冷战时期美国外交战略研究——从杜鲁门主义到里根主义

冷战持续了40余年,美苏对抗贯穿了战后美国外交的方方面面,并成为美国外交的主线。自杜鲁门以后,历届美国总统无不把对苏外交作为美国外交的首要任务,因此,战后美国外交战略的全豹完全可以在其对苏外交这一斑中得到清晰的反映。考察从杜鲁门主义到里根主义的对苏政策,便能了解整个冷战时期的美国外交战略。     

"安然"没落

2001年12月2日,美国安然宣布破产.它的落败,造就了美国历史上最大的一起破产案.安然,这家曾闪耀着"资产光辉"的公司,在总裁Skilling娴熟的经营和风险管理技巧下发展壮大,成为美国最大的能源供应商.     

美国重振制造业的战略思路

针对金融危机对经济带来的危害,奥巴马就职以来提出了一系列的重振制造业的政策.美国的再工业化并不是底端制造业的回归,而是借此时机发展高端制造业.文章从战略方向、政策支持、战略主体等六个方面分析了美国重振制造业的战略思路.     

服从WTO--世贸组织"美国贸易法301条款"案评析

美国贸易法"301条款"是一个非常有名的法律,世界上鲜有其他法律的知名度堪与该法相匹敌.美国常常使用该法律,对其他国家的贸易措施进行调查,继而与其他国家进行谈判,并且威胁谈判不成就进行报复.美国的主要贸易伙伴,例如欧共体和日本,都深受其苦,对该法律有切肤之痛.所以,当欧共体就该法律在WTO中起诉美国时,有17个国家作为第三方参加了案件的审理.     

美国战略重心东移与我国策略的研究

从2011年下半年开始,美国战略重心东移的说法,或者说美国强化其亚太战略的言行引起了国际舆论广泛的关注。如今,无论从政策原则还是实际运作来看,美国战略重心东移的用意已清晰,即主导亚太、应对中国、重振美国。     

论美国银行业发展战略的新趋势

１９９８年４月，美国银行业爆发了三宗巨型合并，使美国银行的基本格局发生了重大改变，由此引出许多值得思考的问题，也给各国在世纪之交如何定位自己的金融发展战略，提出了新的课题。一、本世纪美国前四次企业大合并的历史进入２０世纪以来，美国曾经发生四次企业大兼...     

美国石油考察散记

纵观美国经济,可以看出,美国把能源摆在十分重要的战略位置。难怪许多分析家都评论说,美国发动的许多战争都是“为石油而战”。从2003年世界各国石油消费量来看,排在前六位的分别是美国、中国、日本、德国、俄罗斯和印度。美国一个国家的石油消耗就占到世界的25.1%。但排名后5位的国家每年消耗石油的总和还不如美国的多,这足以说明美国对石油的需求。     

美国商界流行"便捷"风

一位美国丈夫幽默地说：“现在找不到像美国女人这样不给老公做饭的女人了。”一位研究消费市场的专家说：“美国人是越来越懒。为孩子做三明治并不困难，但15年来，为孩子做三明治的人越来越少。”“不愿在家做饭”从一个侧面道出了年轻一代美国人生活方式的变化。     

"四出奇兵"显才华--美国年轻企业家甘布朗的经营之道

有谁相信,一位年仅26岁的美国毛头小子,凭着自己的经商奇才,从17岁起相继创办了美国汽车机械训练学校、美国汽车销售中心、美国汽车出租公司等四家享誉美国工商界的企业,成为美国企业巨子中拥有四家公司董事长头衔的最年轻"超级拳击手".他就是自诩为"专吃青春饭"、"嘴上无毛"的百万富翁--甘布朗.甘布朗的"四出奇兵",表现出他经营管理的绝招.     

