盈余管理:创业板风险投资与ipo后市场表现的实证研究

文章以2009年10月30日到2010年12月31日期间上市的152家深圳创业板公司为研究样本,研究有无风险投资背景前提下,创业板公司IPO前是否存在正向盈余管理与IPO后市场表现之间的关系。实证结果显示:有风投背景上市公司盈余管理程度较无风投公司盈余程度低,差异显著;有风投背景的上市公司短期市场表现强于无风投公司,中期市场表现则与之相反。创业板公司存在正向盈余管理行为,且IPO前盈余管理和IPO后中短期市场表现呈负相关且差异显著。     

年报信息披露的超常收益及其影响因素

与年报盈余公告效应的研究不同,本文在拓展年报信息考虑范围的基础上,检验盈余信息、股利信息、账市比、成长性和财务风险等年报披露信息对不同公司规模的超常收益的解释能力。研究结果表明,年报信息披露窗口存在显著超常收益,账市比、盈余信息、股利信息对该超常收益有显著的解释能力,因为在大多数公司规模中,账市比、盈余信息的极端值含有股票未来收益的信息,账市比、盈余信息、股利信息对超常收益有显著的边际影响;但成长性和财务风险等年报信息仅对部分公司规模的超常收益有解释能力。     

The relationship between the smoothing of reported income and risk-adjusted returns

This paper uses risk-adjusted returns for the firms in the S&P 500 to test whether the stock market response to accounting performance measures is related to the smoothness of companies’ reported earnings. Three income models, increasing in their measure of smoothness, test the hypotheses using cumulative average abnormal returns. The results indicate that companies that report smooth income have significantly higher cumulative average abnormal returns than firms that do not. When size is considered, market returns are higher for small companies than for large companies. There is also a significant relationship between the type of industry and income smoothing.     

The Information Content of Earnings Components: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market

China's listed firms report substantial non-operating revenues and expenses. We argue that these non-core earnings should have different properties and different valuation implications than operating or core earnings. Furthermore, the different types of firm ownership may have differential impacts on the information content of earnings components. Based on data from 1996 to 2008, we find that core earnings are more persistent than non-core earnings. Because of this, core earnings have a greater association with contemporaneous stock returns. However, the stock market does not fully incorporate all the information in earnings; we find that core earnings are undervalued and non-core earnings are overvalued. This effect is much reduced for privately controlled listed firms. We develop an investment trading strategy to exploit these market inefficiencies.     

双重上市股票更有投资价值吗？——基于H+A股与A股的对比分析…朱宏泉，应潇潇

通过对比先在H股上市、后回到A股上市的股票（简记为H+A股）与仅在A股上市的股票上市首日收益率、上市后短期和长期收益的差异,探讨两类股票的投资价值。结果显示：相较于A股股票,H+A股上市首日收益更高,但上市后的短期收益和长期收益更低。究其原因,H+A股更高的上市首日收益与其发行定价低相关,短期和长期市场收益低既与公司的业绩不好相关,也与投资者的不认可相关,表明相较于仅在A股上市的股票,H+A股更不具备投资价值。     

The underwriter’s early lock-up release: Empirical evidence

A lock-up agreement is an arrangement between the underwriter and certain pre-IPO shareholders. This paper examines the influence of an underwriter’s early lock-up release on shareholder wealth. The study found significant negative abnormal returns associated with the early lock-up release annoucement. Negative abnormal returns are more pronounced for venture capital backed firms than for firms not venture capital backed. In addition, scheduled lock-up release day abnormal returns, found in previous studies to be significantly negative, are reduced for firms announcing the early lock-up release.(JEL G24, G30)     

创业投资声誉、创业板IPOs初始收益和长期业绩

以我国创业板市场IPOs为样本,引入创业投资声誉对IPO折抑价理论模型进行修正,采用多元回归和两阶段回归方法,实证检验创业投资声誉与创业板IPOs初始收益和长期业绩之间的关系后发现:我国创业板市场中创业投资核证监督作用微弱;创业投资声誉对IPOs初始收益无显著影响;创业投资声誉对IPO后企业长期业绩有显著正效应。本文的研究结论对创投声誉下的创业板发行制度建设有积极作用。     

Does going public in the U.S. facilitate corporate innovation of foreign firms?

We examine how going public in the U.S. IPO market influences corporate innovation. Using 185 foreign and 2948 U.S. domestic firms going public in the U.S. over the 1980–2006 period, we find that while exhibiting similar innovativeness in the pre-IPO period, non-U.S. firms tend to generate more innovation than U.S. domestic firms after going public. The findings are robust to adopting subsample tests, various measures of changes in innovation around the year of the IPO, and accounting for truncation problems and potential endogeneity concerns. Further tests show that changes in innovation around the year of the IPO tend to be less prominent for non-U.S. firms that domiciled in countries with more developed equity market and higher level of economic freedom. Our study provides insights into the real effect of going public in the U.S. IPO market on innovative activities.     

