国内大型保险集团股权配置偏好研究

在当前低利率环境下,高收益固收类资产缺乏,而保险负债端的资金成本尚未显著下降,保险公司资产配置压力巨大:中小保险企业面临利差损失风险,大型保险集团面临再投资风险;同时,保监会自2010年放开保险投资股票的限制,险资股票投资规模不断增长,保险集团成为资本市场重要的机构投资者.本文分析国寿、新华、太保和平安四大集团权益性股权投资配置的特点,为保险公司下一步股权配置提出建议.     

险资举牌上市公司的动因及风险分析

伴随着"资产配置荒",蓝筹股成为险资投资的主要对象,继2015年开始的险资"野蛮式"投资后,保监会采取一系列措施规范保险资金投资股权,叫停了一系列高收益的万能险产品。但纵观国外保险市场的发展,对于万能险的正确引导能够对资本市场和实体经济起积极作用。因此,探究以万能险为主要资金来源的保险资金举牌上市公司为何造成资本市场波动至关重要。本文从险资举牌的动因入手,分析险资举牌给资本市场带来的风险。     

险资在资本市场频举牌的风险及对策研究

随着“资产配置荒”时代的到来，当前资本市场低估值、高股息率的蓝筹股成了险资抢筹的对象。继安邦系的狂澜席卷民生银行、金地集团、金融街，国寿、人保、泰康人寿、新华人寿大举进军医疗领域，阳光保险、天安财险、华夏人寿逐鹿房地产市场之后，宝能系的前海人寿在2015年底更是声势浩大的抢筹万科A，引起了投资人对大股东股权之争的沸议。本文在分析了资本市场进攻的路径及相关的投资逻辑后，就险资举牌的风险等问题进行深入的探讨，提出相关的风险应对之策。     

偿二代与资产负债匹配约束下寿险公司最优资产配置

保险公司资产配置需要同时考虑资产负债匹配和风险-收益均衡.本文在偿二代对保险资产负债匹配的隐性要求和保险资产负债管理监管规则对资产负债匹配的显性要求下,考察了资本占用和久期匹配约束下的险资投资策略,研究了保险公司的最优资产配置问题.结果 显示:负债久期较长的寿险公司很难同时满足偿二代资本要求和资产负债久期匹配要求;保险...     

权益投资转型“困惑”

<正>各资管机构配置权益资产正面临“成长的烦恼”。银行理财增配权益资产,积极中透着谨慎;权益类公募基金期待更多差异化和理性化产品;险企在配置权益资产时,必须拆解“长钱短配”问题。资管机构的这些“困惑”需要在发展中求解。尽管各资管机构都纷纷布局权益投资,但从当下表现来看,机构配置权益资产面临的困惑着实不小。     

其他

险资投资股票上限升至20％ 8月5日．中国保监会正式公布《保险资金运用管理暂行办法》．险资将被允许投资无担保债、不动产、未上市股权等新投资领域,但衍生品交易被严格限制,其运用仅限于对冲风险,不得用于投机与放大交易。     

“险资举牌”的市场风险效应分析——基于DID模型的实验证据

保险公司是资本市场的重要机构投资者,“险资举牌”引起了市场的广泛关注。本文基于DID模型,以沪深两市A股市场的上市公司为研究样本,研究“险资举牌”与资本市场风险之间的关系。研究发现:“险资举牌”能够有效降低市场的风险,原因可能是保险公司具备较高的信息管理和风险管理能力;通过对换手率分组检验后发现,对于换手率高低不同的公司,“险资举牌”降低市场风险的效应没有明显差异。     

资产驱动负债:好风借力正当时

"在新的经济常态下,保险资金的配置和资产负债新的发展,都需要应时随势、更新观念,研究新模式,配置新产品,才能满足保险资金配置的新常态,实现资产和负债的最佳配置。"保险公司的资金来源于保单和相关保险资产管理产品的销售,其中对于寿险公司来说,由于保障型保单的期限长、分期缴纳,其资金具有负债久期长、规模较大的特点,而且由于是保障型资金,险资对于投资对象与交易结构的安全性要求很高。由于对于安全性的强调,险资运用的三项原则依次为:安全性、流动性、收益性。也是基于这个原则,     

