基于B-S期权定价模型的可转换债券定价实证分析

可转换债券是一种混合金融衍生工具,它把相应的股票看涨期权内嵌在传统的公司债券之中,具有债券和股票的双重性质,因而可转债的定价问题逐渐为企业和投资者所关注。本文借助Black—Scholes定价模型研究定价理论,对Black-Scholes定价模型进行修正,体现了红利发放对可转换债券定价的影响。     

Option Pricing under Stochastic Interest Rates: An Empirical Investigation

Using daily data of the Nikkei 225 index, call option prices and call money rates of the Japanese financial market,a comparison is made of the pricing performance of stock option pricing modelsunder several stochastic interest rate processes proposedby the existing term structure literature.The results show that (1) one option pricing modelunder a specific stochastic interest ratedoes not significantly outperformanother option pricing model under an alternative stochasticinterest rate, and (2) incorporating stochastic interest ratesinto stock option pricing does not contribute to the performanceimprovement of the original Black–Scholes pricing formula.     

中国地震巨灾期权定价机制的实证研究

中国是遭受地震灾害最严重的国家之一,青海玉树地震将巨灾风险管理的课题再次摆到了研究者和决策者的面前。本文在剖析中国地震巨灾期权发展现状的基础上,借鉴并改进了海内外相关研究结论,构建了中国地震巨灾期权的定价模型,并对其进行了实证计量和讨论。通过对其定价机制的实证研究,本文对推动中国地震巨灾期权的发展提出了必要的政策建议。     

Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models

Substantial progress has been made in developing more realistic option pricing models. Empirically, however, it is not known whether and by how much each generalization improves option pricing and hedging. We fill this gap by first deriving an option model that allows volatility, interest rates and jumps to be stochastic. Using S&P 500 options, we examine several alternative models from three perspectives: (1) internal consistency of implied parameters/volatility with relevant time-series data, (2) out-of-sample pricing, and (3) hedging. Overall, incorporating stochastic volatility and jumps is important for pricing and internal consistency. But for hedging, modeling stochastic volatility alone yields the best performance.     

An Analysis of Covariance Risk and Pricing Anomalies

This article examines the link between several well-known assetpricing "anomalies" and the covariance structure of returns.I find size, book-to-market, and momentum strategies exhibita strong, weak, and negligible relation to covariance risk,respectively. A size factor helps predict future volatilityand covariation, improving the efficiency of investment strategies.Moreover, its premium rises following increases in both itsvolatility and covariation with other assets. These effectsare amplified in recessions. No such relations exist for book-to-marketor momentum. These findings may shed light on explanations forthese premia and present a challenging set of facts for futuretheory.     

On Option Pricing Bounds

The purpose of this article is to compare the Perrakis and Ryan bounds of option prices in a single-period model with option bounds derived using linear programming. It is shown that the upper bounds are identical but that the lower bounds are different. A comparison of these bounds, together with Merton's bounds and the Black-Scholes prices in a lognormal securities market, is presented.     

Heterogeneity and Option Pricing

An economy with agents having constant yetheterogeneous degrees of relative risk aversion prices assetsas though there were a single decreasing relative risk aversion``pricing representative' agent. The pricing kernel has fattails, and option prices do not conform to the Black-Scholesformula. Implied volatility exhibits a ``smile.' Heterogeneityas the source of non-stationary pricing fits Rubenstein's (1994)interpretation of the ``over-pricing' as an indication of ``crash-o-phobia'.Rubinstein's term suggests that those who hold out-of-the moneyput options have relatively high risk aversion (or relativelyhigh subjective probability assessments of low market outcomes).The essence of this explanation is investor heterogeneity.     

Factor Models for Option Pricing

Options on stocks are priced using information on index options and viewing stocks in a factor model as indirectly holding index risk. The method is particularly suited to developing quotations on stock options when these markets are relatively illiquid and one has a liquid index options market to judge the index risk. The pricing strategy is illustrated on IBM and Sony options viewed as holding SPX and Nikkei risk respectively.     

人民币远期汇率定价实证分析

人民币远期结售汇是我国较早发展的最常用的规避汇率风险的产品之一。本文运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验方法,对境内人民币远期定价的抵补和非抵补利率平价条件以及境内外远期汇率长期均衡关系和信息传导机制进行了实证分析。实证分析结果表明,利率平价条件在境内人民币远期汇率定价中起到基础性作用,受一些限制因素影响,汇率预期的非抵补利率平价条件不成立,远期汇率水平不能作为未来即期汇率的预期变量,境内外远期汇率存在一定的长期均衡关系,境内远期汇率对境外汇率有相对明显的引导作用,境外远期汇率的非理性人民币升值预期,也对境内远期汇率定价存在影响。     

Option Pricing with Heterogeneous Expectations

This paper re-derives the finite mixture option pricing model of Ritchey (1990), based on the assumption that the option investors hold heterogeneous expectations about the parameters of the lognormal process of the underlying asset price. By proving that the model admits no riskless arbitrage, this paper justifies that the entire family of finite mixture of lognormal distributions is a desirable candidate set for recovering the risk-neutral probability distributions from contemporaneous options quotes. The parametric method derived from the model is significantly simpler than the nonparametric method of Rubinstein (1994) for recovering the risk-neutral probability distributions from contemporaneous option prices.     

