Rational asset pricing bubbles and debt constraints

Rational price bubble arises when the price of an asset exceeds the asset’s fundamental value, that is, the present value of future dividend payments. The important result of Santos and Woodford (1997) says that price bubbles cannot exist in equilibrium in the standard dynamic asset pricing model with rational agents facing borrowing constraints as long as assets are in strictly positive supply and the present value of total future resources is finite. This paper explores the possibility of asset price bubbles under endogenous debt constraints induced by limited enforcement of debt repayment. Equilibria with endogenous debt constraints are prone to have infinite present value of total resources. We show that asset price bubbles are likely to exist in such equilibria. Further, we demonstrate that there always exist equilibria with price bubbles on assets in zero supply.     

The Hicksian trade cycle with floor and ceiling dependent on capital stock

This article reconsiders the Hicksian multiplier – accelerator model with ‘floor’ and ‘ceiling’. The new thrust is that these constraints are tied to the actual stock of capital, the floor to the depreciation on this stock, the ceiling to capital as a limiting production factor according to the fixed proportions technology that also underlies the principle of acceleration. For capital formation just the Hicksian investment theory is used. The result is one unified model creating economic growth and growth rate cycles.     

Monetary Ratios in a Modern Regime: Why the Monetary Base still Matters

A recent paper Bank of England paper cast doubt on the ‘textbook’ model of the money multiplier. However, this criticism is inconsistent and misleading. It understates the importance of the central bank's control over the monetary base, and how this influences the money supply. The confusion suggests that it would be more fruitful to conduct analysis using the currency‐deposit ratio and reserve‐deposit ratio rather than the money multiplier, and evidence from 1998–2013 is provided. This article explains how these ratios depend on the monetary regime, and the distinction between inside and outside money. Although a modern regime alters the way that money creation occurs, the monetary base still matters.     

The effects of public spending externalities

We conduct a positive analysis on the effects of ‘externalities’ produced by government spending. To this effect, we estimate, using U.S. data, an RBC model with two salient features. First, we allow government consumption to directly affect the marginal utility of consumption. Second, we allow public capital to shift the productivity of private factors. We provide an identification analysis that supports the strategy adopted for estimating the parameters governing these two channels. On one hand, private and government consumption are robustly estimated to be substitute goods. Because of substitutability, labor supply reacts little to a government consumption shock, so the estimated output multiplier is much lower than in models with separabilities. On the other hand, our results point towards public investment being ‘unproductive’.     

Further remarks on the Global Newton method

In this work, we are concerned with the behavior of Smale's ‘Global Newton’ process, starting from points not necessarily on the boundary. We find that the process is locally system stable in the sense that, sufficiently near an equilibrium, one is almost always led to some equilibrium of the system. However, the ‘Global Newton’ process is found typically not to be globally stable; instead, families of cycles appear, preventing convergence to equilibrium.     

Interindustry Linkages: Virtuous and Vicious?

Although overall linkages are steadily increasing in growth processes, em-pirical data supply strong evidence of large intercountry and intertemporal fluctuations of the domestic-to-overall linkages ratio. This paper tries to explain this phenomenon by modelling a producers' behaviour which appears more realistic than that usually assumed in interindustry or computable general equilibrium models. The main novelty of the results is that the same causes that generate interindustry multipliers can also ‘trap’ domestic linkages into reinforcing (‘virtuous’) or weakening (‘vicious’) circles, depending on whether the price competitiveness of domestic activities is above or below a threshold related to the non-price competitiveness of those activities. These results can help to explain the fluctuations of domestic linkages with respect to overall linkages by spatial and temporal shifts of the threshold between the vicious and the virtuous ‘areas’. Moreover, they emphasize the importance of supply policies-mainly R&D policies—because of their ‘pushing down’ effect on this threshold.     

Spatial equilibrium with local public goods: Urban land rent,optimal city size and the Tiebout hypothesis

This paper extends the standard model of urban land rent to consider the spatial equilibrium conditions in a local public goods market as hypothesized by Charles M. Tiebout. An analysis is made of the spatial dimensions of public goods, their degree of ‘localness’ and their impact on land values. It is shown that the optimal population size of the community (Tiebout's sixth assumption) is simultaneously derived with the optimal supply of local public goods and local taxes. It is also shown that land rent is a poor output indicator of Tiebout's equilibrium conditions and that the capitalization assumption is not the appropriate test for his hypothesis.     