我国寿险公司资产配置研究

本文研究寿险公司的最优资产配置问题。与以往研究不同,本文基于寿险公司收益率分布的实证考察,结合法律法规对寿险资产投资的限制,建立寿险公司资产配置模型。首先建立保险公司的收益模型,以及投资比例和在险价值模型。为了完成对目标函数的刻画,利用水晶球软件对风险资产收益率序列进行分布匹配测试,分析收益率序列分布假设;最后,利用MATLAB优化软件包计算中国人寿的最优资产比例,并与其实际配置进行了比较分析。     

后疫情时代险资运营长效机制探索——缓解资产负债管理矛盾

疫情影响下,保险的作用再次成为社会各界关注的焦点,保险资金也因此迎来了全新增量发展阶段.然而,市场的变化改变着资产管理端的运营环境,在可能出现的长期低利率环境下,险资的投资标的、资产净值、风险管理等方面都面临着不小的调整,一旦发展增速长期低于资金积累速度,或将引发险资整体投资回报率下跌,甚至对保险公司的长期运营产生重大影响.因此,如何在后疫情时代,跟随市场需求调整险资运营机制,是当下诸多保险企业面临的共同难题.     

Financial Distress in Australian General Insurers

We develop and test a statistical model to identify Australian general insurers experiencing financial distress over the 1999–2001 period. Using a logit model and two measures of financial distress we are able to predict, with reasonable confidence, the insurers more likely to be distressed. They are generally small and have low return on assets and cession ratios. Relative to holdings of liquid assets they have high levels of property and reinsurance assets, and low levels of equity holdings. They also write more overseas business, and less motor insurance and long‐tailed insurance lines, relative to fire and household insurance.     

Aktienanlage für Lebensversicherer unter Solvency II

Life insurance companies are among the largest institutional investors. As part of their investment policy they are subject to special legal requirements. In particular the calculation of the solvency capital that has to be deposited for the market risk has changed under Solvency II. A widely spread thesis on this topic is that investments in equity have become unprofitable for life insurers due to solvency capital requirements – compared to previous periods of high equity ratios of temporally over 25%. Therefore insurers might have dropped their average stock quotas to below 5%.The intention of the present study is to analyze whether the capital requirements for the equity investments under Solvency II are a hurdle to achieve a reasonable profitability or – opposite to that – whether the equity investments are a suitable investment to provide an acceptable return on assets. For this purpose the solvency capital requirements of the equity investment under Solvency I considering the BaFin stress test are compared with the new solvency capital requirements under Solvency II including the symmetric adjustment factor (SA). Furthermore the diversification effects are taken into account; they are analyzed on the basis of the SFCR reports of the life insurance companies first published in 2017. As a result the risk capital requirements for equity investments under Solvency II have been reduced to more than 50% compared to prior solvency requirements and depending on the observed scenarios. Whilst Solvency I required an underlying risk capital of 31% at the end of 2017, Solvency II requires only 13.56% following the standard model and after aggregating the risk-mitigating effects in the group scenario. This effect results in a surplus of 7.2%, considering industry-standard capital costs for the underlying solvency capital and an average stock market return of 8% per annum. Consequently the equity investment is suitable to increase the profitability of the investments of German life insurance companies especially in the environment of low interest rates in the capital market for fixed income titles.     

基于DFA方法的中国财险业盈利能力分析

我国财险业在过去十年问发展迅速,但保费收入的增加并没有显著提高财险公司的盈利能力。如何提高企业盈利能力,优化经营效率的提高是财险业持续健康发展的根本。本文尝试建立我国财险行业经营活动的动态财务分析模型,运用Crystal ball软件模拟了未来五年财险行业净利润相关财务指标的变化趋势。本文的实证研究表明股权投资、基金投...     

Effects of Corporate Diversification: Evidence From the Property–Liability Insurance Industry

Using a sample of property–liability insurers over the period 1995–2004, we develop and test a model that explains performance as a function of line‐of‐business diversification and other correlates. Our results indicate that undiversified insurers consistently outperform diversified insurers. In terms of accounting performance, we find a diversification penalty of at least 1 percent of return on assets or 2 percent of return on equity. These findings are robust to corrections for potential endogeneity bias, alternative risk measures, alternative diversification measures, and an alternative estimation technique. Using a market‐based performance measure (Tobin's Q) we find that the market applies a significant discount to diversified insurers. The existence of a diversification penalty (and diversification discount) provides strong support for the strategic focus hypothesis. We also find that insurance groups underperform unaffiliated insurers and that stock insurers outperform mutuals.     

