Risk and Return within the Single-Family Housing Market

The trade-off between risk and return in equity markets is well established. This paper examines the existence of the same trade-off in the single-family housing market. That market is dominated by homeowners, who constitute about two-thirds of U.S. households. For them the choice about how much housing and what house to buy is a joint consumption-investment decision. Furthermore, owner-occupied housing is by nature a lumpy investment whose risk cannot be completely diversified. Does this consumption-investment link negate the risk-return trade-off within the single-family housing market? Theory suggests the link still holds. This paper supplies empirical evidence in support of that theoretical result.     

The Affordability of New Homes

There has been much recent public discussion about the rising price of new homes, and concern that an increasing number of families are priced out of the new home market. This paper argues that new homes are no more expensive, relative to income, than they have historically been, although the large volume of subsidized new home production during the early 1970s has tended to distort the recent trends. The main problem for new home buyers is the increase in mortgage interest rates generated by inflation in the past decade. However, current homeowners have also benefited from inflation and may be better able to afford a new house as a result. This paper also presents data on recent new home buyers, showing that a large number of families are buying new homes supposedly beyond their means, and that the typical buyer has a much lower income than has been thought feasible by many housing market analysts.     

Forecasting Sales of New Contingent Products: An Application to the Compact Disc Market

Estimating the sales potential of new products before an actual launch is a major problem confronting marketing and new products managers. Several modeling efforts for both new durable products and consumer package goods have been reported. An area which has received little explicit treatment, however, is that of new contingent product sales. A specific case of such products is the close relationship between software (consumables or accessory items subject to repeat purchase), and hardware (the original durable good required for use of the software). Examples of this relationship include video cassette recorders and VCR tapes; microcomputers and floppy diskettes; and cameras and photographic film. In this article Barry Bayus discusses a practical method for estimating hardware and software sales of such products. Effects due to different market segment behaviors, pricing, awareness levels, and purchase intentions are incorporated into the model. Results from a study of the compact disc prerecorded audio market by RCAlAriola are presented in order to illustrate how the model can be applied and how the results are useful in making managerial decisions.     

Short Sales and Price Discovery in the Hong Kong Real Estate Market

Indirect real estate (IRE) returns are often shown to lead direct real estate (DRE) returns. Apart from differences in liquidity, transaction costs, and management skills, the DRE market is also less complete than the IRE market—when negative shocks arrive, one can only short IRE (e.g., real estate stocks or REITs), but not DRE. This study investigates if short sales in the IRE market convey any information to the DRE market. Based on high‐frequency (weekly) property price data in Hong Kong from 2000 to 2012, we find that short sales in the IRE market led DRE returns, even after controlling for the lagged IRE returns in a VAR model. This supports an information spillover mechanism in which the DRE market learns private information that is not reflected in IRE returns. The spillover effect, however, weakened after the recent global financial crisis because the increased uncertainty over the credibility of individual firms made short sales more reflective of firm‐specific information than real estate market fundamentals.     

欧洲市场食品新型软包装

欧洲在世界软包装印刷技术发展中处于领先地位。尤其是该地区的各种食品包装的包装结构、印刷方式和包装方式,对我国食品生产及包装企业有一定的参考价值。下面重点介绍几种新型软包装:1、饮料软包装随着环保方面的要求越来越严格,软包装也正在成为一种趋势。多种不同结构的新型包装正成功满足饮料苛刻的保鲜要求。印刷方式为凹印或柔印。包装形式为立式袋等。包装材料的结构和特性:PET/ALU/PE,适用于各种果汁等饮料立式包装袋,机械性能非常好,适合于热封;PET/EVOH/PE,适用于各种果汁等饮料立式包装袋,阻隔性好、透明性好;PET/ALU…     

The Effect of Sales Force Adoption on New Product Selling Performance

Although several studies have suggested that the sales force is a major contributing factor to new product success, few studies have focused on new product adoption by the sales force, particularly with respect to its relationship with selling performance. The present article presents empirical evidence on the impact of sales force adoption on selling performance. We defined sales force adoption as the combination of the degree to which salespeople accept and internalize the goals of the new product (i.e., commitment) and the extent to which they work hard to achieve those goals (i.e., effort). It was hypothesized that the impact of sales force adoption on selling performance will be contingent on supervisory factors (sales controls, internal marketing of the new product, training, trust, and supervisor's field attention), and market volatility. Therefore, this article also provides evidence of the conditions under which sales force adoption of a new product is more or less effective in engendering successful selling performance. The hypothesized relationships were tested with data provided by 97 high technology firms from The Netherlands. The results show that sales force adoption is positively related to selling performance. This finding suggests that salespeople who simultaneously exhibit commitment and effort will achieve higher levels of new product selling performance. Outcome based control, internal marketing and market volatility are also positively related to new product selling performance. The effect of sales force adoption on selling performance is stronger where outcome based control is used and where the firm provides information on the background of the new product to salespeople through internal marketing. Training and field attention weaken the adoption‐performance linkage. These findings may indicate that salespeople in The Netherlands interpret training as “micromanaging” and field attention as “looking over their shoulder.” We conclude with implications of our study for research and managerial practice.     

