共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Vassilios G. Papavassiliou 《Economic Notes》2012,41(3):173-182
In this study we estimate and compare the realized range volatility, a novel efficient volatility estimator computed by summing high–low ranges for intra‐day intervals, to the recently popularized realized variance estimator obtained by summing squared intra‐day returns. Our results, derived from a Greek equity high‐frequency data set, show that realized range‐based measures improve upon the corresponding realized variance‐based ones in most cases, especially for the most actively traded stocks. The usefulness of high‐frequency data in measuring and forecasting financial volatility is apparent throughout the paper. 相似文献
2.
We are concerned with the problem of spot volatility estimation in the presence of microstructure noise. We introduce an estimator based on the technique of multi‐step regularization. A preliminary form for such an estimator was proposed in Ogawa (2008) and was shown to work in a real‐time manner. However, the main drawback of this scheme is that it needs a lot of observation data. The aim of the present paper is to introduce an improvement to this scheme, such that the modified estimator can work more efficiently and with a data set of smaller size. The technical aspects of implementation of the proposed scheme and its performance on simulated data are analysed. The scheme is tested against other spot volatility estimators, namely a realized volatility type estimator, the Fourier estimator and three kernel estimators. 相似文献
3.
This study investigates the profitability of momentum and reversal strategies of different investment horizons in the Chinese stock market. The findings indicate that momentum strategies are profitable for investment horizons less than one week. For longer investment horizons, reversal strategies are profitable. This result is very different from the US market, where profitable momentum strategies yield to much longer investment horizons. We show that this is because investors in Chinese stock market generally overreact to the company cash flow news while investors in US market underreact to cash flow news. 相似文献
4.
We use the semi‐nonparametric (SNP) model to study the relationship between the innovation of the Volatility Index (VIX) and the expected S&P 500 Index (SPX) returns. We estimate the one‐step‐ahead contemporaneous relation subject to leverage GARCH effect. Results agree with a body of newly established literature arguing non‐linearity, and asymmetries. In addition, the risk‐return behaviour depends on the signs as well as magnitudes of the perceived risk. We conclude that influence of fear or exuberance on the conditional market return is non‐monotonic and hump‐shaped. Very deep fear does not necessarily mean huge losses, instead, the loss may not be as bad as fears of normal levels. Results pass the robustness tests. 相似文献
5.
Valeriy Zakamulin 《Bulletin of economic research》2017,69(4):E66-E93
The empirical financial literature reports evidence of mean reversion in stock prices and the absence of out‐of‐sample return predictability over horizons shorter than 10 years. Anecdotal evidence suggests the presence of mean reversion in stock prices and return predictability over horizons longer than 10 years, but thus far, there is no empirical evidence confirming such anecdotal evidence. The goal of this paper is to fill this gap in the literature. Specifically, using 141 years of data, this paper begins by performing formal tests of the random walk hypothesis in the prices of the real S&P Composite Index over increasing time horizons of up to 40 years. Although our results cannot support the conventional wisdom that the stock market is safer for long‐term investors, our findings speak in favor of the mean reversion hypothesis. In particular, we find statistically significant in‐sample evidence that past 15‐17 year returns are able to predict the future 15‐17 year returns. This finding is robust to the choice of data source, deflator, and test statistic. The paper continues by investigating the out‐of‐sample performance of long‐horizon return forecasting based on the mean‐reverting model. These latter tests demonstrate that the forecast accuracy provided by the mean‐reverting model is statistically significantly better than the forecast accuracy provided by the naive historical‐mean model. Moreover, we show that the predictive ability of the mean‐reverting model is economically significant and translates into substantial performance gains. 相似文献
6.
As opposed to institutional investors, individual investors typically have several investment objectives in mind. The traditional utility maximization approach is not only oversimplified but also may not be suitable for real world application. Behavioral asset allocation divides a portfolio into subportfolios, which can cause potential problems. This paper follows the Modern Portfolio Theory and introduces the practical idea of treating some goals as constraints. How this works in practice is illustrated by an example of an individual having three different objectives. This article follows the idea of Chen et al. (2006) and includes life insurance. Consumption is modeled into three parts and accommodates a reasonable basis for calculating life insurance requirements and generally integrates consumption into the investment decision. As a whole, the model provides a customized solution for the environment and complex investment goals of an individual. 相似文献
7.
《Bulletin of economic research》2018,70(1):74-87
Evidence of monthly stock returns predictability based on popular investor sentiment indices, namely SBW and SPLS as introduced by Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) and Huang et al. (2015) respectively are mixed. While, linear predictive models show that only SPLS can predict excess stock returns, nonparametric models (which accounts for misspecification of the linear frameworks due to nonlinearity and regime changes) finds no evidence of predictability based on either of these two indices for not only stock returns, but also its volatility. However, in this paper, we show that when we use a more general nonparametric causality‐in‐quantiles model of Balcilar et al., (forthcoming), in fact, both SBW and SPLS can predict stock returns and its volatility, with SPLS being a relatively stronger predictor of excess returns during bear and bull regimes, and SBW being a relatively powerful predictor of volatility of excess stock returns, barring the median of the conditional distribution. 相似文献
8.