The Lowry Model Revisited: Incorporating a Multizonal Input-Output Model into an Urban Land Use Allocation Model

This paper formulates a new generation of Lowry-style models that combine a multizonal input-output model and an urban land use allocation model. Three different types of models are proposed: 1) an unconstrained model, 2) a primal of a linear programming approach that includes land supply constraints, and 3) a modified dual of the linear programming approach that allocates land based on additional conditions of economic efficiency. The modified dual formulation improves upon the limitations of Lowry models and their derivatives. First, the proposed model has sound theoretical underpinnings that incorporate the production theory of input-output models and the behavioral theory of optimization models. Second, the proposed model allocates land on the basis of economic efficiency by imposing a procedure that equalizes shadow prices. And third, the proposed model is an optimization model that fully accounts for the spatial and sectoral relationships of multiplier effects determining land use demand.     

Is local authority procurement ‘lean’? An exploration to determine if ‘lean’ can provide a useful explanation of practice

This article makes a contribution to the research debate examining relationships between public and private sector procurement practice by exploring the influence of ‘lean’ upon procurement practices in English local authorities. A survey found that whilst some characteristics, such as a reducing supply base, resembled those of lean thinking, they could also be associated with a partnership approach. Other evidence highlighted gaps between practice and lean, leading to the conclusion that lean is not currently an influence. However, many procurement officers are aware of the concept and are willing to embrace the idea. There is a need to monitor and examine progress further.     

The relational structure of human services planning: an input-output analysis.

The relationship between human needs and human services can be quantified in terms of service standards and service units. A service standard is defined as the adopted norm for the minimum number of service units per person. The relationship between need, service (or care) and service standard is similar to the relationship between demand, supply and price in economics. Of particular interest in planning is the case where service units are given in terms of service providers per person. In a population where each person is considered to be a receiver of n categories of service and a provider of one category of service, the relationship between needs and services can further be presented in a service standard matrix. Examination of such a matrix shows that it fulfills a function analogous to the input-output matrix in economics. The principal eigen-vector of the ser-vice standard matrix expresses ratios of activity levels for a human service system in an equilibrium. Another, related equilibrium is identified for a human service system in which there are providers as well as nonproviders. Application of the two equilibria identifies optimum planning conditions for the provision of human services when service standards and population are known.     

PURCHASING AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT: INTERACTIONS,POLICIES AND OPPORTUNITIES

The mechanisms are examined by which environmentally informed business practices and technologies may diffuse through industry as a result of the ‘greening’ of purchasing and supply. The efforts of official bodies in the UK to raise environmental awareness among industrial purchasers are reviewed. It is then argued that the supply chain model is an important way of interpreting the industrial landscape from a green perspective and that it is in some ways a more hopeful and positive starting point for achieving industrial transformation. The results of an analysis of some UK companies practices in using their purchasing policies to ‘green’ their supply chains are presented and opportunities for further research indicated.     

The combined equilibrium of travel networks and residential location markets

The combined ‘user’ equilibrium of travel networks and residential location markets is shown to exist and to be unique in the expected allocation of households to residential locations and to the routes and links of the network, in the vacancies and rents of residential locations and in the congested travel time and cost of each network link. The formulation combines a multinomial logit model of households' location and route choices derived from utility maximization, a binary logit model of house owners' offer decisions derived from profit maximization and the standard model of network congestion. A travel disutility measure (consistent with utility maximization) replaces the standard ‘generalized cost function’. The proof utilizes a non-linear programming formulation which reproduces the simultaneous equilibrium conditions of the behavioral formulation. The stability of the unique equilibrium position is briefly discussed, a computational algorithm is proposed and hints for generalized formulations are provided.     

Ex-post rational price approximations and the empirical reliability of the present-value relation

Excess volatility and regression tests have resulted in apparent rejections of the present-value relation when ex-post price approximations are employed. These approximations are based upon a sample terminal condition for prices, are not ergodic time-series, and do not result in statistics with readily calculable standard errors. Kleidon (1986a) has demonstrated that ex-post price approximations can subtly affect the reliability of certain volatility tests. We use a bootstrapped cointegration model to demonstrate some of these same effects in Mankiw, Romer and Shapiro's (1985) volatility statistics. The volatility statistics rarely have positive expected value in finite samples and still do not reject the presentvalue relation. Approximations based upon a ‘rolling’ terminal condition result in volatility statistics which have calculable large-sample errors, but even these standard errors greatly overstate the accuracy of volatility statisics in small samples. Regression tests of the present value relation are also affected by the price approximations.     

