对盈利质量的需求与中国资本市场的基本面分析

It was reported that Chinese fund managers are patiently planning for the long-term with expectations that China‘s market conditions will improve, recognizing that regulators continue to take steps to improve corporate transparency. This paper discusses the relevance of high quality publicly available earnings information, how accounting standards influence the quality of reported earnings, and how capital market participants act as monitoring forces for earnings quality. Using the U.S. market as a benchmark, this paper considers earnings quality characteristics and monitoring forces in the context of the Chinese market. My overarching premise is that high quality analysis of high quality accounting information is crucial for the efficient flow of resources through a capital market. Thus it is instrumental to the growth of China‘s financial market and its economy. To this end, the paper summarizes potential impediments to high quality earnings and high quality analysis in China.     

Is China up to the Test？ A Review of Theories and Priorities for Education Investment for a Modern China

This paper reviews the key theories relating to the role of education in economic development and social change and how education, as a critical component of total factor productivity, contributes to sustained economic growth. It examines how China ＂s education policy reflects the country＇s unique dual economy. Focusing on the post-reform period, the paper contends that while progress has been made, there are risks to China＇s future growth prospects from failing to reap the benefits of sound education policy. It argues that if the Chinese education system is to continue to be a driver of rather than a drain on economic growth, and if China is to successfully manage its transition towards more inclusive, sustainable and equitable growth, reforms will be needed to improve the quality of education at all levels and to create an environment in which China＇s extensive human capital is duly recognized and respected. Crucially, the education system should be transformed to ensure it promotes a comprehensive range of human capabilities, including those that go beyond the part humans play in augmenting production possibilities.     

Enhancing direct regional agro-aqua tourism entrepreneurial marketing by farmers＇ market or community supported agriculture in small and medium agro marketing enterprises in Malaysia

The purpose of this study is attempting to examine the feasibility application of the concept of enhancing the Direct Regional Agriculture, Aquaculture and Tourism Entrepreneurial Marketing （DRAATEM） and the Small and Medium Agro Marketing Enterprises （SMAMEs） in Malaysia. This collaborative marketing concept will solve the local agro-aqua and tourism fraternities＇ plight where they are constantly preyed by the marketing scavengers or middleman and the possibility of entrepreneurial ventures by the farmers themselves. The methodology used is to determine the feasibility of Direct Regional Agro-Aqua and Tourism Entrepreneurial Marketing （DRAATEM） in SMAMEs that comprising local farmers in agriculture, aquaculture and its association, Ministry of Agriculture （agencies including district agriculture department, irrigation department, FAMA） and Tourism Industry （local tourist agencies and operator）. Local agro-aqua farmers＇ demographic factors （gender, race, academic level, knowledge and experiences of agro and aqua） will also examine to determine the feasibility of Direct Regional Agro Aqua Tourism Entrepreneurial Marketing concept. This study found that, there is a significant difference among factors stated with the enhancing of Direct Regional Agro Aqua Tourism Marketing Entrepreneurial concept in the Small and Medium Agro Aqua Tourism Marketing Enterprise management. The initiatives and eagerness to be successful in this concept depend on the inter-relatedness and collaborative of the tri-party of agro-aqua and tourism fraternities which constitute to the improving of their income, livelihood and generate national economy. In addition, the leadership quality of local farmer＇s cooperative, networking facility and agro-aqua knowledge are another three essential factors found to be the strong fundamental of improving the income and livelihood of local farmers. The implication of this study is upgrading of farmers income and livelihood minus the role of middleman by enhancing Direct Regional Agro-Aqua Tourism Entrepreneurial Marketing concept which is a pivotal role in managing agro sector effectively. This could contribute since agriculture is considered as the third engine of growth in the Malaysian economy. The devised models could be used to achieve the goal. As well as to provide further groundwork to assist existing and would be agro managers; entrepreneurs or agro-agencies to upgrade farmers＇ income and generate country＇s economy by enhancing Direct Regional Agro-Aqua Tourism Entrepreneurial Marketing （DRAATEM） concept in Small and Medium Agro Marketing Enterprises （SMAMEs）.     

The Game Analysis on Problems of Income Disparity and Social Stability in China

This paper analyses problems of Chinese income disparity and social stability through the game theory. Based on the utility function considering fairness, it analyses that the social low-income population＇s sensitive degree of income disparity has effect on their decision. And by the way of replacing the discount rate in repeated game by the income growth rate, it analyzes the condition that the social low income population takes the non-rational battle strategy departure from sub-game perfect equilibrium in dynamic game, which are decided by sensitive degree of income disparity, income growth rate and different expected incomes that social estates take the different strategies ）under the current system. At last, it gives some suggestions for this problem.     

