Patterns of industrial specialisation in post-Unification Italy

This paper investigates the main patterns of industrial specialisation in Italian provinces over half a century following the Unification of the country. To this end, we propose a multivariate graphical technique named dynamic specialisation biplot. In 1871, specialisation vocations towards the different manufacturing sectors were limited in size and no clear geographical clustering emerged. A regional specialisation divide resulted instead clearly in 1911. In 1871 as in 1911, the foodstuffs, textile and engineering sectors represented the three pillars delimiting the arena of the specialisation race. Within that arena, the effect of public policies on the temporal evolution of provincial specialisation is considered. The adoption of free trade in the early 1860s affected noticeably the industrial specialisation of a few Neapolitan provinces. The subsequent protectionist measures altered the specialisation trajectories of selected northern provinces, largely attracted by the textile sector during the 1880s, and by the rapidly growing engineering sector in the pre-First World War decade. Within and between regional homogeneity and smooth specialisation, trajectories are instead representative of most of the remaining provinces. Among them, southern provinces exhibit specialisation paths revealing that little more than a composition effect occurred among manufacturing sectors.     

The long-run determinants of North-South terms of trade and some recent empirical evidence

This paper reviews some recent evidence of the long-run decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities versus manufactures in the context of North-South trade. This evidence is evaluated in the light of competing explanations of the sources of the observed long-run trends in the context of a model of North-South trade which includes a general resource, labor and capital in the North and specific factors in a dual economy model of the South. Changes in factor supply, sectoral and factoral bias in technical change, biased demand conditions, changes in the pattern of protection, and institutional elements, all play a role in determining the evolution of commodity and factor prices. The Lewis hypothesis of sectoral bias in the pattern of technical change towards temperate agriculture in the North and against tropical agriculture in the South is then reexamined in the light of the recent empirical evidence on terms of trade movements and some sketchy evidence presented on the patterns of bias in technical change in the North and the South. The evidence is not consistent with an absolute technical change bias towards temperate agriculture in the North. Rather, the rate of technical change in temperate agriculture is now comparable to that experienced in manufactures so that Engel curve effects now assert the major downward pressure on the long-run terms of trade between temperate agriculture commodities and manufactures, overriding the effects of diminishing returns to natural resources as Northern population expands. The empirical evidence onbiased technical change in the South is much more sketchy and the evidence on various components of North-South terms of trade is more varied.     

Revisiting long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment for G-7 countries

In this study, we applied a threshold cointegration test advanced by Enders and Siklos (2001) to investigate the properties of asymmetric adjustment on long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) in G-7 countries between January 1994 and April 2010. Although there was strong evidence of long-run PPP for these G-7 countries, with the exception of Canada, the adjustment mechanism was asymmetric. These results have important policy implications for G-7 countries.     

Broadband use and trade facilitation: Impacts on bilateral trade of sub-Saharan countries

This paper investigates the direct and combined impacts of trade facilitation and information and communication technology (ICT) on bilateral flows of 25 sub-Saharan countries. For that purpose, we select time to export and import as specific trade facilitation indicators and broadband use to study ICT impacts. Our sample covers a total of 93 countries over the period 2004–2018. By preprocessing data analysis, we impute time costs missing values, an essential shortcoming of the available databases, to study trade facilitation over time. Lastly, we employ a gravity model and implement a Bonus Vetus Estimation. Our results show that broadband use exerts a positive and significant effect on trade, especially relevant for intra-African trade flows. Furthermore, the combined effects indicate that broadband also modulates the negative impacts of time to export and time to import in the case of intra-SSA countries' trade. The more significant result is found for time to export. Our results also confirm that time costs are not only particularly harmful to intra-African trade but also negatively impact trade flows from SSA countries to the rest of the world. These outcomes show the importance of coordinating trade facilitation and digital transformation policies, particularly those devoted to digitally transforming African customs.     

Employment and export specialisation along the development path: some robust evidence

This paper contributes to the literature on the evolution of overall specialisation along the process of economic development by simultaneously estimating ‘specialisation curves’ emerging from fully comparable employment and export statistics in a sample of 32 economies (1980–2000). We apply semiparametric estimation methods, which allow us to combine the flexibility of the estimation with the inclusion of country-specific effects, demonstrating that their omission can be the source of contradictions in nonparametrically revealed patterns of diversification along the path of growth. We find no strong support for a U-shaped pattern (which is very sensitive to the methodological setting applied) but rather a robust tendency towards manufacturing despecialisation in the initial phase of economic growth that is confirmed both by export and employment specialisation patterns.     

