The Effects of Regulation and Regulatory Risk in the UK Electricity Distribution Industry

This paper examines the impact of regulation of the UK electricity industry on expectations of investors in the shares of regional electricity companies (RECs). This is done using event-study methodology where the movements of RECs' returns are compared to movements in the stock market as a whole. We then test for the presence of regulatory risk by modelling the conditional volatility of equity returns before and after 30 significant regulatory events using an ARCH process. Our results show no evidence of regulatory capture in this sector but suggest that regulatory risk does exist.     

Case study of agri-environmental payments: The United Kingdom

The Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESA) program, when launched in the United Kingdom (UK) in 1986, was the first agri-environmental program in the European Union (EU). This program grew to a total of 43 designated ESA schemes in the UK as a whole, 22 of which were in England. A variety of agri-environmental payments programs were created to supplement and complement the ESA schemes in years to follow. The most prominent of these in England was the Countryside Stewardship Scheme (CSS), established in 1991. The CSS was available to farmers outside the ESAs, and like the ESA program, was intended to protect valued landscapes and habitats and to improve public enjoyment of the countryside. By 2003, over 10% of England's agricultural land was enrolled in either ESA or CSS agreements. These voluntary agreements were long-term contracts (usually for 10 years) between the government and farmers to provide environmental services. Several major evaluations of the ESA program and the CSS were conducted over the years, and the results of many of those evaluations and the lessons derived are synthesized and summarized in this article. Both the ESA program and the CSS proved to be generally effective in enrolling many farmers in the entry-level contract tiers, thereby halting or slowing degradation of rural landscape and other environmental features. However, the schemes did not generally offer sufficient economic incentives to attract high levels of enrollment in the intensive farming areas. Also, the schemes were limited in their success in enrolling farmers in higher payment tiers, tiers that required more substantial changes in farming practices. The high crop and livestock-related payments received by farmers under the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) contributed to the disincentives to participate, especially in higher tiers. Following the latest (2003) reforms of the EU's CAP, England's ESA program and CSS are being replaced by a new, consolidated package of schemes that draws on lessons learned over the past 15-20 years with these two flagship programs.     

The Cost of Obesity in the United Kingdom

Summary

This study provides economic information on the costs of obesity in the UK using a modified method of attributable risk to establish the full resource implications of treating obesity and associated diseases. Prevalence estimates of obesity, defined as a Body Mass Index (BMI) greater than 30 kg/m², together with estimates of the risk of obesity-related diseases relative to a BMI range close to ideal, are used as the basis of the costing. The total costs of treating obesity and its related diseases are estimated at £355 million (in 1995 prices). The total costs of treating obesity directly, estimated at £3.8 million, are dominated by the costs arising from the treatment of attributable diseases, estimated at £351 million.     

环境管制与工业生产率增长：东部地区的实证研究

本文运用曼奎斯特—卢恩伯格生产率指数,测度了2000-2007年东部工业在考虑SO2和不考虑SO2排放情况下的效率、生产率增长及其成份的增长率,并且估计出了环境管制给企业带来的成本。结果发现：上海和广东处于生产前沿;考虑SO2排放后,生产率增长率下降;天津的生产率增长、技术效率增长率和技术进步率都最高,北京环境污染管制的成本最高;FD I投入、国有企业比重、资本劳动比、废气治理投资和环境管制成本对生产率增长都有显著影响。     

The Liverpool macroeconomic model of the United Kingdom

The paper describes the Liverpool Model, a rational expectations model of the UK economy used for forecasting since March 1980. The model is of the ‘new classical’ type, in that all markets clear; in the labour market, there is a union sector with one-year nominal wage contracts but the non-union sector clears excess demands. Equilibrium (or ‘natural rate’) values of output, employment, real wages, etc are endogenously determined. In- and out-of-sample errors, a full set of simulations, and a complete listing are included. The interim experience of the model as a test bed for rational expectations methods is ‘far from discouraging’.     