Co-integration constraint and forecasting: An empirical examination

Does co-integration help long-term forecasts? In this paper, we use simulation, real data sets, and multi-step-ahead post-sample forecasts to study this question. Based on the square root of the trace of forecasting error-covariance matrix, we found that for simulated data imposing the ‘correct’ unit-root constraints implied by co-integration does improve the accuracy of forecasts. For real data sets, the answer is mixed. Imposing unit-root constraints suggested by co-integration tests produces better forecasts for some cases, but fares poorly for others. We give some explanations for the poor performance of co-integration in long-term forecasting and discuss the practical implications of the study. Finally, an adaptive forecasting procedure is found to perform well in one- to ten-step-ahead forecasts.     

EXTENSIONS TO THE MULTIPLIER DECOMPOSITION APPROACH IN A SAM FRAMEWORK: AN APPLICATION TO VIETNAM

The aim of this paper is to provide an extension of a technique recently introduced by Pyatt and Round (2006) to decompose each element of the ‘global multiplier matrix’ in ‘microscopic detail’ in order to capture the linkages between each household groups’ income and the exogenously injected income of other accounts. The methodology we propose allows dividing the impact of exogenous injections into four different effects: direct-direct effect (D-D); direct-indirect effect (D-I); indirect-direct effect (I-D) and indirect-indirect effect (I-I). Results using the 2000 Vietnamese SAM show that the highest direct effects on the income of household groups are related to exogenous injections into the agricultural sector, while the highest indirect effects result from investing in other agriculture-related sectors such as, for example, food processing. Policy interventions focusing on the agricultural sector and on rural households will thus have the greatest effect on reducing the level of income inequality.     

Signalling Theory and Equilibrium in Strategic Management Research: An Assessment and a Research Agenda

Actors within organizations commonly must make choices armed with incomplete and asymmetrically distributed information. Signalling theory seeks to explain how individuals are able to do so. This theory's primary predictive mechanism is ‘separating equilibrium’, which occurs when a signal's expectations are confirmed through experience. A content analysis finds that most strategic management signalling theory studies have not fully leveraged separating equilibrium. This presents two possible paths for future research. First, some researchers may wish to incorporate separating equilibrium. We illustrate how doing so can uncover new relationships, generate novel insights, and fortify the theory's application. Others who want to theorize about signals, but not examine separating equilibrium, could integrate ideas from signalling theory with other information perspectives. Here a signal becomes one stimulus among many that corporate actors interpret and act upon. We provide research agendas so strategy scholars can apply signalling theory most effectively to meet their research objectives.     

Supplier evaluation in the context of circular economy: A forward step for resilient business and environment concern

Resource depletion is a concern for the global economy; many think that available resources on the planet will not be able to cater to an ever-growing population. Thus, economies are trying to become circular, leaving behind the linear tradition linear approach. In the circular economy (CE), physical resources and energy are made to loop back into the supply chain (SC) for a more extended period. Proper selection of suppliers is an essential criterion towards proper execution of the CE principle in SC. In this research, we have constructed a framework for evaluating the supplier concerning the CE implementation. Further, this research identifies the criterion and sub-criterion, which are pertinent for evaluating the supplier in CE context. Fuzzy-based ‘Criteria Importance Through Inter-Criteria Correlation (CRITIC)’ method is justifiably applied to determine the aggregated weights of the criteria. Finally, ‘Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)’ method is used to determine the suppliers' ranking in the Indian automobile industry. Six criteria and 24 sub-criteria are obtained as per recent literature and then inputs from experts. ‘Environment’ criterion came out as the most favourable criterion with a subjective weight of 0.230. The current research is one of the first such attempts to provide criteria for supplier selection in a CE environment. The developed framework would help organisations in implementing CE-based supplier selection. The identified criteria and sub-criteria would provide organisations with means to evaluate suppliers and help suppliers develop an effective and efficient CE based on the SC.