银行理财产品定价的实证研究——从利率市场化的视角

银行理财产品是我国近年来最活跃的金融创新,凭借高收益率分流了大量存款。本文以2008年1月到2011年6月期间商业银行发放的投资方向为信贷资产和票据资产的理财产品为样本,对决定理财产品定价的因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,银行理财产品收益率突破了现行的存款利率管理政策,并且多数银行理财产品的定价体现了市场因素。在此基础上,论文分析了理财产品发展对利率市场化改革的推动作用。     

An Event Option Pricing Model with Scheduled and Unscheduled Announcement Effects

There is considerable evidence supporting the time-varying distribution of asset returns. There is also ample evidence that scheduled announcement events such as money supply announcements (in the case of foreign exchange), earnings announcements (in the case of stocks), and crop reports (in the case of commodities), as well as random unscheduled events, can affect the level and volatility of asset returns. This study provides an Event Model for European call options which explicitly addresses effects of these two classes of events. This specification requires estimation of more parameters, but it could provide a more accurate basis for pricing options than previous Poisson jump-diffusion models. Parametric analysis shows that the standard models under price the options relative to the Event Model. The Event Model may be particularly useful in pricing short-term deep out-of-the-money options when scheduled events are present in the market.     

Income Risk and Portfolio Choice: An Empirical Study

This paper investigates the relationship between portfolio choice and labor income risk in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 Cohort. Permanent income risk (variability of shocks to income that have permanent effect) significantly reduces the share of risky assets in the household's portfolio, while transitory income risk (variability of shocks with no lasting effect) does not. This result provides strong evidence that households' portfolio choices respond to labor income risks in a manner consistent with economic theory.     

Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies

Previous work shows that average returns on common stocks are related to firm characteristics like size, earnings/price, cash flow/price, book-to-market equity, past sales growth, long-term past return, and short-term past return. Because these patterns in average returns apparently are not explained by the CAPM, they are called anomalies. We find that, except for the continuation of short-term returns, the anomalies largely disappear in a three-factor model. Our results are consistent with rational ICAPM or APT asset pricing, but we also consider irrational pricing and data problems as possible explanations.     

Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing Models

Finance theory can be used to form informative prior beliefs in financial decision making. This paper approaches portfolio selection in a Bayesian framework that incorporates a prior degree of belief in an asset pricing model. Sample evidence on home bias and value and size effects is evaluated from an asset-allocation perspective. U.S. investors' belief in the domestic CAPM must be very strong to justify the home bias observed in their equity holdings. The same strong prior belief results in large and stable optimal positions in the Fama–French book-to-market portfolio in combination with the market since the 1940s.     

Robust Portfolio Rules and Asset Pricing

I present a new approach to the dynamic portfolio and consumptionproblem of an investor who worries about model uncertainty (inaddition to market risk) and seeks robust decisions along thelines of Anderson, Hansen, and Sargent (2002). In accordancewith max-min expected utility, a robust investor insures againstsome endogenous worst case. I first show that robustness dramaticallydecreases the demand for equities and is observationally equivalentto recursive preferences when removing wealth effects. Unlikestandard recursive preferences, however, robustness leads toenvironment-specific "effective" risk aversion. As an extension,I present a closed-form solution for the portfolio problem ofa robust Duffie-Epstein-Zin investor. Finally, robustness increasesthe equilibrium equity premium and lowers the risk-free rate.Reasonable parameters generate a 4% to 6% equity premium.     

Option Pricing on Stocks in Mergers and Acquisitions

We develop an arbitrage‐free and complete framework to price options on the stocks of firms involved in a merger or acquisition deal allowing for the possibility that the deal might be called off at an intermediate time, creating discontinuous impacts on the stock prices. Our model can be a normative tool for market makers to quote prices for options on stocks involved in such deals and also for traders to control risks associated with such deals using traded options. The results of tests indicate that the model performs significantly better than the Black–Scholes model in explaining observed option prices.     

对一种n期期权的定价讨论

卢卡斯（1978）的模型表现出了许多资本资产定价模型的共有特征。它们应用各种形式的随机最优增长模型以产生消费的最优随机过程。这一随机过程可被重新解释为具有相同的偏好和技术的动态随机竞争经济的均衡消费过程。这种均衡消费过程与以下将要提到的欧拉方程（文中（3）式）的某种形式结合起来,以计算所分析的资产的价格。     

Option Prices Under Generalized Pricing Kernels

In this paper analytical solutions for European option prices are derived for a class of rather general asset specific pricing kernels (ASPKs) and distributions of the underlying asset. Special cases include underlying assets that are lognormally or log-gamma distributed at expiration date T. These special cases are generalizations of the Black and Scholes (1973) option pricing formula and the Heston (1993) option pricing formula for non-constant elasticity of the ASPK. Analytical solutions for a normally distributed and a uniformly distributed underlying are also derived for the class of general ASPKs. The shape of the implied volatility is analyzed to provide further understanding of the relationship between the shape of the ASPK, the underlying subjective distribution and option prices. The properties of this class of ASPKs are also compared to approaches used in previous empirical studies. JEL Classification: G12, G13, C65 Erik Lüders is an assistant professor at Laval University and a visiting scholar at the Stern School of Business, New York University.