The demand for alcohol in the United Kingdom

Using the AIDS model, we show that there exists for the UK a stable long-run relationship between expenditure shares on beer, cider, spirits and wine, alcohol prices, total alcohol expenditure and a range of non-economic variables relating to advertising, licensing, the employment, social class and demographic characteristics of consumers, and climate. Our estimates of key price and income elasticities generally lie between those found from other time-series studies (which exclude most of these non-economic variables) and those found from cross-section studies (which generally include them). However, the restrictions required for separability, homegeneity and symmetry (although not those for perfect price aggregation) are decisively rejected.     

An application of maximum entropy estimation: the demand for meat in the United Kingdom

In many econometric studies of demand relationships the design matrix is frequently subject to severe collinearity. In this paper the Generalized Maximum Entropy methodology is introduced and used to estimate a set of demand relationships. The ability of Generalized Maximum Entropy to estimate economic relationships that are typically subject to a high degree of collinearity among the explanatory variables, thus potentially causing traditional methods of estimation to be unreliable, is explained. The results derived by this alternative method of estimation, for a UK meat demand data set, are analysed and examined. The potential for this emerging estimation methodology is discussed.     

An econometric analysis of choice of mortgage design in the United Kingdom

The research seks to better understand the choice of mortgage design by households in the United Kingdom. Family Expenditures Survey data is used to test the various hypotheses on the determinants of the choice between an endowment and a repayment mortgage. A bivariate probit model with sample selection is estimated to detect any likely selectivity bias arising out of tenure choice. The theoretical modelling reflects the behaviour of liquidity constrained households comparing comparative periodic mortgage costs and households concerned with the oppurtunity cost of equity in a property. Actual choices appear to reflect the impact of nominal interest rates, income and cash flow considerations. There is little direct evidence that the choice of mortgage repayment vehicle is motivated by portfolio design. There is some tentative evidence of supply side pressure on endowment mortgage take up.     

The demand for money in an open economy: the United Kingdom

Most previous studies have estimated the demand for money without paying too much attention to developments in the foreign exchange markets. In light of the fact that any development abroad and in the foreign exchange markets could have implications for domestic stabilization, we make an attempt to incorporate such developments into the demand for money in the United Kingdom. More precisely, after incorporating a measure of real effective exchange rate of the British Pound into a dynamic money demand function, we estimated it for the UK using quarterly data over 1973–87 period. By relying upon the Akaike' Final Prediction Error criteria to select the optimum number of lags, it is shown that in addition to income and interest rate, the real effective exchange rate exerts significant effect on the UK demand for money in the short run as well as long run.     

Incentive regulation in the United Kingdom and the United States: Some lessons

Summary and Conclusions This paper has reviewed the approach to incentive regulation in the United Kingdom and the United States. The United Kingdom approach has typically relied on pure PCR, incorporating much sharper incentives for efficiency and lower transactions costs, but it makes the company more of a hostage to the regulator. The United States approach, which is grounded or even mired in the legal system, gives up efficiency incentives in an attempt to avoid making the companies the hostages of regulatory reneging.²⁷ The papers in this Issue illustrate the broad scope of incentive regulation, from the purer forms of PCR to a number of variations and mixtures of PCR with other forms of regulation. The interesting theoretic results and the importance of achieving practical solutions in incentive regulation underscore the importance of the problems and approaches raised in this Issue.     

The determinants of student loan take-up in the United Kingdom

Survey data are used to identify the variables which influence the decision of undergraduates at a British university to take up subsidized loans for maintenance support. Inferences are drawn about the existence and magnitude of any gender and class biases in the willingness to enter a debt arrangement with the Student Loans Company. It is established that women are significantly less likely to take out a loan of this kind than are men, but that low parental occupational status does not deter students from taking out a loan. There is some evidence that vocational relevance of the subject read positively influences student' willingness to enter a debt arrangement     

