美国财政悬崖:成因、影响及启示

财政悬崖问题是美国近年来财政收支严重失衡的集中表现,它根源于美国经济政策的失误与经济增长内生动力的不足,实质是本轮全球金融危机背景下,美国主权债务问题持续恶化的延续。美国财政悬崖问题将延缓美国及世界经济复苏的步伐,导致主要发达国家财政赤字的货币化,加剧全球金融市场波动,并使发展中国家面临日益严峻的国际贸易环境。中国应该以此为鉴,通过提高经济增长的内生动力,稳步推进人民币国际化,优化海外资产的投融资结构,努力解决地方政府债务问题等措施,为国民经济的可持续发展奠定坚实的基础。     

美国财政悬崖及对我国的影响

近日,关于美国"财政悬崖"的消息遍布各大媒体,根据美国国会预算办公室(CBO)的最新估计,财政悬崖可能拖累2013财年(2012年10月1日至2013年9月30日)美国实际GDP增长约0.5个百分点,将严重冲击美国经济复苏,2013年四季度美国失业率将超过9%。欧债危机还在继续发酵,如果美国又陷入衰退,必定会对东亚生产网络带来更大冲击,中国及其他新兴市场国家的出口将更加乏力。实际上,最新的海关数据已经表现出市场的担忧:2012年11月,我国出口同比仅增长2.9%,远低于1～10月11.6%的出口增长率。且11月我国对美国出口增长一2.6%,是鲜有的负增长,远低于10月的11%。尽管我国11月的宏观数据     

美国是否会跌落“财政悬崖”?

美国大选刚刚落幕,奥巴马赢取连任结果公布后不到24小时,美国股市即大幅下挫,创一年来最大跌幅,同日欧洲股市也以大跌收场,国际油价跌幅更大;次日亚太主要股市也纷纷回落,多个市场的跌幅逾1%甚至2%。奥巴马来不及回味连任的喜悦,就迎来了市场的当头警告。尽管奥巴马成功连任,但国会参众两院分别由两党控制的分裂格局依然未变。市场担忧,新政府正面临更加紧     

美国或将陷入“财政悬崖”挑战

"财政悬崖"最主要的特征是减税政策的结束、大规模开支削减计划开启,换言之即是"财政悬崖"将导致美国财政赤字大幅减少何谓美国"财政悬崖""财政悬崖",即美国到今年年底、明年年初因为新的开支计划和减税政策到期而可能导致的巨大财政缺口。由于金融危机期间的许多财政刺激计划将在2012年陆续退出(即便得以延长也只能至2013年初)。按照现行法律,2012年底美国经济将面临一轮规模空前的财政紧缩,包括:布什时期减     

美国是否会跌落“财政悬崖”？

美国大选刚刚落幕,奥巴马赢取连任结果公布后不到24小时,美国股市即大幅下挫,创一年来最大跌幅,同日欧洲股市也以大跌收场,国际油价跌幅更大;次日亚太主要股市也纷纷回落,多个市场的跌幅逾1%甚至2%。奥巴马来不及回味连任的喜悦,就迎来了市场的当头警告。尽管奥巴马成功连任,但国会参众两院分别由两党控制的分裂格局依然未变。     

“财政悬崖”有多悬

“财政悬崖”是用来形容美国2013年1月开始的强制性削减开支和增加税收的一个术语。这将给美国政府带来一道难题：如果减支增收的法律生效,可能推动美国经济陷入双底衰退;但如果通过新的立法取消减支增收,则可能使美国面临与欧元区相同的危机风险．     

当金融市场面临“财政悬崖”

11月初美国大选尘埃落定,现任总统奥巴马成功连任。但对于他的获胜,金融市场并未表现出如释重负的欢欣,反而以决胜前一天美国股市的一场大跌——美国三大股指当天全线下跌超过2％——显示出对美国将在年底面临“财政悬崖”的担忧。作为全球最大的经济体,如果美同岗跌落“财政悬崖”而陷入衰退,仍然脆弱的全球经济复苏则很可能迅速夭折,特别是在欧洲经济继续陷入衰退、中国经济放缓刚刚显示持稳迹象的情况下。     

正视美国“财政悬崖”的预警效应

美国"财政悬崖"危机再起,警示我国财政金融风险不可小觑。本文以我国经济运行为背景,在客观地评价了积极财政政策的同时,提出在加快经济民主化进程中,回归稳健财政赤字比"赤字幻觉"更重要,要把拉动内需作为助推经济增长的引擎,使企业科技创新真正成为增加财政收入的源泉,着力防控银行信用过度扩张危及国家财政安全。     

欧债危机＋美国“财政悬崖” 欧美经济现新险情

欧元区内部矛盾激化拖延两年多的欧债危机,迄今解决无方,而且一再升级与扩大,经济规模＂大到不能救＂的西班牙与意大利已陷入债务风暴之中,其中西班牙十年期债息一度升至七厘五的历史高位,西班牙根本难以承受如此偏高融资成本,最终结果就是向欧盟全面求助。然而,欧盟现有救助机制未必有足够财力拯救国债总额近万亿欧元的西班牙,届时金融市场势将出现大震荡,     

Vertical fiscal imbalances and fiscal performance in advanced economies

The paper examines empirically, using a measure of “vertical fiscal imbalances” (VFI), the relationship between overall fiscal performance and the financing structure of subnational governments. It presents stylized facts regarding the size, evolution, and components of measured VFI using data from 28 OECD countries. On average, the general government fiscal balance is found to improve by 1 percent of GDP for each 10 percentage point reduction in VFI.     