Resilient and Inclusive Prosperity within Planetary Boundaries

The current model of economic growth generated unprecedented increases in human wealth and prosperity during the 19th and 2Oth centuries. The main mechanisms have been the rapid pace of technological and social innovation, human capital accumulation, and the conversion of resources and natural capital into more valuable forms of produced capital. However, there is evidence emerging that this model may be approaching environmental limits and planetary boundaries, and that the conversion of natural capital needs to slow down rapidly and then be reversed Some commentators have asserted that in order for this to occur, we will need to stop growing altogether and, instead, seek prosperity without growth. Others argue that environmental concerns are low-priority luxuries to be contemplated once global growth has properly returned to levels observed prior to the 2008 financial crisis. A third group argues that there is no trade-off and, instead,, promotes green growth： the （politically appealing） idea is that we can simultaneously grow and address our environmental problems. This paper provides a critical perspective on this debate and suggests that asubstantial researc＇h agenda is required to come to grips with these challenges. One place to start is with the relevant metrics： measures of per-capitawealth, and, eventually, quantitative measures of prosperity, alongside a dashboard of other sustainability indicators. A public andpoliticalfocus on wealth （a stock）, and its annual changes, could realistically complement the current focus on market-based gross output as measured by GDP （a flow）. This could have important policy implications, but deeper changes to governance and business models will be required.     

The viable measure for hospitals？ --Healthcare expenditure forecasting under the global budget system

After the implementation of the global budget system, hospitals need to negotiate individual＇s healthcare budget in order to face the uncertainty of income and cost control. The major contribution of this study is to predict the increase of the inpatient healthcare expenditure using ARIMA model under the global budgets system to establish a better allocation rule for healthcare expenditure budget during the negotiation with the Bureau of National Health Insurance. The healthcare expenditure prediction model proposed in this paper will serve as a justification for hospitals＇ negotiation. Although Taiwan has abundant experiences implementing national health insurance, there are still a limited number of literatures concerning economic significance of the budget allocation rule. This paper intends to fulfill this gap. We find that as the individual healthcare expenditure increases, the number of physicians does not function as a bargaining chip. However, there are significant differences in the increase rate and quality of healthcare within the scope of insurance coverage and the increase rate of healthcare for healthy insured. The findings in this paper can serve as policy references in hospital management.     

Regional convergence and migration： The case of Mongolia 1989-2004

This paper investigates the convergence of GDP per capita across Mongolia＇s twenty-two aimags and five regions. According to international and domestic surveys, one third of the Mongolian population is living under the poverty line. Specifically, poverty is deeper in rural areas than in urban areas. Thus, one main objective of economic growth should be reducing the cross-regional income differences and maintaining real long-run per capita income growth. However, in Mongolia there is almost no research on regional economic development and regional income disparities. It is the first time that the speed of convergence to the steady state has been estimated, using a Mongolian cross-regional data set （1989-2004）. The results show that there is convergence across all Mongolian aimags and regions. The speed of convergence towards the steady state position is 3 percent in the Solow model and 4.3 percent in the Ramsey model. That is substantially higher than other convergence studies. The study also finds that migration has played an important role in the evolution of regional disparities.     

Multiple Forces Driving China＇s Economic Development： A New Analytic Framework

Based on economic growth theory and the World Bank's analytical framework relating to the quality of growth, the present paper constructs a framework that encompasses physical, international, human, natural and knowledge capital to synthetically interpret economic development. After defining the five types of capital and total capital, we analyze the dynamic changes of these types of capital in China and in other countries. The results show that since China's reform and opening up, knowledge, international, human and physical capital have grown rapidly, with speeds of growth higher than that of economic growth. As the five types of capital have all increased at varying paces, the savings level of total capital in China has quadrupled in 25 years and overtook that of the USA in the 1990s. The changes in the five types of capital and total capital reveal that there are progressively multiple driving forces behind China's rapid economic development. Implications for China's long-term economic development are thereby raised.     