减肥药市场孕育新的商机

人体减肥及减肥药，一直是医药市场中的热门话题。在我国市场上，保健食品、处方药、OTC药物的品种及品牌繁多。在临床学术推广、产品促销手段和强势广告宣传下，减肥类产品在医药市场中被炒得沸沸扬扬，上演了一部部减肥大片。随着许多减肥产品的阵阵乘兴而来，又在疗效及副作用的影响下败兴而归，呈现出落花有意、流水无情的市场局面。     

对成品油销售企业市场占有率的分析

国内成品油市场竞争模式的改变引起了对市场占有率的反思。单纯追求市场份额、追求销售数量的外延扩大式竞争，已开始转变为挖掘企业内部潜力、增强企业核心竞争能力的竞争。未来市场占有率增长空间主要集中在小额用户尤其是农村消费用户。扩大市场占有率的主要途径包括：(1)从资源、渠道、客户等多方面做文章，多管齐下；(2)通过市场手段和行政手段整合市场资源；(3)调整单一的产品结构以适应复杂多变的市场要求；(4)建立良好的激励机制、用人机制以及企业文化。提高市场占有率应注意几个问题：一是市场占有率并不是越高越好，提高企业整体盈利能力是目的，提高市场占有率仅仅是实现目的的手段之一；二是要正确处理短期利益与长远利益的问题，根据经营单位的实际经营能力、管理水平、市场拓展空间、当前占有水平和经营计划等因素进行综合判断；三是要正确处理石油、石化两大集团区内、区外市场占有的关系，避免由于竞争策略不当引起竞争各方全面受损。     

Forecasting Market Size and Market Growth Rates for New Products

How many times is a forecast of a technological development correct? According to many experienced managers, it almost never is. Then what good is a forecast? A forecast helps make important innovation decisions, according to Brian C. Twiss. He argues that precision in forecasting a technological development is seldom needed for purposes of long-term planning and that any innovation so marginal that small errors in forecasting will make a big difference should not be considered anyway. Twiss suggests that technology forecasting can be of real value once it is accepted that it is essentially concerned with modeling human behavior. This is the unexpected viewpoint that Twiss presents in this article. He explains how to develop and how to use a technology forecast in long-range planning.     

Product—Market Choices and Growth of New Businesses

The relationship between product–market strategies and the growth of new firms is incompletely understood. The lack of understanding reflects the absence of a conceptual framework that would explain why certain product–market strategies achieve specified goals more effectively than do others. Prior research links product and market strategy to business growth, but does not clearly separate product line choices from market choices, and provides little guidance with respect to the sequence in which product and market changes should be made. Richard Cardozo, Karen McLaughlin, Brian Harmon, Paul Reynolds, and Brenda Miller propose a "wave" model of product–market choice, which yields hypotheses they evaluate with data from a subsample of 120 firms drawn from a representative sample of new businesses. Results yield preliminary guidelines for product–market strategy for managers of fledgling businesses.     

Modeling the Conditional Probability of Foreclosure in the Context of Single-Family Mortgage Default Resolutions

Both empirical and pricing-simulation models of mortgage default focus on foreclosure in a one-step decision framework. Such models are misspecified to the extent that mortgage default and foreclosure are two separate decisions or events, where foreclosure is but one outcome of a default episode. This study examines the dynamics of mortgage borrower default episodes using a large sample of FHA-insured single-family mortgages. We estimate the influence of borrower characteristics, mortgage terms, and economic conditions on probabilities of various resolutions, highlighting under what conditions foreclosure is more likely to result from mortgage default.     

Equity and Nonequity Determinants of FHA Single-Family Mortgage Foreclosures in the 1980s

We examine foreclosures on FHA single-family mortgages insured during the 1975–87 period. The importance of the market value of borrower equity and national house price dispersion support much earlier work emphasizing the key role of negative equity in triggering default. The lower is "mean" market-value equity, and the greater is dispersion, the greater is the fraction of borrowers likely to have negative equity. The unemployment rate and the book value of borrower equity are also shown to be significant determinants of default. Unemployment is one of those events that can force borrowers to move. The moving decision increases the likelihood of default because moving costs no longer deter default, and the costs of selling the house reduce the effective equity in the house. The book value of equity is relevant to this decision because it is what the sellers receive if they move without defaulting. Not only are both of these variables significant determinants of default, but the smaller is book equity, the greater is employment impact (with large book equity, unemployment should not matter because selling the house is preferred to default).     

