Afterword on the Five-Year Outlook: Problems and promises

The editors offer a synthesis that reflects the motivations and concerns that underlie this volume and present “some reasonably tempered hopes and future prospects”. Among the former, they discuss “political/ institutional issues” impinging on the Outlook—its purpose, production, users, and feedback—as well as “technical/intellectual” ones. Among the latter, they note that for Outlook reports beyond the second, current signals are that the science policy community will be involved more substantially, and that contributions in general will be decentralized. They foresee the Outlook evolving into a forum for discussion and advocacy of future science-technology priorities.     

Bargaining Outcomes with Double-Offer Arbitration

Increasingly, arbitration is becoming used to resolve bargaining disputes in a variety of settings. Reducing dispute rates is often listed as a main goal in designing arbitration mechanisms. Conventional arbitration and final-offer arbitration are two commonly used procedures, but theoretical examinations of these arbitration procedures show that disputants’ final bargaining positions do not converge and disagreement is likely. This article contains results from a set of experiments designed to compare bargaining outcomes under the two commonly used arbitration procedures with outcomes under an innovative procedure called “double-offer” arbitration (Zeng et al., 1996). This procedure requires that disputants make two final offers at impasse: a primary and a secondary offer. The arbitrator evaluates the pairs of offers using a linear criterion function, and theory suggests the secondary offers converge to the median of the arbitrator’s preferred settlement distribution. Because the procedure’s rules are that convergence of offers generates a settlement at those offers, this theoretical convergence result implies that arbitration is not needed in the end. Experimental results indicate that dispute rates in double-offer arbitration are, on average, about the same as dispute rates in conventional arbitration. However, other results show reason to favor double-offer arbitration. Specifically, in repeated bargaining, there is concern over whether use of an arbitration procedure becomes addictive and makes bargainers more likely to use the procedure in the future-a “narcotic effect.” The data show that double-offer arbitration is non-addictive, whereas both conventional and final-offer arbitration are.     

Bargaining in the transfer market: theory and evidence

This paper examines the transfer market for association football players as operated in the English Football League using transfer data for the 1990–91 season. After describing the purposes and procedures involved in the transfer system together with the motives of the participants, we apply two-person bargaining theory to analyse the determination of transfer fees. The data and estimation procedures are explained and the results reported and interpreted. Our analysis suggests that the Nash bargaining theory captures the salient features of the bargaining process in the footballer's transfer market.     

Delayed agreements and nonexpected utility

The unexplained occurrence of inefficient delays in reaching agreement is known in the economics literature as the “Hicks paradox.” This paper describes a strategic situation in which players may play a simultaneous move game either before or after a move of Nature. The structure is such that if the players were expected utility maximizers, they would be indifferent over the order of play. However, if at least one of the players is a nonexpected utility maximizer, for example, if player one has preferences over lotteries which exhibit betweenness and fanning out, such a player may strictly prefer to wait before playing the game. If both players exhibit fanning out and betweenness, then there exist games in which both prefer to delay agreement.     

Achieving efficiency with manipulative bargainers

Two agents bargain over the allocation of a bundle of divisible commodities. After strategically reporting utility functions to a neutral arbitrator, the outcome is decided by using a bargaining solution concept chosen from a family that includes the Nash and the Raiffa–Kalai–Smorodinsky solutions. When reports are restricted to be continuous, strictly increasing and concave, it has been shown that this kind of “distortion game” leads to inefficient outcomes. We study the distortion game originated when agents are also allowed to claim non-concave utility functions. Contrasting with the previous literature, any interior equilibrium outcome is efficient and any efficient allocation can be supported as an equilibrium outcome of the distortion game. In a similar fashion to the Nash demand game we consider some uncertainty about the opponent's features to virtually implement the Nash bargaining solution.     

ON THE NEUTRALITY OF COALITION FORMATION IN A PURE BARGAINING PROBLEM*

We consider the sequential bargaining game à la Stahl–Binmore–Rubinstein with random proposers, juxtaposing an ex ante coalition formation stage to their bargaining game. On the basis of the expected outcomes in the negotiation over how to split a dollar, players can form coalitions in a sequential manner, within each of which they can redistribute their payoffs. It turns out that the grand coalition does form, and that each player receives his discounted expected payoff, which is obtained by playing as a single player in the negotiation, although there could be many equilibria in the bargaining stage.     