美国食品"反恐"FDA拟出台新规

去年，美国国会通过了《公共健康安全及生物恐怖主义的预防及对策法案》，今年4月4日之前美国FDA(美国食品药品管理局)就相关具体规则初稿征求国内外各方的意见。由于该法案的落实必将增加全球食品贸易的负担，中国对美国的食品出口也将受到严重影响。随着该法案实施日子的逼近，中国加紧部署工作。     

US Economic Sanctions Against China: Who Gets Hurt?

The United States maintains a broad spectrum of economic sanctions against China ranging from export controls to prohibitions on certain imports. Our study finds that, although from a macroeconomic perspective, US sanctions have had no significant adverse effect on China's overall economic growth and trade between the two countries, they do have a negative impact on producers and consumers in both countries. US economic sanctions have hindered technology transfer to China and US investment in China. US restrictions on imports from China have caused deadweight losses for the US due to higher domestic production costs for import substitutes and a reduction in consumption. US export controls have hindered US exports to China and contributed to large US trade deficits with China. The export controls have also caused losses of high‐paid jobs in the United States and benefited competitors from other countries. In addition, US economic sanctions against China have had significant third‐party effects. China's diversification of imports to sources other than the United States may have a long‐term effect on US exports to China even after US economic sanctions against China are lifted.     

The Trade Effects of US Anti‐dumping Actions against China Post‐WTO Entry

Since China's entry into the WTO, US anti‐dumping (AD) actions against China have increased, particularly with respect to multiple petitions. Distinguishing between US single and multiple petitions, we examine the trade effects of US AD actions against China based on an unbalanced panel of quarterly trade data. The results show that a US single petition investigation greatly restrains US imports of the filed products from China but also causes more significant import diversion from non‐named countries. In the short run, a preliminary AD duty imposed on China via a US multiple petition not only restrains US imports of the filed products from China but also prevents trade diversion from non‐named countries. In the long run, a final AD duty on China resulting from a US multiple petition creates a larger destructive effect on China and causes US import diversion from non‐named countries. Thus, a final AD duty imposed on China following a US multiple petition not only harms China's exports but also fails to help the US achieve import substitution. Furthermore, we have been able to reveal the negative trade effect of a preliminary AD duty even in cases where the ultimate decision is not to impose a final duty.     

Global monetary policy under a dollar standard

This paper derives an optimal monetary policy in a world with a dollar standard, defined as an environment in which all traded goods prices are set in US dollars, so that exchange rate pass-through into the US price level is zero. We show that the US is essentially indifferent to exchange rate volatility, while the rest of the world places a high weight on exchange rate volatility. In a Nash equilibrium of the monetary policy game, US preferences dominate; the equilibrium is identical to one where the US alone chooses world monetary policy. Despite this, we find surprisingly that the US loses from the dollar's role as an international currency, since the absence of exchange rate pass-through leads to inefficient expenditure allocations within the US. Finally, we derive the conditions for a dollar standard to exist.     

国际贸易对中外双向投资影响的实证分析

改革开放以来尤其是我国加入世贸以来,我国国际贸易额大幅上升,与此同时,流入我国的外商直接投资和我国的对外直接投资同时迅猛地增长。那么国际贸易和双向投资之间是否存在着某种必然的相关性呢?运用计量经济学的方法对我国国际贸易额与我国双向FDI的总量关系进行实证分析,得出结论,国际贸易对我国双向FDI起着促进作用,其中,对外商直接投资促进作用较大(在99%显著水平下,每产生一亿美元的进口就会流入0.303亿美元的FDI,每产生一亿美元的出口就会流入0.208亿美元的FDI),对对外直接投资影响较小(在99%显著水平下,每产生一亿美元的贸易仅对对外投资0.003 203亿美元)。并由此提出了一些建设性的意见。     

Market Quality around Macroeconomic News Announcements: Evidence from the US and Canadian Markets

We investigate changes in market quality in the US and Canada during macroeconomic news announcements. We measure market quality in terms of returns dependence, the cost of trading, and pricing errors. Using a sample of cross‐listed stocks and macroeconomic news from both countries, we document that market quality is generally higher in the US than in Canada. The pattern of intraday serial dependence in returns reveals that it takes investors about 5 min less to react to order imbalances in the US than in Canada. We further observe that, around announcement periods, transaction costs increase more in Canada than in the US, suggesting that the US market offers better liquidity. More information is also incorporated into the US market. These results support the view that the US is a prime target for cross‐listing, and are robust to different types of assets and time specifications.     

