in the most recent data: the mean and standard deviation of both the price supported and underpriced groups are smile-shaped. For the lowest priced stocks, the measures in the later period mirror those for the 1975–1984 period, but for more expensive stocks the measures are substantially higher. The results apply to the first day returns of both firm commitment and best efforts offerings. Once price is taken into account, other than the difference in the probability of price support, the differences among offering types seem to be of secondary importance in explaining first day returns. JEL Classification: 1, G12, G24     

非对称信息对资本市场高频价格变动的影响

运用信息非对称与高频价格运动模型的分析结果表明:中国证券市场的交易频率对价格变化状态具有显著的影响.知情交易者为了保持获得的信息优势,往往选择提交积极订单以迅速交易.在知情交易者比重较大的时候,市场交易频繁,此时买卖价差较大,波动剧烈;反之,当交易间隔长时,意味着未知情交易者比重大,此时买卖价差较小,波动较小.交易间隔短意味着市场存在消息驱动,可能是好消息也可能是坏消息.好消息引起价格上涨的概率和坏消息引起价格下跌的概率具有对称性.     

Price Effects of Preferential Market Access: Caribbean Basin Initiative and the Apparel Sector

Preferential trade arrangements should be evaluated by theireffect on prices rather than by their effect on the total valueof trade. This point is emphasized in the theoretical literaturebut rarely implemented empirically. This article analyzes theU.S. Caribbean Basin Initiative’s (CBI’s) impacton the prices received by eligible apparel exporters. The CBI’sapparel preferences are the most important and heavily usedunilateral preferences because of high trade barriers imposedon exports from the rest of the world. A fixed-effects generalizedleast squares (GLS) estimation is used to isolate the effectsof other factors (such as quality, exchange rates, and transactioncosts) and to identify the effects of tariff preferences. CBIexporters capture only about two-thirds of their preferencemargin despite the high degree of competition among importers.This translates into a 9 percent increase in the relative pricesthey receive, with some variance across countries and years.Countries specializing in higher value items capture more ofthe preference margin, and the implementation of the North AmericanFree Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has a negative effect. RemovingMultifibre Arrangement quotas significantly lowers the benefitsof CBI preferences.     

Agency, Bid Resistance and the Market for Corporate Control

In this paper we investigate the effects of post-bid defence activity for a sample of takeover bids in the UK. We find that most of the defences investigated promote the interests of target managers by significantly lowering the probability of bid success. We also find that most of the defences promote the interests of shareholders by increasing wealth gains by an amount that varies between 9% and 14%. These results suggest that bid resistance is to the mutual benefit of the managers and shareholders of target firms. This conclusion is in line with recent developments in agency theory.     

Corporate Governance and the Information Content of Insider Trades

Most corporate governance research focuses on the behavior of chief executive officers, board members, institutional shareholders, and other similar parties. Little research focuses on the impact of executives whose primary responsibility is to enforce and shape corporate governance inside the firm. This study examines the role of the general counsel (GC) in mitigating informed trading by corporate insiders. We find that insider trading profits and the predictive ability of insider trades for future operating performance are generally higher when insiders trade within firm‐imposed restricted trade windows. However, when GC approval is required to execute a trade, insiders’ trading profits and the predictive ability of insider trades for future operating performance are substantively lower. Thus, when given the authority, it appears the GC can effectively limit the extent to which corporate insiders use their private information to extract rents from shareholders.     

边缘信贷市场开发:银行小企业贷款专营个案

信息不对称和抵押担保难一直是困扰中小企业融资问题的瓶颈.实践表明,近年来日益涌现和增多的银行小企业贷款专营机构进行了诸多信贷技术和营销模式等方面的有益探索,有效解决了小企业以及边缘群体客户的融资难问题,演绎着中国信贷市场结构和信贷制度的某种改良.     

基于主成分分析的股票收盘价组合预测方法

本文构造了隐马尔可夫模型、CNN、LSTM、支持向量机的组合算法,旨在寻求股票收盘价精准预测的算法。在处理缺失值和异常值的过程中,本文使用三次样条插值法填充了缺失值,使用DBSCAN聚类的方法删除了异常值。考虑到不同的因素指标对下一交易日收盘价的影响程度不同,本文采用灰色关联判别分析其关联度,剔除了关联度小于0.9的指标,避免了数据冗余,提高了运算效率。本文使用中信证券和上证指数的数据实证研究后发现,单独预测模型并不能很好地预测收盘价的涨跌。为此,本文使用主成分分析来确定四种方法的权值,最终得出组合预测股票涨跌的比例达到95.65%和94.26%。