The Role of Market Research in the Development of New Consumer Products

Managers today face the twin challenges of producing better results, faster than ever before. Robert Davis presents a number of lessons on how market research can enhance a typical new product development and decision plan. His central theme is the disciplined use of very focused market research to make better and faster decisions about a new product throughout its development. These lessons are based on his thirty years of experience in market research, mostly in the new products work conducted at Procter & Gamble.     

The Significance of the New Venture's First Sale: The Impact of Founders' Capabilities and Proactive Sales Orientation

Initial sale success in the market with a new product is a critical milestone for a new venture. Failure at the introduction stage of a new product could have lethal consequences for the venture. In the present study, the authors investigate the role of a new venture company's first successful sale in the venture's future commercial success. The authors develop and test a model of the impact of the founders' entrepreneurial and commercial capabilities and proactive sales orientation on the significance of the first sale and sales growth of a new venture. Using survey data and partial least squares estimation, the results reveal that the founders' commercial capabilities have a positive effect on proactive sales orientation, while their entrepreneurial capabilities positively moderate the effect of commercial capabilities. Further, the results reveal that a proactive sales orientation positively affects the significance of the first sale and that value‐based selling approach positively moderates the effect of proactive sales orientation. Finally, the results reveal that the significance of the first sale is positively related to sales growth. Thus, the authors conclude that combining the founders' commercial and entrepreneurial capabilities strengthens proactive sales orientation and that, in turn, a proactive sales orientation particularly increases the significance of the first sale when new venture companies practice value‐based selling. Research has convincingly demonstrated proactive selling behavior to be one of the most powerful predictors of sales performance. Value‐based selling is a sales approach to identify, quantify, communicate, and verify value of a new product to the customer. Our findings suggest that founders who possess both strong commercial and entrepreneurial capabilities engage considerably more in proactive sales practice as compared with founders that only possess strong commercial capabilities. Hence, rather than hiring specific sales expertise, founders should develop their proactive, value‐selling capabilities.     

The Impact of the Corporate Mind‐set on New Product Launch Strategy and Market Performance

In the last decade, there has been an increasing interest in the link between new product launch strategy and market performance. So far, new product launch research has focused on this performance relationship without giving much attention to background factors that can facilitate or inhibit successful launch strategies. However, investigating such antecedents that set the framework in which different strategic launch decisions enable or prevent the market performance of new products is useful for enhancing the current state of knowledge. Drawing on the concept of a firm's orientation, the present study discusses the influence of the corporate mind‐set on new product launch strategy and market performance. It is hypothesized that the capability to successfully launch new products is based on the interplay between a firm's mind‐set (i.e., an analytical, risk‐taking, and aggressive posture) and its strategic launch decisions on setting launch objectives, selecting target markets, and positioning the new product. A research model with mediating effects is proposed, where the corporate mind‐set determines the launch strategy decisions, which in turn impact market performance. The model is tested with data on 113 industrial new products launched in business‐to‐business markets in Germany using a multiple informant approach. The results support the mediated model as the dimensions of the corporate mind‐set have a significant impact on most strategic launch decisions, which in turn significantly contribute to market performance. It is found that while an analytical posture relates to all three strategic launch decisions, risk taking and an aggressive posture have a significant impact on two, respectively one, launch strategy elements. These findings confirm the importance of investigating antecedents for a successful new product launch, as the corporate mind‐set serves as a background resource that sets the framework for successful new product launch decisions. In the final section implications for research and managerial practice as well as limitations of this research are provided.     

The Relationship of R&D/Sales to Firm Performance: An Investigation of Marketing Contingencies*

The relationship between a firm's performance and R&D spending is often imperfectly understood, despite the fact that R&D is often a cornerstone of an effective innovation strategy. Susan Holak, Mark Parry, and Michael Song extend the classic innovation-adoption paradigm developed by Rogers and propose a series of hypotheses describing variations in the relationship between the R&D/sales ratio and a firm's performance. Using data from the PIMS database and contrasting growth-stage and mature-stage firms, the authors report that firm and industry characteristics have an important bearing on the R&D-performance relationship. In addition, managers can influence the incremental effects of added R&D spending on the firm's performance by manipulating certain firm-contingent variables. Increased R&D spending can have either a positive or negative influence on gross margin under various circumstances.     