Price effects after one-day abnormal returns in developed and emerging markets: ESG versus traditional indices

This paper examines price effects related to one day abnormal returns on the stock market indices of both developed and emerging countries while accounting for differences between environmental, social, governance (ESG), and conventional indices. Using daily data from MSCI family indices from 2007 to 2020 and various methods to avoid methodological bias, the following hypotheses are tested: after one-day abnormal returns, specific price effects (momentum/contrarian) appear (H1) in cases of positive (H1.1) and negative (H1.2) returns, price effects after one-day abnormal returns are stronger in the case of traditional indices as compared to ESG indices (H2), price effects after one-day abnormal returns are stronger during the crisis period (H3), a dynamic trigger approach is more appropriate for defining abnormal returns than a static approach (H4), price effects after one-day abnormal returns are stronger in emerging markets as compared to developed ones (H5). The results are mixed in the case of H1 and provide no evidence in favor of H2-H5. They also show no significant differences between ESG and conventional indices. The types of detected price effects are the same for the cases of ESG and conventional indices; their power is different in some cases. Overall, a strong contrarian effect is observed in the US stock market after one-day abnormal returns; a trading strategy constructed based on this observation could generate profits from trading. The main results offer additional evidence against the Efficient Market Hypothesis and provide implications that can assist practitioners in beating the market.     

风险投资机构参与对上市公司IPO前盈余管理的影响——基于创业板上市公司的数据

基于创业板上市公司数据,对风险投资机构参与及其特征对我国上市公司IPO前的盈余管理影响进行实证检验,结果显示：风险投资机构参与对上市公司IPO前的盈余管理起到了积极的认证和监督作用。在我国,政府性资本占主要地位的风险投资机构更多地发挥了正面认证和监督作用。风险投资机构的声誉和数量对上市公司IPO前的盈余管理发挥了较大作用,风险投资机构的声誉越高、数量越多,上市公司IPO前一年的盈余管理程度越低。风险投资机构总持股比例与盈余管理程度无显著关系。     

Earnings Management in Domestic and Foreign IPOs in the United States: Do Home Country Institutions Matter?

Using a large sample of domestic and foreign IPOs in the US, we investigate how threats of enforcement by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and private litigation influence earnings management in IPO prospectuses. We propose that perceptions of foreign institutions may influence SEC enforcement action and private litigation. We provide evidence that enforcement and litigation threats are negatively related to the strength of legal institutions in the foreign IPO’s country of origin. We find earnings management is more pronounced in foreign IPOs from countries with strong legal institutions. We further explore whether earnings management is priced in the IPO market and find no relation between IPO proceeds and earnings management. Our results are consistent with upward earnings management as in Stein (1989), the magnitude of which is reduced when the anticipated cost of enforcement and litigation is higher. Collectively, our results cast doubt on the validity of the bonding hypothesis.     

Board ownership and IPO returns

This study examines the role of the board of directors for IPO pricing irregularities. Theory suggests that initial underpricing may be the result of asymmetric information and the long-run underperformance may be the result of managerial mismanagement of new funds due to agency conflicts. A strong board of directors can potentially reduce both asymmetric information and agency problems. We find that the structure of the board is related to IPO pricing anomalies. Initial returns are directly related to share ownership by insiders and the percentage of independent outsiders, and long-run returns are directly related to share ownership by insiders.     

Long-run underperformance following private equity placements: The role of growth opportunities

Our results show that the post-offering performance of private equity issuers is related to growth opportunities. We find significant long-run underperformance in stock returns following private placements only for firms with high Tobin's q. High-q firms experience not only poor stock price performance but also poor operating performance. Low-q firms, in contrast, do not display significant stock price or operating underperformance. We further examine three potential explanations for this relation: over-investment in assets by managers, investor skewness preference, and over-optimism about earnings prospects. Our results are consistent with the view that investors are overly optimistic about the prospects of high growth firms.     

Price gap anomaly in the US stock market: The whole story

This paper analyses the price gap anomaly in the US stock market (comprised of the DJI, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) covering the period 1928 to 2018. This paper aims to investigate whether or not price gaps create market inefficiencies. Price gaps occur when the current day’s opening price is different from the previous day’s closing price due orders placed before the opening of the market. Several hypotheses are tested using various statistical tests (Student’s t-test, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney test), regression analysis, and special methods, that is, the modified cumulative returns and the trading simulation approaches. We find strong evidence in favour of abnormal price movements after price gaps. We observe that during a gap day prices tend to change in the direction of the gap. A trading strategy based on this anomaly was efficient in that its results were not random, indicating that this market was not efficient. The momentum effect was found to be temporary and no evidence of seasonality in price gaps was found. Lastly, our results were also contrary to the myth that price gaps tend to get filled.     