Technology and trade: Empirical evidences for the major five industrialized countries

Technology and Trade: Empirical Evidence for the Major Five Industrialized Countries. — The conclusion that prices alone cannot explain the major disturbances in trade market shares emerges from many empirical studies on international trade flows. This paper aims at introducing supply-side variables in market shares equations, namely R&D expenditures and gross fixed capital formation, along the lines of the new theory on international trade and of the literature on technology and trade relations. The empirical work is carried out on the major five industrialized countries and on twenty manufacturing industries. The results show that the supply-side variables have played a crucial role over the last decade.     

Global current account adjustment: trade implications for the euro area countries

Although the euro area is not one of the major players in current global imbalances, the rebalancing of the current global imbalances is coupled with a significant appreciation of the euro against. In this paper, I present estimations of trade equations for individual euro area countries using a vector error correction model. Each euro area member has got a different trade elasticity, in the short as well as in the short run. Results show that exchange rate innovations affect individual euro area countries at different rates, complicating the response of the euro area’s one-size-fits-all monetary policy.

International trade and worker flows: empirical evidence for Germany

Using a linked employer–employee data set for Germany, this paper studies how worker flows are related to establishments’ international trade involvement. Unconditional figures show that trading establishments have lower worker turnover rates than non-traders, suggesting a higher degree of employment stability. Conditional on an extensive set of control variables, exporting is further associated with a higher net job flow rate, which is almost entirely due to a lower separation rate (particularly for high-skilled workers and transitions into non-employment). In contrast, both an increase and a decrease in import intensity are (weakly) associated with a lower accession rate. These results are predominantly driven by smaller establishments, and they partly lose statistical significance once unobservable establishment characteristics are taken into account.     

Overall trade specialization and economic development: countries diversify

This paper provides evidence for an aspect of trade often disregarded in international trade research: countries’ sectoral export diversification. The results of our semiparametric empirical analysis show that, on average, countries do not specialize; on the contrary, they diversify. Our results are robust for different statistical indices used to measure trade specialization, for the level of sectoral aggregation, and for the level of smoothing in the nonparametric term associated with per capita income. Using a generalized additive model (GAM) with country-specific fixed effects it can be shown that, controlling for countries’ heterogeneity, sectoral export diversification increases with income.

Technological specialization in industrial countries: Patterns and dynamics

Technological Specialization in Industrial Countries: Patterns and Dynamics. — This paper employs distribution dynamics and patent data to study the empirical dynamics of technological specialization in industrial countries. Large countries spread innovation activities across a wider range of technologies, and their specialization level in a field displays lower probability to move around its initial level (country size effects). Mobility is high and asymmetric: it is difficult to improve specialization in very disadvantaged technologies, while high comparative advantages revert towards lower specialization levels. These findings undermine the theory of technological accumulation and path dependence, its implication of persistence in trade specialization patterns and the effectiveness of targeted industrial and technology policies.     

Determinants of intra-industry trade: Among countries and across industries

Zusammenfassung Determinanten des intraindustriellen Handels: Eine internationale und interindustrielle Querschnittsanalyse. — In der vorliegenden Untersuchung werden in einem kombinierten Ansatz die Hypothesen empirisch überprüft, da\ (i) die Intensit?t des intraindustriellen Handels zwischen L?ndern systematisch mit bestimmten Charakteristika der Handelspartner und (ii) die Intensit?t des intraindustriellen Handels in einzelnen Branchen systematisch mit bestimmten Industriecharakteristika zusammenh?ngt. Als Stichprobe werden bilaterale Handelsstr?me der Jahre 1972 und 1973 zwischen den OECD-L?ndern auf der Basis dreistelliger Positionen der SITC-Gruppen 5–8 herangezogen. Die Untersuchungsergebnisse lassen darauf schlie\en, da\ es in der Regel zu einer Zunahme von intraindustriellen Handelsstr?men kommt, wenn Handelspartner im wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungsniveau oder in der (heimischen) Marktgr?\e aufholen, die heimischen M?rkte von Handelspartnern simultan wachsen und natürliche oder künstliche Handelshemmnisse abgebaut werden. Im Branchenquerschnitt sind intraindustrielle Handelsstr?me insbesondere in jenen Industrien ausgepr?gt, in denen Transaktionskosten eine vergleichsweise geringe Rolle spielen; gewisse Anhaltspunkte deuten überdies darauf hin, da\ die Intensit?t des intraindustriellen Handels mit abnehmendem Standardisierungsgrad des Sortiments zunimmt.