Cryptocurrencies are gradually establishing themselves as a new class of assets with unique features, although there remains skepticism and a lack of understanding of their nature. In this study, we compare the financial properties of these new digital assets and investigate their dynamic relationship with major financial securities and commodities. Furthermore, we evaluate the economic and financial potential benefits of cryptocurrencies for financial investors. Using different time-varying copula approaches and bivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models, we find that the cross-correlation with conventional assets is changing over time but weak, supporting the idea that these cryptocurrencies can be suitable for financial diversification. However, our analysis of portfolios shows that cryptocurrencies are poor hedging instruments in most of the considered cases. Moreover, we find that the relationship between cryptocurrencies and conventional assets is sensitive to external economic and financial shocks. 相似文献
9.
Ruzhao Gao 《Applied economics》2016,48(33):3081-3087
In this article, we investigate the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on correlations between the UK stock market and gold market. We find that less certain economic policies result in lower correlations, while more certain economic policies result in higher correlations. The correlations are symmetric and show no structural breaks caused by the recent financial crisis. The recent financial crisis has not changed EPU effects on the correlations. The effects of one positive one-standard-deviation shock of the logarithmic change rate of the EPU on the correlations last approximately 19 months. 相似文献
10.
Overnight risk of exchange rate is more and more important because the exchange rate trading time of various countries is inconsistent. Drawing on the multi-quantile CAViaR model for two markets, this study proposes a multi-quantile CAViaR model for three markets and a multi-quantile CAViaR model for joint shock. The two new models are used to measure the impact of the U.S. Dollar index and the Euro on the overnight risk for the exchange rate of the Japanese Yen, Hong Kong Dollar, and Chinese Renminbi. The results show that, first, a lag risk affects the overnight risk of the three exchange rates, of which the Renminbi exchange rate is subject to the largest risk. Second, the U.S. Dollar index and Euro exchange rate risks impact the overnight risk of the three exchange rates and this effect is highest for the overnight risk of the Yen's exchange rate. In addition, the impact of the U.S.Dollar index risk is greater than that of the Euro. Third, the Euro and U.S.Dollar index produce a joint shock on the overnight risk of the three exchange rates, and here, the Yen's exchange rate suffers the biggest shock. Finally, the multi-quantile CAViaR model for joint shock is more accurate than that for three markets, particularly when the Hong Kong Dollar exchange rate has a 5% VaR. These empirical results have meaningful implications for regulatory authorities. 相似文献
11.
This paper investigates the influence of the spatial dimension on financial contagion in the subprime crisis based on adjusted and local correlation measures. Daily series of stock indexes of American and Asian countries are used from January 1, 2003, to December 30, 2011. We consider two groups of countries: the first group includes the United States and countries that are geographically close: Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Canada. The second group includes countries that are geographically distant from the United States: Hong Kong, India, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, China, and Singapore. The results show that simple and adjusted correlations are not enough to explain the spatial effect of contagion. Using local correlations and polynomial regressions, the results show the existence of spatial contagion between the United States and all countries in the American region. As for countries that are geographically distant from the United States, we prove the existence of spatial contagion between only some groups of countries (United States/India, United States/Australia, United States/Indonesia, United States/Malaysia, United States/China). These results have international diversification, and within-industry implications. 相似文献
12.
Based on the wavelet analysis approach, this paper firstly examines the dynamic relationship between global economic activity (proxied by the Kilian economic index) and crude oil prices in both time- and frequency-domains. Our empirical results demonstrate significant correlation between crude oil prices and global economic activity at high frequencies (in the short run) during the entire sample period; however, the co-movement between the two at low frequencies (in the long run) is weaker and exists only during certain proportions of the sample period. We also document evidence that global economic activity and oil price are positively correlated, with dynamic lead-lag relationships across time. Our findings are robust to alternative choices of oil price indexes and controlling for other confounding factors such as geopolitical risk, armed conflicts, economic policy uncertainty and equity market uncertainty. The current study provides valuable implications for oil market investors based on the information of global economic situation and its dynamic relationships with oil prices. 相似文献
13.