Capital market reactions to earnings announcements: empirical evidence on the difference in the information content of IAS-based earnings and EC-Directives-based earnings

Listing on a foreign stock exchange and the aim to attract international investors usually forces European quoted companies to adapt information supplied in financial statements to different information needs of international investors. Because of the dominance of the American stock market, this adaptation raises especially the question whether Anglo-American-oriented accounting standards (for instance IAS — International Accounting Standards) convey a higher information content for investors than continental-Europe-oriented accounting standards (for instance EC-Directives). The study examines the information content of earnings announcements, i.e. abnormal returns resulting from un-expected earnings, for a sample of Swiss quoted companies which have changed the accounting standard used for presenting Swiss GAAP consolidated financial statements to either EC-Directives or IAS and can therefore contribute to this discussion. The results of the study suggest that IAS-based earnings announce-ments convey a statistically significant higher information content than earnings announcements based on the Swiss GAAP if a variance-approach is used. For investors in the Swiss capital market, the switch from Swiss GAAP to IAS has therefore increased the information content of financial statements. But comparing IAS-based and EC-Directives-based earnings announcements, the results suggest that for investors IAS-based earnings do not possess a statistically significant higher information content than EC-Directives-based earnings. This result has been achieved despite the fact that for Swiss financial analysts financial statements based on IAS convey a significant higher information content than financial statements based on EC-Directives. Avoiding problems in specifying a model for unexpected earnings by standardizing the mean of the abnormal returns of each event window to a positive value does not lead to a different conclusion if the variance approach is used.     

Factors affecting secondary share offerings in the IPO process

We investigate whether the sale of secondary shares in the IPO process is affected by an issuing firm's market-timing and window-dressing activities. We find that secondary share offerings in IPOs exhibit positive autocorrelation, and the positive autocorrelation is mainly affected by the overall stock market return. Similar to the IPO wave, this finding suggests that favorable market conditions attract existing pre-IPO shareholders to sell their shares in IPOs and cause the clustering of secondary share offering in IPOs. In addition, we find that window dressing has a significant effect on both the probability of secondary share offering and the proportion of secondary shares offered in an IPO. The result is robust after controlling for firm age, industry affiliation, and other factors. Our result also indicates that the number of firms offering secondary shares in IPOs, the probability of secondary share offerings, and the proportion of secondary shares offered in IPOs are significantly lower in the Internet bubble period.     

The Profitability of Trading Strategies Based on Book Value and Earnings in Hong Kong: Market Inefficiency vs. Risk Premia

Using a sample of Hong Kong firms, we have examined the relative and incremental usefulness of book-to-price ratio (B/P), and earnings-to-price ratio (E/P) for providing profitable trading strategies or for predicting stock returns. Our results show that trading strategies based on B/P or E/P yield significant excess returns for various holding periods up to two years, and that B/P and E/P are not only individually but also incrementally useful for predicting stock returns. Further, results of various tests indicate that trading profits observed from the B/P strategy are likely to be a result of B/P proxying for risk differentials, while those from the E/P strategy are related to gains from exploitation of market inefficiency or mispricing. The two ratios appear to capture different aspects of firm value in Hong Kong.     

Implications of limited investor attention to customer–supplier information transfers

This study focuses on the market reaction to information transfers from economically linked customers. I examine whether investors have limited attention with respect to the information contained in customer earnings announcements for suppliers. Using 1083 unique customer–supplier relationships for the period 1983–2011, I find that the cumulative abnormal returns of a supplier surrounding and following linked customers’ earnings announcements are positively related to the earnings information of the customers, suggesting that customer earnings announcements convey information to suppliers. I also find that the post-earnings announcement drift in customers contributes to the cross-firm reaction, and the predictability of customer earnings surprises for suppliers’ future returns is not entirely due to limited investor attention.     

Does Mad Money make the market go mad?

Empirical studies of numerous popular investment advisory services find statistically significant abnormal returns at the time of their broadcast or published investment recommendations. Our analysis of returns and trading volume around stock recommendations aired on charismatic host Jim Cramer's Mad Money program reveals statistical evidence of response to both his buy and sell opinions, with most of the full-day return following an on-air buy recommendation captured by that day's opening price. Trading strategy analysis suggests that individuals with limited funds should be wary of short-term trading to exploit the show's suggestions, while professional investors may be able to exploit buy picks with a contra strategy.     

Managing Underpricing? The Case of Pre‐IPO Discretionary Accruals in China

Previous studies have found that companies use income‐increasing positive discretionary accruals (DAC) prior to initial public offerings (IPOs) to inflate earnings as a signal to anticipate future income and future dividends. This study, directly explores the role of DAC in prospectus information of 691 A‐shares IPOs in China during the period 1995–2002 and its relationship with market‐adjusted returns. The results suggest that in China, pre‐IPO non‐discretionary accruals (NDAC) as well as DAC have informative value in explaining first‐day returns as well as first‐year adjusted returns. However, in yearly cross‐sectional models, I find that firms use income‐decreasing accruals (conservative accounting) in prospectus financial statements. This downward manipulation or income “understatement” creates a regulatory setting that could explain initial underpricing and abnormally high IPO returns for A‐shares. In addition, the results show that as state ownership (SO) increases, cash flow also increases, exacerbating agency costs and adverse selection problems. These findings may suggest that managers might be using more conservative accounting in Prospectus financial data to offset the agency costs related to high cash flow, and high SO, by “banking income” and possibly therefore “smoothing” the effects of possible future suboptimal earnings.