Unemployment fiscal multipliers

We estimate the effects of fiscal policy on the labor market in US data. An increase in government spending of 1 percent of GDP generates output and unemployment multipliers, respectively, of about 1.2 percent (at one year) and 0.6 percentage points (at the peak). Each percentage point increase in GDP produces an increase in employment of about 1.3 million jobs. Total hours, employment and the job finding probability all rise, whereas the separation rate falls. A standard neoclassical model augmented with search and matching frictions in the labor market largely fails in reproducing the size of the output multiplier whereas it can produce a realistic unemployment multiplier but only under a special parameterization. Extending the model to strengthen the complementarity in preferences, to include unemployment benefits, real wage rigidity and/or debt financing with distortionary taxation only worsens the picture. New Keynesian features only marginally magnify the size of the multipliers. When complementarity is coupled with price stickiness, however, the magnification effect can be large.     

Local fiscal equalisation based on fiscal capacity: the case of Austria

This paper deals with local fiscal equalisation in Austria. The system of intergovernmental relations in Austria includes different regulations in order to equalise differences in the fiscal capacity of the municipalities. This leads to so‐called ‘compensation effects’, because additional revenues from a local government's own tax are (at least partly) compensated by losses from equalisation grants. This paper carries out a detailed analysis of these compensation effects. It is shown that they create strong fiscal disincentives for the local governments: on average, 55 per cent of additional revenues from the communal tax (which is the most important of a local government's own taxes) are compensated by losses of equalisation grants. In extreme cases, local governments can lose up to 144 per cent of the additional tax yields collected. These local governments would be better off if they made no effort to increase their tax base.     

折现率估算的误区解析

折现率在收益现值法中的使用是不可缺少的,但在评估实务中普遍存在不规范使用的问题,如对所谓的行业净资产收益率或股权投资回报率的误用.该文提出应采用全投资回报率为折现率,并提出通过企业全部资产的加权平均投资回报率折算无形资产的投资回报率.     

Zoning and fiscal interdependencies

Although there are strong theoretical reasons to regard optimal zoning and fiscal policies as simultaneous decisions, most empirical studies have focused on one type of decision or the other. Even fewer attempts have been made to study interdependencies between competing towns in their selection of zoning and fiscal policies. If these interdependencies are prevalent, autonomous local governments may pursue zoning, taxing, and spending policies that are locally rational but socially inefficient. In this study, an optimization model of the local economy is used to illustrate the nature of these interdependencies and to specify an appropriate empirical test. Data from 164 Connecticut townships are used to estimate the empirical model.     

走出反倾销认识的五个误区

随着关税的逐渐降低和非关税壁垒的消除，我国的对外贸易将会大幅度增加，我国企业受到国外反倾销指控及处国产品倾销损害威胁也会随之增加。反倾销诉讼已成为我国企业参与国际竞争必须研究的新课题。从反倾销案例的分析，可以我现人们对反倾销认识的五个误区。     

The role of the state in fiscal theory

This paper traces the nexus between fiscal theory and the theory of state as it emerged from the close of the 18th century to date. Four variants of the fiscal state are distinguished. First, there is the classical view of the service state, needed to adjust for externality-based market failure, and to do so to approximate a market solution. Next, there is the welfare state, designed to correct the market-determined state of distribution, based on what society views as a fair or optimal pattern. Attention then turns to the communal model, where individuals recognize communal as well as private concerns. Finally, note is taken of the flawed state, where maximizing behavior of governmental agents shifts attention from market to policy failure. The changing nexus between state and fiscal theory, and its place in various fiscal traditions is noted.Paper presented at the first Plenary Session on Historical and Theoretical Perspectives on the Role of the State, IIPF Congress, Lisbon, August 21, 1995.     

纳税筹划的几个误区

纳税筹划的误区是:纳税筹划的根本目的是为了少交税;纳税筹划主要应在税法上下功夫,弄懂税法的优惠,然后充分利用;纳税筹划最主要得是钻税法的漏洞,纳税筹划最好的方法是避税和偷逃税.经济活动之间不可避免地存在着一定的交叉重复,因此,纳税筹划应从整体来考虑:进行纳税筹划的纳税人应用全面的眼光准确衡量税负水平;筹划方案应具有可操作性;纳税人应将筹划方案放到总体经营决策中加以考虑;纳税人应考虑企业的长远发展目标,应从企业发展的战略高度来认识纳税筹划方案.