Phornchanok Cumperayot 《Bulletin of economic research》2017,69(4):355-383
We demonstrate how the EVT‐based signalling approach for currency crises can be applied to an individual country with a small sample size. Using Thai historical data, first, we study the tail characteristics of the distributions of two Thai baht instability measures and 21 economic fundamentals. Then, we test asymptotic dependence between the currency instability measures and lagged economic fundamentals. Empirically, we find that the distributions of both currency instability measures and economic variables are heavy tailed. Assuming a normal distribution for the variables tends to underestimate the probability of extreme events. Furthermore, most of the economic variables which are usually used as signalling indicators for currency crises are asymptotically independent of the currency instability measures. Signals issued by these variables are thus not reliable. Nevertheless, the non‐parametric EVT approach facilitates the selection of economic indicators with credible signals and high crisis prediction success. 相似文献
14.
Abstract. This paper deals with the determinants of agents' acquisition of information. Our econometric evidence shows that the general index of Italian share‐prices and the series of Italy's financial newspaper sales are cointegrated, and the former series Granger‐causes the latter, thereby giving support to the cognitive dissonance hypothesis: (non‐professional) agents tend to buy the newspaper when share prices are high and not to buy it when share prices are low. Instead, we do not find support for the hypothesis that the agents acquire information in order to trade in the stock market: we find no relationship between quantities exchanged in the market and newspaper sales, nor between stock market volatility and newspaper sales. 相似文献
15.
Vassilios G. Papavassiliou 《Bulletin of economic research》2016,68(2):124-132
Following recent advances in the non‐parametric realized volatility approach, we separately measure the discontinuous jump part of the quadratic variation process for individual stocks and incorporate it into heterogeneous autoregressive volatility models. We analyse the distributional properties of the jump measures vis‐à‐vis the corresponding realized volatility ones, and compare them to those of aggregate US market index series. We also demonstrate important gains in the forecasting accuracy of high‐frequency volatility models. 相似文献
16.
This paper applies nonparametric decision tree models to the analysis of financial leverage decisions. This approach presents three appealing features: (i) the relationship between leverage and explanatory variables is not predetermined but is derived from information provided by the data, (ii) the models respect the fractional nature of leverage ratios, and (iii) each covariate is allowed to influence in different ways the financial leverage decisions of firms automatically assigned to different groups. Based on a data set of Portuguese firms, decision trees are used to tackle both classification (the decision to issue debt) and regression (the decision on the amount of debt to be issued, conditional on using debt) problems. It is found that: (i) two‐part models are the most appropriate specification for explaining the overall amount of debt used by firms, (ii) there are no drastic differences between the results produced by tree and parametric models, although some divergences may arise, and (iii) tree models suggest relationships between covariates and leverage that parametric models fail to capture, especially when the sample size is small. 相似文献
17.
China is the world's largest oil importer, and therefore the correlations between stock indices and highly volatile oil prices deserve close examination when investing in China's gradually liberalizing stock market. Another concern for international investors is whether safe-haven assets can reduce portfolio risks for investment in China. The paper makes two main contributions. First, we develop a novel method of examining a multivariate dependence structure by combining wavelet analysis with the vine copula model. Second, we apply the proposed methodology to study the correlations between China's liberalizing stock market, petroleum, and safe-haven assets at different frequencies. We find that the multidimensional dependence of these assets has been altered as a result of the 2008 global financial crisis. Moreover, the vine structures exhibit dependence patterns that vary over time horizons, indicating that the multidimensional dependence is sensitive to time scales. 相似文献
18.
We test for learning among heterogeneous individuals who are engaged in bidding and who possess limited information about the auctioned assets. We use an extensive dataset taken from an auction through which state‐owned enterprises were privatized in the Czech Republic in 1993–94. To test for learning, we develop new measures of individual performance to accommodate the varying prices of assets available in six successive stages of bidding. We present evidence that learning took place among heterogeneous agents during a large‐scale multi‐stage auction that is unique in terms of its size, incentives and variation. The auction’s design, with multiple market periods, allowed agents to learn based on accumulated experience. As individuals had to pay a fee to participate, and as the potential gain was in the magnitude of several months’ salary, we conclude that large incentives were driving our results. 相似文献
19.
We perform a comparative analysis of regional growth and convergence in China, Russia and India over the period 1993–2003 by means of non‐parametric methods and kernel density estimates. Our results indicate that wealthy regions were largely responsible for the rapid growth in all three countries. For China and India, capital dissipation was identified as the major determinant of regional growth. In Russia, capital deepening impeded positive changes in labour productivity, leaving technological change as the only source of regional growth. Furthermore, we find that the increasing regional income inequality in all three countries was driven by technological change which more than offset the convergence resulting from capital deepening in China and India. 相似文献
20.
PAUL SCHREYER 《Review of Income and Wealth》2012,58(2):257-278
This paper provides an overview of measuring price and volume changes of the output of health and education providers. In the national accounts, outputs should reflect the results of production and these cannot normally be captured by outcome, the state of health or education of the population. However, we show that outcome information is required when it comes to quality adjustment of output measures. The paper clarifies terminology, and discusses output measurement and quality adjustment methods with a focus on health and education services. 相似文献