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Résumé Déterminants du commerce intra-industriel: Une analyse transversale internationale et interindustrielle. — Dans cette analyse nous testons empiriquement à l’aide d’une approche combinée les hypothèses que (i) l’intensité du commerce intra-industriel entre des pays dépend systématiquement des certains caractéristiques des partenaires commerciaux et que (ii) l’intensité du commerce intra-industriel dans les branches dépend systématiquement des certains caractéristiques de líndustrie. Comme échantillon nous utilisons le commerce extérieur bilatéral des années 1972 et {dy1973} entre les pays de l’OCDE au niveau des groupes 3-digit de la CTCI 5–8. Les résultats démontrent qu’il y a une augmentation du commerce intra-industriel en général, si les partenaires gagnent du terrain en niveau de développement économique ou en dimension du marché local, si les marchés locaux des partenaires croissent simultanément et si les obstacles commerciaux naturels ou artificiels sont diminués. En section transversale des branches, le commerce intra-industriel est particulièrement prononcé dans les branches oú les frais de transaction jouent un r?le comparativement faible; de plus, certains signes indiquent que l’intensité de commerce intra-industriel augmente si le degré de standardisation diminue.

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Resumen Determinantes del comercio intra-industrial: entre países e industrias. — Este trabajo examina conjuntamente, determinantes especificos de naciones y bienes, que pueden influir sobre la intensidad del comercio intra-industrial, basándose en flujos bilaterales desagregados de comercio entre países pertenecientes a la OCDE. Los resultados son consistentes con las hipótesis de que una equiparación en el nivel de desarrollo o en tama?o del mercado, o crecimiento simultáneo en los mercados nacionales de los países que comercian entre si, o una disminuciń de barreras naturales o artificiales contra el comercio, tienden a ser acompanadas de un incremento en el comercio intra-industrial entre países. A lo largo de las diferentes industrias, este comercio parece ser especialmente intenso cuando los costes de transacción son bajos. Finalmente existe evidencia positiva aunque no definitiva, de que el comercio intra-industrial disminuye con el aumento en la uniformidad de los productos.

     

Spatial pricing in international trade: Some limited evidence

Zusammenfassung Regionale Preisdifferenzierung im internationalen Handel. Ein empirischer Befund. — In diesem Aufsatz wird versucht, die Bedeutung regionaler Preisdifferenzierung im internationalen Handel zu ermitteln, wobei die Frachtraten in der Seeschiffahrt und die f.o.b.-Durchschnittswerte für kanadische Exporte von Zeitungspapier, Aluminium-Barren, raffiniertem Kupfer und Asbestfasern verwendet werden. Die Daten umfassen mehrere Jahre. Die Ergebnisse der Regressionen zeigen, da? die Exporteure aller vier Produkte die Frachtkosten bis zu einem gewissen Grade absorbieren, und zwar wohl besonders h?ufig bei Zeitungspapier und Kupfer.

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Résumé La détermination des prix spatiaux au commerce international: Quelques preuves limitées. — Cette étude essaie d’évaluer l’importance de la détermination des prix spatiaux au commerce international en utilisant le fret maritime et les valeurs par unité franco bord concernant les exportations canadiennes pour le papier à imprimer, les lingots d’aluminium, le cuivre, et les fibres d’amiante. La base des données comprend plusieurs années. Les résultats de la regression indiquent que les exportateurs des quatre produits analysés absorbent partiellement le fret s’ils forment les prix mais il semble que la pratique est plus prépondérante concernant les prix de papier à imprimer et de cuivre.

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Resumen Política de precios espacial en el comercio international : cierta evidencia empírica limitada. — En este trabajo se intenta evaluar la importancia de una política de precios espacial en el comercio international utilizando tarifas de carga marítima y valores unitarios fob de las exportaciones canadienses de periódicos, lingotes de aluminio, cobre (tipos refinados) y fibras de asbesto. El banco de datos abarca varios a?os. Los resultados de las regresiones indican que una parte de la absorción de la carga ocurre en la política de precios para los cuatro bienes, mas en la práctica parece no prevalecer en la politica de precios para periódicos y cobre.

     

Exchange-rate variability and trade performance: Evidence for the big seven industrial countries

Zusammenfassung Variabilit?t der Wechselkurse und Entwicklung der Exporte: Evidenz für die sieben gro\en Industriestaaten. — Dieser Aufsatz enth?lt empirische Ergebnisse über den Zusammenhang zwischen der Variabilit?t der Wechselkurse und dem Au\enhandel der sieben gro\en OECD-L?nder. Im Gegensatz zu anderen Arbeiten wird der Einflu\ der realen Exporterl?se der ?lf?rderl?nder auf die Ausfuhr dieser sieben L?nder berücksichtigt. Au\erdem wird das ausl?ndische Einkommen sowohl bei “hohen” als auch bei “niedrigen” Dollar-Wechselkursen berechnet, um sicherzustellen, da\ die Ergebnisse nicht durch die Wahl eines bestimmten Wechselkursniveaus für den Dollar verzerrt werden. Schlie\lich werden au\er den unverz?gerten auch die verz?gerten Impulse der Wechselkursvariabilit?t für die Exporte getestet. Die Ergebnisse lassen darauf schlie\en, da\ die Wechselkursvariabilit?t die Exporte keines der sieben gro\en L?nder w?hrend der Periode flexibler Kurse nachteilig beeinflu\t hat.