Doha development agenda: implications for the US and world cotton markets

This study analyzed two scenarios that considered a reduction of the US aggregate measure of supports (AMS) payments by 60% over a five-year period. In the first scenario, which considered a unilateral action by the US, the targeted AMS payments reduction would require a 12% cut in the US target price and an 8% cut in the loan rate. This would lead to a 3% decline in US cotton production, a 3% rise in world cotton price, and a 26% decline in US cotton net farm income at the end of the implementation period. The second scenario analyzed the case in which the US AMS payments reduction is concomitant with multilateral tariff and subsidy eliminations from the rest of the world. Under this scenario, fewer cuts in the US loan rate and target price (i.e. 9 and 4%) were required to achieve the 60% AMS reduction because of market liberalization from the from the rest of the world. However, US cotton producers' net farm income still declined by 18%.     

Product Procurement: A Comparison of Taiwanese and US Retail Companies

The buying function of Taiwanese and US retailers differs in several areas. The consingment method of selling is very prevalent in Taiwan but rarely used in the US. Taiwanense retail buyers were found to have less buying and retail experience than their US counterparts. However, neither buying nor retail experience were found to be significantly retaled to taiwanese buyers' attitudes about product procurement. Significant differences were identified between Taiwanese and US retail buyers' attitudes about country of origin and perceived value of imported merchandise. Taiwanese buyers were found to be more likely to rely on country of origin as an information cue than their US counterparts. On the other hand, as compared to Taiwanese buyers, US buyers were found more likely to percieve foreign apparel as having value than domestically manufactured products.     

Has the Byrd Amendment Affected US Imports?

The Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act (CDSOA), also known as the Byrd Amendment, allows the US government to distribute revenues from antidumping duties to domestic firms alleging harm. Prior to the amendment these revenues were not distributed to firms. In this article, we formally test the hypothesis that the Byrd Amendment effectively provides double protection to US firms to the extent that it further restricts US imports, as argued by the EU and 11 other US trading partners. Using a rich panel of 362 US manufacturing industries for the period 1998 to 2003, we find that whether or not the Byrd Amendment restricted US imports depends crucially on the level of competitiveness in the import‐competing industry. Specifically, we find that the Byrd Amendment served to restrict imports only in industries where competition is relatively weak, while the amendment is associated with an increase in imports in more competitive industries.     

Locational Choice,Performance and the Growth of British Multinational Firms

This paper examines the role played by Canadian chartered banks in the banking crises that occurred in the United States during the period from 1870 to 1914. The particular hypothesis investigated is whether Canadian chartered banks, through their US branch offices, increased their share of total US deposits during these crisis periods because they were perceived as being relatively safer than US banks. Strong empirical support is found to support the hypothesis. This finding may help to explain the large presence of Canadian chartered banks in US financial markets. The reputation for stability that these banks earned during this period undoubtedly facilitated their expansion into the US market.     

The optimal tax on antebellum US cotton exports

The US produced about 80% of the world’s cotton in the decades prior to the Civil War. How much monopoly power did the US possess in the world cotton market and what would have been the effect of an optimal export tax? This paper estimates the elasticity of foreign demand for US cotton exports and uses the elasticity in a simple partial equilibrium model to calculate the optimal export tax and its effect on prices, trade, and welfare. The results indicate that the export demand elasticity for US cotton was about −1.7 and that the optimal export tax of about 50% would have raised US welfare by about $10 million, about 0.3% of US GDP or about 1% of the South’s GDP.