Imitation processes with small mutations

This note characterizes the impact of adding rare stochastic mutations to an “imitation dynamic,” meaning a process with the properties that absent strategies remain absent, and non-homogeneous states are transient. The resulting system will spend almost all of its time at the absorbing states of the no-mutation process. The work of Freidlin and Wentzell [Random Perturbations of Dynamical Systems, Springer, New York, 1984] and its extensions provide a general algorithm for calculating the limit distribution, but this algorithm can be complicated to apply. This note provides a simpler and more intuitive algorithm. Loosely speaking, in a process with K strategies, it is sufficient to find the invariant distribution of a K×K Markov matrix on the K homogeneous states, where the probability of a transit from “all play i” to “all play j” is the probability of a transition from the state “all agents but 1 play i, 1 plays j” to the state “all play j”.     

A learning-based model of repeated games with incomplete information

This paper tests a learning-based model of strategic teaching in repeated games with incomplete information. The repeated game has a long-run player whose type is unknown to a group of short-run players. The proposed model assumes a fraction of ‘short-run’ players follow a one-parameter learning model (self-tuning EWA). In addition, some ‘long-run’ players are myopic while others are sophisticated and rationally anticipate how short-run players adjust their actions over time and “teach” the short-run players to maximize their long-run payoffs. All players optimize noisily. The proposed model nests an agent-based quantal-response equilibrium (AQRE) and the standard equilibrium models as special cases. Using data from 28 experimental sessions of trust and entry repeated games, including 8 previously unpublished sessions, the model fits substantially better than chance and much better than standard equilibrium models. Estimates show that most of the long-run players are sophisticated, and short-run players become more sophisticated with experience.     

Pitfalls to avoid when measuring institutions: Is Doing Business damaging business?

Over recent years, both governments and international aid organizations have been devoting large amounts of resources to “simplifying” the procedures for setting up and formalizing firms. Many of these actions have focused on reducing the initial costs of setting up the firm, disregarding the more important role of business registers as a source of reliable information for judges, government departments and, above all, other firms. This reliable information is essential for reducing transaction costs in future dealings with all sorts of economic agents, both public and private. The priorities of reform policies should therefore be thoroughly reviewed, stressing the value of the legal institutions rather than trivializing them as is often the case. Journal of Comparative Economics 35 (4) (2007) 729–747.     

Learning to Learn, Pattern Recognition, and Nash Equilibrium

The paper studies a large class of bounded-rationality, probabilistic learning models on strategic-form games. The main assumption is that players “recognize” cyclic patterns in the observed history of play. The main result is convergence with probability one to a fixed pattern of pure strategy Nash equilibria, in a large class of “simple games” in which the pure equilibria are nicely spread along the lattice of the game. We also prove that a necessary condition for convergence of behavior to a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium is that the players consider arbitrarily long histories when forming their predictions.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C72, D83.     

Quasi-weightings, Trading, and Desirability Relations in Simple Games

We investigate the problem of simultaneously characterizing various classes of simple games in three different ways: (i) the existence of “quasi-weightings” in which smaller numerical values are assigned to losing coalitions than are assigned to winning ones, (ii) the robustness of “winningness” with respect to trades involving groups of players, and (iii) the acyclicity of certain strict “orderings” that intuitively correspond to the idea of one player being more desirable than another.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: C71.     

Selective Acceptance and Inefficiency in a Two-Issue Complete Information Bargaining Game

This paper explores the effects of a “selective acceptance” rule on the outcome of two-issue negotiations. The alternating-offer game introduced here allows for the possibility that settlement may be reached on one issue while negotiation continues about the other. This model captures features of laws that are generally believed to increase efficiency. The analysis shows that if one issue is indivisible, there are inefficient subgame perfect equilibria with no Pareto-improving alternative equilibria. With opposing valuations, rapid communication guarantees inefficiency. These are unique examples of this strong form of inefficiency in an alternating-offer bargaining game with complete (and perfect) information. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, J30.     