Life Insurance Liabilities at Market Value: An Analysis of Insolvency Risk, Bonus Policy, and Regulatory Intervention Rules in a Barrier Option Framework

This article takes a contingent claim approach to the market valuation of equity and liabilities in life insurance companies. A model is presented that explicitly takes into account the following: (i) the holders of life insurance contracts (LICs) have the first claim on the company's assets, whereas equity holders have limited liability; (ii) interest rate guarantees are common elements of LICs; and (iii) LICs according to the so‐called contribution principle are entitled to receive a fair share of any investment surplus. Furthermore, a regulatory mechanism in the form of an intervention rule is built into the model. This mechanism is shown to significantly reduce the insolvency risk of the issued contracts, and it implies that the various claims on the company's assets become more exotic and obtain barrier option properties. Closed valuation formulas are nevertheless derived. Finally, some representative numerical examples illustrate how the model can be used to establish the set of initially fair contracts and to determine the market values of contracts after their inception.     

保险公司次级债风险及监管研究

保险公司通过发行次级债,一方面可有效提升其偿付能力充足率,增强投资能力.另一方面,作为一条收益率较高的投资渠道,保险公司通过购买其他公司发行的次级债,可以提高投资收益率.本文通过数学建模,考虑次级债的风险情况,并基于研究结果指出目前保险公司次级债监管存在的不足,并给出了相关监管建议.     

Equity Risk and the Labor Stock: The Case of Union Contracts

This paper investigates the role of the stock of unionized labor in determining equity investment risk. I estimate a labor stock measure based on expected compensation costs, and use the ratio of labor stock to total assets as a risk proxy. At the median, the labor stock is comparable in magnitude to total assets. Regression estimates show the associations between labor-based risk proxies and equity market risk measures are both economically and statistically significant. In addition, the labor-based measures provide risk information over and above information contained in standard risk proxies such as financial and operating leverage.     

Corporate Hedging in the Insurance Industry

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the extent to which insurance companies utilize financial derivatives contracts in the management of risks The data set we employ allows us to observe the universe of individual insurer transactions for a class of contracts, namely, those normally thought of as off-balance-sheet (OBS) We provide information on the number of insurers using various types of derivatives contracts and the volume of transactions in terms of notional amounts and the number of counterparties. Life insurers are most active in interest rate and foreign exchange derivatives, while property/casualty insurers tend to be active in trading equity option and foreign exchange contracts Using a multivariate probtt analysis, we explore the factors that potentially influence the existence of OBS activities. We also investigate questions relating to whether certain subsets of OBS transactions (for example, exchange traded) are related to such things as interest rate risk measures, organizational form and other characteristics that may discriminate between desired risk/return profiles across a cross-section of insurers. We find evidence consistent with the use of derivatives by insurers to hedge risks posed by guaranteed investment contracts (GICs), coilater-alized mortgage obligations (CMOs), and other sources of financial risk     

Estimating the Cost of Equity for Property-Liability Insurance Companies

Due to the highly skewed and heavy‐tailed distributions associated with the insurance claims process, we evaluate the Rubinstein‐Leland (RL) model for its ability to improve the cost of equity estimates of insurance companies because of its distribution‐free feature. Our analyses show that there is as large as a 94‐basis‐point difference in the estimated cost of insurance equity between the RL model and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) for the sample of property‐liability insurers with more severe departures from normality. In addition, consistent with our hypotheses, significant differences in the market risk estimates are found for insurers with return distributions that are asymmetrically distributed, and for small insurers. Third, we find significant performance improvements from using the RL model by showing smaller values of excess return of the expected return of the portfolio to the model return for a portfolio of insurers with returns that are more skewed and for a portfolio of small insurers. Finally, our panel data analysis shows the differences in the market risk estimates are significantly influenced by firm size, degree of leverage, and degree of asymmetry. The implication is that insurers should use the RL model rather than the CAPM to estimate its cost of capital if the insurer is small (assets size is less than $2,291 million), and/or its returns are not symmetrical (the value of skewness is greater than 0.509 or less than ?0.509).     

An analysis of risk-taking behavior for public defined benefit pension plans

This paper presents the first comprehensive study on the determinants of public pension fund investment risk and reports several new important findings. Unlike private pension plans, public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in the previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets to equity and have higher betas. There also appears to be a herding effect in that CalPERS equity allocation or beta is mimicked by other pension funds. Finally, our results suggest that government accounting standards strongly affect pension fund risk, as higher return assumptions (used to discount pension liabilities) are associated with higher equity allocation and portfolio beta.