中国市场结构和市场绩效关系实证研究--从消费者角度识别两者的关系

本文利用我国44个行业中的367家企业共计103616位消费者的满意度数据，以及这44个行业的产业集中度数据，通过结构方程模型，实证研究了我国市场结构和市场绩效之间的关系。研究结果表明，与美国等西方国家不同，处于市场经济条件下转型过程中的中国市场，主要是市场绩效决定市场结构，而不是市场结构决定市场效率。     

How New Product Introductions Affect Sales Management Strategy: The Impact of Type of "Newness" of the New Product

How do firms adjust sales management strategy for new product launch? Does sales management strategy change more radically for different types of new products such as new‐to‐the‐world products versus product revisions? Because firms introducing a new product rely considerably on their sales force in the product launch effort, the types and degree of changes made in managing the selling effort are important issues. Past studies have demonstrated that firms make substantial adjustments in their sales management strategy when they introduce a new product. This study expands on previous investigations by examining whether sales management strategy changes are conditioned by the type of newness of the new product to the market and to the firm. Australian sales managers were asked to respond to a mail questionnaire concerning pre‐ and post‐new product launch sales management activities. Three groups of firms were compared: (1) those with new‐to‐the‐market and new‐to‐the‐firm products (i.e., new‐to‐the‐world products); (2) those with products new to the firm but not new to the market; and (3) those with products that are revisions to the firm and not new to the market. The study finds that firms do not make the most adjustments for products with the greatest degree of market newness—the new‐to‐the‐world types of products—except in the sales management strategy categories of compensation and supervision. In the other sales management strategy categories defined for study—organization, training, quotas and goals, and sales support as well as for all categories in the aggregate—sales management strategy changes were greatest in incidence, as measured both by the percent of firms making changes and the average number of changes per firm, when the new product was new to the firm but not new to the market. These results suggest that, because different types of new products face different competitive environments, there may be greater incentive for a not‐new‐to‐the‐market new‐to‐the‐firm product to make changes in sales strategy. Uncertainties about market size and customer location with new‐to‐the‐world products may limit the understanding of what changes to make in the strategy categories of quotas and territories. Similarly, uncertainties about product use and customer acceptance of new‐to‐the‐world products may limit the development of training and sales support materials by these firms. Instead, these firms may rely more on compensation and supervision to direct sales efforts for new‐to‐the‐world products. However, observing the market experience and performance of the first‐to‐market product can benefit firms launching a not‐new‐to‐market and new‐to‐the‐firm product, allowing them to rely more on strategy changes in training, sales support materials, organizational adjustments such as redeployments, and quotas.     

Market Vision and Market Visioning Competence: Impact on Early Performance for Radically New,High‐Tech Products*

Having the “right” market vision (MV) in new product scenarios involving high degrees of uncertainty has been shown to help firms achieve a significant competitive advantage, which can ultimately lead to superior financial results. Despite today's increased rate of radical innovation, and hence the importance of effective vision, relatively little research has been undertaken to improve our understanding of this phenomenon. The exploratory and empirical investigation undertaken herewith responds to this research gap by focusing on MV and its precursor, market visioning competence (MVC), for radically new, high‐tech products. MV is a clear and specific mental model/image that organizational members have of a desired and important product‐market for a new advanced technology, and MVC is a set of individual and organizational capabilities that enable the linking of advanced technologies to a future market opportunity. Based on samples of high‐tech firms involved in early technology developments, the measurement study indicates that five factors comprise MV (i.e., clarity, magnetism, specificity, form, and scope) and that four factors underlie MVC (i.e., networking, idea driving, proactive market orientation, and market learning tools). Structural equation modeling is used to demonstrate that MVC significantly and positively impacts MV and that each of these constructs significantly and positively influences certain aspects of early performance (EP) in new product development. This is the first empirical study to develop a comprehensive set of scales to measure these constructs and then to combine them in a model by which to examine their interrelationships.     

Large‐Scale Buy‐to‐Rent Investors in the Single‐Family Housing Market: The Emergence of a New Asset Class

In 2012, several large firms began purchasing single‐family homes, creating large portfolios of rental property, and securitizing these investments in capital markets. We present the first systematic evidence on this new investor activity in order to shed light on the factors that have supported its emergence. Three key factors were the ample supply of property for sale, tight mortgage financing and a decrease in acquisition and managerial costs brought about by technological advances. In addition, we show that buy‐to‐rent investors appear to have supported house prices in the neighborhoods where they concentrated.