Stability and Largeness of the Core

In general, there are examples of TU games where the core is stable but is not large. In this paper, we show that the extendability condition introduced by Kikuta and Shapley (1986, “Core Stability in n-Person Games,” Mimeo) is sufficient for the core to be stable as well as large, for TU games with five or fewer players. We provide a counter example when the number of players is six. We then introduce a stronger extendability condition and show that it is necessary and sufficient for the core to be large. Our proof makes use of a well-known result from the theory of convex sets. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: C71.     

Deconstructing border practices in the Estonian‐Russian borderland

The Estonian‐Russian borderland is a relatively fragile, fairly contested and highly politicised arena in which a number of vital issues for both countries meet and are negotiated. This fact makes the borderland a part of the (geo)political process, including bargaining over social space and resource access, where one can find actors located on different spatial levels and situated among various interests groups. The present article attempts to study how borders with a multitude of meanings and roles can be understood and crossed in time, scale and from different geographical settings. It illuminates the conflicting visions and asymmetric interests among the local borderland population, regional authorities, central governments and international actors. Lastly, it will be argued that border negotiations are unlikely to succeed or intensify where conflicting visions and asymmetric interests dominate, different actors talk ‘different languages’, or boundary‐producing practices simply prevail over border‐crossing practices.     

Unions and the share economy

This paper contrasts share bargaining and wage bargaining in the context of a “monopoly” model of union bargaining. In the example considered here, employment levels are identical under wage and share systems, but total compensation is higher under share bargaining than under wage bargaining, underscoring the importance of the broader ontext within which a share system is introduced.     

An experimental analysis of ultimatum bargaining

There are many experimental studies of bargaining behavior, but suprisingly enough nearly no attempt has been made to investigate the so-called ultimatum bargaining behavior experimentally. The special property of ultimatum bargaining games is that on every stage of the bargaining process only one player has to decide and that before the last stage the set of outcomes is already restricted to only two results. To make the ultimatum aspect obvious we concentrated on situations with two players and two stages. In the ‘easy games’ a given amount c has to be distributed among the two players, whereas in the ‘complicated games’ the players have to allocate a bundle of black and white chips with different values for both players. We performed two main experiments for easy games as well as for complicated games. By a special experiment it was investigated how the demands of subjects as player 1 are related to their acceptance decisions as player 2.     

Existence and Uniqueness of Ordinal Nash Outcomes

In this paper we present necessary and sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of ordinal Nash outcomes. These outcomes are derived from the ordinal Nash solution—a reinterpretation and an extension of the Nash bargaining solution that allows bargainers to have preference relations that are more general than expected utility. Our task is undertaken by the construction of a new notion called “induced utilities”. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: C78.     

A note on the speculative demand for money

In the General Theory, Keynes argued that expectations about future bond prices tend to be “sticky”. A rise in bond prices causes more investors to “join the bear brigade” and so increases the aggregate demand for money. Since Tobin's classic article on liquidity preference, this explanation of the downward sloping demand for money curve has largely disappeared from the literature. This note introduces sticky expectations into the Tobin framework. It shows that the existence of such stickiness does not necessarily cause the demand for money to be more elastic because investors have expectations about the variance of future bond prices as well as about their mean. A sufficient condition for a more elastic demand for money under sticky expectations is that the Pratt-Arrow coefficient of relative risk aversion be either constant or decreasing in wealth.     

A note on bargaining over a finite number of feasible agreements

Summary In this note we show that theuniqueness of the subgame perfect equilibrium of Rubinstein's (1982) bargaining theory does not hold if the number of feasible agreements isfinite. It will be shown thatany Pareto-efficient agreement (belonging to thefinite set of feasible agreements) can be supported as a subgame perfect equilibrium of the Rubinstein alternating-offers bargaining game, provided the length of a single bargaining period is sufficiently small.     

Congestion games with malicious players

We study the equilibria of non-atomic congestion games in which there are two types of players: rational players, who seek to minimize their own delay, and malicious players, who seek to maximize the average delay experienced by the rational players. We study the existence of pure and mixed Nash equilibria for these games, and we seek to quantify the impact of the malicious players on the equilibrium. One counterintuitive phenomenon which we demonstrate is the “windfall of malice”: paradoxically, when a myopically malicious player gains control of a fraction of the flow, the new equilibrium may be more favorable for the remaining rational players than the previous equilibrium.