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Résumé Variabilité des taux de change et performance commerciale: Evidence pour les grands sept pays industriels. - Cet article présente des résultats empiriques concernant la relation entre la variabilité des taux de change et le commerce pour les grands sept pays OCDE. Contrairement aux autres études empiriques les auteurs considèrent l’influence des revenus reéls d’exportation des nations producteurs de pétrole sur les exportations de ces sept pays. Aussi les auteurs mesurent le revenu étranger au niveau des taux de change de dollar ?haut? aussi bien que ?bas? pour garantir que les résultats ne sont pas biaises par le niveau particulier des taux de change choisi pour le dollar EU. Finalement, les auteurs testent les effets immédiats et retardés de la variabilité des taux de change sur les exportations. Les résultats indiquent que la variabilité des taux de change n’a pas négativement influencé les exportations des grands sept pays pendant la période des taux de change flexibles.

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Resumen Variabilidad del tipo de cambio y comercio internacional: Evidencia para los siete países industrializados más importantes. - En este trabajo se presentan resultados empíricos de la relación entre la variabilidad del tipo de cambio y el comercio para los siete países más importantes de la OECD. A diferencia de trabajos previos se toma en cuenta la influencia de los ingresos reaies en concepto de exportaciones de los países exportadores de petróleo sobre las exportaciones de los siete países estudiados. Además se mide el ingreso en divisas al cambio alto y bajo del dólar, con el fin de evitar el sesgo immanente al utilizar un sólo nivel de cambio para el dólar. Finalmente, so lleva a cabo un test para estudiar el efecto instantáneo y desfasado de la variabilidad del tipo de cambio sobre las exportaciones. Los resultados indican que la variabilidad del tipo de cambio no ha afectado negativamente a las exportaciones de los siete países estudiados durante el período de cambios flexibles.

     

Patterns and determinants of intra-industry trade in Asia

Intra-industry trade (IIT) has gained in importance across Asia as a result of the rapid growth of Asian economies and their key role in the international fragmentation of production. This paper examines the level of IIT for 22 countries in East, Southeast, South, and Central Asia in 2003. IIT is measured as a multilateral trade-weighted index and is reported for ten different categories of goods in the primary and secondary sectors. In addition, the determinants of IIT are investigated using a Tobit regression model. The results indicate that ASEAN and the high-income countries in East Asia exhibit the highest levels of IIT, followed closely by China and India. R&D spending, openness, and a higher share of manufactured exports were found to promote IIT, while geographical distance and the difference in economic size had an adverse effect, especially for manufactured goods. The ASEAN free trade area was most prominently associated with IIT across all SITC categories. Central and South Asian regional trade agreements had a positive influence on IIT in primary products.     

Patterns and determinants of international fragmentation of production: Evidence from outward processing trade between the EU and Central Eastern European countries

Patterns and Determinants of International Fragmentation of Production: Evidence from Outward Processing Trade between the EU and Central Eastern European Countries. — In this paper we investigate a specific form of international fragmentation of production, that is, the form giving rise to international trade for reasons of processing. Data on textile and apparel trade between EU countries and Central European countries show that the magnitude of trade for reasons of processing greatly overshadows that of final trade. The industry appears to be affected by a process of international fragmentation whose understanding requires a new definition of the concept of comparative advantage. Our analysis suggests that this fragmentation is activated by labor cost differentials as well as by reasons of geographic and cultural proximity.     

The political economy of trade liberalization in developing countries

The paper addresses the issue of trade liberalization in developing countries from a political economy perspective using the theory of collective action. The role of collective action and interest group behavior is analysed critically both with respect to the initiation of attemps at liberalization and its outcome in terms of success or failure. A probit model is then used to test empirically the various hypotheses as to the determinants of likelihood of success of liberalization attempts. A sample of 51 liberalization episodes relating to 24 countries and spanning the period 1950–80 is used. Five factors are found to be critical in the process of liberalization: the strength of exporters groups as represented by the diversification and importance of manufactures and traditional exports, the strength of import-competing sector's opposition as measured by the share of manufacturing in GDP, the time elapsed since the beginning of import substitution, the size of country and the leadership committment and role.     

Privatisation and trade performance: evidence from China

Many studies have shown that privatisation has the potential to apply the forces of competition and high‐powered incentives to reduce costs and innovate. However, few studies investigate whether privatisation can enhance export performance through higher levels of efficiency. Using China's National Bureau of Statistics surveys and customs trade data, we explore the causal effect of privatisation on trade. The wave of 2002 Chinese state‐owned enterprise reforms provided a natural experiment that enables us to use the difference‐in‐differences approach to examine this question. Consistent with the theoretical predications, the empirical results show positive and significant effects of privatisation on all the examined indicators of export performance, including total export value, the intensive margin, and the extensive margin.