Cost Distortions and Structural Imbalances in China

This paper attempts to explain the fundamental cause of China＇s growing imbalanee problems. Economic data confirm that the key structural imbalance problems, such as overinvestment, large current account surpluses, low consumption share of GDP and income inequality, have all deteriorated over the past few years, despite continuous policy efforts to correct these problems. We argue that the key determining factor is repressed factor cost, which is associated with heavily distorted markets for labor, capital, land, resources and the environment. These are like implicit subsidies for producers, investors and exporters. They boost growth and, at the same time, lift investment and exports. Previous policy efforts have focused more on administrative measures, which have not been sustainable. Therefore, a more fundamental solution to the imbalance problem lies in completing market-oriented re forms for production factors and allowing free markets to determine prices of labor, capital, land and resources.     

Rising Inequality in China and the Move to a Balanced Economy

China faces serious external(i.e.trade) and internal(i.e.structural) imbalances.Both are related to income inequality,reduction of which will help to increase domestic demand.This paper discusses how income inequality has evolved over time.This is followed by an exploration of the consequences of high inequality.Driving forces underlying the rising inequality are analyzed before providing concrete policy recommendations.It is found that inequality declined in the early period of reform,until the mid to late 1980s,and then began a rising trend up to 2010.Major determinants of inequality include:location,institutional and policy factors,trade and globalization,and education inequality and human capital gaps along rural-urban and spatial divisions.To achieve a balanced economy and a harmonious society,development policies in China must shift from emphasizing growth to prioritizing equality.In addition,government interventions can target rural-urban disparity through rapid urbanization,and tackle regional inequality by developing financial markets, ensuring progressive allocation of fiscal resources,promoting trade and foreign direct investment in inland China,creating more formal jobs and supporting the service sector.     

Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Sterilizations in China

Since 2003, China has been facing a trilemma of determining how to maintain independent monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility simultaneously, while facing persistent and substantial international capital flows. The present paper is an empirical evaluation of the effectiveness of China＇s sterilizations and capital mobility regulations, measured by sterilization and offset coefficients, respectively, using monthly data between mid-1999 and March 2009. We find that the effectiveness of China＇s sterilizations is almost perfect in terms of the monetary base, but not in terms of M2, and that China＇s capital controls still work but are not quite effective. Recursive estimation reveals that increasing mobility of capital flows and decreasing effectiveness of sterilizations might undercut China＇s ability to maintain monetary autonomy and domestic currency stability simultaneously. To solve the trilemma smoothly, China＇s monetary authority should continue to relax the management of the exchange rate, and take further steps towards deregulation of capital outflows.     

Changing Engines of Growth in China： From Exports, FDI and Marketization to Innovation and Exports

This paper investigates the changing sources of growth in post-reform China. Using crossprovince regressions, this paper finds that, in earlier periods, exports, foreign direct investment and marketization were significantly related to per capita income growth, whereas＇ since the late 1990s, foreign direct investment and marketization have lost their significance and have been replaced by new sources of growth, such as innovation and knowledge, with only exports continuing to be important. This finding is robust after controlling for other variables representing other economic policies and provincial characteristics. We also tackle the possible endogeneity of innovation variables using the instrumental variables estimation method.     

Guest Editors’ Introduction

China has entered a new stage of social and economic development,having eliminated absolute poverty by the end of 2020.Common prosperity will be a new goal in this new development stage.There are domestic and international reasons for China to promote common prosperity as a new development goal.Domestically,the reform and opening-up policies over the past 40 years have promoted rapid economic growth and a considerable improvement in Chinese living standards but the problem of unbalanced development has not been solved effectively.This problem is manifested in all aspects of social and economic development,including excessive income inequality and unfair income distribution,regional disparities,a significantly large urban-rural gap,and unequal access to basic public services among different population groups.     

Regional Inequalities and Its Determinants in Rural China：An Empirical Study Based on Agricultural Household Level Data

Using 1000 agricultural household survey data in 2002, this paper employs Gini coefficient and the Theft index to explore the regional inequalities and its determinants in rural China. We first measure the overall rural income inequality, and then decompose it by region and by factor （source of income） respectively. Third, we construct an econometric model to analyze the determinants affecting the income inequality indexes. Our main finding is that although Gini coefficient and Theft index is at a normal level, we need to point out that there exists a risk that the income inequality may climb up with the misbalanced growth of regional economy without taking adequate policy into account. At the end of this paper, policy suggestion is given： governments should offer more financial support for the less developed rural areas, where income level is quite low. An alternative choice is to enhance the transfer payment for the low-income people, and help them to get access to profitable economic project. In the long run, it is especially important to strengthen the farmers＇ professional training, and to increase their migrant ability to nonagricultural career.     

Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China： 1997-2007

The surge in international capital inflows and the remarkable excess liquidity in China between 1997and 2007are examined in the present paper. It is shown that China＇s improved position in terms of foreign exchange purchases, ignited by huge foreign capital inflows, has effectively induced excess liquidity in China. More importantly, by developing an econometric madel for inflation and excess liquidity, the present study demonstrates that excess liquidity has imposed significant pressure on inflation in China over the past 10 years. This finding suggests that excess liquidity in China has not only contributed to the rise in stock prices and the real estate market boom, but also affected the consumer goods market. The potential transmission mechanism of liquidity-driven inflation and policy implications of the findings of this study are discussed.     

China＇s Construction Land Expansion and Economic Growth： A Capital-output Ratio Based Analysis

Since 2003, the Chinese Government has included land policy as an important component of macroeconomic policy. The present paper analyzes the impact of the expansion of construction land on economic growth in terms of the capital-output ratio. Using provincial panel data for China from 1999to 2005, we conclude that the excess expansion of China＇s construction land led to an increase in the capital-output ratio. Therefore, expanding construction land has made little contribution to economic growth. This paper argues that contractionary land policy does not deter high economic growth, and is a necessary condition for sustainable economic growth.     

Policy Options for China＇s Bio-ethanol Development and the Implications for Its Agricultural Economy

The present paper analyzes the potential impacts of bio-ethanol expansion on agricultural production, food prices and farmers＇ incomes in different regions of China. The results show that increase in demand for feedstock to produce bio-ethanol will lead to large increase in the prices of agricultural products. The increase in prices will trigger a significant rise in the production of feedstock at the cost of lower rice and wheat production. The study also reveals that the impacts of bio-ethanol on farmers＂ incomes vary largely among regions and farmer groups. Given the expected expansion of bio-ethanol production in the future, and the limited land resources for feedstock production in China, the viability of different crops as feedstock for bio-ethanol requires careful analysis before a large-scale expansion of China＇s bio-ethanol program. Bio-ethanol production in China should be relying more on the second generation of bio-ethanol technologies （i.e. using celluloses to produce bio-ethanol）, and China＇s government should increase research investment in this field.     

为什么中国农民的消费倾向低于城市居民？

Statistics show that China‘s low-income groups or regions have a higher marginal propensity to consume out of income than do high-income groups. Contrary to this general observation,however, Chinese farmers‘ consumption rate is persistently lower than that of the urban residents for most time periods. Even with equivalent income, the farmers‘ consumption rate is still low compared with that of urban residents. The most deeply rooted reasons are government industrialization policies and relevant institutional arrangements, which have been extensively discussed by a wide range of scholars and thus will not be explored here.This paper will concentrate on the multiple factors that have directly caused this long-term phenomenon: low cash income of the farmers, uncertainty of income expectation, underdeveloped consumption infrastructure, and a traditional mentality which embraces austerity.     

Inequality and the Urban-rural Divide in China： Effects of Regressive Taxation

Using three comparable national representative household surveys for China in 1988, 1995 and 2002, the present paper reveals the regressivity and urban bias of China＇s direct tax and welfare system in this period It shows that a regressive taxation system and skewed allocation of subsidies increases the urban-rural income gap and enhances overall inequality. Modeling these relationships indicates that the relatively poorer rural population has a net tax liability, whereas those in the richer urban areas receive net subsidies. This pattern is common in China, although the extent of the bias varies. This skewed system of tax and welfare payments is a major cause of the persisting urban-rural income gap and contributes to the overall income inequality in China. The abolishment of the agriculture tax in 2006 has had a positive impact on rural people ＇s livelihoods.     

Labor Market Reform, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China

The year 1996 was a turning point both in terms of Chinese labor market reform aria m China＇s economic growth pattern. Before 1996, labor market reform was mainly implemented through adjustment of people＇s occupation and income structure. Since 1996, employment restructuring has led to differentiation in terms of employment status. Labor market reform in the former stage resulted in slow growth in wages, whereas reform in the latter stage enhanced economic efficiency. Both stages have enabled the Chinese economy to apply its comparative advantage of low labor cost. Labor market reform has also increased income disparity and, therefore, new challenges are posed in sustaining economic growth. China needs to adjust its development strategies and introduce labor market reform that can improve income equality, so as to achieve sustainable economic development.