Restructuring of the Hungarian Electricity Industry

Restructuring the monopolistic, state-owned, obsolete and polluting utility industries of post-socialist economies poses a challenge for the utility deregulation wave travelling around the world. Utility restructuring in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region is unique from several perspectives, including the domination of foreign capital vs. national resources as the only feasible vehicle for a drastic change in the industry and the ambitious goals of harmonisation with the EU liberalisation schedule to accelerate accession. It is also widely expected that deregulation will help bring down world-record high energy intensities in these economies. Hungary has been the pioneer among economies in transition in unbundling, deregulating and privatising the utility industries and taking the first steps towards EU-conforming market liberalisation within less than half a decade. The first stages of privatisation and restructuring have been declared a success story in the Western media. However, what is a success story from a foreign perspective may be seen differently from other viewpoints. The article describes the process of utility restructuring in Hungary and examines its impact from the economic, environmental and policy perspectives. The article also compares the pioneer Hungarian deregulation with other CEE countries' restructuring of their energy sectors. However, the lessons to be learned from the Hungarian electricity industry restructuring are not only vital for other economies in transition but are often universally applicable.     

The Long Run Growth and Productivity Performance of the United Kingdom

This paper examines Britain's long run growth and productivity performance since the late nineteenth century, taking an international comparative perspective and disaggregating by sector. Britain was richer than the United States and Germany in 1870 largely because of high levels of labour productivity in services and agriculture rather than in industry, together with a highly favourable structure, particularly a small share of the labour force in agriculture. By 1990, the productivity gap in manufacturing had not grown bigger. Rather, the deterioration in Britain's overall comparative labour productivity position has been concentrated in services and agriculture, together with the effects of structural change, particularly the later shift of labour out of agriculture in the United States and Germany.     

The impact of speculation on house prices in the United Kingdom

When house prices are expected to rise, the representative house mover has an incentive to secure his purchase price (i.e. exchange contracts) on the ‘new’ house before exchanging contracts on the sale price on his ‘old’ house. If all house-movers adopt this stance, the imbalance between buyers and sellers causes a self-fulfilling speculative price bubble. Transactions costs do not represent a barrier to such speculation in the house market, as such costs can be considered as being sunk costs for first-time buyers and owner-occupiers intending to move for non-speculative reasons. This idea is formalised and empirical evidence is presented which suggests that speculation is a significant determinant of house prices in the United Kingdom.     

基于价格上限的输配电价格管制模型改进研究

由于输配电环节具有自然垄断特性,因此必须接受监管,但随着电力的市场化改革,旧有的监管机制存在一定缺陷,而基于绩效的价格管制模型又不能直接适用于我国的国情。本文提出了一种基于价格上限的价格管制改进模型,在一般价格上限模型中引入电能质量因子,从而很好地克服了该模型导致质量恶化的缺陷,提高了模型的适用性。文中还详细介绍了电能质量因子的确定问题,并对该质量因子进行了算例分析。     

Privatization and Management Incentives: Evidence from the United Kingdom

This article examines whether privatization affects managementincentives and provides an estimate of the magnitude of thechange. Using data from large firms in the United Kingdom, wefind no relationship between compensation and financial performancein state-owned firms, both before and after corporate governancereforms. In contrast, we find a strong sensitivity in privatizedfirms both immediately and in more mature privatized firms drivenlargely by stock options and shareholding. For more mature privatizedfirms, compensation and dismissal sensitivities are complementarywith our estimates, suggesting a £443,000 increase inmanagement returns for a one standard deviation improvementin firm performance. This estimated incentive intensity is higherthan in established publicly traded firms. Our results supportthe theoretical focus on incentives in the dominant theoriesof state and private ownership.     

中国房地产业宏观调控措施评价——基于Poterba住房市场模型

提高利率和开发商自有资本比例等宏观调控措施,其效应是不同的.因此,在实际的运用过程中要根据一个时期宏观调控的目标,考虑各项调控措施之间的抵消作用和叠加效应以及各项措施取得效果的快慢,使调控措施的效果达到最佳.